FanPost

Defensive PORPAG

Edit: for what ever reason it never fully occurred to me that the defensive usage rates should be summing to 100%. That's an oversight and error on part that I'll fix at some point.


I love PORPAG. I've written about it here a couple times. It's a great snap shot at a players talents, efficiency and how they're used in their teams offense. What it doesn't do is incorporate defense. Well, I'm going to step into the bear trap that is presenting defensive ratings based on simple box score statistics.

Ideally, we'd have 345 stat nerds watching a team's every move on the court and charting what they see, like David Hess started doing last year (and brought to Team Rankings) and the Duke Hoop Blog does. This produced great results from a collaboration between Luke Winn and David Hess for Sports Illustrated. Unfortunately, we don't have that. What we do have are boxscore stats. We also have the wonderful Sports Reference College Basketball site who have Defensive Ratings for each player for since 2009-10. This is the result of about 90 minutes of fooling around in Excel.

Now, I don't need to point out that defense is not offense; it's very subjective and typical box score stats will not capture how good of a defender is. Aaron Craft is a straight baller on defense. Sure, his steals look good, but that only scratches the surface (as the Luke Winn/David Hess/SI piece above talks about) regarding his defensive abilities. Also, defensive ratings based on box score stats skew towards big men.

All of that said, fun is a relative term and I thought that this experiment would be fun. So I grabbed the necessary data to calculate full season PORPAG for offense and defense.

As KJ outlined the other day in his PORPAG post, it sets the 'replacement level' player at an offensive rating of 88. Conversely, I decided that the 'replacement level' PORPAG for defense would then be 112. Is this right? I don't know. Probably not, but I'm not sure.

Secondly, I needed defensive usage rate which is different than offense, obviously. It's also not tracked anywhere. A google search of defensive usage yielded not much, so I'm left to estimate. I have come up with the following:

Forwards: 18%
Wings: 15%
Guards: 12%

Is this right? Again, I have no idea. My theory is that it's easier for big men to affect the game in terms of these box score stats - the things Aaron Craft does off the ball don't show up - than guards do. My guess is that Craft is effectively ending OSU defensive possessions around 20% of the time (if not more) by drawing charges, forcing turnovers, etc etc. Unfortunately, I didn't want to have to manually manipulate the data so much that I'm identifying each teams best defender and guesstimating a defensive usage. So this was simple and the results weren't too cringe-worthy. Craft, likely the conference's best all-around defender comes in sixth overall which is the highest among guards. Also, the usage doesn't so much affect the numbers as the Defensive Rating from the Sports Reference CBB site does. Again, we're getting a broad, big, thumbnail sketch of a players defensive value.

The Top 10 Defenders:

Rk Player Team Yr POS DRtg dPoss% Def
1 Draymond Green MSU SR F 82.9 0.18 2.68
2 Jared Sullinger OSU SO F 83.3 0.18 2.25
3 Jared Berggren WIS JR F 84.1 0.18 2.13
4 Ryan Evans WIS JR W 84.7 0.15 1.91
5 Mike Bruesewitz WIS JR F 89.2 0.18 1.66
6 Aaron Craft OSU SO G 85.7 0.12 1.51
7 Deshaun Thomas OSU SO F 94.4 0.18 1.49
8 Meyers Leonard ILL SO F 95.3 0.18 1.46
9 Cody Zeller IND FR F 93.7 0.18 1.44
10 Jordan Taylor WIS SR G 91.4 0.12 1.36

The Big Man Bias I mentioned comes through here. Craft ranking so highly despite DRtg based on box score stats AND my arbitrary defensive usage rates working against him really provides context to how good he is. Good to see Draymond atop the list. I know that Sullinger struggled down the stretch, but I felt most of that was offensive, save for Derrick Nix abusing him in the regular season finale of which we shall never talk about again.

Now, here's full offensive and defensive PORPAG summed to get a Total PORPAG. The Top 15:

Rk Player Team Yr POS oPoss% Min% dPoss% ORtg DRtg Off Def Total
1 Cody Zeller IND FR F 0.237 0.704 0.18 132.9 93.7 3.53 1.44 4.97
2 Jared Sullinger OSU SO F 0.272 0.702 0.18 121.0 83.3 2.59 2.25 4.84
3 Draymond Green MSU SR F 0.276 0.824 0.18 110.2 82.9 2.04 2.68 4.72
4 Deshaun Thomas OSU SO F 0.229 0.756 0.18 125.8 94.4 3.19 1.49 4.68
5 Zack Novak MICH SR W 0.147 0.829 0.15 128.4 100.3 3.11 0.90 4.02
6 Robbie Hummel PUR SR F 0.271 0.807 0.18 119.5 100.2 2.84 1.06 3.90
7 John Shurna NW SR F 0.279 0.918 0.18 119.7 106.5 3.25 0.56 3.81
8 Meyers Leonard ILL SO F 0.222 0.783 0.18 114.3 95.3 2.30 1.46 3.76
9 Jared Berggren WIS JR F 0.230 0.684 0.18 106.9 84.1 1.44 2.13 3.57
10 Rodney Williams MINN JR F 0.186 0.769 0.18 114.8 98.4 2.30 1.17 3.47
11 Jordan Taylor WIS SR G 0.248 0.889 0.12 117.4 91.4 1.94 1.36 3.31
12 Josh Gasser WIS SO G 0.131 0.848 0.12 119.4 91.4 1.98 1.30 3.28
13 Mike Bruesewitz WIS JR F 0.158 0.651 0.18 108.2 89.2 1.47 1.66 3.12
14 Aaron Craft OSU SO G 0.153 0.773 0.12 114.8 85.7 1.54 1.51 3.06
15 Ryan Evans WIS JR W 0.240 0.753 0.15 104.1 84.7 1.13 1.91 3.04

Like KJ noted, no one really had a standout offensive season this year like Jordan Taylor's 2010-11 season. Remember, this is full-season, which is why guys like Taylor and Shurna aren't higher than they are. They are also sorted by total PORPAG.

And the Michigan State-only angle:

Rk Player Team Yr POS Poss% Min% dPoss% ORtg DRtg Off Def Total
3 Draymond Green MSU SR F 0.276 0.824 0.18 110.2 82.9 2.04 2.68 4.72
21 Adreian Payne MSU SO F 0.195 0.437 0.18 114.7 86.9 1.30 1.22 2.53
23 Austin Thornton MSU SR G 0.115 0.515 0.12 132.6 92.8 1.71 0.74 2.44
27 Keith Appling MSU SO G 0.222 0.753 0.12 109.2 92.7 1.19 1.08 2.27
29 Derrick Nix MSU JR F 0.224 0.475 0.18 107.9 90.5 1.05 1.14 2.19
31 Brandon Wood MSU SR G 0.168 0.646 0.12 116.8 96.0 1.38 0.77 2.15
38 Branden Dawson MSU FR G 0.213 0.514 0.12 113.0 89.1 0.96 0.88 1.83
81 Travis Trice MSU FR G 0.180 0.367 0.12 97.7 92.3 0.26 0.54 0.80
92 Brandan Kearney MSU FR G 0.080 0.197 0.12 104.1 95.5 0.24 0.24 0.48
101 Alex Gauna MSU FR F 0.221 0.109 0.18 98.6 96.1 0.13 0.19 0.32
110 Russell Byrd MSU FR G 0.186 0.103 0.12 98.2 94.7 0.08 0.13 0.21

The Rk is the players overall rank in the Big Ten, I have 167 players total from the 2011-12 season. Again, take the defensive numbers with a grain of salt. Fun to look at, but not definitive.

This is a FanPost, written by a member of the TOC community. It does not represent the official positions of The Only Colors, Inc.--largely because we have no official positions.

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