Do teams that underachieve expectations during the regular season tend to overperform their seeds in the tournament? Here, the evidence is more mixed. . . This year’s set of underachieving schools — like Gonzaga, Butler, Kansas State and particularly Michigan State — need to be taken on a case-by-case basis, but they are plausible picks to pull off a surprise or two.Nate Silver in the NY Times looks at preseason expectatons as a predictor of tournament success. Since MSU has been beat up all year over their preseason ranking, at least this offers a slightly different take on it. BTW, it appears that MSU, especially in the Izzo era, has a noble tradition of regular-season underachievement (or at least pre-season over-ranking).