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Do teams that underachieve expectations during the regular season tend to overperform their seeds...

Do teams that underachieve expectations during the regular season tend to overperform their seeds in the tournament? Here, the evidence is more mixed. . . This year’s set of underachieving schools — like Gonzaga, Butler, Kansas State and particularly Michigan State — need to be taken on a case-by-case basis, but they are plausible picks to pull off a surprise or two.

Nate Silver in the NY Times looks at preseason expectatons as a predictor of tournament success. Since MSU has been beat up all year over their preseason ranking, at least this offers a slightly different take on it. BTW, it appears that MSU, especially in the Izzo era, has a noble tradition of regular-season underachievement (or at least pre-season over-ranking).
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