Conference-Only PORPAG: Crazy Big Numbers Edition
[I'm not all dead yet.]
First, The Real Awards: Kalin Lucas made the second team in both sets of voting; Draymond Green made the third team on both lists. Entirely reasonable placements for both. The first team guys (Taylor, Moore, Leuer, Johnson, Sullinger for the coaches; Battle instead of Leuer for the media) were too darn tough to unseat for Lucas.
Delvon Roe made the all-defensive team, which is a very nice honor for him--and thoroughly deserved, given the way he defended some of the best scorers in the league, both on the perimeter and in the post.
No major quibbles with the picks overall, although I preferred Dylan's version. Jeff Brooks probably got the biggest snub--failing to get above "honorable mention" level despite a sterling statistical profile playing for a team no one thought would get anywhere near contending for an NCAA bid (and dealing with a midseason injury to boot). The numbers would have compelled me to vote for Jordan Taylor as Player of the Year (keep reading), but you can't really argue with the JaJuan Johnson selection.
Now, The Awkwardly-Acronymed Numbers: Read all about PORPAG here, here, here, and here. Numbers are after the jump. They're based on conference-only data and are calculated based on the traditional PORPAG parameters of 88 (replacement-level offensive rating) and 62 (pace).
| Player | Team | Class | OffRtg | Poss% | Minute% | PORPAG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Taylor | Wisconsin | Jr | 132.9 | 28.4 | 93.2 | 7.37 |
| Talor Battle | Penn State | Sr | 115.5 | 28.2 | 97.2 | 4.68 |
| Jon Diebler | Ohio State | Sr | 146.9 | 12.6 | 94.3 | 4.34 |
| Jon Leuer | Wisconsin | Sr | 113.8 | 30.3 | 85.0 | 4.12 |
| Jared Sullinger | Ohio State | Fr | 117.0 | 26.7 | 84.6 | 4.05 |
| William Buford | Ohio State | Jr | 123.6 | 21.4 | 84.3 | 3.98 |
| JaJuan Johnson | Purdue | Sr | 113.1 | 27.6 | 90.8 | 3.90 |
| Keaton Nankivil | Wisconsin | Sr | 132.0 | 17.7 | 79.1 | 3.82 |
| Jeff Brooks | Penn State | Sr | 122.7 | 21.2 | 82.2 | 3.76 |
| E`Twaun Moore | Purdue | Sr | 113.4 | 26.2 | 86.5 | 3.57 |
| Michael Thompson | Northwestern | Sr | 113.4 | 22.6 | 95.3 | 3.40 |
| Kalin Lucas | Michigan State | Sr | 107.7 | 28.3 | 87.4 | 3.01 |
| Tim Hardaway Jr | Michigan | Fr | 111.9 | 24.9 | 79.3 | 2.92 |
| Trevor Mbakwe | Minnesota | Jr | 112.4 | 23.1 | 83.1 | 2.90 |
| Mike Davis | Illinois | Sr | 115.9 | 18.6 | 86.9 | 2.80 |
| Darius Morris | Michigan | So | 103.7 | 31.5 | 87.6 | 2.68 |
| Ryne Smith | Purdue | Jr | 151.3 | 10.2 | 66.9 | 2.68 |
| Demetri McCamey | Illinois | Sr | 107.4 | 26.5 | 83.8 | 2.67 |
| Josh Gasser | Wisconsin | Fr | 135.9 | 12.2 | 70.8 | 2.57 |
| Blake Hoffarber | Minnesota | Sr | 110.1 | 20.7 | 89.6 | 2.54 |
| Lewis Jackson | Purdue | Jr | 114.1 | 21.7 | 70.3 | 2.47 |
| David Lighty | Ohio State | Sr | 110.1 | 21.4 | 84.4 | 2.46 |
| Jordan Hulls | Indiana | So | 111.8 | 19.8 | 84.3 | 2.46 |
| Melsahn Basabe | Iowa | Fr | 112.0 | 24.8 | 64.8 | 2.38 |
| Zack Novak | Michigan | Jr | 119.8 | 13.4 | 88.4 | 2.34 |
| Jarryd Cole | Iowa | Sr | 126.5 | 14.6 | 66.6 | 2.32 |
| Draymond Green | Michigan State | Jr | 106.0 | 25.6 | 78.0 | 2.23 |
| David Jackson | Penn State | Sr | 113.0 | 17.0 | 83.9 | 2.21 |
| Matt Gatens | Iowa | Jr | 109.0 | 18.3 | 87.0 | 2.08 |
| Mike Tisdale | Illinois | Sr | 110.4 | 19.6 | 65.4 | 1.78 |
| John Shurna | Northwestern | Jr | 103.0 | 23.4 | 76.6 | 1.66 |
| Bill Cole | Illinois | Sr | 129.2 | 11.0 | 55.7 | 1.56 |
| Aaron Craft | Ohio State | Fr | 104.6 | 19.0 | 78.3 | 1.53 |
| Delvon Roe | Michigan State | Jr | 116.5 | 14.5 | 59.6 | 1.53 |
| Tim Jarmusz | Wisconsin | Sr | 128.3 | 9.6 | 63.4 | 1.52 |
| Jordan Morgan | Michigan | Fr | 107.0 | 19.8 | 63.3 | 1.47 |
| Victor Oladipo | Indiana | Fr | 110.8 | 21.7 | 47.2 | 1.45 |
| Jereme Richmond | Illinois | Fr | 109.1 | 20.3 | 53.9 | 1.43 |
| Christian Watford | Indiana | So | 101.4 | 27.8 | 59.6 | 1.37 |
| Verdell Jones III | Indiana | Jr | 100.8 | 26.8 | 62.9 | 1.34 |
| Ralph Sampson III | Minnesota | Jr | 102.8 | 18.4 | 78.2 | 1.32 |
| Brandon Paul | Illinois | So | 102.3 | 24.7 | 57.1 | 1.25 |
| Tim Frazier | Penn State | So | 101.6 | 18.1 | 80.6 | 1.23 |
| JerShon Cobb | Northwestern | Fr | 103.0 | 18.1 | 71.0 | 1.19 |
| Tom Pritchard | Indiana | Jr | 126.8 | 9.3 | 49.8 | 1.11 |
| Alex Marcotullio | Northwestern | So | 110.3 | 15.0 | 53.4 | 1.11 |
| Luke Mirkovic | Northwestern | Jr | 100.2 | 22.0 | 59.9 | 1.00 |
| Andrew Jones | Penn State | Sr | 103.7 | 13.7 | 73.3 | 0.98 |
| Rodney Williams | Minnesota | So | 101.1 | 16.6 | 70.1 | 0.94 |
| D.J. Byrd | Purdue | So | 107.5 | 15.1 | 51.0 | 0.93 |
| Mike Bruesewitz | Wisconsin | So | 108.6 | 14.8 | 40.7 | 0.77 |
| Drew Crawford | Northwestern | So | 95.2 | 20.6 | 77.1 | 0.71 |
| Stu Douglass | Michigan | Jr | 97.4 | 14.3 | 80.1 | 0.67 |
| Kelsey Barlow | Purdue | So | 100.4 | 17.7 | 46.4 | 0.63 |
| Will Sheehey | Indiana | Fr | 99.7 | 19.6 | 41.1 | 0.59 |
| D.J. Richardson | Illinois | So | 97.6 | 15.0 | 63.1 | 0.56 |
| Keith Appling | Michigan State | Fr | 98.0 | 13.9 | 65.1 | 0.56 |
| Terone Johnson | Purdue | Fr | 98.7 | 16.9 | 47.1 | 0.53 |
| Bryce Cartwright | Iowa | Jr | 91.5 | 26.4 | 83.0 | 0.48 |
| Evan Smotrycz | Michigan | Fr | 96.0 | 19.7 | 43.9 | 0.43 |
| Durrell Summers | Michigan State | Sr | 92.7 | 20.1 | 70.8 | 0.41 |
| Austin Hollins | Minnesota | Fr | 93.5 | 18.1 | 41.4 | 0.25 |
| Jeremiah Rivers | Indiana | Sr | 89.6 | 15.4 | 58.1 | 0.09 |
| Colton Iverson | Minnesota | Jr | 84.3 | 20.6 | 47.8 | (0.23) |
| Eric May | Iowa | So | 83.6 | 17.3 | 52.1 | (0.24) |
| Roy Devyn Marble | Iowa | Fr | 79.7 | 21.1 | 50.8 | (0.55) |
| Zach McCabe | Iowa | Fr | 70.1 | 19.6 | 44.7 | (0.97) |
Bullets:
- This was definitely the year of the offense. Last season, there were four players with conference-only PORPAG above 3.50. This season, there were ten. (Note that all ten came from just four teams, though.) Last year's Evan Turner would be 10th on the list above.
- Despite that, Jordan Taylor was still a full head (or three) above the field. Just an insane performance in Big Ten play. Great scoring numbers (46.7% on threes, 43.8% FTR) and mathematically-impossible ball-handing figures (31.6 assist% vs. 7.3 TO%).
- Seems like there's a larger number of high-efficiency/low-usage players this season, led by Jon Diebler. Even tougher to separate individual achievement from team performance/dynamics for those guys.
- Could Jordan Taylor please seriously explore declaring for the NBA draft? If he, Jared Sullinger, and William Buford all went pro, none of the top 12 players on the list would be back next year.
- In that scenario, a .500 team returning three starters and adding a raft of talented perimeter players to replace the two graduating starters looks fairly competitive.
- Of course, our friends in Ann Arbor would look even more competitive, with two of the top
fourthree and four of the top fifteen players remaining on the list. - As for this season's MSU numbers, they really couldn't be any more dismal--outside of Lucas pushing back toward the top ten after still looking well below 100% when conference play started. Only three guys above even the 1.00 mark. And only five guys on the list at all (StatSheet has a 40% minute% cutoff). Add it all up and you get a team tied for second-to-last in offensive efficiency in Big Ten play. (On the positive, or at least less negative, side: Fourth in defensive efficiency--albeit well behind the top three.)
- How about figuring out how to make those three Hawkeye players at the bottom of the list take as many shots as possible Thursday evening?
12 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Mike Davis is a senior
In regard to your 6th bullet point, if that scenario comes true michigan would actually have 2 of the top 3 returners on the list. Actually they could have the top 2 because I’ve heard Mbakwe is leaning towards leaving.
Thanks, fixed
Fight for The Only Colors: Green and White!
by KJ@theonlycolors on Mar 8, 2011 7:19 AM CST up reply actions
Thank you for compiling this
Jordan Taylor has been absolutely unconscious this season.
Of course, our friends in Ann Arbor would look even more competitive, with two of the top four and four of the top fifteen players remaining on the list.
The benefits of having no seniors, I guess. But as the poster mentioned above, the top two returners would be nice. Very nice. Maybe a run for the title with all of the talent departing?
/hopeless optimist.
Maize-Colored Glasses: BTT Preview: Analyzing Outcome Probabilities
The big ten has been absurdly good offensively this year.
For whatever reason, three point shooting (when I last checked at it) was up from like 34% to almost 37%. I don’t know why this is.
Is it me
or does it seem like William Buford has already been at Ohio State for like five years? How is he only a Junior?
That's what I feel about every OSU player
The Dieber-Lighty-Buford trio seem like they have been there for a decade. Of course they haven’t, but it feels that way. As an aside, I remember non-MSU fans telling me that about Neitzel his senior year.
I suspect the rest of the league
feels the same way about Lucas and Summers.
by TheCrestedHelm on Mar 8, 2011 9:43 AM CST up reply actions
Yep
It’s just that Diebler and Lighty were producing early in their careers. That and every other OSU player is one-and-done.
Paul Davis was rumored to have had two consecutive stints at MSU
at least that’s what friends of mine in Madison used to say
Partly because the three teams he's played on have seemed like pretty distinct entities
The 2009 team with B.J. Mullens as the compliment to Turner.
The 2010 completely Turner-centric team.
This year’s team, with Sullinger as the star but generally more offensive balance.
Fight for The Only Colors: Green and White!
by KJ@theonlycolors on Mar 8, 2011 4:37 PM CST up reply actions
complement
Fight for The Only Colors: Green and White!
by KJ@theonlycolors on Mar 8, 2011 9:03 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
I think it has to do
with them being immediate contributors and starters. Neitzel was like that, so is Mike Davis I feel like he’s been at Illinois for decades. People who take a bit to develop like McCamey or DJ White (back in the day) though dont feel that way.

by 



















