FanPost

Adjusted Statistical Plus-Minus for MSU in 2013-14

Brendan Maloney-USA TODAY Sports

[Late on this, but bumped for neat-o scatterplot. -KJ]

[For explanation of ASPM, please see my post here]

Let's take a look at the Adjusted Statistical Plus-Minus for MSU in 13-14, shall we?

All of my data comes from Daniel Myers here. Seriously, huge shout out to Daniel and his site - there's some really nice data and visualizations there, especially if you are an NBA person as well.

Anyways, here's a chart and a graph of MSU ASPM data. On offense, positive is good, while on defense, negative is good. To follow, I'm going to break the roster down into completely non-scientific bins based upon what caught my eye.

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via s23.postimg.org

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via s17.postimg.org

The guys who didn't play enough to really merit analysis: Alvin Ellis, Alex Gauna, Russell Byrd, Gavin Schilling

Unfortunately these guys just didn't play enough minutes for ASPM to be particularly valid. I've left them out of the chart for this reason.

The obviously awesome: Gary Harris (8.3 Total, 5.0 Offensive, -3.3 Defensive), Branden Dawson (9.1T, 4.9O, -4.2D)

You knew this already about Gary. Branden, however, was a little surprising at both ends of the floor. During the season I thought the loss of Payne would sting more than Dawson, but perhaps I was wrong. The tournament performance of Dawson was really impressive and is highlighted here - fingers crossed we get one of these two back next year.

The guy who was surprisingly poor defensively: Adreian Payne (6.2T, 4.5O, -1.7D)

Near the end of the year I thought Payne was best used in slightly shorter spurts for exactly this reason. It seemed clear that he got gassed defensively quite quickly (especially during UM II) and became a liability. His best games (see: Delaware) came when he was in foul trouble which allowed him to rest for stretches. Still, his offense was great.

One interesting tidbit here is the steady decline of Payne's block percentage during his career 9.9 (2011), 6.9 (2012), 5.6 (2013), and 3.8 (2014).

The bizarro twins: Kenny Kaminski (5.9T, 5.0O, -0.8D) and Matt Costello (5.4T, 1.9O, -3.5D)

I think Kenny is a little overrated offensively by this metric because of his low number of minutes, but we knew he wasn't great defensively. His ability to hit threes and not turn the ball over will be hugely useful, but going forward he needs to improve on the defensive end.

I think Costello is a little overrated defensively by this metric because of his low number of minutes, but we knew he wasn't great offensively. His ability to block shots and rebound will be hugely useful, but going forward he needs to improve on the offensive end.

Gimmicky blogging points aside, I think these two will be a nice frontcourt pair next year because of their differing skill sets.

The guys who were surprisingly similar: Keith Appling (5.1T, 3.0O, -2.2D) and Travis Trice (4.6T, 2.8O, -1.8D)

While both had extremely different styles, both Keith and Travis brought something unique to both ends of the court. This, combined with Trice's impressive Big Ten Tournament, make me very excited to see how he'll turn out running the show next year. Hopefully #MediaLoveTrice returns.

The legitimately concerning: Denzel Valentine (4.3T, 1.8O, -2.5D)

The turnover percentage and true shooting percentage are really what drag Valentine down here. This is worrisome to me for next year, as we all assume Denzel will take on a larger part of the offense. But currently he is using a below-average 18.2 percent of possessions and is doing so at an efficiency of 106.9. Typically, when asked to take a larger role on offense, players tend to decline in efficiency (or in Payne's case, are not able to use as much energy defensively).

That said, we all see the flashes of brilliance and Denzel's 3-point shooting has really improved. Alongside the decisions of Mr. Harris and Mr. Dawson, the development of Valentine is the biggest key to next season's success.

Conclusions:

Overall, I thought ASPM passed the sniff test for me with regards to this edition of MSU basketball, and gave some interesting insights not available in other systems. Please give me your thoughts in the comments.

This is a FanPost, written by a member of the TOC community. It does not represent the official positions of The Only Colors, Inc.--largely because we have no official positions.

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