Your PORPAG-based all-Big Ten teams

USA TODAY Sports

What do the numbers say about the best offensive performers of the 2013 Big Ten basketball season?

Points Over Replacement Per Adjusted Game (PORPAG):

--Estimates the average number of points a player has produced above "replacement level"--i.e. what the 10th guy on an average team would get you if you had to use him instead--in a typical game.

--Like all basketball statistics, occurs within the context of a team dynamic (particularly true for low-usage guys).

--Tells you absolutely nothing about a player's defensive performance.

The numbers below are based on conference-only data from StatSheet. Replacement level is set at 88.0; pace is set at 62 possessions/game; the table covers the top 67 players in the conference by minutes played. Origins of PORPAG are here. Here are the numbers from 2010, 2011, and 2012.

Data dump:

Player Class Team OffRtg Poss% Min% PORPAG
Trey Burke So Michigan 121.3 30.0 90.3 5.60
Cody Zeller So Indiana 116.3 27.6 77.1 3.73
Victor Oladipo Jr Indiana 122.9 23.3 72.6 3.66
Deshaun Thomas Jr Ohio State 110.6 27.5 92.1 3.54
Andre Hollins So Minnesota 113.2 25.7 77.7 3.12
Gary Harris Fr Michigan State 118.6 19.9 79.4 3.00
Glenn Robinson III Fr Michigan 128.3 13.7 85.3 2.92
Jared Swopshire Sr Northwestern 116.4 17.5 85.5 2.63
Adreian Payne Jr Michigan State 118.1 19.7 69.6 2.55
Aaron White So Iowa 110.6 23.7 74.1 2.47
D.J. Richardson Sr Illinois 110.0 20.8 87.1 2.46
Christian Watford Sr Indiana 114.9 19.8 72.6 2.39
Jordan Hulls Sr Indiana 120.3 15.6 75.6 2.35
Sam Dekker Fr Wisconsin 120.4 20.6 54.9 2.27
Austin Hollins Jr Minnesota 111.8 19.2 76.4 2.16
Ben Brust Jr Wisconsin 112.1 16.4 88.4 2.16
D.J. Byrd Sr Purdue 112.0 16.8 78.1 1.96
Nik Stauskas Fr Michigan 112.5 16.6 76.6 1.93
Derrick Nix Sr Michigan State 109.2 20.1 71.8 1.89
Jermaine Marshall Jr Penn State 100.3 26.6 86.8 1.77
Tim Hardaway Jr Jr Michigan 102.9 22.1 86.4 1.76
Trevor Mbakwe Sr Minnesota 105.2 22.4 73.5 1.76
Aaron Craft Jr Ohio State 104.1 19.2 88.7 1.69
Kevin Ferrell Fr Indiana 107.4 18.0 73.3 1.58
A.J. Hammons Fr Purdue 104.1 25.3 61.4 1.55
Roy Devyn Marble Jr Iowa 101.3 25.5 68.4 1.44
Will Sheehey Jr Indiana 110.3 18.9 54.6 1.43
Brandon Paul Sr Illinois 98.4 28.2 77.4 1.41
Lenzelle Smith Jr. Jr Ohio State 104.7 19.0 70.8 1.39
Keith Appling Jr Michigan State 99.0 23.8 84.3 1.37
Eric May Sr Iowa 116.0 13.0 54.7 1.23
Jared Berggren Sr Wisconsin 100.4 20.8 75.7 1.22
Melsahn Basabe Jr Iowa 110.7 17.6 49.0 1.21
Branden Dawson So Michigan State 101.2 21.5 66.7 1.17
Sam McLaurin Sr Illinois 115.9 12.4 53.9 1.16
Rodney Williams Sr Minnesota 102.8 19.0 65.8 1.15
Mitch McGary Fr Michigan 107.2 19.9 47.8 1.13
Sasa Borovnjak Jr Penn State 101.0 18.9 63.1 0.96
Dylan Talley Sr Nebraska 94.4 27.0 89.0 0.95
Brandon Ubel Sr Nebraska 97.7 20.2 75.3 0.91
Shavon Shields Fr Nebraska 97.8 19.1 77.8 0.90
Terone Johnson Jr Purdue 94.7 26.6 80.8 0.89
Sam Thompson So Ohio State 101.1 15.2 62.2 0.77
Mike Bruesewitz Sr Wisconsin 98.1 15.7 74.5 0.73
Tyler Griffey Sr Illinois 102.1 17.0 49.3 0.73
Nnanna Egwu So Illinois 99.2 16.6 63.2 0.73
Reggie Hearn Sr Northwestern 93.9 23.5 79.6 0.69
Alex Marcotullio Sr Northwestern 99.5 16.3 57.2 0.66
Rapheal Davis Fr Purdue 99.8 15.7 55.9 0.65
Joe Coleman So Minnesota 95.9 18.7 66.3 0.61
David Rivers So Nebraska 96.9 14.5 72.6 0.58
Joseph Bertrand Jr Illinois 96.7 17.4 61.0 0.58
Nick Colella Sr Penn State 102.7 8.1 70.7 0.52
Tracy Abrams So Illinois 92.8 23.7 72.1 0.51
Kale Abrahamson Fr Northwestern 97.3 17.3 48.6 0.48
Tre Demps Fr Northwestern 93.0 25.4 57.9 0.46
Ray Gallegos Jr Nebraska 91.2 21.1 96.4 0.40
Denzel Valentine Fr Michigan State 92.6 18.0 51.0 0.26
Shannon Scott So Ohio State 92.3 18.5 50.2 0.25
Traevon Jackson So Wisconsin 90.4 20.2 74.1 0.22
Devonte (DJ) Newbill So Penn State 88.9 31.7 92.5 0.16
Mike Gesell Fr Iowa 89.1 19.1 72.3 0.09
Ronnie Johnson Fr Purdue 87.7 24.1 81.8 (0.04)
Dave Sobolewski So Northwestern 86.5 20.9 88.3 (0.17)
Ryan Evans Sr Wisconsin 86.4 25.8 70.0 (0.18)
Ross Travis So Penn State 84.9 15.5 77.9 (0.23)
Alex Olah Fr Northwestern 79.6 21.6 51.7 (0.58)
Brandon Taylor Fr Penn State 71.0 17.1 49.0 (0.88)

I move that the top four guys on this list all go pro early and everyone else stays. All in favor? Motion approved.

Trey Burke was head and shoulders above the rest of the league offensively. The conference (and arguably national) player of the year race comes down to whether you think Oladipo's defense makes up the gap. It's close--Oladipo is a game-changer defensively--but I think you have to recognize that Burke is no slouch defensively, either (we've all spent the last week trying to block out the biggest defensive play he made this year). And I think you also have to recognize that Oladipo's supporting cast was stronger than Burke's down the stretch. So I vote for Burke.

Here are my personal picks for the all-Big Ten teams, accounting for the numbers above, defensive value, nonconference performance, and other things of a subjective nature.

First Team
Burke, Harris, Oladipo, Thomas, Zeller

Second Team
Craft, Hollins (Andre), Richardson, White, Payne

Third Team
Hulls, Brust, Watford, Mbakwe, Berggren

Honorable Mention
Appling, Hardaway, Jr., Swopshire, Robinson III, Hammons

(I'm probably not giving D.J. Newbill his due, but I gotta trust the numbers, man. It's my thing.)

Sixth Man: Dekker

Freshman: Harris

Coach of the Year: Fran McCaffrey (20 wins, #30 in the country per KenPom, .500 record in the toughest conference in the country, only one senior in the rotation, why the heck not)

Air your grievances with my selections below.

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