FanPost

Minutes-adjusted stats: Now bolder!

Ladies and gentlemen (come to think of it, we could use some gender balance around here)... we are now half way through Big Ten (or 12 going on 14) regular season basketball. Following up on my original "per 30" post looking at MSU player production based on starters' minutes, I now offer comparisons of non-conference stats with those from the Big Ten first half, while implementing some helpful suggestions from the first post's comment section. As you'll see, there are some noteworthy trends individually and as a team. Throughout this post, bold highlights positive trends while italics are not so good (I tried using color, but sbnation's table formatting vehemently disagreed with that idea). We'll start by just looking at minutes per game.

MIN/G
Player NonConf Conf
Harris 30.3 35.7
Payne 29.2 27.3
Appling 30.9 35.8
Dawson 28.2 28.7
Valentine 26.0 30.9
Trice 21.4 18.6
Kaminski 7.3 14
Costello 14.6 20.3
Gauna 8.9 7.6
Ellis 8.6 7
Byrd 8.9 10
Schilling 8.0 5.4

Some of the playing time trends are predictable - Izzo relies on his starting guards and his somewhat healthier rotation players more heavily in Big Ten play. The growth of Kaminski's role is also clear to anyone watching. On the flip side, Trice has seen a slight down-tick in his minutes, and Schilling's role is particularly reduced.

Next we move into player stats per 30 minutes.

PTS/30min
Player NonConf Conf
Harris 17.7 15.7
Payne 18.5 9.9
Appling 15.5 12.3
Dawson 10.9 10.6
Valentine 8.5 7.5
Trice 10.3 10.5
Kaminski 16.5 11.6
Costello 6.8 7.4
Gauna 7.2 9.1
Ellis 7.9 8.1
Byrd 7.0 3.9
Schilling 8.9 4.4

Conference scoring is down - no surprise - but the effect is uneven among players. Payne and Appling are excused for health reasons. Kaminski, Byrd, and Schilling have not scored as readily against Big Ten competition.

REB/30min
Player NonConf Conf
Harris 4.5 3.9
Payne 8.1 7.7
Appling 3.2 3.3
Dawson 9.9 8.2
Valentine 6.3 6.4
Trice 2.0 1.6
Kaminski 3.3 2.9
Costello 7.2 6.6
Gauna 6.2 4.9
Ellis 2.8 1.4
Byrd 5.3 2.3
Schilling 7.8 9.9

I combined offensive and defensive rebounds this time, but sample sizes are still smallish in some cases. I don't know if I can get excited yet that Schilling has grabbed 25 rebounds in conference play instead of the 19.7 expected from his non-conference rate, but he's doing especially well on the offensive glass thus far (4.3 ORBs per 30min).

AST/30min
Player NonConf Conf
Harris 3.2 2.1
Payne 1.4 2.2
Appling 4.9 3.9
Dawson 2.7 0.9
Valentine 4.4 3.6
Trice 3.6 2.2
Kaminski 0.8 0.7
Costello 2.1 0.8
Gauna 1.1 0.5
Ellis 2.2 1.4
Byrd 0.5 0.0
Schilling 1.6 1.2

Assists are so 2013, apparently. The Spartans seemed to have a much smoother-running offense against their non-conference opponents. Lower scoring can account for part of this effect, but not most of it. Injuries have likely played their role in disrupting the team's normal half-court execution. But it is concerning that MSU has often seemed to lack any productive movement on offense in recent games, often resulting in quixotic drives into the lane or low percentage contested jump shots.

STL/30min
Player NonConf Conf
Harris 1.3 2.3
Payne 0.8 0.4
Appling 1.1 1.3
Dawson 1.5 1.0
Valentine 1.3 1.0
Trice 2.2 0.8
Kaminski 1.6 1.2
Costello 0.5 0.8
Gauna 0.3 0.0
Ellis 1.9 1.4
Byrd 0.5 0.0
Schilling 0.0 0.0

Harris has dialed up the defensive pressure in tightly contested Big 10 games, while Trice has lost his knack for pilfering.

BLK/30min
Player NonConf Conf
Harris 0.2 0.4
Payne 1.1 0.7
Appling 0.4 0.7
Dawson 0.6 1.6
Valentine 0.4 0.6
Trice 0.1 0.4
Kaminski 0.8 0.5
Costello 2.8 2.6
Gauna 1.1 1.0
Ellis 0.3 0.5
Byrd 1.4 0.8
Schilling 0.3 2.5

Blocks mean small sample sizes all over, but the trends for Dawson and Schilling look nice, and Costello is still Block-O-Matt-ic.

FOUL/30
Player NonConf Conf
Harris 1.5 1.9
Payne 2.5 3.3
Appling 2.4 2.4
Dawson 1.6 1.2
Valentine 2.0 3.1
Trice 1.8 3.8
Kaminski 3.3 3.3
Costello 4.1 3.0
Gauna 5.9 4.9
Ellis 2.8 2.4
Byrd 4.3 4.5
Schilling 6.5 8.0

Costello and Gauna have improved their foul rate (though Gauna's is still high). Schilling will probably need an offseason to make any real progress in this department. Time will tell if Trice's foul surge is just a random blip.

TO/30
Player NonConf Conf
Harris 2.0 1.4
Payne 1.5 2.6
Appling 1.9 1.7
Dawson 1.9 0.9
Valentine 1.9 1.4
Trice 1.7 1.4
Kaminski 0.8 0.7
Costello 0.5 1.5
Gauna 1.1 1.5
Ellis 2.5 1.9
Byrd 1.0 0.0
Schilling 1.9 2.5

Turnovers are mostly steady. Nothing terribly alarming or reassuring to me here.

So there you have it. Any other trends that you see or would like to see?

This is a FanPost, written by a member of the TOC community. It does not represent the official positions of The Only Colors, Inc.--largely because we have no official positions.

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