It feels like we just did this. I'm half-tempted to rewrite my preview from the last time.
MSU went to Bloomington about two weeks ago and defeated Indiana 73-56. Since that time, Indiana squeaked out a win at Penn State and took down No. 3 Wisconsin, and the Hoosiers were looking like an NCAA Tournament team. Then they proceeded to lose at home to Northwestern 54-47, so the Hoosiers are again on the outside looking in as they come to Breslin Center.
MSU didn't have much trouble the first time around, but Adreian Payne is unlikely to play this time. Payne scored just four points on six shots in 25 minutes in the first meeting and had five rebounds (one offensive). Since losing Payne, MSU has made up for his loss with a combination of Matt Costello and Alex Gauna and improved play from the guards.
Not much has changed for the Hoosiers, except their ratings are worse on both sides of the ball, in the bottom five in the Big Ten in conference play in offense and defense.
Indiana is No. 157 in adjO, shooting 49.5 percent on 2s (No. 132) and 33.1 percent on 3s (No. 211). They still turn it over a ton (21.2 percent). Against MSU last time, they turned it over 15 times (23.5 percent), leading to a number of MSU runouts. The Hoosiers do get to the free-throw line (No. 28 in free-throw rate).
Yogi Ferrell stills leads the way at 17.4 points and 4.0 assists per game. He's shooting 41 percent on 112 three-point attempts. Ferrell scored 17 in the last meeting, but most of that came with Keith Appling in foul trouble in the first half. The next closest in three-point attempts is Will Sheehey at 51. Noah Vonleh remains a force inside, averaging 12.4 points and 9.2 rebounds, No. 87 in the country in OR%. Sheehey averages 10.4 points per game.
Indiana is No. 50 in adjD, ranked in the top-100 in two-point and three-point defense. But they only force turnovers 17.9 percent of the time (No. 212). MSU had an eFG% of 55.9 last time, including 10-for-24 on 3s (0-for-3 from Payne).
Indiana remains a great offensive rebounding team, No. 6 in the nation at 40.9 percent. That drops to 36.3 in conference play, good for second in the Big Ten. In the first meeting, Indiana grabbed just 29.4 percent, lower than MSU. The Spartans grabbed 31.3 percent, and Indiana allows 27.5 percent on the year.
As KJ highlighted in his piece, Indiana has been one of the faster teams in the country (No. 27), but they're No. 7 in the Big Ten in conference play, averaging five fewer possessions per game.
Before last season, MSU had won 17 straight home games against the Hoosiers. KenPom predicts an 80-64 MSU win, giving the Spartans a 92 percent chance.
#Izzone: Due to extreme cold (it's 4 degrees now, wind chill of -9), you won't be able to line up tonight until 5pm. Gates open 5:30pm.— Kevin Pauga (@KevinPauga) January 21, 2014