Michigan 60, Michigan State 59 -- Keep Calm And Carry On
by Pete Rossman on Jan 18, 2012 8:53 PM CST
in Michigan State Spartans Basketball
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PrintIt's been 24 hours since that stomach punch of a loss, and now that most of us can talk about this game somewhat rationally, let's. MSU's offense was stale in the early going, managing 12 points in the first 11 minutes of the game. In the next 29 the scoring stabilized, but one problem remained. That would be Michigan's inside game. Through drives and long jump shots, the Wolverines made 70.8% of their twos, and that's the stat that would contribute most to State's demise.
Even with UM being prodigious from close range, MSU was up one with a minute left. Then, horror. Keith Appling's Benjamin Button treatment kicked in; he looked very green in the last four minutes. He misses a jump shot, and someone from Michigan rebounds, kicks the pass out, (it doesn't matter who) and a lay-up gives Michigan the lead. The last 30 seconds -- chaos. MSU nearly turned the ball over three times. Austin Thornton had an open game winner and didn't take it. Izzo for some reason didn't use a time out. Maybe he didn't want the defense to reset, but Michigan had 6 fouls at the time, it's not like they could foul to waste time. Eventually Draymond got the ball drove down the lane, missed the jump shot, and missed the tip in just before the buzzer. Ball game.
After the jump, the four factors, and I reassure y'all.
Here's the four factors:
As you can see, even with Michigan's lights out two-point shooting the effective field goal percentages were about equal. That's what happens when MSU shoots 7-15 from three and UM shoots 6-21. The rebounding was right where it needed to be, but turnovers, once again, UGH.
So should we, as a fanbase, worry? Nope, and here're some reasons:
- The Big Ten is BANANAS this year. B-A-N-A-N-A-S this year. As I'm writing this, Nebraska beat Indiana. Ohio State's lost to Illinois and Indiana, albeit both on the road. Illinois lost to Purdue by a jillion. Purdue lost to Penn State. Rexrode thinks the loss means MSU won't win the Big Ten this year, but I kindly disagree -- I think it's much less likely State will win the conference crown, but I'd doubt anyone who talks in certainties about how this race will go.
- This isn't a real bad loss, except it was to our rival and hurt like hell. If we replaced Michigan with Illinois, we'd say that it was a valiant effort, but MSU gave up too much inside and turned the ball over. Since it was Michigan, some of us are saying "NUKE EVERYTHING" (including me last night). Sure, Michigan had two wins last year over one of the most dysfunctional MSU squads in history and another win over a good MSU squad. The gap is closing. However...
- The gap isn't closed yet. UM's coming off a 9-9 effort in conference last year, and is 4-2 and about to get a major gut check. I'd say the gap will be closed when they win a Big Ten title like MSU has in two of the past three seasons. In summary: closing? Yes. Closed? No.
- MSU will straighten the ship. The next five games -- Purdue, Minnesota, at Illinois, Michigan, Penn State. Anything less than 4-1 through this stretch will be a disappointment. The Spartans are still top ten in KenPom adjusted offensive and defensive rating. They need to retool the interior defense, but knowing what needs fixing is better than the cluster that was last season.
In conclusion, it sucks to lose to your rival, and congratulations to Michigan for getting punched and fighting back. February 5th is looming, and if MSU can't sweep, you can be darn sure they're going to win this thing on aggregate.
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Here's the way I see it...
UM has a good squad, shot lights out, got every single call from the refs, and still only beat us by 1 point on their home floor.
This Spartan team will be OK, as long as they don’t let the rivalry loss go to their heads. Looking forward to the rematch – it’s on Super Bowl Sunday, so I hope the game is early in the day and Breslin is rocking!
https://twitter.com/#!/SpartanKC
Its on Super Bowl Sunday?
Arrrrgggghhhhh!!!! I have a wedding in GR the night before, and my place is 182 miles from the hotel!! A 3 hour drive at 10 am while severely hungover is just not gonna happen.
FML
by MSUDersh on Jan 18, 2012 10:16 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
I feel your pain
Regarding having to miss important, high profile games. I just looked at the schedule and realized I’ll be in New Orleans with my wife for our anniversary (a big #) during the Ohio St. game. I don’t figure she’d take it too well if I ditch her to go watch a basketball game……
Your wife is not a Spartan?
I may just be lucky, but my wife and I met at State – so Spartan sports are assumed to be a priority for both of us. We made a point of taking time during our anniversary weekend to go watch the MSU/OSU football game. Wonderful woman.
Bleeding green since 1992.
by Earl Morrall Majority on Jan 19, 2012 10:32 AM CST up reply actions
Yeah I met mine at MSU too
Actually, met her at a tailgate for the fball game vs. U-M in ’03 – MSU may have lost that day, but she & I both won!!
The road to a B1G title was always going to be tough
The easiest path always starts with (1) take care of business at home and (2) win against the bottom of the conference on the road. But (2) isn’t in the cards for MSU this year: @PSU and @Iowa aren’t on the schedule. (I’m taking the separation between the top 9 and bottom 3 in RPI to be significant at this point.)
I agree that we can’t write the title off yet though—this team has showed it can win on the road, @UW, @Gonzaga. Just have to pull out a few more big road wins.
I wish Dawson would play more
Coach Izzo practically slept in his driveway to get him to MSU just to sit and watch games like a walk on.
Whatever it is he doesn’t do well enough that causes him to sit so much is not worth depriving the team of what he does do well. Sure he’s a little overzealous on defense and gets out of position but he’s also a tough cover on the other end if given the chance. I know Coach Izzo thinks his best players are Green and Appling, he only says it over and over again, but I disagree. Dawson is the most talented player in America that’s chained to a bench.
Also Gauna needs to play. Whatever it is that’s holding AP back results in all of his minutes going to Nix and Green. Those are 2 guys with a history of stamina issues. Gauna needs to play if for no other reason than to give those guys a break. If the plan is to have this team peaking in March, I’m afraid Nix and Green might be out of gas by then at this rate.
"Long range from the baseline, Swish!"
Dawson
often is a defensive liability. And he can’t shoot. So many times in order to have your best lineup on the court which is why BK got good minutes on Burke and why AT plays. Thornton, say what you will, knows the system, hustles hard and will hit down an open look now and then, plus he strokes free throws which is nice to have late in games.
Dawson clunks every shot basically, he’s lucky when he makes it in. And his slashing ability is a bit offset by the fact that Keith Appling is better at getting to the rim, so he usually does the driving to the hoop. Yeah he rebounds but Green, AT and PayNix can handle that department pretty well too.
Also I think one of the keys to getting Nix to his conditioning peak is to play him a lot like we have been. He’s clearly outclassing Payne lately, I think Payne still doesn’t know how to play the defensive scheme correctly in certain situations, which is highly frustrating since I think that Payne could and should be averaging about 10 a game. But I think Gauna DOES play for the reason you stated already. But he’s just simply not as good an option, especially since Izzo is more concerned about developing his junior and sophmore over a freshman.
by Loneytunes on Jan 19, 2012 2:50 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Dawson can't shoot but he can score
there’s not a single player that’s been on the court that hasn’t made mistakes on defense
Dawson seems to get penalized the most for his mistakes.
The frustrating part is that he had 2 good sequences on Tuesday before he was banished from the game. I’m all for making him a complete player that goes hard all the time but his minutes seem to be declining so sitting him is not getting the message thru. I think he needs to play because he can help.
BK on the other hand used the bench time as motivation to do what the coaches wanted. He’s going to start playing more which is great but will end up taking even more minutes from Dawson which is a shame.
"Long range from the baseline, Swish!"
I'd suggest avoid looking at each in-game decision as a "Developmental Strategy."
When Dawson isn’t on the floor, it’s not because Izzo’s trying to send a message necessarily. Other players are getting more minutes because, according to Izzo I’m guessing, they improve Michigan State’s ability to win the game they’re in.
See what I’m saying? Dawson’s not playing because his defense has been poor and over the course of a game, his added value tends to decrease. AT stretches the floor and gives MSU more of a threat from distance. Dawson’s not quite able to create his own shot yet, doesn’t play with his back to the basket and compounds this with his struggles defensively.
Dawson will be a very good player. He’s just not there yet. And when you’re trying to win a Big Ten title, you can’t afford to keep him in games when he’s struggling. Especially considering there are better options in certain situations.
by The Birchman on Jan 19, 2012 2:53 PM CST up reply actions
i'm with you
I think it can hurt a player’s development to ask him to do things he isn’t ready or able to do.
Not to mention the potential ramification of simply giving a player minutes to “develop” instead of making him earn those additional minutes during practice or in games.
BK is a great example. Izzo has been raving about his work in practice, and in limited minutes for the last few weeks. And now we are starting to see him crack the rotation even playing critical minutes against UM.
Not to mention, Dawson is a STARTER. He’s not languishing on the bench every night. He’s getting an opportunity. When was the last time Izzo started a freshman on a team that was a contender for a conference championship?
by trivialstuff16 on Jan 19, 2012 4:59 PM CST up reply actions
Good call, forgot Izzo had him as a starter
But looking back he averaged 17.9 mpg that year. Dawson is getting 20.3 so far this year
by trivialstuff16 on Jan 19, 2012 8:17 PM CST up reply actions
I'm not sure how to interpret the decision not to play him
I was just throwing out a theory.
Struggling players are allowed to stay in games all of the time, but Dawson is not.
Each of the seniors have struggled mightily in one way or another in the last 2 games with no reduction in minutes.
"Long range from the baseline, Swish!"
I see what you're saying.
But Draymond Green isn’t coming out, and for good reason. He’s the best player on this team and the hope will always be that he works his way out of his struggles mid-game, because he’s proven he’s better than that.
And I don’t really think AT has struggled mightily (unless I’m missing another senior?) at all recently. Certainly his ceiling isn’t as high as BD’s is, but his floor has been much higher the last few games. You pretty much know what you get every time AT steps on the floor.
Not so much with Dawson. At least not recently anyways.
by The Birchman on Jan 19, 2012 5:33 PM CST up reply actions
Dawson has been dissapointing so far
Sure, it is way to early to give up on him and he has so much basketball left to play but I dont see anything he does better than at the beginning of the year. Actually he looked much better in the first game against UNC. His confidence is shattered. He will never take a jumper from the outside. Sure, he is not a good shooter as of now but when you restrain wing players from shooting it you completely damage their development. The same thing happened to Raymar Morgan who was actually a pretty good jumpshooter at the beginning of his career. I fear that Dawson will develop into the same kind of one dimensional player, a big, strong small forward with no handles, no jumpshot and a lack of offensive awareness.
Again, I still have high hopes for Dawson and I think he can turn it around. But as of now he is really struggling in terms of confidence and mental concentration. The expectations, the injury, the spotty minutes… there are propably a lot of reasons for his struggles. But in the end you just have to be dissapointed when you see him not take any steps forward and get beat off the dribble by future Walmart employees like Stu Douglass.
by Flaming Mo on Jan 19, 2012 5:07 AM CST via mobile reply actions
Yea, he's definitely struggling on defense.
Once he gets that squared away I think he’ll see the minutes we want from him and his offense will start to blossom. As it stands it doesn’t seem like he’s in the same flow as the rest of the team when he’s in there. His athleticism stands out from time to time with an offensive board and put back but those are just individual plays.
And yes, AT has been much more valuable in the past 4 games or so. Good to see for sure.
by Drew Perkins on Jan 19, 2012 8:09 AM CST up reply actions
BD still has a long way to go
In order to be able to dominate like he did against the little boys he played in high school. I disagree that his confidence is shattered because he always still seems to be having a good time out there. Izzo wants him to learn the system and play ball his way. I’m ok with sitting him if Izzo feels it’s the right thing to do, plus it will keep him from dreaming about the NBA too much and maybe he’ll stick around for 2-3 more years.
by StickyGreen on Jan 19, 2012 8:36 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Thornton
I’ll give him a lot of credit and he is doing a good job but the team going forward this development is not a good thing. He will get exposed against bigger, more athletic teams and we need Dawson out there and have him perform. And I’ll not understand it if he does not even develop atleast a servicable jumpshot sooner or later. It is so obvious to see what his game is lacking and if the coaching staff cant get him to get better, this would be a huge mistake.
by Flaming Mo on Jan 19, 2012 12:32 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Well, when it comes to his shot
they can’t just conjure it up. He has to work on it, which I’m sure he is. The bottom line is he came in with tons of athletic ability, which covered for a lack of a shot at the HS level, where he could just outjump everyone. Now, he’s facing players that are closer to his athletic level and they are sagging off because they don’t see a threat from his jump shot. He’s a freshman – the coaches here haven’t had much time to work on his shot. I expect it will improve but they can’t turn him into John Diebler with hops overnight.
by TheCrestedHelm on Jan 19, 2012 1:17 PM CST up reply actions
I'm confused.
Why would Thornton playing very well hurt this team’s development? I’m guessing you’re implying that Dawson will be stunted if his minutes decline, but is there any truth to this? I’m sure correlation between “minutes played freshman year” and “development of player over 4 year career” is minimal at best.
Who knows? Maybe he NEEDS to take a step back and let the game come to him. I just don’t understand how having MORE contributing players is a bad thing.
Put your best team on the floor now. No questions asked.
by The Birchman on Jan 19, 2012 2:46 PM CST up reply actions
The reason
Is that certain teams in the nation are too athletic and too big for Thornton to be a factor and even worse, he will get exposed. He will be ok for a little time but in the end we need athletes like Dawson who are big and strong enough (theoretically) to compete with the Carolinas and Dukes of this world.
I hope Im wrong but by the time we might face these calibers in the NCAA I hope Dawson has regained some minutes and has developed and we dont have to rely on AT for 25 minutes a night.
by Flaming Mo on Jan 20, 2012 6:42 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Based on these last two games it seems our team may struggle against
teams with perimeter oriented big men. Nix at times and especially Payne seem to struggle when they have to defend on the perimeter. It also leads to worse interior defense with our bigs out by the 3 point line.
We’re still in a very good place in the Big Ten, especially with our upcoming schedule.
The gap is closing, in the right way
I don’t see any evidence that our program is slipping – we’re still in contention for the B1G title in what was supposed to be something of a rebuilding year. Statistically we look like one of the best teams in the nation, so our performance metrics are solid. We’re pulling in plenty good recruiting classes. Everything looks good from my perspective. The gap is closing because Michigan is getting better, not because we’re getting worse. They have a good coach, he’s attracting better players to the program, and they are playing better. I’d rather we beat them every time we play them, but if we have to lose to them, I’d rather it be because they’re getting better than because we’re getting worse.
Unless we start having a string of dysfunctional seasons like last year where the talent is there but the wins don’t come, I’m pretty happy. We’re always going to lose some games to good teams. U of M is becoming another good team, ergo we’re going to start losing to them from time to time. This is not a reason to panic, it’s basically the way college basketball works.
by TheCrestedHelm on Jan 19, 2012 10:43 AM CST reply actions 4 recs
Excellent post
We have to learn a new way to hate U of M, in response to changing circumstances of them being a good team.
by witless chum on Jan 19, 2012 11:02 AM CST up reply actions
Conditioning
I am getting tired of hearing about how players are tired at the end of games…All they do is play / practice! How can they be tired? If it’s because of certain players (Nix), call a TO, play zone! This is my one and only gripe regarding my man Izzo. All in all, 1pt loss on the rd is no big deal, in a way its encouraging. UM played lights out, with a Freshmen making some amazing plays, playing at home, MSU had it’s best player play poorly, and we still only lose by 1, and had a nice look to win it? I’m still more upset for losing to NW…GO GREEN!
well it's kind of an excuse not really a fact
According to Rexrode’s chat, Nix wasn’t tired but patted his chest which was perceived as asking out. By all accounts Nix is still in good shape even though he looks bigger.
Payne on the other hand has some kind of lung capacity issue which means he’ll likely wear down sooner than most and is why Gauna needs to play more.
As for “play zone” LOL! That’s a good one.
"Long range from the baseline, Swish!"
A couple more notes
All in all the loss wasnt really bad. We went into a tough environment and almost came out with a win against a ranked team. Anyways, I think there are some things which could be easily corrected and help the team going forward:
- Appling has to start to work on his left hand. He is incredibly quick and a great driver but you can see teams start to cheat to his right hand and force him left. With him still pummeling to the right it forces him into tough situations, stops ball movement and gives the defense a chance to recover.
- It puzzles me that we do not post up Green on the low block more. It was criminal that they didnt do it against an undersized Michigan team. Instead we try to force feed much less talented players like Payne and Nix in the post which led to tons of turnovers. Green has the ability to iniate the entire offense from the low block.
- At times we overrun our plays and are kinda gun shy because of the system. Sure, it is what makes Izzo great but sometimes I wish that they would take advantage of mismatches and of having a superior player.
- Payne has to learn how to defend the pick and roll. He was atrocious last night. He is quick and long enough to be adequate at it. It is certainly a problem that Payne and Nix even while making strides are still possessiong some things extremely slow mentally.
Lot of critisizm I know but I think this is the only way to get better. This team has a lot going for it and they can do some real damage this season despite being young.
by Flaming Mo on Jan 19, 2012 12:44 PM CST via mobile reply actions
Pete
“Sure, Michigan had two wins last year over one of the most dysfunctional MSU squads in history…”
Come on, if this doesn’t sound like sour grapes, i don’t know what does. Are we going to start to discount MSU’s 4 straight in football because of a 3-9 and 5-7 Michigan team that was dysfunctional under DickRod? I didn’t think so.
Those wins over Michigan are...
….less impressive than beating a Carr team in late 90s was. I think that’s a fact you can’t argue with. It means more than four straight wins over Purdue, though, because it’s a huge rivalry and no matter how bad or dysfunctional a team may be, it almost always gets up for its Rivals. It’s interesting that MSU beat the two better Michigan teams in that stretch more comfortably than the two you mention.
All you can do is beat the teams you get to play, though, in the case of U of M basketball or MSU football. I think you’re making a false dichotomy by turning honest context into discounting.
by witless chum on Jan 19, 2012 1:59 PM CST up reply actions
wins are wins
they could play 3 on 5 with the 3 being Larry Moe and Curly and a loss to Michigan would still hurt like hell
"Long range from the baseline, Swish!"
by spartyball on Jan 19, 2012 5:06 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Agree 100%, T.T.
Beilein is a fine coach and can put Michigan’s recruiting strengths to full advantage. Give them their due, because they’re going to be around for a while.
Question
When was the last time MSU brought in a great shooter who actually turned out to be one? Kirk Manns? Izzo needs to comb through Ohio or Indiana and get him one of those cocky earthbound hicks who will not get Jason Klein Disease™ every time an open shot presents itself.
I think Drew Neitzel was here more recently than Kirk Manns
He was a career ~40% three point shooter. Last year Lucas shot almost 40% from beyond the arc, and Appling was over 41% beyond the arc. This year Trice, Wood, Green, Kearney and Thornton are all shooting pretty well from beyond the arc. As a team, in conference play, we’re shooting 43.5 percent on three pointers. Outside shooting is not a problem at present.
by TheCrestedHelm on Jan 20, 2012 11:32 AM CST up reply actions
Additional confirmation
That we are not remotely out of this race. Illinois goes down to Penn State tonight.
So really, a third of the way through the season we are back where we started in my opinion. OSU is probably the best team, with a bunch of teams that are close trailing them. If they stumble MSU has as good a shot as anyone to win the conference.
by trivialstuff16 on Jan 19, 2012 10:14 PM CST reply actions
6.5 games in (half the conference has played 6, half 7)
and everyone has at least two wins and at least two losses. This conference is still wide open.
13-5 will probably win the conference this year (heck, 12-6 might, but I wouldn’t count on that).
I've got this terrible pain in all the diodes down my left-hand side.
Bradley-Terry rankings for college football and basketball: because there aren't enough computer rankings already.
Winning on the road
Including tonight’s game, B1G teams are 13-26 on the road, meaning lose two out of every three.
Right now, MSU is 2-2, and has played more road games than any of the other 2 loss teams – Illinois, tOSU, & Purde have 3 each, and M has only left AA twice so far. So that’s in our favor.
What’s not is, the away games are at Illinois, OSU, Purdue, Minnesota, & Indiana. It really would have been nice to take the game at NW, which everybody was marking as a “W” in the schedule, or to have stolen the game in AA, which we really should have lost by ten based on how our team played.
If the Spartans can somehow go 3-2 on the road to close the season, and hold the home court, there’s your B1G title (and likely non-co, too).
Tal order indeed
But all of the other 2 loss teams have at least one more road game to play than msu (and M has two more).
I could see us winning at Minnesota
and we did win at Wisconsin, which most of us probably had penciled in as a loss, so in that sense we’re basically where we probably thought we’d be – starting the season 2-2 in road games. NW or UM would have been really nice to have but we’re basically on track.
by TheCrestedHelm on Jan 20, 2012 11:45 AM CST up reply actions
anything can happen
this conference is like an old school WWF battle royal
even Andre the Giant can be thrown over that top rope
just because you’re a preseason favorite or ranked team doesn’t mean you get to leave anybody’s gym with a win
I think every team in the conference understands that now and every team feels like they have a chance.
Should be quite a race.
The Journey hit the jackpot this season.
"Long range from the baseline, Swish!"
Interesting article on Payne...
and by interesting – I mean that unfortunately it is not very encouraging.
http://www.mlive.com/spartans/index.ssf/2012/01/michigan_states_adreian_payne_1.html
Long story short – he doesn’t have the normal lung capacity for someone his size so he gets winded extremely quickly/easily and basically nothing will ever change that. Sounds like the ceiling on his conditioning is apparently low.
Not related to the MSU/UM game
But I thought I’d put it here. I caught bits and pieces of the UM/Arkansas game yesterday, including Novak’s head-hunting on that break-away. He is such an infuriating, completely worthless piece of trash. I’m glad I’ve only got so see that stupid thug rat one more time.
Tonight's going to be a good night.
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