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Getting Some Retrospective: The 2011 Spartan Senior Class

Wednesday night is senior day for the Michigan State basketball team.  Basketball rosters are a lot smaller than football rosters, so we can do better than witty poems.  It's all after the jump.

Star-divide

Mike Kebler: The (Not so) Little Engine who Could--and Did

Mike Kebler as a freshman:

GOOD! JUMPER by Morgan, Raymar                  02:38  82-47  H 35
02:14 TURNOVR by Pringle, Stanley
TIMEOUT MEDIA 02:13
SUB IN : Kebler, Mike 02:13
SUB IN : Dahlman, Isaiah 02:13
SUB IN : Gray, Marquise 02:13
SUB OUT: Morgan, Raymar 02:13
SUB OUT: Lucas, Kalin 02:13
SUB OUT: Allen, Chris 02:13
MISSED JUMPER by Gray, Marquise 01:48
REBOUND (OFF) by Summers, Durrell 01:48
GOOD! LAYUP by Summers, Durrell [PNT] 01:44 84-47 H 37
REBOUND (DEF) by Gray, Marquise 01:20 MISSED JUMPER by Jones, Andrew
SUB IN : Crandell, Jonathan 01:09
SUB OUT: Gray, Marquise 01:09
GOOD! JUMPER by Kebler, Mike 00:51 86-47 H 39

Mike Kebler as a senior:

MISSED 3 PTR by Armelin, Gerald                 00:13
00:11 REBOUND (DEF) by Kebler, Mike
FOUL by Mbakwe, Trevor (P3T9) 00:11 48-51 V 3 GOOD! FT SHOT by Kebler, Mike
00:11 48-52 V 4 GOOD! FT SHOT by Kebler, Mike

Both of those are late game situations in which Kebler made the most of the opportunity presented to him.  In the first case, the situation was preceded by the Izzone chanting, "We want Keb-ler! We want Keb-ler!"  In the second case, the situation was preceded by tens of thousands of MSU fans screaming, "Pleeeeeease, for the love of God, we want to go to the NCAA Tournament! AHHHHH!" at their TVs.

Kebler got the full Sunday paper profile treatment this past week, so I won't recount the entire odyssey of his time in East Lansing.  Here's a summation in numbers, though: Prior to last season's game at Penn State--the 95th game for which Kebler had put on an MSU basketball uniform--he had never appeared in a game for more than 5 minutes.  Starting with that game, in which he was the only MSU guard who could stay in front of Talor Battle, Kebler has crossed that PT threshold 20 times.  The last 9 of those appearances (which have come consecutively) have all been double-digit affairs.

Over the past four games, Mike Kebler is MSU's third leading scorer (with 20 points, edging out Appling with 19 and Summers and Payne with 18).  For the season, Kebler actually leads the team in offensive rating (albeit with a miniscule usage rate).  It's not a good thing that MSU has been in the position that's required the team to rely on Kebler to be such a major contributor.  But it's a very good thing that he was there to be relied on.

Not bad  for a guy who came in with a level of expectations such that no one thought about redshirting him as a freshman.  (Not that you can blame anyone.  We're talking about a player who averaged 5 points/game as a high school junior.)  He'd have been a great asset to help bring along all the freshman guards coming in next year.  (How about a grad assistantship?)

Durrell Summers: Exhilaration and Exasperation

To state the obvious: Durrell Summers has had a brutal senior season.  His scoring average is actually up slightly from last season (11.9 vs. 11.3), but he's only scored more than 13 points in a game once since January 8.  His offensive rating is down below 100.  He's hit just 13 of his last 50 field goal attempts.

I don't think anyone should pretend to know exactly why things have gone as far south as they have for Summers this year.  Maybe off-the-court stuff has been a factor.  Maybe the nature of the offense, without the balance of last year's team, has allowed defenses to key on him.  Maybe it's just a matter of shots not falling for a guy who's mainly a jump-shooter in the half-court offense (regardless of what we'd like him to be).  There's been a lack of effort at times, but I think that been more a response to a lack of success than a cause of it; by all accounts (including Tom Izzo's) he's continued to put in the work behind the scenes.  More than likely, it's been a combination of all those things.

Summers hasn't handled adversity in an ideal manner.  The question, I guess, is how high a standard you're going to hold a 21-year old college student to.  The TOC writing staff has taken the approach that he very likely feels bad enough about the way things have gone on without us piling on.

Anyway, the point here is to look back at the full four years these guys have put in as Spartans.  And Summers has had some pretty dandy moments:

  • 15 points in a 3-point win over Purdue in the second Big Ten game of his career.
  • A four-game stretch in conference play as a sophomore in which he scored 77 points to help push MSU into the lead in the Big Ten title race even as Raymar Morgan went down with a lengthy illness.
  • Later that season, this:

  • 94 points in five NCAA Tournament games as a junior, without which the program's eighth Final Four banner would not hang from the Breslin rafters.
  • Key three-pointers, despite game-long shooting slumps, late in wins over Washington and Minnesota--MSU's two best wins away from home this season and two reasons an NCAA bid remains a likelihood at this point.

Durrell Summers' college career has been a roller coaster ride.  But, keep in mind, that the plunges have only been so steep because the peaks were so high.

Kalin Lucas: A Big Player Filling Big Footsteps

Michigan State is a tough place to be an all-conference point guard.  The standards are pretty high: a guy who helped transform the game of basketball and a guy who helped transform a basketball program--both of whom won national titles in the process.

Before we talk about the legend/intangibles side of the ledger, let's go to the numbers.  Lucas v. Cleaves.  (I do think you have to put Magic in his own category.  He was a once-in-a-lifetime talent, and the 1979 team exists as something of an island in the history of the MSU basketball program.)

CleavesLucas
Games 123 135
Points 1,541 1,886
Assists 816 536
Points/Game 12.5 14.0
Assists/Game 6.6 4.0
     
Avg Poss% 27.9 25.5
Avg Off Rating 101.0 108.7
2pt FG% 45.4 44.6
3pt FG% 31.3 37.1
FT% 73.8 79.2
FT Rate 32.4 40.2
Avg Assist% 42.0 27.1
Avg TO% 27.3 17.9
Avg Steal% 2.9 2.1
     
First-team All Big Ten 3 2
Big Ten POTY 1 1
First-team All American 1 0
     
Big Ten Titles 3 2
Final Fours 2 2
NCAA Champs 1 0

 

Focusing on the pure stats, Lucas holds his own, and then some.  Cleaves was the superior passer by a wide margin.  But Lucas has been the better shooter--both from the free throw line and from 3-point range--and turns the ball over much less regularly than Cleaves did.  Overall, Lucas has clearly been the superior offensive performer from a statistical standpoint.

Of course, Cleaves also had to take on a larger role in the offense early in his career, and he was a superior defender.  Lucas has always been nondescript as a defender--neither a liability nor a substantial strength, whereas Cleaves was a difference maker on defense.

Ultimately, though, two things set Cleaves apart.  First, he was the quintessential Tom Izzo leader: driven, vocal, and emotional.  Lucas' drive has never been questioned (witness what he's done to keep this team afloat this year, even coming off a major injury), but his personality has never jived with the Izzo model.  That's created an unfair perception in my view--people can lead in different ways--but it is what it is.  Second, Cleaves got that "1" in the final row of the table above.

You can argue that the 2009 team's NCAA run was actually more impressive than the 2000 team's from a pure quality-of-opponent standpoint.  The 2009 team beat a 3-seed and two 1-seeds before succumbing to one of the most dominant teams of the last decade in the national championship game, while the 2000 team beat an 8-seed and a 5-seed in the Final Four.  But that's ultimately just a technical footnote.  A ring is a ring, and a banner is a banner.  Lucas has done as much as you can do in a college career without winning a national championship, but that will nonetheless be his missing trump card in the "Who's the greatest?" debate.

In a world where Mateen Cleaves's MSU career doesn't exist, though, Kalin Lucas would be in a league of his own in the annals of MSU basketball--a four-year starter who packed in a plethora of clutch moments.

(And, yes, I know: In a world where Cleaves as a Spartan doesn't exist, who knows what else from the Tom Izzo era exists.  Chalk up another X in the "intangibles" column for Cleaves.  On the other hand, you can argue that the program's mini-resurgence under Lucas [remember that Big Ten title drought we used to obsess over?] has helped create two upcoming top-notch recruiting classes that may not have come together otherwise.)

Two of the best such moments:

 

When asked earlier this week, Tom Izzo would only say that Lucas has "put himself in the conversation" for a banner raising.  I think he was playing coy.  When Lucas' career is over 4+ games from now, he will almost certainly rank as the program's fifth leading scorer (he's 28 behind Jay Vincent) and has a shot to rank in the top five in assists, as well (19 to catch Travis Walton; 25 to catch Mark Montgomery).  Those statistical achievements, combined with the numerical indicators of team success we'll get to in a moment, are fully banner-worthy.

In Closing

Kebler, Summers, and Lucas currently own:

  • 49 regular season Big Ten wins
  • Two Big Ten championships
  • 11 NCAA Tournament wins
  • Two Final Four appearances

Only a few other classes of Spartan seniors--all of them ending between 2000 and 2002--can match those cumulative accomplishments.  As disappointing as this final year has been, it's been a fantastic four years for these three Spartans.

Comment 30 comments  |  2 recs  | 

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Well done

I look forward to these three walking off the Breslin floor tomorrow with their heads held high, to standing O’s from a sellout crowd.

by MSUDersh on Mar 1, 2011 8:35 PM CST reply actions  

I think you mean 2009, not 2010.

Great post by the way, but if I said “great post” every time it was true on here, I would develop carpal tunnel syndrome.

by SpartanBoiler on Mar 1, 2011 8:39 PM CST reply actions  

He, more than any Spartan in the Izzo era, defies statistics.

by SpartanBoiler on Mar 1, 2011 9:26 PM CST up reply actions  

Another intriguing parallel though...

Lucas has probably been the key figure in MSU’s defiance of statistics (efficiency margin) over the last two seasons.

By efficiency margin, MSU was only the fourth best team in the B10 in 2010, trailing OSU, Purdue, and Wisconsin. MSU won close games, most notably against Minnesota and UM, both of which were finished by Lucas.

This season MSU has a negative efficiency margin in conference (-.05), lower than everyone but Iowa, Indiana, and Northwestern. But MSU still has a shot at a winning record (only B10 team outside this year’s big three with a shot at that), and a huge amount of that is big performances by Lucas down the stretch against Illinois and Minnesota.

Cleaves defied an individual statistical failing; Lucas defied a team’s statistical failing. Both of them are just plain winners.

by njd on Mar 1, 2011 9:41 PM CST up reply actions  

In baseball, they says that one-run games are flukes. Over time – whether that’s a year or a few years – you’ll win about half. Some teams have great seasons because they win a lot of one-run games that year and then swing the other way the next.

Given the nature of the game, I doubt such a stat exists with basketball – but it is also due to winners like Lucas and Cleaves.

by SpartanBoiler on Mar 1, 2011 9:56 PM CST up reply actions  

I’ve been curious for a while about a basketball corollary for the Pythagorean winning percentage developed for baseball. Somebody smarter than me must have developed this, right? If not, sssshhh….that’s how the TOC writers will become wildly famous and, uh, wealthy.

by njd on Mar 1, 2011 11:09 PM CST up reply actions  

It's out there.

KenPom has it available on the ratings page. It’s the ‘pyth’ column and, KJ can correct me if I’m wrong, but the exponents are somewhere around 11 to 11.5 where as in baseball, the ‘ideal’ exponent came out around 1.82 (though, that’s just the quick-and-dirty Pyth, there are other more complicated ones in baseball).

by Mike Rogers on Mar 1, 2011 11:19 PM CST up reply actions  

Thanks for the link

I probably should have know where to look, eh? ;)

by njd on Mar 1, 2011 11:44 PM CST up reply actions  

Much-needed

It has been frustrating as hell to watch these guys this year, but only because of how amazing they’ve been to this point. Following last season, I don’t think I could have ever predicted how conspicuous Raymar’s absence would be this season.

by nickexperience on Mar 1, 2011 9:10 PM CST reply actions  

I'll be proud to be sporting the Kalin jersey in the Izzone tomorow

He’s added quite a bit to the enjoyment of my time here at MSU

by one23 on Mar 1, 2011 11:32 PM CST reply actions  

I'd lean no, but it's close.

To get your number retired, you need to do more than just be the best player on a good team. For me, general principles (evaluated case-by-case, this is just a rough baseline) are that you should meet one of these:

- major contributor for multiple Final Fours/conference titles or a national title
- the key guy on a Final Four/conference title team
- transcendent performances while carrying a weaker team

Neitzel’s teams never won the Big Ten. One surprise Final Four run, but he was not the key player in that run (he was 7th in minutes that year). He carried the ‘07 team to the tournament just about on his own, but I’m not sure that year would qualify as “transcendent”. It’s not a ridiculous argument, but I’d put him just short.

I've got this terrible pain in all the diodes down my left-hand side.
Bradley-Terry rankings for college football and basketball: because there aren't enough computer rankings already.

by SpartanDan on Mar 2, 2011 12:12 AM CST up reply actions  

Spartan jerseys that should be retired..

Charlie Bell,
Drew Neitzel,
Kalin lucas… in that order.

Thanks to a gr8 senior class..I remember watching Lucas, Summers in the Michigan high school bball games…and they did not let us down even though this year has been tough.But collectively, all the seniors in this class have made a mark and I wish Chris Allen was here today..

by spartynation on Mar 2, 2011 7:56 AM CST reply actions  

I sort of agree

…but at the rate of 4/decade they will run out of numbers eventually. Maybe that’s a stupid thing to concern myself with.

by Crosseyed on Mar 2, 2011 8:43 AM CST up reply actions  

Numbers

I still don’t understand why the NCAA requires each number in a jersey to be 0-5. I know that a ref only has 5 fingers per hand and this makes it easier to signal who commits a foul, but the NBA allows all numbers and those refs have still managed to call fouls without causing horrible confusion at the scorer’s table.

"You can look at the dinosaur that weighs you down or you can look at the big pot of gold (and) try to say, 'You know what? I'm going to try to live up to expectations.' " -Tom Izzo, Iron Mountain Philosopher

by Ducking Delvon on Mar 2, 2011 10:48 AM CST up reply actions  

C'mon.

Do you really want to have guys like Hightower etal. worried about something else during a basketball game?

by MSULaxer27 on Mar 2, 2011 3:42 PM CST up reply actions  

Nice post BUT...

“Lucas has done as much as you can do in a college career without winning a national championship, but that will nonetheless be his missing trump card in the “Who’s the greatest?” debate."

I hope this proves to be a false statement! Come on now, the season isn’t over. Stranger things have happened. An 8 seed Nova squad won it in the 80s without the talent that MSU has.

If Sparty’s fans don’t have faith in their team, who will? I know I’ll have them in my bracket’s Final Four.

by Crmockridge on Mar 2, 2011 8:03 AM CST reply actions  

Career Wins

The seniors also currently own 102 wins.

For some perspective, during the Purdue game last night, they showed the stat that Moore and Johnson have the most wins ever at Purdue (no slouch of a program) with 105.

"You can look at the dinosaur that weighs you down or you can look at the big pot of gold (and) try to say, 'You know what? I'm going to try to live up to expectations.' " -Tom Izzo, Iron Mountain Philosopher

by Ducking Delvon on Mar 2, 2011 8:11 AM CST reply actions  

Purdue and the 22 regular season Big Ten Basketball Championships of which they are so proud

are notorious for disappearing during the postseason.

During the NCAA era (1939 – present) Purdue has won ten B10 titles and appeared in 2 Final Fours…Final Four runs (in the modern era when the tourney expanded to 65) can add a bunch of extra wins to a class

Purdue is among the most overrated “great” programs there are (Wake Forest, Illinois, Missouri and Kansas are others).

by MSULaxer27 on Mar 2, 2011 3:54 PM CST up reply actions  

Lucas definitely deserves to have his jersey retired

He’s had a great career – the numbers speak for themselves, and he’s also been clutch in late game situations. I’m not saying he’s our greatest ever but he’s in the conversation (excluding, of course, Magic who was a transcendent player at both the college and pro levels).

Yes, Cleaves has the National Title trump card, and he’s obvioulsy Izzo’s all time favorite. However, consider what Cleaves had to work with – three players that went on to have respectable NBA careers (Richardson, Bell, and Peterson), a couple of big guys that were as good as, if not better than, anyone we have on the team at present, with the possible exception of Green (Granger, Hutson). Cleaves had better complimentary players around him than Lucas has ever had.

I guess Suton is in the same league as Hutson, and Morgan was probably close to as good as Peterson (although not quite) – the 2009 team was close in terms of overall talent, but probably still not quite as good. And that team lost to one of the most dominant teams of the decade in the national title game. I guess what I’m saying is that if you took Lucas and put him on the ‘99-’00 team that team probably still wins the national title. He’s one of the greats to play for us.

by TheCrestedHelm on Mar 2, 2011 8:57 AM CST reply actions  

No doubt his # should be retired

MSU would have two less B10 championships and final fours without him. (I know he wasn’t on the court for the whole thing last year, but we likely do not get past NM State or Maryland without him)

luttez pour les seuls couleurs, vert et blanc

by vert_et_blanc on Mar 2, 2011 10:47 AM CST reply actions  

One more

I think you needed to fix it twice?

“The 2010 team beat a 3-seed and two 1-seeds”

by Eric H. on Mar 2, 2011 10:50 AM CST reply actions  

What a great ride!

Thanks Kalin, Durrell and Mike.

by MSU1978 on Mar 2, 2011 11:57 AM CST reply actions  

I'd like a stat on picked up dribbles...

Mateen had handles that were beyond the boxscore. Lucas is a fantastic point guard, clutch performer and has shown a ton in the second half of the season. Cleaves and Kalin are comparable, statistically, but if I have to choose a point guard, It’s Mo, all day. Not just in terms of leadership, but in terms of being ahead of everyone else on the court. He had more turnovers, but State was a machine. I’ll take him as a defender, too. Kalin has the more accurate shot, for sure. Mateen could be 1-for-11 and make that game winning shot, though.

by Philip Zaroo on Mar 2, 2011 10:43 PM CST reply actions  

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