Big Ten Tournament Odds, Bradley-Terry Style


I haven't updated these in a while, but with the tournament upon us now seems like a good time: Big Ten tournament odds, similar to Pomeroy's log5 breakdowns, based on the Bradley-Terry ratings.

Basic (W-L only) Ratings

Team Qtrs Semis Final Champ
(1) OSU ---- 92.79% 82.93% 64.20%
(2) PUR ---- 79.04% 46.14% 15.65%
(3) WISC ---- 80.58% 42.53% 13.47%
(4) MICH ---- 48.09% 6.64% 1.95%
(5) ILL ---- 51.91% 7.58% 2.35%
(6) PSU 76.87% 17.53% 4.61% 0.66%
(7) MSU 80.99% 19.63% 6.39% 1.06%
(8) NW 48.18% 3.35% 1.29% 0.28%
(9) MINN 51.82% 3.85% 1.56% 0.36%
(10) IOWA 19.01% 1.33% 0.15% 0.008%
(11) IND 23.13% 1.89% 0.20% 0.011%

 

Nothing terribly shocking here, of course.

Margin-Aware Ratings

Team Qtrs Semis Final Champ
(1) OSU ---- 91.97% 78.85% 55.66%
(2) PUR ---- 86.54% 55.30% 23.81%
(3) WISC ---- 83.91% 38.48% 13.54%
(4) MICH ---- 37.81% 5.47% 1.30%
(5) ILL ---- 62.19% 12.86% 4.28%
(6) PSU 70.30% 13.41% 2.49% 0.34%
(7) MSU 76.51% 12.17% 3.34% 0.51%
(8) NW 46.77% 3.52% 1.18% 0.21%
(9) MINN 53.23% 4.52% 1.64% 0.32%
(10) IOWA 23.49% 1.29% 0.15% 0.009%
(11) IND 29.70% 2.69% 0.25% 0.017%

 

Biggest difference is that the margin-aware system views Illinois much more favorably; they've had a tendency to lose a lot of close games this year.

In This Article

Topics
Teams
X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join The Only Colors

You must be a member of The Only Colors to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at The Only Colors. You should read them.

Join The Only Colors

You must be a member of The Only Colors to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at The Only Colors. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9347_tracker