Therapy By Numbers: Conference-Only Big Ten PORPAG

#DayDay4B10POTY

Points Over Replacement Per Adjusted Game (PORPAG):

  • Estimates the average number of points a player has produced above "replacement level" in a typical game--i.e. what the 10th guy on an average team would get you if you had to use him instead.
  • Like all basketball statistics, occurs within the context of a team dynamic (particularly true for low-usage guys).
  • Tells you absolutely nothing about a player's defensive performance.

The numbers below are based on conference-only data from StatSheet. Replacement level is set at 88.0; pace is set at 62 possessions/game; minimum minute percentage of 40.0%. Last year's numbers, along with links to previous PORPAG posts, are here. Data dump after the jump. (Also: Drew Cannon at BP has made an interesting adjustment for replacement value based on usage rate. I haven't attempted anything like that here. Just making the adjustment intuitively.)

Player Year Team OffRtg Poss% Min% PORPAG
John Shurna Sr Northwestern 117.2 26.6 95.3 4.58
Matt Gatens Sr Iowa 128.7 19.1 90.1 4.35
Jordan Taylor Sr Wisconsin 117.2 24.9 92.6 4.17
Cody Zeller Fr Indiana 124.0 24.8 71.4 3.94
Deshaun Thomas So Ohio State 127.2 20.5 78.1 3.89
Robbie Hummel Sr Purdue 115.0 25.5 83.1 3.55
Jared Sullinger So Ohio State 112.9 27.8 80.6 3.46
Draymond Green Sr Michigan State 111.1 27.8 84.4 3.35
Trey Burke Fr Michigan 107.9 27.4 92.6 3.13
Tim Frazier Jr Penn State 103.8 33.1 95.0 3.09
D.J. Byrd Jr Purdue 128.5 21.8 56.1 3.07
Lewis Jackson Sr Purdue 114.4 23.5 67.2 2.59
Zack Novak Sr Michigan 119.9 15.3 82.5 2.50
Jordan Hulls Jr Indiana 112.8 18.9 78.1 2.27
Aaron White Fr Iowa 112.1 21.0 68.5 2.15
Dave Sobolewski Fr Northwestern 110.4 16.7 91.8 2.12
Drew Crawford Jr Northwestern 103.6 24.9 87.7 2.11
Aaron Craft So Ohio State 114.3 16.2 79.2 2.09
Austin Thornton Sr Michigan State 142.5 10.6 58.1 2.08
Stu Douglass Sr Michigan 116.5 14.4 81.4 2.07
Meyers Leonard So Illinois 105.4 22.7 83.0 2.03
William Buford Sr Ohio State 103.6 23.5 85.6 1.94
Julian Welch Jr Minnesota 109.0 22.9 65.2 1.94
Christian Watford Jr Indiana 105.7 22.4 75.1 1.85
Brandon Ubel Jr Nebraska 119.7 13.7 68.1 1.83
Brandon Paul Jr Illinois 99.3 28.9 90.6 1.83
Reggie Hearn Jr Northwestern 112.1 17.3 70.5 1.82
Josh Gasser So Wisconsin 112.2 13.3 91.4 1.82
Keith Appling So Michigan State 102.4 24.2 80.0 1.73
Rodney Williams Jr Minnesota 106.2 19.0 80.4 1.73
Ryne Smith Sr Purdue 117.3 12.4 75.8 1.71
Branden Dawson Fr Michigan State 113.4 20.8 50.6 1.65
Lenzelle Smith Jr. So Ohio State 114.1 15.1 64.6 1.58
Victor Oladipo So Indiana 103.4 23.0 69.2 1.52
Austin Hollins So Minnesota 108.5 17.5 68.1 1.52
Tim Hardaway Jr So Michigan 98.4 25.7 88.9 1.48
Derrick Nix Jr Michigan State 106.6 22.5 50.2 1.30
Brandon Richardson Sr Nebraska 102.6 16.1 80.7 1.17
Ryan Evans Jr Wisconsin 97.7 24.3 80.5 1.17
Cammeron Woodyard Sr Penn State 102.5 20.4 61.9 1.13
Brandon Wood Sr Michigan State 106.0 15.1 67.0 1.13
Jermaine Marshall So Penn State 98.4 24.0 72.2 1.11
Jordan Morgan So Michigan 103.7 17.4 64.8 1.09
Alex Marcotullio Jr Northwestern 110.3 15.0 52.7 1.09
Kelsey Barlow Jr Purdue 101.1 21.5 60.4 1.06
Roy Devyn Marble So Iowa 96.7 22.9 82.6 1.02
Terone Johnson So Purdue 98.4 24.4 59.9 0.94
Joseph Bertrand So Illinois 100.8 18.4 62.9 0.92
Adreian Payne So Michigan State 104.7 20.3 42.8 0.90
Travis Carroll So Purdue 118.9 9.8 46.7 0.88
Mike Bruesewitz Jr Wisconsin 100.1 16.7 69.2 0.87
Davide Curletti Sr Northwestern 104.1 16.6 52.1 0.86
Will Sheehey So Indiana 106.9 18.2 40.1 0.86
Zach McCabe So Iowa 100.2 19.9 56.1 0.84
Evan Smotrycz So Michigan 102.2 18.5 49.3 0.80
Dylan Talley Jr Nebraska 99.3 22.0 51.0 0.79
Bo Spencer Sr Nebraska 92.7 29.4 80.1 0.68
Ross Travis Fr Penn State 104.8 14.3 44.7 0.66
Ralph Sampson III Sr Minnesota 96.3 20.8 61.1 0.65
Verdell Jones III Sr Indiana 96.5 20.5 56.0 0.60
Josh Oglesby Fr Iowa 100.9 15.7 46.8 0.59
Jared Berggren Jr Wisconsin 93.7 21.3 70.0 0.53
Andre Hollins Fr Minnesota 95.2 24.9 44.5 0.49
Sasa Borovnjak So Penn State 102.5 13.4 40.6 0.49
Joe Coleman Fr Minnesota 93.8 20.9 51.4 0.38
Melsahn Basabe So Iowa 94.1 20.8 47.5 0.37
Ben Brust So Wisconsin 93.0 17.8 49.5 0.27
Tracy Abrams Fr Illinois 92.1 16.5 61.8 0.26
D.J. Richardson Jr Illinois 89.9 17.8 89.4 0.19
Nick Colella Jr Penn State 92.3 12.7 46.1 0.16
Caleb Walker Sr Nebraska 88.5 17.1 66.3 0.04
Sam Maniscalco Sr Illinois 86.4 9.6 39.7 (0.04)
Toney McCray Sr Nebraska 87.3 24.3 73.9 (0.08)
Jonathan Graham Fr Penn State 84.5 16.3 46.9 (0.17)
Bryce Cartwright Sr Iowa 85.4 23.6 52.5 (0.20)
Matt Glover So Penn State 70.9 12.8 57.6 (0.78)

It was a pretty balanced year at the top--nothing approaching a 2011 Jordan Taylor explosion. And I think you particularly have to discount some of the numbers at the top of the rankings for (1) defense and (2) performance in key games/situations. Hence, the following TOC all-Big Ten first team:

First Team: Taylor, Burke, Hummel, Green, Sullinger

  • Burke should be freshman of the year IMO. He and Zeller were both the key offensive performers on their teams, but Michigan won two more games than IU did, and I think it's hard to argue that Burke had more talent around him (particularly considering Hardaway's decidedly mediocre numbers above).
  • Hummel edges out Shurna based on defense, sentimentality, and bitterness about Shurna coming up one shot short vs. Michigan (twice) and Ohio State.
  • Sullinger over Zeller based on defensive rebounding.
  • Draymond Green will be your Big Ten Player of the Year. In addition to his offensive numbers, he ranks first in the conference in defensive rebounding percentage and seventh in steal percentage.

Second Team: Frazier, Craft, Gatens, Shurna, Zeller

Largely consistent with the numbers, but accounting for Craft's D--which may be referee-enhanced but is difference-making nonetheless. He'll be the defensive player of the year in a landslide, i"m sure.

Third Team: Appling, Jackson, Buford, Crawford, Leonard

A bit of a homer pick with Appling, but I think his defense warrants it. Buford over Thomas because (1) Thomas is the kind of super-talented guy you don't actually want on your team because he takes bad shots at the wrong times and has only a passing interest in playing defense and (2) this.

Zack Novak, low usage rate and all, would go on the third team instead of Leonard if we didn't need a center.

So, speaking of "this." The sharing-a-title-with-an-in-state-rival-you-outperformed-by-6.7-points-per-game-against-a-tougher-schedule thing definitely sucks, but it's obviously the Dawson injury that has us all moping around today. While Dawson's offensive contributions had dwindled of late, anything that reduces your depth going into the tournament is a bad thing. And he was a player that would have given MSU the ability to match up athletically against other top-ten teams in the later rounds of the tournament. I'm not worried about seeding--there's little difference between the paths a 2-seed and a 3-seed need to maneuver through to get to the Final Four. I'm worried about Dawson being absent from the group of players trying to do that maneuvering.

MSU ends the regular season with a depth ratio of 2.80, which is right in the range of Spartan teams of Final Fours past. But with Dawson out and Trice's ankle injury looking like it's going to linger, depth is not an asset at the moment. Brandan Kearney is a capable ball-handler and defender, but he's a non-factor offensively. He hasn't scored a point in his last 85 minutes on the court, covering 8 games. Expect to see more of Russell Byrd in Indy, as he at least provides a different kind of threat that defenses have to keep track of.

Otherwise, we're basically down to a single lineup of players that add value on both ends: Appling, Wood, Thornton, Green, Payne/Nix. (Derrick Payne yesterday, by the way: 19 points, 7 rebounds, 6 blocks--against the best center in the league. The development of those two players remains the biggest storyline of the year.) That's still a very good starting lineup, and you can never discount a Tom Izzo team in March, but it's going to take more good breaks along the way now. (If we can get just half the number we got in 2010 after Lucas went out for the season, we'll be in good shape.)

I'm sorry, our time is up now.

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