Home Field (court) advantage and officiating
by trivialstuff16 on Jan 31, 2012 9:25 PM CST
Officiating has been a popular topic in several game threads of late. During tonight's ugly pageant of a basketball game it was discussed at length.
There has been discussion about whether the B1G favors teams it wants to try and help make the tournament or otherwise keep in the national discussion. This concept is not pushed by many, and I generally hate conspiracy theories. But I will concede that if Tim Donaghy can get away with intentionally impacting games until well after the fact, I don't think you can completely dismiss the idea. I just think it's extemely unlikely.
There has also been discussion about whether MSU's style, or Izzo's relationship with officials, or some other unknown factor is the cause of this injustice.
I happen to agree that in a few cases this year (notably @Wisconsin, and @ Illinois) the officiating has been bad. But it reminded me of an article SI had that attempted to identify the cause of Home Field Advantage.
After trying to find the article, it appears it is no longer in the SI archive and was actually an excerpt from a book titled Scorecasting: The Hidden Influences Behind How Sports Are Played and Games are Won
Now the article isn't there anymore, and I haven't read the entire book. But thanks to the internet, this is not a problem, because other people have summarized the article/book for me
Links:
http://sports-law.blogspot.com/2011/01/home-field-advantage-and-umpire-analogy.html
http://sabermetricresearch.blogspot.com/2011/01/scorecasting-is-home-field-advantage.html
http://www.significancemagazine.org/details/webexclusive/999747/Why-do-home-teams-win.html
The theory is basically that when reviewed across large samples athlete/team performance doesn't really vary home vs away. The only thing that really changes is how officials call the game, and that the size/intensity of the home crowd plays a factor as well. They look across several sports, and even find a small "control" group in a European soccer league which forced its teams to play in front of empty stadiums due to security concerns.
They suggest that basically officials are influenced by crowd reaction on those 50/50 calls or no calls. An official sees a play that might be a foul and in the split second after it happens they are deciding whether to blow the whistle the crowd goes nuts and it subconsiously reinforces them and they make the call.
The links above raise some potential concerns, and again I haven't read the book. I don't know if I buy it entirely, but thought I would share it as a potential explanation for what we sometimes see when MSU goes on the road.*
*I also strongly suspect that other teams/fanbases would argue the same thing. That their team gets hosed, especially on the road. Unlike the officials, many of us are biased both consiously and unconsciously. I don't watch other B1G teams with the same level of interest to say for certain, but my strong suspicion is that it's not just MSU that gets bad calls.
The most well rounded State team since 99-01.
by SpartyLike123199 on Jan 30, 2012 6:32 PM CST
I've been looking at the Sagarin, Pomeroy, and RPI ratings over the last month or so, and this is a team that has remained consistent in all three categories.
Help a couple Spartans win a honeymoon!
by Walke219 on Jan 30, 2012 1:48 PM CST
Hey guys!
Help a couple Spartan Alum ('11) win a honeymoon to Hawaii from jetsetter.com! All you have to do is click the link below then click "vote". That's it. No signing up or anything like that. The leader has around 500 votes so we are a bit behind. Could really use some spartan help! You can vote today and tomorrow. The contest ends the 31st at midnight.
Heres the link
http://bit.ly/ADRk7N
That takes you to vote for us
Thanks and go green!!! We will keep you posted
Brett and Lindsey ('11)
MSU/UM Football - Yes, Virginia, there really is a Rivalry
by tomax powers on Jan 26, 2012 6:24 PM CST
(Bump. -- Ed.)
I had considered posting this shortly after the 4th win in a row over UM, when many of the UM fans were stating that it still wasn't a rivalry with MSU. Their true "rival" was OSU, which had in fact dominated them for the better part of the last 10 years. But this week's loss to UM and the increased discussion of "The Rivalry" made me dust off the data, apply a few more filters, and come to the conclusion that there is a true rivalry with MSU/UM.
Who fouls the least?
by Drew Perkins on Jan 24, 2012 4:08 PM CST
No surprise at #2 on this list eh? #13's numbers were probably buoyed by their (nearly) immaculate first half against MSU last week.
1. Mississippi State (13.4)
2. Wisconsin (13.6)
….Siena (13.6)
4. Cal (13.8)
5. North Carolina (13.9)
6. Missouri (14.1)
7. Notre Dame (14.3)
8. Connecticut (14.4)
9. San Diego State (14.6)
10. Gonzaga (14.7)
11. South Florida (14.9)
…..Arkansas State (14.9)
13. Cincinnati (15.2)
…..Michigan (15.2)
15. Stony Brook (15.3)
…..Southern Methodist (15.3)
17. Tulane (15.5)
…..St. Joseph’s, Pa. (15.5)
…..Harvard (15.5)
…..Syracuse (15.5)
21. Kentucky (15.6)
…..College of Charleston (15.6)
23. UAB (15.6)
24. Boston College (15.7)
……South Dakota (15.7)
25 Years of the 3 Point Shot
by Uncle Omar on Jan 21, 2012 2:53 PM CST
It seems like yesterday, but then when your first memory of MSU basketball is Julius McCoy and Bob Anderegg almost everything seems like yesterday. So, today's trivia question is this: Who was the first player to make a three point shot in Big Ten play? As you can probably imagine because it the question is on this site, it was a Spartan. As a hint, I'll tell you this, it happened in Carver-Hawkeye Arena in an ESPN Wednesday night game. I'll be back in the comments with the answer.
Early Season Regressed Shooting Rates
by Mike Rogers on Jan 15, 2012 9:37 PM CST
Last March I had three separate posts on regressed shooting rates for Big Ten basketball teams. Since I was toying around with some numbers I figured I'd throw it into a FanPost for all to enjoy.
Essentially, I'm figuring out how much regression is needed for shooting rates among the 12 Big Ten rates using the method Tom Tango laid out in this blog post. This is kind of an update on the first of my three posts last March.
Is this Year's frontcourt actually better than last years?
by TheCrestedHelm on Jan 12, 2012 2:48 PM CST
(Bump. -- Ed.)
Following up on Ducking Delvon's post on last year's backcourt compared to this year's, I thought it would be useful to compare this year's frontcourt to last year's. I'm not sure where to categorize Dawson and Summers. Both play basically the same position, but they are not the same player. Summers shot lots of 3s, Dawson shoots far fewer of them. Basically for much of last year we had a 2 man frontcourt of Green and Roe, with Nix and Payne subbing in and Summers basically at small forward (Appling at 2 and Lucious coming in for Lucas while he was still here). So I guess there will be some overlap here in that I will include Summers as a front court player. That gives us a front court for last year of Summers, Green, Roe, Sherman, Nix, Payne, and Thornton. This year we have Dawson, Green, Nix, Payne, Thornton, Gauna, and Byrd. I'm using tempo-free stats from all of last year for those players who played last year, vs tempo free stats YTD for this year. The rest follows below the jump.
Is MSU's Backcourt Actually Better than Last Year's?
by Ducking Delvon on Jan 11, 2012 4:24 PM CST
(Bump. -- Ed.)
Before last season started, the premise of this question would have seemed preposterous. Even a few short months ago, it would have been fairly laughable. After all, MSU entered last season ranked #2 in the country and was coming off back-to-back conference titles and Final Four runs. Respected writers were comparing the team to the best Izzo has ever had and saying that anything short of a national championship would be "a disappointment". A major source of optimism was the depth at the guard position. Seniors/BFFs Kalin Lucas and Durrell Summers were preparing for a year that would showcase their talents for the NBA. And junior Korie Lucious, he of The Greatest NCAA Tournament Shot in MSU History fame, was going to anchor the point guard spot as the third core member of the backcourt. The guards were experienced, battle-tested, and talented.
By the time the 2011-12 season started, Lucas, Summers, and Mike Kebler had graduated, Lucious had been kicked off the team, incoming freshman Dwaun Anderson decided not to enroll at MSU, and Brandon Wood transferred from Valpo for his senior season. All of this left MSU with a core backcourt of Appling, Wood, and Travis Trice. A true freshman, a guy who had never played at MSU and wasn't a point guard, and a sophomore shooting guard/scorer being converted into the starting point guard. In other words, one gigantic question mark.
Well, we now have a sample size of 17 games for this year's team, so I thought it would be interesting to compare the stats on the two trios using the first 17 games of last year (especially given some recent debate about last year's team and Izzo's comments about Lucious after the Iowa game last night). I think there's enough to go on for a fair comparison at this point.
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Coaches poll has MSU at 10
by witless chum on Jan 10, 2012 8:45 AM CST
The final USA Today Coaches Poll was released already. The nation's assembled sports information directors have MSU at 10.
The poll:
1. Alabama (59) 12-1 1,475 2 2. LSU 13-1 1,404 1 3. Oklahoma State 12-1 1,367 3 4. Oregon 12-2 1,290 5 5. Arkansas 11-2 1,188 7 6. Boise State 12-1 1,162 6 7. Stanford 11-2 1,106 4 8. South Carolina 11-2 1,084 9 9. Michigan 11-2 925 12 10. Michigan State 11-3 912 13 11. Wisconsin 11-3 911 8 12. Baylor 10-3 775 16 13. TCU 11-2 710 15 14. Houston 13-1 673 17 15. Oklahoma 10-3 610 19 16. Kansas State 10-3 602 10 17. Virginia Tech 11-3 574 11 18. West Virginia 10-3 554 22 19. Southern Mississippi 12-2 429 21 20. Georgia 10-4 345 18 21. Cincinnati 10-3 248 24 22. Clemson 10-4 237 14 23. Florida State 9-4 205 25 24. Nebraska 9-4 144 20 25. Brigham Young 10-3 79 NR
Well, that seems mostly pretty okay, minus the complete and total ridiculousness of a world-historical ranking fraud, travesty and bad idea at number nine. But those die were cast earlier in the year.
Speaking of teams we hate, ND's bowl loss put them out of the poll and made our loss to them look worse. Thanks, Brian Kelly. You're swell.
Arkansas managed to have the quiestest possible 11-2 top 5 ranked season. I didn't see the Hogs play all year, but I don't think they belong up there given how bad they got trashed by Bama (38-14) and LSU (41-17). Their best wins are South Carolina and Kansas State.
Our friends the Georgia Bulldogs are damn well better than 20, too.
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