The Dawsoning
Always focus on the bright side of life, right? Coming out of Tuesday night's stinktacular in Champaign, that's approach to life requires a pretty narrow focus. The only glimmer of brightness for Michigan State against Illinois was Branden Dawson (on offense, at least--we shouldn't lose sight of the fact that the game was actually MSU's best defensive performance of the Big Ten season to date, by a decent margin).
Dawson was the only Spartan to make more than 33% of his field goal attempts (not even a 1-for-2 to be found in the box score). He just cleared that bar, making 4 of 11 attempts from the floor. Add in 4 points at the free throw line, and Dawson posted a line of 12 points, 13 rebounds (7 of them on offense), and just 1 turnover.
Over the last three games, Dawson is averaging 14.0 points per game on 60.7% field goal shooting. Those performances came following a two-game stretch--the losses at Northwestern and Michigan--in which Tom Izzo only put Dawson on the floor for a combined 29 minutes. He's played nearly that number in each of the last two games (27 and 28).
That gets to the number one key for Dawson--defense. Dawson is as talented as any player Izzo has brought into the program. And he's flashed that talent at different points of the season, scoring in double digits on nine occasions and grabbing four-plus offensive rebounds on six occasions. He's been exposed on defense at times, though, reducing his playing time at key moments.
The good news is that his defensive weakness is arguably a function of his athleticism. He's eager to use that athleticism to go after steals. And it works fairly often; he's had seven multi-steal games. But that instinct doesn't always jive with Izzo's defensive philosophy, which emphasizes staying between the ball and the basket to force tough shots, rather than maximizing turnovers. Dawson's excessive aggressiveness was a particular liability against the back-cutting-like-a-fool Wildcats and Wolverines.
Dawson can clearly defend anyone when he's on an island. He's currently leading the Big Ten in block percentage in conference play. It's just a matter of adjusting his instincts to work within the defensive system.
Which brings us to Sunday. Given the three-game winning streak John Beilein has going, there's no reason to think he won't go with his small lineup, with Zack Novak at the four-spot, for most of the game. And, while Draymond Green is a possibility to play (no one will be able to keep him off the floor if he receives anything close to medical clearance), it's hard to expect that he'll be able stay on the court for his usual 30+ minutes. That means Dawson and Austin Thornton playing at the four. While Thornton can certainly hold his own, Dawson is much more likely to impose himself on offense against Novak, either in the post or on the glass. He just can't give the points back on defense.
Given his lofty accolades coming out of high school--and the seemingly perfect fit he represents for a Tom Izzo team in terms of rebounding and transition scoring--Dawson's career has gotten to off to a slightly slower start than we might have hoped. But he's picking a good time to emerge as a key scorer. He almost single-handedly kept the team in Tuesday night's game. Sunday, he'll get a chance to push them over the top.
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Nice work KJ!
And yeah, Dawson has finally been starting to emerge, and it’s an awesome sight to see!
But I have to question running out BD/AT at the 4 on Sunday. Even if M does go small, I don’t see why Dawson and AT won’t play the three with Green at the 4 & Paynix at the 5. We saw in the first M game, plus a few others against smaller lineups, that Nix cannot be stopped offensively down low. Jordan Morgan simply cannot guard him. Also, Green is more than capable of handling Novak on D, and makes for a huge mismatch on the other end.
With that said, running out BD & AT at the 3 leaves them guarding someone like a Tim Hardaway, who IMO, is one of the more overrated players in the B1G. Hardaway has athleticism, and sometimes can shoot J’s, but that shot is very inconsistent and he has a terrible handle (especially considering that his father owned one of the nastiest cross-overs of all time).
I'm totally cool with this
as long as Draymond’s knee cooperates. I think I’m a little less optimistic on that front than others are.
by KJ@theonlycolors on Feb 3, 2012 12:18 PM CST up reply actions
We've tried this the last two years
On paper, Green is a huge mismatch on the offensive end against U of M. In practice, Novak seems to have gotten into his head – he has just not had it against U of M in the past three games. 9 points, 5 assists last year in Ann Arbor was his peak performance against them. This year 7 points, 3 assists (11 rebounds to his credit). I’d like to think this game would be his breakout game against them – he’s due – but I’m skeptical he’ll be able to play much, and even if he does, it seems like they are able to do something defensively that neutralizes and/or frustrates him.
by TheCrestedHelm on Feb 3, 2012 1:00 PM CST up reply actions
IMO, to do well vs. M
He needs to stay down low, with his back to the basket, then turn & put it in. Easier said than done, though, bc M is known for collapsing inside, and with their “active hands,” they do a good job of knocking balls loose when people put them on the floor in the paint.
"He just can't give the points back on defense."
There’s the big question. He only played 12 minutes against UM last time, presumably because he was making too many defensive mistakes. Will he correct them in time to be the difference maker Sunday?
He wasn't killing the team in the last game
He had actually made 2 positive plays before his banishment and he absolutely could’ve helped in those last 2 ill fated possessions.
I’ve never been on board with burying a talented player because of defense because mismatches go both ways but that’s the Izzo Way.
Hopefully he stays consistent on defense so he can stay on the floor.
Back to back honorable mentions in cbssports.com’s freshman rankings too.
People are noticing.
"Long range from the baseline, Swish!"
On the topic of the post
Dawson has been coming on of late and it is encouraging to see. We now have a guy at just about every position who can carry a substantial part of the scoring load on any given night. I think he is playing better D – he may have broken out sooner if not for tweaking his knee against UNC in the first game of the season. Let’s hope he’s learned to defend the backcut because having him on the floor playing effectively on both ends against U of M would be really nice. He’s an ubelievable rebounder – I think he’s leading the team in offensive rebounding percentage, which means he’s in elite company.
Just needs to develop a 15 footer
He develops a little mid range J and gets a little more consistent shooting he’s going to be scary. Honestly he should destroy Zach Novak on both ends of the floor. I expect 1 or 2 empathic dunks by Dawson.
Our defense as a whole is a lot better at home and I think we can rattle UofM if we jump out early. However, that means hitting jump shots since they are going to collapse inside.
Appling better out play Burke this time or he’s a total chump, and if that dumpster fire Smotritcz crosses over Payne again he should be kicked out of school lol.
I can’t even imagine a loss here so i won’t and then i want the rubber match in the B1G Tourney to settle it once and for all.
I wonder if part of Dawson's recent success
is he’s fully healthy after he hurt his knee against UNC? Multiple times the last couple games I’ve been in awe at high he’s gotten on rebounds/dunks.
Agreed
He has recently looked more like the jumping jack he was in the 1st half vs. UNC than any other time since.
One thing that amazes me is his second leap. Not only can the guy get off the floor with the best of them, but when he comes down, he can go right back up, quickly, strongly, and getting huge air. That ability is extraordinarly helpful on the boards, especially on the offensive end.
Food for thought:
Dawson has the third best Defensive Rating of all players with substantial minutes on the roster thus far, per Sports-reference’s CBB section.

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