Meet Derrick Payne

by KJ@theonlycolors on Feb 15, 2012 7:47 PM CST in Michigan State Spartans Basketball

Entering the season, the unexpected (but entirely understandable) decision by Delvon Roe to end his basketball career a year early created a pretty big hole in the Michigan State lineup. Both Derrick Nix, after two seasons in the program, and Adreian Payne, after one college season coming off some very impressive high school accolades, remained major question marks in terms of being able to provide consistent, sustained productivity. Still, Tom Izzo had little choice but to hand the 5-spot in the lineup over to the two of them, and see what the results would be.

While there have been a few bumps along the way, the results have been about as good as we could have hoped for. Through 12 games of Big Ten play, Nix and Payne are averaging a combined 15 points and 7 rebounds in 37 minutes per game. The table after the jump provides a rough comparison of total production from MSU's center spot this season (Nix/Payne) and last season (Roe/Nix/Payne)--using conference-only numbers:

	2011	2012
Min/G	41.1	37.2
Pts/G	11.8	15.0
FGM/G	4.4	6.2
FGA/G	7.9	11.3
FG%	56.3	54.4
FTM/G	2.7	2.6
FTA/G	4.8	4.2
FT%	57.0	62.0
OReb/G	4.0	3.1
DReb/G	4.8	4.1
Ast/G	2.0	1.1
TO/G	2.0	2.4
Stl/G	1.1	1.8
Blk/G	2.0	0.8
PF/G	4.9	4.4

As great as Roe's contributions were to the program, he was never able to develop into a consistent scoring threat (largely due to the never-ending problems with his knees). Roe averaged just 2.2 made field goals per game in Big Ten play this season. Collectively, the MSU centers are producing 1.8 more made field goals per game this season while maintaining the same level of net free throw production.

The rebounding and block numbers are down a tad, but in the ballpark. (The decline in defensive rebounding production can be attributed to Draymond Green's gargantuan presence on the defensive glass. There are 10 players on a basketball court. But Green comes down one out of every three shots a Big Ten opponent misses.)

MSU has certainly missed Roe at times--particularly in the two losses against teams with nominal post guys who can shoot from deep (Northwestern and Michigan)--but, for the most part, Nix and Payne have more than adequately filled his shoes. Their defense against a more traditional post player on Saturday led to the following splendid factoid:

Despite playing the full 40 minutes, Sullinger did not catch the ball in the post inside the paint a single time against the Spartans.

To put the productivity of Nix and Payne in further context, here's what the combined stats of "Derrick Payne" look like relative to the three Big Ten centers in the mix for all-conference honors (stats are prior to tonight's games):

	D. Payne	Sullinger	Zeller	Leonard
Min/G	37.2	31.9	28.6	32.8
Pts/G	15.0	18.8	15.6	12.9
FGM/G	6.2	6.6	5.6	5.1
FGA/G	11.3	12.2	8.8	9.3
FG%	54.4	54.4	63.5	55.0
FTM/G	2.6	4.9	4.4	2.8
FTA/G	4.2	6.7	5.5	4.1
FT%	62.0	73.6	79.2	67.3
OReb/G	3.1	3.3	1.2	2.6
DReb/G	4.1	5.9	4.8	5.1
Ast/G	1.1	0.7	1.1	0.9
TO/G	2.4	2.4	1.5	2.6
Stl/G	1.8	1.7	0.8	0.4
Blk/G	0.8	0.8	1.1	1.8
PF/G	4.4	3.4	3.3	3.6

While Jared Sullinger and Cody Zeller are clearly more assertive/efficient offensive threats (adjusting for playing time), Derrick Payne is basically Meyers Leonard, except he's the second offensive option among frontline players, not the first. And, if one of him is in foul trouble, there's another one of him to put out on the court.

Finally, one more data dump:

Opponent	Minutes	Points	Rebounds
@North Carolina	28	16	12
@Duke	38	4	13
Texas Southern	32	18	13
Arkansas-Little Rock	39	8	7
Milwaukee	34	17	6
@Eastern Michigan	36	18	12
Florida State	40	4	3
Nebraska Omaha	39	20	8
Central Connecticut St	29	19	9
@Gonzaga	42	17	9
Bowling Green	40	20	11
UMKC	31	17	5
Lehigh	33	13	7
Indiana	38	22	7
@Nebraska	38	13	12
@Wisconsin	42	12	5
Iowa	35	13	10
@Northwestern	27	10	5
@Michigan	38	17	4
Purdue	35	21	7
Minnesota	41	16	8
@Illinois	40	10	8
Michigan	38	11	9
Penn State	35	14	6
@Ohio State	39	21	5

Derrick Payne has been pretty darn consistent. He's scored in double digits in 18 straight games. And Tom Izzo has trusted him to play at least 35 minutes in all but one Big Ten game.

And, hey, how about that power forward! Draymond Green comes in at fifth in ESPN's latest player-of-the-year straw poll. While I don't think he's going to catch Thomas Robinson and Anthony Davis in the hype race, he should be in the mix for a first team all-American spot. The problem is that all the highly-touted players at the national level this season are forwards or centers. Marcus Denmon (Missouri) is the top guard in the ESPN poll at #7 and Isaiah Canaan (Murray State) is the top point guard at #9.

What we need is a movement to get Green consideration as a first team all-American- . . . at the point guard spot. I don't think the voters vote on a position-by-position basis, but I assume that they generally try to approximately balance out their first-team votes by position, since the all-American team generally look like something you could plausibly run out on an actual basketball court. Well, Green ranks in the top ten in his conference in assists, and, when the MSU offense is really clicking, he's the guy initiating the action. He's even been known to lead the occasional fast break.

I propose, therefore, (and have already set into motion) the world's clunkiest hashtag:

#DayDay4FirstTeamAllAmericanPointGuard

Get to it.

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Comments

Great analysis, KJ (as always).

The element that Paynix brings that no other single center can match is two different body types and defensive skill strengths. Nix is the more physical of the two; Payne the longer and more athletic. It gives Izzo matchup flexibility that none of the other single guys can match, which makes Derrick Payne just that more of an asset to this team.

by spartanjed on Feb 15, 2012 8:03 PM CST reply actions

Good point

by KJ@theonlycolors on Feb 15, 2012 8:18 PM CST up reply actions

On Sullinger

I think you get more bang for your buck, too, by disrupting a big time player like Sully by having two guys who can bother him in two different ways.

"And how much are intangibles worth? 10%? 20%?" - kj@theonlycolors

by intrpdtrvlr on Feb 16, 2012 9:17 AM CST up reply actions

so is an extra scholarship available

Cool posting.
Sounds like an action movie title.
Perhaps Roe can star in it.
You could’ve also gone with “one wrecks the other destroys” the classic EPMD line.

"Long range from the baseline, Swish!"

by spartyball on Feb 15, 2012 9:36 PM CST reply actions

Now if...

we can redesign Derrick Payne so that Payne gets some of Derrick’s strength and Derrick gets some of Payne’s sveltness, imagine what the numbers might look like.

by donaldo on Feb 16, 2012 8:06 AM CST reply actions

It's good to see the productivity maintained

using only conference only stats. I took a look at the front court production in a fan post a couple months back, but at that point we’d only played a couple of conference games. The conclusion was that Green was being Green, but Payne and Nix were an upgrade on offense over Roe. Roe, through no fault of his own (it was those knee problems) was never more than a role player on offense. His usage rate was really low, although he scored efficiently when he tried to. Nix and Payne score as well as Roe did, but importantly, they’re much more likely to shoot, which makes them more productive on offense.

Another reason Nix and Payne’s rebounding is a little down this year is Dawson – the guy is a hoover on the offensive glass. Summers was a good rebounder for his size and position, but Dawson’s rebounding percentage has Summers beat by a country mile. Green being Green, plus Dawson, leaves fewer boards for the 5 spot to clean up.

Where I’m really surprised is that we haven’t missed Roe more on the defensive end. I suppose our perimeter D may have improved some with the departure of Summers (and to a lesser extent Lucas – I never thought he was a bad defender but he was probably average, whereas Appling is above average). Summers especially was a rather lacadasical defender, but we’re so much better defensively that I think our post D must be at least as good, if not better, than it was last year. We basically have a tandem that is approximating the production of an all-Conference center.

by TheCrestedHelm on Feb 16, 2012 8:53 AM CST reply actions

Good point re: Dawson

Meant to mention that.

by KJ@theonlycolors on Feb 16, 2012 11:12 AM CST up reply actions

I speak for all of us when I say: it's great to see your name next to a new post every once in a while

You’re just too good at crunching relevant data and explaining it succinctly to not do this at least once in a while!

Kudos, KJ.

by cwel87 on Feb 16, 2012 9:13 AM CST reply actions 1 recs

Thanks

One post a week is looking like my sweet spot.

by KJ@theonlycolors on Feb 16, 2012 11:12 AM CST up reply actions

Also: #DayDayforB1GPOY

While I would LOVE to him as a 1st-team AA as well, I think the POY award would be more important and significant for him in terms of his career and legacy (and would make him a fascinating case study for jersey retirement). At this point, it’s probably down to Green, Sullinger, and Taylor, and a lot will be determined down the stretch.

"It was worth it. Every needle, every dose of medicine that I've taken. That's why you play the game. A chance to be on a Final Four team, a chance to win championships." Delvon Roe

by Ducking Delvon on Feb 16, 2012 10:23 AM CST reply actions

I think

That if we have a nice tournament, Draymond has more than a strong case for jersey retirement. It’s not like with Kalin, were he was undoubtedly a great player, but didn’t take hold of the leadership role as he may have been expected to. Izzo has called DayDay the perfect Spartan, and with that kind of endorsement and his accolades, I have a hard time believing #23 won’t be hanging in the rafters in the next few years. If he comes away with the B1GPOY, he’s gotta be a lock.

by one23 on Feb 16, 2012 11:41 AM CST up reply actions

Spartans have to win the conference...

…or Green has no shot at POY. People love to talk about his all around game and leadership, but at the end of the day if he doesn’t deliver a title (and probably an outright one at that) the voters are going to go with Sully. Someone has to stand head and shoulders above the rest for a non conference champ to take home POY in the B1G.

I don’t agree with it, but thats the reality.

by RoninX on Feb 16, 2012 11:48 AM CST up reply actions

Co-POY

That’s definitely the reality. Kalin benefited from it in ‘09 when there wasn’t anyone else who stood out. On the contrary, Respert was so good in ’95 that he won despite MSU not winning the league.

However, there is also precedent for co-POY, which has happened 3 times: 1989 (Glen Rice and Jay Edwards), 1999 (Mateen and Scoonie Penn), and 2000 (Mo Pete and AJ Guyton).

"It was worth it. Every needle, every dose of medicine that I've taken. That's why you play the game. A chance to be on a Final Four team, a chance to win championships." Delvon Roe

by Ducking Delvon on Feb 16, 2012 2:52 PM CST up reply actions