2014 Big Ten Tournament Seeding Odds: March 4

Andy Lyons

Two byes are still up for grabs among five teams, and the bottom half is complete chaos.

Yesterday I posted the seeding tables (links to top half and bottom half images); now it's time to add the odds. No more season simulations; all of these are based on per-game probabilities.

Michigan

Remaining games: @ Illinois (64% basic / 64% margin-aware / +3 projected margin), Indiana (86% / 87% / +10)
Projected record: 15-3 55.4% / 55.7%; 14-4 39.7% / 39.7%; 13-5 4.9% / 4.6%

Guaranteed a share of the conference title. Win outright with a win or losses by Wisconsin and MSU (96.3% / 96.5%).

Not quite guaranteed the 1 seed yet; there are a couple scenarios where Wisconsin can take it. Michigan is guaranteed at least the 2, however.

Wisconsin

Remaining games: Purdue (93% / 97% / +17), @ Nebraska (69% / 72% / +5)
Projected record: 13-5 63.9% / 69.2%; 12-6 33.9% / 29.8%; 11-7 2.2% / 1.0%

Guaranteed a bye. Get a share of the conference title with two wins and two Michigan losses (3.2% / 3.2%).

Wisconsin can get the 1 seed with two wins, two Michigan losses, and some help in the other games (I think it boils down to Iowa finishing ahead of Ohio State and not tied with Nebraska, or Iowa and Ohio State being tied ahead of Nebraska). They can fall as far as the 4 seed if Nebraska wins twice, MSU wins at least one, and Iowa loses at least one.

Michigan State

Remaining games: Iowa (71% / 70% / +4.5), @ Ohio State (41% / 35% / -3.5)
Projected record: 13-5 29.3% / 24.4%; 12-6 53.8% / 56.1%; 11-7 16.9% / 19.4%

Get a share of the conference title with two wins and two Michigan losses (1.4% / 1.1%). Get a bye with a win or an Iowa loss or a Nebraska loss (98.4% / 98.5%).

MSU can get the 2 seed by finishing with a better record than Wisconsin. One win guarantees at least the 3 seed; lose both and MSU still gets the 3 if Nebraska loses one and either Iowa loses to Illinois or Wisconsin loses both games (Iowa would finish last in the three-way tie). The only way to fall to the 5 is to lose twice, Nebraska wins twice, and Iowa beats Illinois.

Iowa

Remaining games: @ Michigan State (29% / 30% / -4.5), Illinois (78% / 89% / +11)
Projected record: 11-7 22.3% / 26.5%; 10-8 61.8% / 65.9%; 9-9 15.9% / 7.6%

Among other scenarios, Iowa can clinch a bye if they beat MSU and Nebraska loses to Indiana. Winning twice isn't good enough to get a bye if Wisconsin loses twice, Nebraska wins twice, and MSU beats Ohio State. Iowa can fall as far as the 7 seed if they lose twice, OSU beats MSU, Nebraska beats Wisconsin, and Indiana wins twice.

Nebraska

Remaining games: @ Indiana (40% / 31% / -4), Wisconsin (31% / 28% / -5)
Projected record: 11-7 12.5% / 8.8%; 10-8 46.2% / 41.9%; 9-9 41.3% / 49.3%

Nebraska can rise as high as the 2 seed if they win twice, Wisconsin and MSU loses twice, and Iowa loses to Illinois; however, two losses, two Indiana wins, and an OSU win (or two MSU wins and two Illinois wins) could drop them as far as the 7 seed.

Ohio State

Remaining game: Michigan State (59% / 65% / +3.5)
Projected record: 10-8 58.9% / 65.1%; 9-9 41.1% / 34.9%

Ohio State gets a bye if they win, Iowa loses twice, and Wisconsin beats Nebraska. They fall to the 7 seed in most scenarios where they lose and Indiana wins twice (if Iowa loses twice, Wisconsin wins twice, and Illinois beats Michigan, they get the 6 and Nebraska drops to the 7).

Indiana

Remaining games: Nebraska (60% / 69% / +4), @ Michigan (14% / 13% / -10)
Projected record: 9-9 8.3% / 8.7%; 8-10 57.4% / 64.0%; 7-11 34.3% / 27.3%

Indiana has the widest range available to them yet: two wins, a Nebraska loss to Wisconsin, an Ohio State loss, and two Iowa losses will give them the 4 seed and a bye, but if they lose twice there are a couple of possible scenarios that drop them all the way to the 11 seed.

Minnesota

Remaining game: Penn State (78% / 84% / +8.5)
Projected record: 8-10 78.0% / 83.6%; 7-11 22.0% / 16.4%

Among other possibilities, Minnesota gets the 7 seed if they win and Indiana and Illinois each lose at least once, although if both win twice Minnesota can do no better than the 9. Minnesota can still get the 7 seed with a loss if Indiana and Illinois both lose twice, but they could fall as far as the 11 seed in one extremely unlikely scenario.

Illinois

Remaining games: Michigan (36% / 36% / -3), @ Iowa (22% / 11% / -11)
Projected record: 8-10 7.9% / 3.9%; 7-11 42.1% / 39.3%; 6-12 50.0% / 56.8%

Illinois can span the entire bottom half, from the 7 seed to the 12. The 7 is still possible even if they lose to Michigan; beating Michigan would guarantee them no worse than the 10.

Purdue

Remaining games: @ Wisconsin (7% / 3% / -17), Northwestern (71% / 75% / +5.5)
Projected record: 7-11 5.0% / 2.6%; 6-12 68.3% / 72.9%; 5-13 26.7% / 24.5%

Purdue can also span the entire bottom half. Beating Wisconsin could still leave them in the 12 seed but beating Northwestern in the finale guarantees that they will not be the 12.

Northwestern

Remaining games: Penn State (60% / 56% / +1), @ Purdue (29% / 25% / -5.5)
Projected record: 7-11 17.1% / 14.2%; 6-12 54.1% / 52.9%; 5-13 28.8% / 32.9%

In playing both of the teams they're tied with, Northwestern has a bit more control over their seed than most. Lose both and they are the 12 seed for certain; win either and they are not (although they could still be the 11 with one win). There are a couple of scenarios where Northwestern can claim the 7 seed (requiring Illinois to win exactly one game, Indiana to lose twice, and Minnesota to lose).

Penn State

Remaining games: @ Northwestern (40% / 44% / -1), @ Minnesota (22% / 16% / -8.5)
Projected record: 7-11 8.9% / 7.2%; 6-12 44.7% / 46.0%; 5-13 46.4% / 46.8%

Penn State is the only team (apart from the top 3) that cannot earn the 7 seed. There are a few scenarios where they can get as high as the 8 seed, however. A loss to Northwestern guarantees the 12 seed as long as Purdue wins a game.

Odds Tables

Top Half

(Percentages are listed by basic method / margin-aware.)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Michigan 98.50% / 98.57% 1.50% / 1.43%
Wisconsin 1.50% / 1.43% 86.68% / 90.46% 11.17% / 7.89% 0.65% / 0.22%
Michigan State 11.79% / 8.10% 74.80% / 74.55% 11.78% / 15.82% 1.64% / 1.53%
Iowa 12.83% / 17.11% 65.10% / 69.82% 15.79% / 10.16% 6.04% / 2.79% 0.24% / 0.12%
Nebraska 0.03% / 1 in 15,400 1.20% / 0.45% 14.97% / 9.68% 28.50% / 25.47% 51.81% / 60.29% 3.49% / 4.10%
Ohio State 7.14% / 4.30% 51.39% / 60.46% 38.17% / 32.26% 3.30% / 2.98%
Indiana 0.37% / 0.17% 2.68% / 2.38% 3.98% / 4.66% See lower half

Bottom Half

There are several ties currently unresolved (dependent on games in the upper half that aren't in the table for the lower half); those percentages are not included in the table here but are marked with a *. Such ties will be listed afterward.

7 8 9 10 11 12
Indiana 12.91% / 11.59%* 59.27% / 66.73%* 17.08% / 11.46%* 1.54% / 0.62% 0.08% / 0.02%
Minnesota 69.39% / 75.78%* 21.57% / 18.23%* 6.79% / 4.88%* 1.35% / 0.79%* *
Illinois 9.72% / 5.05%* 9.73% / 8.32%* 36.03% / 42.27%* 15.95% / 13.83%* 26.02% / 28.03%* 0.09% / 0.04%
Purdue 0.09% / 0.03%* 1.45% / 0.66%* 2.59% / 1.60%* 33.76% / 41.21%* 28.19% / 26.71%* 17.40% / 16.06%*
Northwestern 0.54% / 0.25% 3.62% / 2.30% 31.73% / 34.18%* 28.13% / 25.01%* 6.99% / 5.32%* 28.82% / 32.88%
Penn State 1.45% / 1.09%* 3.08% / 3.02%* 12.79% / 13.50%* 22.74% / 26.41%* 43.94% / 42.43%*

Unresolved ties (these are often part of a larger tie that is partially broken by head-to-head):

Illinois and Indiana: 0.10% / 0.03% for 7th-8th, 1.99% / 2.34% for 8th-9th
Purdue and Penn State: 5.97% / 4.84% for 10th-11th, 9.75% / 8.59% for 11th-12th
Minnesota and Illinois: 0.22% / 0.05% for 8th-9th
Minnesota and Purdue: 0.19% / 0.07% for 7th-8th, 0.24% / 0.10% for 8th-9th, 0.06% / 0.01% for 9th-10th
Illinois and Purdue: 0.02% / 1 in 28,100 for 7th-8th, 0.13% / 0.05% for 10th-11th
Minnesota, Purdue, and Penn State (three-way): 0.15% / 0.08% for 8th-10th, 1 in 51,200 / 1 in 341,000 for 9th-11th
Minnesota and Northwestern: 0.04% / 0.01% for 9th-10th
Northwestern and Penn State: 0.13% / 0.04% for 10th-11th
Minnesota and Penn State: 1 in 20,200 / 1 in 69,500 for 8th-9th, 1 in 127,000 / 1 in 1,000,000 for 9th-10th

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