Talking Points -- A Michigan State at Michigan Basketball Preview

by Pete Rossman on Jan 16, 2012 10:22 PM CST in Michigan State Spartans Basketball

KJ and Dylan did a great breakdown of the game yesterday. If you're like me, you'll also want a few talking points whenever your friends/coworkers/clergy members inquire about what you think will happen today. My friends, I am here to help. The following are seven points -- some derived from statistics, others from my intuition/gut/black tar opium fever dreams -- to help you look smart and be prepared for today's match. Here they are:

Michigan's one of the most efficient inside scoring teams in the NCAA. We can't let them score inside. It's true -- usually John Beilein's teams are associated with good outside shooting, but the Wolverines' three-point percentage has been somewhat average (35.0%) this year. Their two-point percentage (55.5%), however, has been elite, ranking them 5th in division one. Despite the high two-point percentage, it hasn't led to many shots from the foul line -- Michigan averages about 3 free throws for every 10 field goal attempts, that's good for 311th. Hopefully MSU learned its lesson from Northwestern, which is to watch drives to the basket.

We can't let that one tall guy beat us from three, or the other tall one get inside. The "tall guy" who can get you from three is Evan Smotrycz, a 6'9", 235 lb. forward who's been Michigan's most accurate shooter from behind the arc this year. He's been hitting them at a 45.8% clip, not good you guys. The interior player is Jordan Morgan, a 6'8" 240 lb. athletic forward who excels at getting in the post and scoring from four feet and less. The good news is that Michigan hasn't been running the pick and roll as well as last year.

We have to make Tim Hardaway shoot the three. If Hardaway beats MSU by making a few too many insane threes, fine. Michigan State has received the Craig Moore/Talor Battle/Jon Diebler treatment before, and if the Spartans lose due to a Brandon Paul-esque performance, so be it. Hardaway's been efficient from inside the arc however, hitting 55.3% of his twos and drawing five fouls every 40 minutes as well.

Who's that new guy, Trey Clarke or something? Anyway, MSU needs to watch him. First, it's Trey BURKE. Second, I could list a bunch of stats, but here's the main one. When Burke's on the floor, he assists on 30.5% of Michigan's baskets; that number puts him 90th among all of division one. His replacement most of the time, Stu Douglass, assists on 12.6% of Michigan's made baskets. I'm sure there's some overlap when they're both on the floor, but Burke's the better point guard, and if he picks up two quick fouls, expect Beilein to (stupidly from a UM point of view) pull him, which should make the Wolverine offense less efficient.

Who's that one guy that always draws charges? I hate him. That guy is Zack Novak, and he makes Chris Kramer's flopping game look like Cosmo Kramer. Let's get to the last talking point.

We need to be emotional, but we can't be too emotional. Remember the MSU-UM football game this past season? The ending was great, but the middle was muddled by a litany of unneeded personal fouls. It's nice to play intense, but it's even nicer to play smart. The Spartans can't let their emotion cause them to overpursue -- Michigan's inside cuts to the basket will hurt them seriously.

So, who do you think will win? Yeah, I know I'm supposed to post something tangible, such as how MSU's rebounding advantage will help (although Michigan's been good at keeping opponents away from offensive rebounds -- opponents only collect 27.9% of their misses, 27th best in D1), or I'm supposed to say something intangible, such as Michigan State will be focused off of their loss in Evanston and guard the heck of the offense. I'm thinking something simpler:

Who do I think will win? Pfft, Michigan State, duh. FINAL SCORE: MICHIGAN STATE 70, MICHIGAN 63.

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Comments

For the past month

I’ve been going on and on about how this game would be a true indication of how high the ceiling is for this team. Whether or not it’s a Final Four-type team or a team that might make it to the Sweet 16. It will probably be the most hostile environment this team sees all season against a team that will give every single ounce of energy it has.

I don’t doubt that we will play our asses off, I just worry that we won’t hit our 3s, or at least not as much as they will. I fully expect Novak to have a game like he did last year at the Bres.

Michigan 72 — Michigan State 60

by B-Race Miles on Jan 17, 2012 7:24 AM CST reply actions

12 point loss?

NFW.

by robb. on Jan 17, 2012 8:15 AM CST up reply actions

+1

BEAT MICHIGAN

by TahoeSparty on Jan 17, 2012 8:41 AM CST up reply actions

God I hope I'm wrong

but I just have a bad, bad feeling about this game. Michigan is a much better team at home and I don’t know how guys like Wood and Dawson will respond to the loss at NW, especially after Izzo sort of called out Wood.

Day Day can’t beat this team on his own like he did against Gonzaga. Everyone will need to bring their A-Game tonight, not just him.

by B-Race Miles on Jan 17, 2012 8:42 AM CST up reply actions

They Will

by Loneytunes on Jan 17, 2012 3:40 PM CST up reply actions

God I dislike Zach Novak

That kid is Chris Kramer and every Wisconsin big all rolled up into one. In any case, I think we will come back focused and barring another outlier performance from Novak, Hardaway or Burke, we will control this game. I know its tough to win on the road, but I’ve been to Chrysler and compared to some other B1G arenas it is really not that intimidating.

MSU 78 – UM 65

by steinfi2 on Jan 17, 2012 8:14 AM CST reply actions

Crisler can get loud

because it is so small & dumpy, but as long as our guys can withstand the initial push from M & the crowd, and keep it tight to the first media timeout, I like our chances. MSU’s starting 5 is equal or better at every position save one – I think Hardaway is better than Wood, and Morgan is equal to Paynix. But out bench is light years ahead of theirs – the only player averaging over 10 mpg on their bench is Douglass.

I just don’t think U-M has the horses to run with MSU all night.

by MSUDersh on Jan 17, 2012 9:26 AM CST up reply actions

Too emotional

I fear Izzo and Green’s emphasis on the game lead to us coming out too aggressive, leading to early foul trouble for Green, Appling, or both. MSU gets in a big hole early and the comeback falls short. UM 68, MSU 62

by rook34 on Jan 17, 2012 9:15 AM CST via mobile reply actions

I like the emotion

Remember how emotional Mateen & ’Tone used to be when they came out for big games? Remember how Mateen, then later Ager, then Walton, used to slap the floor with both hands when facing their men as they brought the rock down the floor on D?

Izzo is a master motivator, and combined with a terrific floor general like Cleaves or Green, was able to get that emotion to turn into effort for the players on the floor.

I look for our guys to come out tonight hungry & fired up. I envision Wood getting on the board early with a few shots, assists, and boards, I see Green filling up the stat sheet between the 10 minute marks in the first & second halfs, and I see Appling bringing it home with drives to the lane, free throws, and jumpers late in the clock. And at some point in the game, I see Nix posterizing Morgan or Smotrcyz for a bug dunk.

MSU 75, UM 58

by MSUDersh on Jan 17, 2012 9:21 AM CST up reply actions

I'll be taking the rest of the day off

..just to get my vocal cords limbered up. GO GREEEEEEEEN!

My keys to the game Mrs Calabash where ever you are.

Gotta get them right from the getGO. Whoever is ahead after 8 minutes wins.

I see, by my logic, after 5 minutes a score of MSU 16 Um 7.

Jump on them and don’t let up. It’s a win.

by jumpinjohnnyg on Jan 17, 2012 10:29 AM CST reply actions

Exactly

Get on them early, step on their throats, and don’t let up until there is 0:00.0 on the clock (or 0:00.2 on the arena clock).

by MSUDersh on Jan 17, 2012 10:42 AM CST up reply actions

When we get ahead....

I hope Izzo doesn’t go to the Narduzzi prevent defense. :)

Lay the wood to them!

by jumpinjohnnyg on Jan 17, 2012 11:38 AM CST reply actions

Amen

In years past, I’ve hated seeing MSU get up by 20 early in the second half only to take their foot off the gas, start trying to waste clock, then not knowing how to battle back when the opponent evens the game back up. Hasn’t happened nearly as much this year, and I was extremely pleased with how the Iowa game finished out. Here’s to punching them in their greasy faces (not literally guys, NOT LITERALLY), and continuing to punch them in their greasy faces.

Tonight's going to be a good night.

by Spartalytical on Jan 17, 2012 5:36 PM CST up reply actions

I think we need to win the 3 point shooting battle

Looking at the four factors, they have a slight advantage in eFG percentage, a small advantage in turnovers, we have a substantial advantage in offensive rebounding percentage and getting to the line. However, in the Big Ten, for better or worse, one can expect some referee home cooking, so our advantage at the line may be somewhat subdued by the fact that we’re playing at their place. That leaves offensive rebounding as the main key, other than outperforming them on another factor that we generally underperform in compared to them. That’s not completely unlikely, as performance varies, and we’re very close in both turnover and eFG percentage. Overall we’re better than them (statistically speaking) on both offense and defense as measured by PPP and Opponent PPP.

They have one glaring weakness in conference play on defense and it seems to play to one of our offensive strengths. Since conference play began they have been the worst team in the league in defending the 3 pointer. They are allowing teams to shoot better than 41 percent from three. Our three point percentage since conference play began is at around 42 percent, which is good for 2nd in the conference.

It stands to reason that if team A is really good at something, and team B is really bad at preventing that something, then team A should do that something more often than normal. So hopefully we’ll have the same hot shooting night from the outside as UMs other opponents have recently, and we’ll hoist from outside more often than normal. That would be instrumental in giving us a better than normal eFG percentage. We do that and rebound at our normal rate and we should win.

by TheCrestedHelm on Jan 17, 2012 11:46 AM CST reply actions