Bracket Odds According to Bradley-Terry


Need some help with your bracket? You're probably familiar with the odds tables Ken Pomeroy and the rest of the Basketball Prospectus crew post for conference tournaments and the NCAA tourney based on Pomeroy's rankings. For the second year running, I'm doing the same using the Bradley-Terry ratings. This year you'll get two tables: one with the basic method (which ignores margin of victory) and one with the modified, margin-aware method (which uses margin converted to a logistic scale, to avoid having one massive blowout mask several close losses).

See the numbers after the jump.

Basic Method

As a reminder, for calculating game odds, Team A's chances of beating Team B are (rating of team A) / (rating of team A + rating of team B).

Team Seed Rating Round of 64 Round of 32 Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Title Game Champ
Ohio St E1 70.435 ---- 99.32% 87.87% 75.48% 60.54% 38.83% 24.95%
Kansas SW1 67.049 ---- 98.28% 84.93% 69.72% 51.67% 37.07% 21.53%
San Diego St W2 62.156 ---- 97.82% 85.85% 65.41% 47.24% 28.02% 17.24%
Pittsburgh SE1 34.313 ---- 97.61% 76.60% 55.17% 33.14% 15.48% 6.59%
BYU SE3 35.064 ---- 94.72% 72.97% 53.58% 32.40% 15.29% 6.59%
Duke W1 32.757 ---- 96.47% 79.42% 54.45% 24.29% 11.00% 5.14%
Notre Dame SW2 32.858 ---- 94.50% 73.99% 49.26% 21.59% 12.12% 5.04%
Syracuse E3 23.375 ---- 91.68% 66.73% 43.41% 15.29% 5.96% 2.33%
UConn W3 24.283 ---- 89.78% 57.79% 19.98% 10.29% 4.00% 1.60%
Texas W4 20.619 ---- 84.46% 58.30% 26.86% 9.29% 3.30% 1.20%
N Carolina E2 18.097 ---- 84.88% 62.45% 32.41% 9.87% 3.30% 1.11%
Louisville SW4 18.890 ---- 91.39% 62.77% 17.75% 8.14% 3.51% 1.05%
Purdue SW3 18.816 ---- 91.52% 54.71% 24.34% 7.88% 3.39% 1.01%
Florida SE2 16.259 ---- 94.68% 65.78% 25.99% 11.08% 3.41% 0.92%
Wisconsin SE4 16.775 ---- 74.36% 43.55% 17.35% 7.56% 2.37% 0.66%
Georgetown SW6 15.989 ---- 79.51% 39.51% 16.13% 4.73% 1.86% 0.50%
Kentucky E4 14.486 ---- 73.73% 44.45% 9.96% 4.68% 1.36% 0.39%
Cincinnati W6 16.406 ---- 64.51% 29.00% 7.90% 3.34% 1.04% 0.33%
Utah St SE12 13.346 ---- 56.85% 28.90% 10.08% 3.88% 1.05% 0.25%
St John's SE6 12.800 ---- 66.74% 19.96% 10.20% 3.80% 1.00% 0.23%
West Virginia E5 11.879 ---- 66.80% 34.43% 6.72% 2.84% 0.72% 0.18%
Old Dominion SE9 11.623 ---- 69.70% 18.77% 8.84% 3.14% 0.77% 0.16%
UNLV SW8 12.537 ---- 63.02% 10.75% 5.11% 1.86% 0.63% 0.14%
Arizona W5 11.152 ---- 63.33% 26.12% 8.59% 1.99% 0.49% 0.12%
Texas A&M SW7 10.954 ---- 63.85% 18.08% 7.33% 1.68% 0.52% 0.11%
Kansas St SE5 10.131 ---- 43.15% 19.13% 5.61% 1.83% 0.41% 0.08%
Villanova E9 10.121 ---- 55.75% 7.31% 3.49% 1.35% 0.31% 0.07%
Xavier E6 9.2460 ---- 53.04% 17.37% 7.63% 1.51% 0.32% 0.07%
Temple W7 9.7828 ---- 57.64% 8.77% 3.05% 0.95% 0.21% 0.05%
Vanderbilt SW5 8.8802 ---- 51.58% 18.77% 3.16% 0.92% 0.25% 0.04%
Marquette E11 8.1865 ---- 46.96% 14.27% 5.88% 1.07% 0.21% 0.04%
Michigan St SE10 7.6493 ---- 53.76% 18.84% 4.64% 1.24% 0.23% 0.03%
Richmond SW12 8.3354 ---- 48.42% 16.98% 2.72% 0.76% 0.20% 0.03%
Michigan W8 7.9368 ---- 57.50% 12.58% 4.56% 0.83% 0.16% 0.03%
Missouri W11 9.0248 ---- 35.49% 11.41% 2.07% 0.61% 0.13% 0.03%
George Mason E8 8.0342 ---- 44.25% 4.78% 2.02% 0.68% 0.13% 0.02%
Washington E7 6.8548 ---- 52.87% 17.77% 5.38% 0.86% 0.15% 0.02%
UCLA SE7 6.5790 ---- 46.24% 14.77% 3.27% 0.79% 0.13% 0.02%
Georgia E10 6.1096 ---- 47.13% 14.76% 4.14% 0.61% 0.09% 0.01%
Illinois SW9 7.3552 ---- 36.98% 4.14% 1.46% 0.37% 0.09% 0.01%
Penn St W10 7.1906 ---- 42.36% 5.07% 1.44% 0.37% 0.07% 0.01%
Gonzaga SE11 6.3784 ---- 33.26% 6.19% 2.16% 0.51% 0.08% 0.01%
Memphis W12 6.4571 ---- 36.67% 10.98% 2.53% 0.39% 0.06% 0.01%
Florida St SW10 6.2005 ---- 36.15% 6.94% 1.96% 0.30% 0.06% 1 / 12,300
Tennessee W9 5.8652 ---- 42.50% 7.47% 2.24% 0.32% 0.05% 1 / 13,700
Belmont SE13 5.7836 ---- 25.64% 8.43% 1.67% 0.37% 0.05% 1 / 15,000
Clemson E12 (P) 5.9823 50.68% 16.97% 6.05% 0.71% 0.20% 0.03% 1 / 22,400
Princeton E13 5.1602 ---- 26.27% 9.38% 0.97% 0.24% 0.03% 1 / 22,900
UAB E12 (P) 5.8219 49.32% 16.22% 5.69% 0.65% 0.18% 0.03% 1 / 25,900
Butler SE8 5.0516 ---- 30.30% 4.42% 1.25% 0.25% 0.03% 1 / 27,700
VCU SW11 (P) 4.4002 53.62% 11.57% 2.71% 0.47% 0.05% 1 / 11,500 1 / 117k
Oakland W13 3.7933 ---- 15.54% 4.61% 0.72% 0.07% 1 / 12,900 1 / 125k
Long Island E15 3.2241 ---- 15.12% 5.02% 0.88% 0.08% 1 / 14,300 1 / 160k
USC SW11 (P) 3.8066 46.38% 8.92% 1.89% 0.30% 0.03% 1 / 23,300 1 / 270k
Bucknell W14 2.7639 ---- 10.22% 1.80% 0.13% 0.02% 1 / 77,100 1 / 991k
Indiana St E14 2.1206 ---- 8.32% 1.63% 0.27% 0.02% 1 / 97,400 1 / 1.59M
Wofford SE14 1.9547 ---- 5.28% 0.88% 0.13% 0.01% 1 / 150k 1 / 3.19M
Akron SW15 1.9128 ---- 5.50% 0.99% 0.11% 1 / 15,700 1 / 202k 1 / 4.37M
Morehead St SW13 1.7795 ---- 8.61% 1.47% 0.07% 1 / 18,900 1 / 260k 1 / 6.00M
St Peter's SW14 1.7443 ---- 8.48% 1.18% 0.10% 1 / 19,800 1 / 277k 1 / 6.52M
N Colorado W15 1.3871 ---- 2.18% 0.31% 0.02% 1 / 65,800 1 / 1.48M 1 / 35.8M
Hampton W16 1.1991 ---- 3.53% 0.52% 0.04% 1 / 63,100 1 / 1.62M 1 / 45.1M
Boston U SW16 1.1768 ---- 1.72% 0.18% 0.02% 1 / 117k 1 / 2.34M 1 / 80.0M
Santa Barbara SE15 0.91441 ---- 5.32% 0.61% 0.03% 1 / 86,200 1 / 3.08M 1 / 134M
NC Asheville SE16 (P) 0.91130 54.57% 1.41% 0.14% 1 / 10,700 1 / 231k 1 / 8.31M 1 / 363M
AR Little Rock SE16 (P) 0.75856 45.43% 0.98% 0.08% 1 / 21,500 1 / 552k 1 / 23.6M 1 / 1.23B
UTSA E16 (P) 0.57631 74.73% 0.61% 0.04% 1 / 52,300 1 / 1.36M 1 / 75.5M 1 / 4.26B
Alabama St E16 (P) 0.19488 25.27% 0.07% 1 / 68,300 1 / 3.67M 1 / 272M 1 / 43.8B 1 / 7.17T
  • San Diego State is one of three teams with a huge lead in the ratings (1-2 against BYU and perfect against everyone else); they're actually considered about 3 times as likely to win it all as the 1 seed in their region.
  • The West is stacked; four of the top ten are in that region.
  • Utah State seems criminally underseeded; they're 19th most likely to win it all even coming from the 12 spot and have a 4% chance of topping George Mason's famous run.
  • The Big Ten bubble teams ranked 35th, 36th, 37th, and 38th in the ratings, so their relative placements in the table here are a pretty good indication of the ease of paths. We and (surprisingly) Michigan got fairly easy paths (yes, they have to get past Duke but they have reasonable chances thereafter); Illinois and Penn State have tougher roads.
  • The following lower seeds are favored in the round of 64: Utah State, Old Dominion, Villanova, MSU.
  • Alabama State: ouch. More than a thousand times less likely to win it all than anyone else.

Margin-Aware Method

For the margin-aware method, the formula is similar but with the ratings raised to the 1.5 power before computing the win percentage.

Team Seed Rating Round of 64 Round of 32 Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Title Game Champ
Ohio St E1 18.350 ---- 99.43% 85.75% 66.74% 53.64% 35.32% 23.65%
Duke W1 15.492 ---- 98.76% 85.94% 58.05% 41.32% 23.85% 14.63%
Kansas SW1 14.914 ---- 98.23% 79.64% 60.73% 41.22% 26.44% 14.31%
Pittsburgh SE1 13.635 ---- 98.29% 85.72% 62.76% 45.12% 26.18% 13.35%
Texas W4 11.712 ---- 88.88% 68.93% 31.38% 19.50% 9.44% 4.86%
Purdue SW3 10.437 ---- 95.95% 68.92% 41.38% 19.93% 10.35% 4.31%
San Diego St W2 10.234 ---- 95.92% 74.05% 46.25% 19.51% 8.56% 4.00%
BYU SE3 9.2990 ---- 92.94% 67.41% 45.75% 20.77% 9.25% 3.50%
Notre Dame SW2 9.6695 ---- 94.39% 70.43% 37.71% 17.18% 8.46% 3.31%
Kentucky E4 9.4017 ---- 89.29% 60.29% 19.82% 11.97% 5.10% 2.23%
Syracuse E3 8.3837 ---- 93.11% 64.18% 38.00% 12.66% 4.90% 1.94%
Wisconsin SE4 8.7152 ---- 78.02% 51.88% 20.80% 11.92% 5.04% 1.80%
UConn W3 8.3268 ---- 90.37% 55.27% 27.58% 9.73% 3.63% 1.43%
Louisville SW4 8.0469 ---- 91.69% 60.54% 21.45% 9.93% 4.26% 1.41%
N Carolina E2 7.3863 ---- 87.50% 53.27% 27.92% 8.27% 2.85% 1.01%
Florida SE2 6.7597 ---- 92.46% 63.76% 29.47% 10.27% 3.47% 0.97%
Washington E7 6.4613 ---- 75.52% 37.77% 17.98% 4.67% 1.42% 0.44%
Cincinnati W6 6.9154 ---- 61.65% 29.20% 12.69% 3.76% 1.19% 0.40%
Georgetown SW6 6.4518 ---- 75.40% 26.47% 11.45% 3.72% 1.32% 0.35%
West Virginia E5 6.5013 ---- 64.93% 26.92% 6.19% 2.91% 0.89% 0.28%
Arizona W5 5.8484 ---- 79.55% 24.97% 6.18% 2.32% 0.62% 0.18%
St John's SE6 5.3713 ---- 59.47% 20.44% 10.00% 2.80% 0.76% 0.17%
Illinois SW9 5.9548 ---- 54.39% 11.66% 5.33% 1.91% 0.63% 0.15%
Utah St SE12 5.6152 ---- 51.34% 20.96% 5.69% 2.37% 0.67% 0.15%
Villanova E9 5.9587 ---- 59.98% 9.64% 3.94% 1.73% 0.48% 0.14%
Marquette E11 5.3585 ---- 57.58% 21.60% 9.32% 1.99% 0.50% 0.13%
Vanderbilt SW5 5.5083 ---- 55.46% 22.36% 5.50% 1.83% 0.56% 0.13%
Kansas St SE5 5.4175 ---- 48.66% 19.28% 5.05% 2.04% 0.56% 0.12%
UNLV SW8 5.2957 ---- 45.61% 8.57% 3.56% 1.14% 0.34% 0.07%
Texas A&M SW7 4.9490 ---- 54.09% 16.29% 5.01% 1.25% 0.34% 0.07%
Temple W7 4.9448 ---- 58.02% 16.10% 5.87% 1.22% 0.28% 0.07%
Missouri W11 5.0399 ---- 38.35% 14.11% 4.67% 0.99% 0.23% 0.06%
Richmond SW12 4.7595 ---- 44.54% 15.86% 3.34% 0.96% 0.25% 0.05%
Michigan St SE10 4.1419 ---- 53.45% 19.46% 5.86% 1.25% 0.25% 0.04%
Michigan W8 4.7300 ---- 57.69% 8.89% 2.57% 0.79% 0.17% 0.04%
Xavier E6 4.3705 ---- 42.42% 13.24% 4.79% 0.82% 0.16% 0.03%
Florida St SW10 4.4367 ---- 45.91% 12.44% 3.42% 0.76% 0.19% 0.03%
Clemson E12 (P) 4.9749 66.85% 26.80% 8.84% 1.52% 0.57% 0.13% 0.03%
Gonzaga SE11 4.1596 ---- 40.53% 10.96% 4.37% 0.94% 0.19% 0.03%
Old Dominion SE9 4.0818 ---- 56.73% 8.72% 2.83% 0.88% 0.18% 0.03%
George Mason E8 4.5495 ---- 40.02% 4.59% 1.47% 0.51% 0.11% 0.02%
UCLA SE7 3.7775 ---- 46.55% 15.62% 4.29% 0.83% 0.15% 0.02%
Penn St W10 3.9849 ---- 41.98% 9.33% 2.75% 0.45% 0.08% 0.01%
Belmont SE13 3.7448 ---- 21.98% 7.88% 1.41% 0.40% 0.07% 0.01%
Tennessee W9 3.8465 ---- 42.31% 5.08% 1.19% 0.29% 0.05% 1 / 11,200
Butler SE8 3.4071 ---- 43.27% 5.37% 1.45% 0.38% 0.06% 1 / 12,900
USC SW11 (P) 3.4467 62.98% 17.68% 3.29% 0.79% 0.13% 0.02% 1 / 31,300
Georgia E10 3.0492 ---- 24.48% 6.48% 1.53% 0.17% 0.02% 1 / 34,100
Oakland W13 2.9299 ---- 11.12% 3.63% 0.42% 0.08% 1 / 10,600 1 / 83,700
UAB E12 (P) 3.1169 33.15% 8.26% 1.73% 0.17% 0.04% 1 / 18,800 1 / 137k
Memphis W12 2.3647 ---- 20.45% 2.47% 0.22% 0.03% 1 / 34,700 1 / 361k
Princeton E13 2.2865 ---- 10.71% 2.22% 0.15% 0.02% 1 / 46,600 1 / 507k
VCU SW11 (P) 2.4188 37.02% 6.91% 0.87% 0.14% 0.02% 1 / 54,400 1 / 663k
Long Island E15 2.0184 ---- 12.50% 2.47% 0.36% 0.02% 1 / 56,700 1 / 728k
Bucknell W14 1.8719 ---- 9.63% 1.41% 0.16% 1 / 10,300 1 / 149k 1 / 2.12M
Wofford SE14 1.6675 ---- 7.06% 1.20% 0.18% 0.01% 1 / 124k 1 / 2.51M
Morehead St SW13 1.6230 ---- 8.31% 1.25% 0.07% 1 / 18,500 1 / 259k 1 / 5.45M
Indiana St E14 1.4772 ---- 6.89% 0.98% 0.10% 1 / 22,600 1 / 460k 1 / 9.10M
Akron SW15 1.4724 ---- 5.61% 0.84% 0.06% 1 / 29,100 1 / 464k 1 / 11.2M
Santa Barbara SE15 1.2708 ---- 7.54% 1.16% 0.09% 1 / 24,100 1 / 555k 1 / 16.5M
St Peter's SW14 1.2651 ---- 4.05% 0.45% 0.03% 1 / 69,000 1 / 1.36M 1 / 40.8M
N Colorado W15 1.2477 ---- 4.08% 0.52% 0.04% 1 / 75,400 1 / 1.91M 1 / 47.9M
NC Asheville SE16 (P) 1.0246 63.40% 1.28% 0.16% 1 / 10,500 1 / 182k 1 / 5.68M 1 / 231M
Boston U SW16 1.0247 ---- 1.77% 0.13% 1 / 12,800 1 / 309k 1 / 8.21M 1 / 333M
Hampton W16 0.83525 ---- 1.24% 0.10% 1 / 29,600 1 / 874k 1 / 39.3M 1 / 1.76B
AR Little Rock SE16 (P) 0.71043 36.60% 0.43% 0.03% 1 / 85,900 1 / 2.50M 1 / 133M 1 / 9.20B
UTSA E16 (P) 0.65806 76.94% 0.52% 0.02% 1 / 164k 1 / 5.51M 1 / 360M 1 / 22.8B
Alabama St E16 (P) 0.29470 23.06% 0.05% 1 / 164k 1 / 19.0M 1 / 2.07B 1 / 445B 1 / 92.7T
  • Here the surprisingly high team is Texas; they're ahead of all the 2 and 3 seeds.
  • This method is slightly less impressed with UConn, but the West still has three of the top 7.
  • Utah State isn't quite as badly jobbed according to this, but they're still clearly better than a 12.
  • Low seeds favored in the round of 64: Illinois, Utah St, Villanova, Marquette, and MSU.
  • Alabama State: double ouch. If you played 20 different Powerball tickets two drawings in a row, you would be as likely to win the jackpot both times as Alabama State is to win seven games and the title.
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