The Only Colors: FanPosts

My season preview of the Spartan offense

2013-06-18T02:09:17Z

I wrote a preview for the Spartans offense in 2013. You can check it out here.

I'm just curious as to what everyones thoughts on the offense going into this year. Is it more of an optimistic feeling? Or more concerned with what we have coming back?

A few of my personal takes on the offense coming into the year:

I desperately want Andrew Maxwell to succeed. He is what college football players should be. In this day in age of transferring if you don't play, Maxwell put in the time and the work because he wanted to play Spartan football. That has to mean something, right? But, at the same time, I want to score points. Does Kirk have any eligibility left?
The running back position is going to be a circus. Nick Hill IS NOT the answer, there is no argument to defend him. The "Riley Bullough Experience" was something fresh and an interesting attempt at creativity, but I don't feel it is the long term answer. Are we going to through a bulk of the rushing on Gerald Holmes as a freshman? That seems to be the best bet.
Aaron Burbridge is going to be a star. If you're interested in joining my personal "Aaron Burbridge Fan Club", please, feel free to contact me. I think we need to get the ball in his hands and make plays.
I'd like to make a prediction on the offensive line, but given the history with our offensive line, I'll just leave it alone. About the only thing to be certain about is a freak accident awaits one of them, and someone will have to step up.

I'm interested as to what other people are feeling about the season. With there only being roughly a week left until it's exclusively baseball on television, I need stuff to talk to about to keep me entertained.

via www.rantsports.com

I wrote a preview for the Spartans offense in 2013. You can check it out here.

I'm just curious as to what everyones thoughts on the offense going into this year. Is it more of an optimistic feeling? Or more concerned with what we have coming back?

A few of my personal takes on the offense coming into the year:

I desperately want Andrew Maxwell to succeed. He is what college football players should be. In this day in age of transferring if you don't play, Maxwell put in the time and the work because he wanted to play Spartan football. That has to mean something, right? But, at the same time, I want to score points. Does Kirk have any eligibility left?
The running back position is going to be a circus. Nick Hill IS NOT the answer, there is no argument to defend him. The "Riley Bullough Experience" was something fresh and an interesting attempt at creativity, but I don't feel it is the long term answer. Are we going to through a bulk of the rushing on Gerald Holmes as a freshman? That seems to be the best bet.
Aaron Burbridge is going to be a star. If you're interested in joining my personal "Aaron Burbridge Fan Club", please, feel free to contact me. I think we need to get the ball in his hands and make plays.
I'd like to make a prediction on the offensive line, but given the history with our offensive line, I'll just leave it alone. About the only thing to be certain about is a freak accident awaits one of them, and someone will have to step up.

Video: Michigan State Commit Damion Terry Big 33 Highlights and Interview

2013-06-17T16:31:59Z

I've attached the interview and some of his Big 33 highlights. He had a nice week of practice. Didn't really get a chance to air it out too much this game, Great kid. Click here to watch the video. He's definitely a dual-threat quarterback who likes to pass first. You'll find out that he can make all kinds of throws as well once he gets up to Michigan State. Good catch for the Spartans!

Video: Michigan State Commit Delton Williams Big 33 Highlights and Interview

2013-06-17T15:40:10Z

Here are are few of his highlights and an interview from the Big 33 game he played in this past Saturday. He is a very good player and had a great week of practice. Click here to view the video. Afterwards I was told that he was recruited to play football up at Michigan State. Either way, they will be getting a great player with a lot of swagger. Look for him to make an impact early.

Keith Appling Misses the Cut, Again

2013-06-11T14:47:31Z

About a year ago this time, Keith Appling was regularly showing up on various lists of breakout player candidates for the upcoming season. On one night in November, he seemed to make good on that promise with an excellent 2nd half that took down Kansas. But looking at Appling's season on the whole, we can't really say he was a breakout player. I mean he was, sometimes, but other times he definitely was not.

So now it's List Season again and we'll get to see if anybody wants to double down on Keith and predict a breakout season again. If not, there's always top 10 this or that or positional ranking type deals that will be used to make wild projections for various players. First up is the Sporting News Top 10 Point Guards List and... Keith missed the cut.

So who does ol' Mike DeCourcy think are better PG's than Keith? Well there's the obligatory, hotshot Kentucky freshman, an overweight guard with a more unreliable jumper than Keith's, 3 Appling Tormentors, another guard that's yet to play a second of D1 ball and Kevin Pangos?! Now Keith Appling has frustrated me as much as anybody else but would I rather have Kevin Pangos instead?

Three word answer: No. Hell No!

Here's the full list. (Slideshow warning!!)

On the upside, this Illinois beat writer has Appling 6th among BTPOY candidates. Scroll down to see this list.

Three word answer: No. Hell No!

Here's the full list. (Slideshow warning!!)

On the upside, this Illinois beat writer has Appling 6th among BTPOY candidates. Scroll down to see this list.

MSU Basketball Recruiting Outlook for 2014 class, my take

2013-06-06T02:47:12Z

(Bump - Lot of hard work put together here. Sorry I missed it a few days ago. Also, note that D'Angelo Russell has since selected Ohio State - Chris)

So I started working on this a few days before the latest recruiting round-up was published. As always the recruiting round-up was AWESOME and basically made my project a moot point, but I figured I would finish it out and post it because hopefully some of you guys find it interesting!

I am warning you now (and I did not realize this before I decided to post this...) but this thing is LOOOOOOOOOOOONG, let me know what you think and all of the many things I missed!

School-by-School:
Projected Roster Outlook for 2014-15 Season
Current 2014 Commits
Current 2014 Offers & Best-Guess Recruiting Plans-of-Attack

MSU Projected Roster (2014-15) (Graduating Seniors/Projected NBA-Draftee with * next to them)

Position (#/position-group)

Starter

Bench

Open*

Alvin Ellis

Open*

Gavin Schilling

MSU 2014 Commits

Name

Player info

Starter-Rotation-Bench-RS

ESPN #

Rivals #

~Plan--A,B,C

MSU OFFERS--BASIC INFO

targets (offered)

Player info (Pos, Ht, Wt)

Hometown (HS)

ESPN #

Rivals #

Plan--A, B, C

Cliff Alexander

C/PF, 6'8", 230

Chicago, IL (Curie)

Tyus Jones

PG, 6'1", 171

Apple Valley, MN (Apple Valley)

Jahlil Okafor

C, 6'10", 275

Chicago, IL (Whitney Young)

Kevon Looney

PF/F, 6'8", 200

Milwaukee, WI (Milwaukee Hamilton)

Devin Booker

SG, 6'4", 185

Moss Point, MS (Moss Point High)

Tyler Ulis

PG, 5'8", 150

Chicago Heights, IL (Marian Catholic)

Reid Travis

PF, 6'8", 240

Minneapolis, MS (De La Salle High)

Abdul-Malik Abu

PF, 6'8", 220

Boston, MA (Kimball Union Academy)

Jordan Barnett

SF, 6'7", 185

Saint Lousi, MO (Christian Brothers)

B-C

MSU Plan-of-Attack

Needs:

Plan A

Plan B

Best Guess:

1-2 PG

Tyus Jones

Tyler Ulis

Both (Ulis RS)

1-2 Wings

Kevon Looney/Devin Booker

Jordan Barnett

Kevon Looney

1-2 Bigs

Cliff Alexander & Jahlil Okafor

Reid Travis, Abdul-Malik Abu

Plan A

Comments: It seems that MSU is in very good position to get 3-5 very high-level prospects. The depth chart will be wide-open, which many competitors cannot say; I am guessing that we see another couple of wing prospects come onto the radar. I think Izzo get's his big-fish...more analysis to come in MSU 2014 Predictions section. ~~Also, be on the lookout for D'Angelo Russell--the more I read/research it seems like our interest is really picking up on this guy...~~ (D'Angelo Russell has now committed to Ohio (State), and is no longer in play for MSU.)

MSU Projected Roster (2014-15) (Best Case Roster--Spots All Spots Filled, projected lineups)

Position (#/position-group)

Starter

Bench

Tyus Jones

Travis Trice

Tyler Ulis (RS)

Denzel Valentine

Alvin Ellis

Kevon Looney

Russell Byrd

Cliff Alexander

Kenny Kaminski

Jahlil Okafor

Matt Costello

Gavin Schilling (RS)

Duke Projected Roster (2014-15) (Graduating Seniors/Projected NBA-Draftee with * next to them)

Position (#/position-group)

Starter

Bench

Open*

Matt Jones

Jabari Parker*

Semi Ojeyele

***

Duke 2014 Commits

Name

Player info

Starter-Rotation-Bench-RS

ESPN #

Rivals #

~Plan--A,B,C

Grayson Allen

Starter/Rotation

Duke OFFERS--BASIC INFO

targets (offered)

Player info (Pos, Ht, Wt)

Hometown (HS)

ESPN #

Rivals #

~Plan--A, B, C

Tyus Jones

PG, 6'1", 171

Apple Valley, MN (Apple Valley)

Jahlil Okafor

C, 6'10", 275

Chicago, IL (Whitney Young)

Trey Lyles

PF, 6'8" 210

Indianapolis, IN (Arsenal Technical)

Rashad Vaughn

SG, 6'6", 200

Minneapolis, MN (Robbinsdale Cooper)

Justise Winslow

SF, 6'5", 205

Houston, TX (Saint John's)

Kevon Looney

PF/F, 6'8", 200

Milwaukee, WI (Milwaukee Hamilton)

Devin Booker

SG/G/F, 6'4", 185

Moss Point, MS (Moss Point High)

Josh Perkins

PG, 6'3", 185

Denver, CO (Regis Jesuit)

Phil Booth

SG, 6'2", 170

Baltimore, MD (Mount St Joesph)

Kaleb Joseph

PG, 6'3", 165

Nashua, NH (Cushing Academy)

Duke Plan-of-Attack

Needs:

Plan A

Plan B

Best Guess:

1 PG

Tyus Jones

Perkins or Joseph

1-2 Plan B PGs

1-2Wings

Rashad Vaughn & Justise Winslow

Devin Booker or Phil Booth

Justise Winslow

2 Bigs

Trey Lyles & Jahlil Okafor

Kevon Looney

Trey Lyles

Comments: I REALLY doubt that Cook goes pro before his senior year, which would cast a pall over a Tyus Jones commitment. I am betting that Trey Lyles commits to Duke (his other choice being UK--who has Karl Towns who is the sam player...), and that Marshall Plumlee mans the C for Duke. They already have 1 wing, and will be returning 3 high quality wing players, so my guess is they look at other bigs, and maybe add Winslow.

Duke Projected Roster (2014-15) (Best Case Roster--Spots All Spots Filled, projected lineups)

Position (#/position-group)

Starter

Bench

Quinn Cook

Josh Perkins

Matt Jones

Justise Winslow

Rodney Hood

Semi Ojeyele

Alex Murphy

Trey Lyles

Amile Jefferson

Marshall Plumlee

Big-to-be-named

Kentucky Projected Roster (2014-15) (Graduating Seniors/Projected NBA-Draftee with * next to them)

Position (#/position-group)

Starter

Bench

Andrew Harrison*

Jarrod Polson

Dominique Hawkins

Aaron Harrison*

***

Alex Poythress (may stay)*

James Young

Julius Randle*

Kyle Wiltjer

Marcus Lee

Willie Cauley-Stein*

Dakari Johnson

Derek Willis

Kentucky 2014 Commits

Name

Player info

Starter-Rotation-Bench-RS

ESPN #

Rivals #

~Plan--A,B,C

Karl Towns Jr

C/PF, 7'1", 235

Starter

Kentucky OFFERS--BASIC INFO

targets (offered)

Player info (Pos, Ht, Wt)

Hometown (HS)

ESPN #

Rivals #

~Plan--A, B, C

Tyus Jones

PG, 6'1", 171

Apple Valley, MN (Apple Valley)

Jahlil Okafor

C, 6'10", 275

Chicago, IL (Whitney Young)

Rashad Vaughn

SG, 6'6", 200

Minneapolis, MN (Robbinsdale Cooper)

Cliff Alexander

C/PF, 6'8", 230

Chicago, IL (Curie)

Emmanuel Mudiay

PG, 6'4", 190

Arlington, TX (Prime Prep Academy)

Trey Lyles

PF, 6'8" 210

Indianapolis, IN (Arsenal Technical)

Stanley Johnson

SF, 6'6", 220

Fullerton, CA (Mater Dei)

Devin Booker

SG/G/F, 6'4", 185

Moss Point, MS (Moss Point High)

Kentucky Plan-of-Attack

Needs:

Plan A

Plan B

Best Guess:

1-2PG

Emmanuel Mudiay

Tyus Jones

Emmanuel Mudiay

2-3 Wings

Rashad Vaughn & Stanley Johnson

Devin Booker & yet-to-be-named

Rashad Vaughn & Stanley Johnson, (+ 1)

1-2 Bigs

Trey Lyles or Cliff Alexander

Big-to-be-named

Comments: Because Calipari already has Cauley-Stein and Randle for this coming year, that means that Dakari Johnson, Kyle Wiltjer, and Marcus Lee will all be coming off the bench. Looking ahead to the 2014 class, Calipari already has Karl Towns Jr. who like to play an Adreian Payne style of PF game. My guess is that Marcus Lee, Kyle Wiltjer, and Dakari Johnson all stay for the 2014-15 season, and that neither Cliff, nor Jahlil Okafor, nor Trey Lyles go to UK. I think for his PG Mudiay is his ideal (big, athletic, aggressive--a la John Wall) and that he will get him. I think Rashad Vaughn goes to UK to pair with James Young and/or Poythress (who may be a 3 year guy...) or Stanley Johnson. In short I think that this creates a "down-year" recruiting-wise for UK, but leaves them with a terrific team

Kentucky Projected Roster (2014-15) (Best Case Roster--Spots All Spots Filled, projected lineups)

Position (#/position-group)

Starter

Bench

Emmanuel Mudiay

Jarrod Polson

Dominique Hawkins

Rashad Vaughn

James Young

Stanley Johnson

Karl Towns Jr.

Kyle Wiltjer

Dakari Johnson

Marcus Lee

Derek Willis

Kansas Projected Roster (2014-15) (Graduating Seniors/Projected NBA-Draftee with * next to them)

Position (#/position-group)

Starter

Bench

Naadir Tharpe

Conner Frankamp

Frank Mason

Rio Adams

Brannen Greene

Andrew Wiggins*

Wayne Selden

Joel Embiid

Kansas 2014 Commits

Name

Player info

Starter-Rotation-Bench-RS

ESPN #

Rivals #

~Plan--A,B,C

Kansas OFFERS--BASIC INFO

targets (offered)

Player info (Pos, Ht, Wt)

Hometown (HS)

ESPN #

Rivals #

~Plan--A, B, C

Tyus Jones

PG, 6'1", 171

Apple Valley, MN (Apple Valley)

Jahlil Okafor

C, 6'10", 275

Chicago, IL (Whitney Young)

Rashad Vaughn

SG, 6'6", 200

Minneapolis, MN (Robbinsdale Cooper)

Justise Winslow

SF, 6'5", 205

Houston, TX (Saint John's)

Emmanuel Mudiay

PG, 6'4", 190

Arlington, TX (Prime Prep Academy)

Kevon Looney

PF/F, 6'8", 200

Milwaukee, WI (Milwaukee Hamilton)

Jordan McLaughlin

PG, 6'0", 155

Rancho Cucamonga, CA (Etiwanda HS)

Stanley Johnson

SF, 6'6", 220

Fullerton, CA (Mater Dei)

Josh Perkins

PG, 6'3", 185

Denver, CO (Regis Jesuit)

Abdul-Malik Abu

PF, 6'8", 220

Boston, MA (Kimball Union Academy)

Isaiah Whitehead

SG, 6'4", 195

Brooklyn, NY (Lincoln HS)

Kelly Oubre

SF, 6'6", 190

Fort Bend, TX (Bush HS)

Isaac Haas

C, 7'1", 275

Hokes Bluff, AL (Hokes Bluff HS)

Ahmed Hill

SG, 6'5", 190

Augusta, GA (Aquinas HS)

Kansas Plan-of-Attack

Needs:

Plan A

Plan B

Best Guess:

1-2 Guards/Wings

Jones, Vaughn, Winslow, Mudiay

McLaughlin, Johnson, Perkins, Whitehead, Oubre, Hill

One of the plan B Guards

1-2 Bigs

Okafor, Looney

Abu, Haas (and Myles Turner-fast rising late-bloomer)

either Haas or Myles Turner

Comments: Bill Self's team is going to have a big year in 2013-14, but I don't think he is going to lose many of his players. Andrew Wiggins will be gone, for sure, but I think that Tarik Black (recent transfer from Memphis) will really take a lot of minutes that would've otherwise gone to Embiid--a fast-rising center prospect. Embiid probably could have gone 1-and-done after next season if Black hadn't joined, but I think he will stay another year. I am very doubtful that Naadir Tharpe leaves after this year, but I think he will be a very good player this year, and will be poised for greatness his senior year. Filling out the back court/wings will be Rio Adams, Conner Frankamp, Brannen Greene, and Wayne Selden---I doubt very much that any of these guys leave after this coming season, which means the backcourt and wings will be pretty much full...I doubt very much that any of the top 2014 PG prospects head to Kansas. They might get a guy like Oubre or Whitehead, who sit for a year before becoming studs... looking back to the front court I doubt very much that Embiid leaves after a year, or that Perry Ellis, Traylor, or Lucas leave, which means that I think that Self will have probably 8-10 guys returning and almost no new additions. I think 2014 will be a year of secondary prospects for Kansas, before they heat up again in 2015. To wit, they just added Jerrance Howard to the staff, so the guys he will be most impactful with are the next set of Chicago/Illinois kids (of which there appear to be a bunch (including DJ williams and Charles Matthews)--that way he can really build the relationship for a few years, vs trying to loop back in to this most recent Chicago group. I think Kansas ends up with 1-2 guys who are on the second or third tier of prospects, and they don't bat an eyelash because they will be returning almost an entire Final 4 roster...

Kansas Projected Roster (2014-15) (Best Case Roster--Spots All Spots Filled, projected lineups)

Position (#/position-group)

Starter

Bench

Naadir Tharpe

Conner Frankamp

Frank Mason

Rio Adams

Brannen Greene

Isaiah Whitehead

Wayne Selden

Andrew White III

Perry Ellis

Jamari Traylor

Justin Wesley

Joel Embiid

Landen Lucas

Isaac Haas

Baylor Projected Roster (2014-15) (Graduating Seniors/Projected NBA-Draftee with * next to them)

Position (#/position-group)

Starter

Bench

Kenny Cherry

Allerik Freeman

Open*

Brady Heslip*

Gary Franklin*

Open*

Ishmail Wainright

***

Open*

Ricardo Gathers*

Cory Jefferson*

Isaiah Austin*

Johnathan Motley

Baylor 2014 Commits

Name

Player info

Starter-Rotation-Bench-RS

ESPN #

Rivals #

~Plan--A,B,C

Baylor OFFERS--BASIC INFO

targets (offered)

Player info (Pos, Ht, Wt)

Hometown (HS)

ESPN #

Rivals #

~Plan--A, B, C

Tyus Jones

PG, 6'1", 171

Apple Valley, MN (Apple Valley)

Jahlil Okafor

C, 6'10", 275

Chicago, IL (Whitney Young)

Rashad Vaughn

SG, 6'6", 200

Minneapolis, MN (Robbinsdale Cooper)

Justise Winslow

SF, 6'5", 205

Houston, TX (Saint John's)

Emmanuel Mudiay

PG, 6'4", 190

Arlington, TX (Prime Prep Academy)

Leron Black

PF, 6'7", 215

Memphis, TN (White Station HS)

Cliff Alexander

C/PF, 6'8", 230

Chicago, IL (Curie)

Kelly Oubre

SF, 6'6", 190

Fort Bend, TX (Bush HS)

Khadeem Lattin

C, 6'9", 190

Houston, TX (Redemption Christian Homeschool)

Myles Turner

C, 6'11", 225

Euless, TX (Trinity HS)

Baylor Plan-of-Attack

Needs:

Plan A

Plan B

Best Guess:

1-2PG

Emannuel Mudiay or Tyus Jones

Probably another Juco

Plan B (Juco guard, or yet-to-be-named)

2-3 Wings

Justise Winslow, Rashad Vaughn

Kelly Oubre (and other low tier guys)

Winslow (maybe), or Oubre

2-3 Bigs

Jahlil Okafor, Leron Black, Cliff Alexander

Khadeem Lattin, Myles Turner

Black, and 1 or both plan B bigs

Comments: Frankly, I have no idea how a top-level recruit would ever want to play for Scott Drew. The man has done nothing but recruit top-level talent and do nothing with it (except for 1 Final Four run back in 2010). This year will be a huge "prove-it" year for him I think as he returns 3 of his top 4 players, in cluding future draft picks (Austin, Gathers, and Jefferson). He is certainly playing with the big-boys though as far as recruiting going after the same guys that Kentucky, Kansas, (MSU), and Duke are aiming for (and OSU). I don't know that he will hit many as many big wins this coming year though. I am betting that he misses on the top two point guards, and gets another Juco or lower-tier guy (yet to be named), but I do think he has a great chance to get Justise Winslow who is a local kid, and would be THE star on the team along with Leron Black (who comitted early, then decommitted, and, I am betting, will recommit to Baylor). He also has a great shot to get Oubre, who is also a Texas kid---both he and Justise Winslow are from the Houston area, about 3 hours from Waco (Winslow's family would not get to see him play at Duke...). I am betting that he also gets 1-2 of the plan B bigs, which will leave him in pretty good shape moving forward. Alternatively, if he does not have a good season this year (given all the returning talent), which is possible seeing as how I don't think the guy can coach his way out of a hat-box, then his seat may very well heat up...

Baylor Projected Roster (2014-15) (Best Case Roster--Spots All Spots Filled, projected lineups)

Position (#/position-group)

Starter

Bench

Kenny Cherry

Plan-B Guard

Open

Allerik Freeman

Plan-B Wing

Open

Ishmail Wainright

Plan-B Wing

Open

Leron Black

Johnathan Motley

Khadeem Lattin

Myles Turner

Ohio State Projected Roster (2014-15) (Graduating Seniors/Projected NBA-Draftee with * next to them)

Position (#/position-group)

Starter

Bench

Aaron Craft*

Shannon Scott

Lenzell Smith Jr*

Kameron Williams

Sam Thompson*

Marc Loving

Amedeo Della Valle

Laquinton Ross*

***

Amir Williams

Trey McDonald

Ohio State 2014 Commits

Name

Player info

Starter-Rotation-Bench-RS

ESPN #

Rivals #

~Plan--A,B,C

Jae'Sean Tate

SG, 6'5", 190

Rotation

David Bell

PF, 6'9" 200

Bench

103

Keita Bates-Diop

PF, 6'7", 190

Starter

D'Angelo Russell

SG, 6'5"190

Starter/Rotation

Ohio State OFFERS--BASIC INFO

targets (offered)

Player info (Pos, Ht, Wt)

Hometown (HS)

ESPN #

Rivals #

~Plan--A, B, C

Tyus Jones

PG, 6'1", 171

Apple Valley, MN (Apple Valley)

Jahlil Okafor

C, 6'10", 275

Chicago, IL (Whitney Young)

Cliff Alexander

C/PF, 6'8", 230

Chicago, IL (Curie)

D'Angelo Russell

SG, 6'5"190

Louisville, KY (Monteverde Academy)

Jalen Lindsey

SF, 6'7" 180

Franklin, TN (Huntington Prep)

Leron Black

PF, 6'7", 215

Memphis, TN (White Station HS)

JaQuan Lyle

PG, 6'4", 185

Evansville, IN (Bosse HS)

Paul White

SF, 6'8", 185

Chicago, IL (Whitney Young)

LJ Peak

SF, 6'5", 190

Chicago, IL (Whitney Young)--originally from SC

Ohio State Plan-of-Attack

Needs:

Plan A

Plan B

Best Guess:

1 PG

Tyus Jones or JaQuan Lyle

PG yet-to-be-named

yet-to-be-named

1-2 Wings

D'Angelo Russell and/or Lindsey

White and Peak

D'Angelo Russell and a Plan B guy

1 Bigs

Okafor, Alexander, Black

Big yet-to-be-named

either a Plan B big or no one

Comments: Ohio State is in great shape already for 2014 having Jae'Sean Tate and Keita Bates Diop locked up along with a depth Big in David Bell. Shannon Scott will be a very good PG moving into his senior year, and Amir Williams will be a spotlight player (theoretically), so I doubt very much that they land Tyus Okafor. I think they will probably add 1-2 more wing players and maybe a PG yet-to-be-named to this list, and then call it quits. I am betting that Sam Thompson stays for his senior year, even though I am projecting that he leaves. My honest guess is that with Craft and LaQuinton Ross as the stars of the team, along with Amir Williams (theoretically),Sam Thompson will stay, but for argument's/projections sake he is leaving. OSU has also just gotten a commitment from D'Angelo Russell, which is a great get for them and will ensures that their back-court/wings are solid for the next 3 years or so.

Ohio State Projected Roster (2014-15) (Best Case Roster--Spots All Spots Filled, projected lineups)

Position (#/position-group)

Starter

Bench

Shannon Scott

PG yet-to-be-named

Open

Jae'Sean Tate

Kameron Williams

D'Angelo Russell
(Committed)

Marc Loving

Amedeo Della Valle

Keita Bates Diop

David Bell

Amir Williams

Trey McDonald

Other specific "threats" to MSU targets:

School

Target

Threat Level/Comment

Devin Booker

High/I think he chooses between UM and MSU

Devin Booker

High/I think he chooses between UM and MSU--but UK could move on him if their top wing targets say no

Kevon Looney

High/I think he chooses between UM, MSU, Duke, Marquette, and Wisconsin

Wisconsin

Kevon Looney

High/I think he chooses between UM, MSU, Duke, Marquette, and Wisconsin

Marquette

Kevon Looney

High/I think he chooses between UM, MSU, Duke, Marquette, and Wisconsin

MSU 2014 Predictions

Recruiting-Battle Deciding Recruits/Players-on-Competitor-Schools
School	Player	Affected Recruit	Prediction/Comment
Duke	Quinn Cook	Tyus Jones	I doubt Quinn Cook goes pro after his Junior year, which means that Tyus Jones would have to share the point with Quinn Cook. This is the single biggest question to play out this coming year. Hopefully Cook takes a step, but not a huge one. Prediction: Cook stays for his senior year and Jones goes elsewhere.
Duke	Rodney Hood	Justise Winslow	Rodney Hood will be sharing the SF/wing with Jabari Parker this year and will likely stay for another year so that he can be the BMOC his junior year. If he stays as "the star" Winslow looks elsewhere (especially if Matt Jones and Semi Ojeyele show well this next year).
Duke	Semi Ojeyele	Justise Winslow	Rodney Hood will definitely be good this year, but if he is not NBA ready (as I am betting he won't be), then Ojeyele will be scrapping for minuntes and looking for a big role his sophomore year (still from the bench), playing the exact same position that Winslow would hope to have.
Duke	Marshall Plumlee	Jahlil Okafor	Marshall Plumlee looked solid for a freshman second-tier big-man. He has good athleticism and agility, great height, and great pedigree. I am guessing that he does well this coming year and looks to be a star-in-the-making moving into the 2014-15 season. This would never scare Okafor away, but I am guessing that it helps muddy the waters of the Big-Three scenario...
Duke	Amile Jefferson	Kevon Looney/Trey Lyles	Amile Jefferson is reportedly bulking up and looking to really improve off of a strong Freshman season, I think he will take a step-up, but not be ready to leave after this year. I project him as part of a powerhouse line-up of returning players for Duke moving into the 2014-15 season.
Duke	Justise Winslow	Tyus Jones/Jahlil Okafor	Justise Winslow is great friends with Jones and Okafor, and there are many analysists predicting that all three end up attending Duke together. I think it is possible, but I doubt it will happen. Winslow is from Texas and has many other possible locations that would be much, much clearer for him roster-wise (Baylor, Florida, Arizona, UCLA, and Stanford will all have either starting or sole-back-up spots with his name on them, which Duke will not have). So while I rate the possibility of this trio ending up at Duke at about 55%, I am very doubtful that this happens. If Winslow commits to Duke early, the chances get higher...he is a very important non-MSU-recruit to track. The most important.
Duke	Trey Lyles	Kevon Looney	Trey Lyles an IU-decommit is looking at 6 schools (Duke, UK, Louisville, UCLA, Butler, and Florida), I am guessing he is really choosing between the first three, and really between Duke and Louisville. He is an inside-out PF, and a heck of a player. But he would be moving into a PF rotation with Jefferson (is my guess), and that may be too rich for him to swallow. If he does commit that basically takes Duke out of the Kevon Looney running. For MSU's purposes we want him to commit to Duke, UK, Louisville, or Florida (as these are all schools targeting Looney). An early commitment here, would be a great thing for MSU.

Kentucky	Dakari Johnson	Cliff Alexander & Jahlil Okafor	Dakari Johnson is a very good center prospect, a very complete player, who will be a dominant force on the collegiate level. The problem for him, that helps MSU's recruitment of Alexander and Okafor, is that he will be planted firmly behind Willie Cauley-Stein this year. A fact that, I believe, will ensure that he stays for another year. He may go "Daniel Orton," but I doubt it because Calipari has designs on him being the starting center to Karl Towns Jr.'s starting 4 (which would be an incredible duo). Keep an eye on Dakari Johnson--if he is breaking out and taking Cauley-Stein's minutes, then that is bad for MSU. The real challenge for MSU hopes is that the NBA loves potential and therefore may draft the kid even if he only plays 10-15 minutes a game (a la Daniel Orton---I will tell you now, Johnson is better than Orton was, so it would be a reasonable bet to take...). Bottom line: MSU wants this kid coming back for a sophomore campaign (from a recruiting stand-point that is).
Kentucky	Kyle Wiltjer	Cliff Alexander & Jahlil Okafor	Kyle Wiltjer is a solid, if unspectacular player, the least athletic kid to ever play for Calipari, he will not leave after this year (or rather I would be shocked if he did); he is simply a non-functional NBA athlete, who lacks the speed, strength, or agility to guard any NBA player let alone position. He will stay and continue to eat up minutes at the PF spot--I am sure that Calipari regrets ever signing him as he has really been a clog in the UK-NBA artery. However, if he does leave then the PF rotation opens up more for Alexander (and Okafor). If he somehow (I am trying not to laugh here) becomes a stud this year, then that will spell trouble for MSU's recruitment of Alexander.
Kentucky	Marcus Lee	Cliff Alexander & Jahlil Okafor	Marcus Lee is probably Calipari's greatest luxury this year, a second PF commit who will be fighting for back-up minutes. Calipari realizes that he needs experienced players to win a championship, and Lee is basically already locked in (I would imagine) as one of his "returning sophomores next year who is ready to breakout." From the MSU perspective, this is a very good thing. The more the UK PF/C rotation can be clogged by guys like Lee and Wiltjer, the less likely it is that either Alexander or Okafor (doubtful anyways) will go to UK. Again, if Lee blows up or takes all of the back-up PF minutes then that is a problem for MSU's recruitment of Cliff Alexander.
Kentucky	Alex Poythress	Devin Booker	Poythress was a mystery all season long his freshman year, not as talented as previous tweener-forwards he failed to impact the season or score consistently. Looking ahead to this season, nothing is guaranteed for him, which is why he is potentially an "MSU-helper." While clearly a SF Poythress may struggle to dominate this year. He will be the number 4-5 option on the court if he starts (behind the Harrisons, Cauley-Stein, and Randle), and the wings will be clogged by Aaron Harrison, James Young, and Wiltjer (stealing some SF minutes I am sure). He may find himself as a junior on this team (although something tells me that he will get shoved out the door by Calipari, but we will have to see on that), which would be good news for MSU's competeing wing recruitments like Devin Booker and D'Angelo Russell. Although they play the 2 and Poythress the 3, Calipari's wing-interchanging means that there are really 4 positions on the court: PG, Wingx2, PF, C. So while Booker would not be a direct replacement he would have to consider all other wing factors in the 2014-15 rotation as competitors for minutes. If Poythress goes pro, it is not the end of the world for MSU recruitments (especially because Booker is a low-tier back-up for UK), but it is not preferable.
Kentucky	James Young	Devin Booker	James Young should do very well at UK and should get plenty of run this year, but, because he is a freshman and it is foolish to predict freshmen seasons, he may not explode. If he struggles, and looks poised to return for a second year, then that will be great news for MSU's wing recruitments that conflict with UK. I predict that he goes pro after 1 year, but if he stays that would be great for MSU. Keep an eye on him and how many minutes he gets/how productive he is this coming season, especially early on. It will be fun to watch MSU's wings defned a guy, in the second game of the season, who never really considered MSU after Calipari came calling.
Kentucky	Emmanuel Mudiay	Tyus Jones	Mudiay is the prototypical UK point recruit. Big, fast, physical, an attacker, and more of a full-throttle guy. This is the guy that Calipari would love to have, more so than Tyus Jones I believe. If Mudiay commits then you can count UK out of the Jones/Okafor race. I believe it will happen, and I would not be surprised if it happens this summer or early in the fall. There are a lot of good point guards in this class, so if Mudiay does not commit UK will get some other good players, but I would be surprised if he did not end up at UK. If he does not go to UK MSU fans should hope he goes to Baylor or Kansas.
Kentucky	Trey Lyles	Cliff Alexander & Jahlil Okafor	Trey Lyles plays the same role, from the MSU perspective, that Wiltjer, Lee, and Dakari Johnson play: he makes an Alexander/Okafor commitment to UK much less likely. In fact, if Trey Lyles commits to UK then I would bet that Alexander commits to MSU and doesn't look back. I have covered his inside-out, polished game, and I am sure that his only hesitation about UK is the presence of Karl Towns Jr. who appears to play the exact same position/game that Lyles plays. It will be interesting to see where Lyles ends up, as Louisville is, I believe, the other major player. MSU fans want Lyles at either UK or Duke, as a commitment to either would help push either Kevon Looney or Cliff Alexander closer to MSU.
Kentucky	Rashad Vaughn	Devin Booker	Rashad Vaughn is the SG in the 2014 class. Great size, great stroke from distance, and a terrific ball-handler/driver/slasher. I don't have a ton of insight into his recruitment, but I would imagine that he is one of Calipari's top priorities. To replace the Harrison brothers, and probably James Young, as the primary perimeter scorer. From the MSU perspective, a Vaughn commit would cast a pall over any further pursuit of Devin Booker, who I believe is going to choose between UM, MSU, and Florida.

Kansas	Naadir Tharpe	Tyus Jones	In my initial Kansas comments I made it clear that I believe that Tharpe, like Quinn Cook at Duke, will have a solid if not quite star-making junior season. Both point guards have returning back-court and front-court players who should be the first and second options on their respective teams. Neither player oozes NBA potential in terms of measurables or athleticism, and I firmly believe that Tharpe (and Cook) will return for the senior seasons poised for a star turn. Both head coaches would love to see these junior oint guards become stars this coming season so that they can go to the NBA to make room for Jones (in Cook's case) or for either Jones or Mudiay (in Tharpe's case). I believe neither will take that big step, and that both coaches will settle for a second-tier point guard to groom for future seasons.
Kansas	Perry Ellis & Jamari Traylor	Kevon Looney	I doubt very much that Kevon Looney is a top priority for Bill Self, but he certainly would fit well in the Kansas program. However, for that to happen either Perry Ellis, Jamari Traylor, or both, would need to declare for the NBA draft. While I think both probably have late-first, early-second potential, the somewhat surprising commitment of Andrew Wiggins, paired with the commitments of other wing and front court players guarantee that neither player will have nearly as much of a percentage of the spotlight as they might have previously been predicited to have had going into the season. My guess is that Perry Ellis will end up as the 2nd or 3rd leading scorer, while Traylor will become a hustling/physical back-up PF. Wiggins, Selden, and maybe Rio Adams, will be the big-time players on this team is my guess, and I strongly believe that both Ellis and Traylor will return for another year at the Phog, all-but guaranteeing that Kevon Looney looks elsewhere. If either blows up this year then this recruiting story may change...but I doubt that will happen.
Kansas	Joel Embiid	Jahlil Okafor	Embiid is a guy I am very keen to watch, he has all of the hallmarks of a one-and-done guy based on his measureables; however, what is yet to be seen is his ability to contribute and be productive at a high-level at the college level. I would not be surprised if he moved ahead of Tarik Black (memphis graduate transfer) into the starting line-up, but I am not sure how productive he will be in terms of point production, rebounds, and blocks. If he is solid he may be draftable based on potential alone, but Bill Self has this neat habit of getting his potentially draft-able big guys who had solid, but not spectacular, season to return for another year. That is my guess with Embiid, especially now that Tarik Black will be playing for at least half of every game. It is very hard for an NBA exec to draft a big man based on 15 min/game, even if he is an agile and athletic 7'2" tall...If Embiid dominates, then Okafor comes into play very quickly, but if, as I predict, he is only OK, then Okafor becomes a distant memory for KU, something MSU fans will be crossing their fingers for.
Kansas	Brannen Greene & Wayne Selden	Justise Winslow	Brannen Greene and Wayne Selden are guys that I think will become absolute stars on the college level. MSU fans have to hope that at least one of them becomes a HUGE star THIS year, along with Andrew Wiggins. Brannen Greene comes in as an NBA-sized 2-guard (6'6"), and Selden comes in as a small, but powerful, athletic, and dynamic 3 (6'5"). If Brannen Greene (or Selden) can usurp Rio Adams's returner-hold on the starting 2, then there is a slight possibility that one of these guys joins Andrew Wiggins in the NBA draft next summer. If that happens the Justise Winslow will definitely become a possibility. With the modern recruits' affinity for going to schools that other great players who play thier position recently attended, Winslow might consider KU for Wiggins' commitment alone. But because he might have a great shot at starting at the wing for Kansas if either of these guys blows up, KU becomes a much more enticing proposition, not to mention it is about 500 miles closer to Houston, TX than Durham, NC...MSU fans ideal situation would be Winslow ending up at either KU or UCLA (where he just visited recently), because KU is not one of the biggest factors in the Tyus Jones/Jahlil Okafor recruitments. If Selden or Greene play a major role for KU this year along with Wiggins MSU fans should be excited, from a recruiting standpoint.

Baylor	Ricardo Gathers	Leron Black & Cliff Alexander	Ricardo Gathers will be the 3rd man in the 3-headed monster that is the Baylor frontcourt this coming season. It is possible that Rico will go pro--he has the body, the athleticism, the power--but, at the same time he has NONE of the skill of an NBA big man (especially not those that he would compete against in the draft, including his own teammates). My guess is that he returns to Baylor, poised to be one of their big stars. If that happens then look for Cliff Alexander to definitely look elsewhere (if he was ever really considering Baylor). This may also push Leron Black away from Baylor, but I do not think that Black and Gathers are mutually exclusive players, especially not in Scott Drew's let's just put the best guys we can recruit on the court, give them jerseys and a ball, and hope they win games method of coaching... if Gathers dominates and looks poised to go pro, then Alexander potentially comes more into play.
Baylor	Leron Black	Cliff Alexander	Leron Black committed to Baylor last year, only to decommit. He is from Memphis, TN, and has Baylor, UCONN, Florida, Illinios, NC State, OSU, and Tennessee on his list. I have no definite insight on where he is leaning; however, it should be noted that his HS and AAU teammate, PG Chris Chiozza just committed to Florida. I think that Baylor is still in play, and that is a good thing for MSU. We want Black to go to either Baylor, Illinois, or OSU. A commitment at any of these three would take them off of Cliff's radar I would imagine.
Baylor	Ishmail Wainright	Justise Winslow	Ishmail Wainright is a SF committed to Baylor who will be a freshman this year. There is no way that he will be a one-and-done player, but at the same time, there is no way that his presence will scare away Justise Winslow. Baylor must be considered among the first or second tier of schools he is looking at, and MSU fans can only hope that Winslow commits to Baylor. Even though they would definitely have the space to take both Tyus Jones and Jahlil Okafor, I would think that it would be a major coup if those two "joined" Winslow in Waco if that is where the small forward ends up.
Baylor	Kenny Cherry	Tyus Jones	Kenny Cherry is a JuCo guard, looking to step into Pierre Jackson's vacant PG spot. I have no intel on this player whatsoever, but clearly, if he becomes a star (as Jackson did) Tyus Jones would be much less likely to join the Bears. MSU fans should be pulling for Cherry to succeed.
Baylor	Michael Dixon	(Kenny Cherry and Tyus Jones)	Michael Dixon (who got kicked out of Missouri after multiple alleged sexual misadventures) may end up transferring to Baylor. If he does he will try to get a waiver from the NCAA to play immediately this coming season, if he does not and has to sit out a year then that would cast immediate and strong doubt over the possibility of any Tyus Jones commitment. Dixon was a very good PG at Missouri, often their best player despite Phil Pressy's command on the starting spot. If Dixon lands at Baylor it would be a good thing for MSU--even if he plays immediately that merely gives Cherry a guaranteed year of spotlight his senior year, while Jones would clearly come in as the favorite in either situation, the muddier the waters are for MSU the better.
Baylor	Justise Winslow	Tyus Jones & Jahlil Okafor	As explained previously, Winslow is looking to partner with Jones and Okafor at Duke, which I view as a real possibility. But if he were to commit early to Baylor, he might put Baylor into a great position to continue functionally and hopefully recruiting the duo. MSU fans would ideally like for Winslow to end up at UCLA, followed by Kansas, then Florida, and only then Baylor. An early commitment by Winslow to Baylor (or Duke) surely puts MSU's chances with the duo in further jeopardy.
Baylor	Khadeem Lattin & Myles Turner	Jahlil Okafor	Khadeem Lattin and Myles Turner both fill in the second tier of bigs that Baylor are pursuing, and an early commitment by one or both of these two would, again, cloud the frontcourt picture, and push Jahlil Okafor and Cliff Alexander further away from a commitment. Ideally for MSU, one or both of these two sign/commit to Baylor as soon as possible.

Ohio State	Shannon Scott	Tyus Jones	Where Naadir Tharpe and Quinn Cook, in my projections, present a potential roadblock to Tyus Jones filling a team's starting PG spot as returning starters, Shannon Scott mirrors Travis Trice: career back-ups leading into their senior years, both would do admirably as a senior starter, but both would probably best serve their teams as back-up to Tyus Jones. Shannon Scott is further along in his development and I think will be very strong this coming year (I doubt MSU is gifted any more game-altering mistakes from Shannon Scott...). I think Tyus Jones would clearly come in and start over Scott, so from an MSU perspective, we should hope that the gap between the two players narrows as much as possible if MSU is going to see Tyus Jones look away from OSU.
Ohio State	Amir Williams	Jahlil Okafor	Amir Williams...this guy should be really good, but just is not. That being said, this coming season his role and his expected out-put will really increase. If he can demonstrate any real competnecy then, again the Center position becomes much less obviously Okafor's. Yes, Okafor would come in and play, but Williams would also play a ton. And his competent presence alone would probably push Okafor away from OSU. Williams is in the same position that Plumlee is for Duke, the hope for MSU fans is that both Plumlee and Williams really see their games take off this coming year.
Ohio State	Keita Bates Diop	Cliff Alexander	Keita Bates Diop, a stud PF comit for this coming year should have the power-forward position locked up for the next 3-4 years (I cannot envision him leaving for the NBA before his junior season), which intrinsically should mean that Cliff Alexander does not put OSU in his top choices. The fact that Keita Bates Diop will probably have a lot of success this coming year, looking like a star moving into his sophomore campaign will guarantee it.
Ohio State	Jae'Sean Tate & Kameron Williams	D'Angelo Russell	Jae'Sean Tate & Kameron Williams, are the two wing players committed over the next two years already, which, as far as I can tell, should, from a minutes standpoint alone, put OSU on the outside looking in for D'Angelo Russell. Russell is a guy that has recent MSU interest, and might be a great fit for MSU--he is from Louisville, KY but is not being pursued by UK or heavily by Louisville. If MSU picks up interest the main competition may be Florida, Missouri, Memphis, UNC, and Arizona. I think that MSU coaches are feeling him out as a possible secondary target if Devin Booker goes elsewhere.

MSU Prediction Time for 2014 Class

Let's start with what I am confident of: Cliff Alexander. I am not sure what his timeline is for his recruitment, although he looks like a fall commit, but I am confident that all of the pieces that will move around him at MSU's various competitors, will lead him directly to MSU. We have been on him for a long time, he has a great relationship with the coaches, and Adrien Payne will serve, this coming season, as the ideal model for Cliff to emulate in his (likely) only season in college.

Looking at the Jones-Okafor recruitment process I am tentatively and possibly excited: the major player as we all know is Duke. Duke is big with both for one reason alone--Coach K; however, the roster situation that the two players might be facing at Duke as freshmen might make Duke one of their less-appealing options. To wit, Quinn Cook might be the most important non-MSU player for MSU fans to track as far as our recruitments go. If, as I predict, Cook will be very good but not great, and not 1st-round draft worthy (there are going to be a number of very good PG NBA prospects next year, and Cook does not have the measurables to separate himself from the second tier of PGs to safely declare and get drafted.), next year then I see him coming back to Duke as a senior PG, who has started the previous two seasons. While Tyus Jones may be terrific, there is no way that he would take all of Cook's minutes and relegate him to cheering from the bench as a senior. Then you look at the front court, Mashall Plumlee has shown us approximately 0 to date, and he is coming off of foot surgery this offseason, but he has great pedigree and solid athleticism. Furthermore, he is definitely a back-to-the-basket old school C, and will have a TON of opportunity this coming season. With no other centers on the roster, he will start as long as he is healthy (is my guess) and will probably blossom by the end of the season into a very solid player. Again, looking ahead to the 2014-15 year, a competent and veteran Plumlee will be very difficult to fully dislodge even for a top-level talent like Jahlil Okafor. I would predict that both players would come in and start, but I think that Cook/Plumlee would take more minutes from the duo than say Trice/Costello. Further complicating that scenario is Justise Winslow, who would really have a stacked depth chart to play his way into at Duke if he were to commit and try to team up with Tyus Okafor. I'm not saying it won't happen, but I doubt that it ends up that way. I would say that Duke is the leader for both, but not a prohibitive favorite. When looking at the other schools they have in common here is what I see: Baylor--worst coach, no track record of success; Kentucky--not pushing hard for a variety of reasons Jones isn't Cal's #1, the frontcourt will be packed and Cal prefers not to throw the ball into the post 20 times a game; Kansas--stacked frontcourt (with Embiid likely back for a second and final year before the lottery) and the second strongest returning PG (Tharpe) that Jones would have to unseat; OSU--third strongest PG that Jones would have to unseat (Scott), strongest (or tied with Embiid and possibly Dakari Johnson at Kentucky) returning center for Okafor to unseat. MSU would have the "weakest" returning PG for Jones to "unseat" in Trice (who is awesome, and I love him, but will simply not be as good as Cook, Tharpe, or Scott will be after this coming season (unless he makes a HUGE jump, in which case we would not even need Jones)), and certainly the weakest returning center for Okafor to unseat (of the serious candidates that is, which are Duke, UK, Kansas, OSU, and MSU--I just cannot possibly imagine these two at Baylor, who will have no center and no real challenge at PG, but also very little talent and very little depth and DEFINITELY the worst coach among the lot) in Costello. When looking at the combination of the three main factors: Coach, roster situation, and talent/depth/NCAA title chances, MSU is either 1st or second in each category, and I really believe that Jones and Okafor will end up at MSU.

Looking at the secondary/ "play-in" guys Tyler Ulis, Devin Booker, and Kevon Looney. I think that MSU will end up with 1-2 of these guys. I strongly believe that we will end up with Tyler Ulis, and that he will red-shirt his freshman season, while Jones and Trice hold down the fort. The stage will be perfectly set for Ulis to take over the point for the next four glorious years, and I think that this is something that Izzo will be able to sell.

I am guessing that (unless there is attrition) we will end up with one of either Looney or Booker (or Reid Travis, or Jordan Barnett, or D'Angelo Russel). My great hope is that the guy we get is Looney--I see a ton of Raymar Morgan in his game (even if he is less physically gifted and more skilled than Raymar) this is a kid that works hard, defends well, is extremely long, rebounds terrifically (especially on the offensive end), and knows how to score inside. His recruitment appears to be moving slowly, but I think it is clear that MSU is in the thick of things. I doubt very much that he ends up at Duke as Amile Jefferson will be the firmly entrenched PF his junior year, and may even be joined by Trey Lyles. Wisconsin is an option, but I am guessing that Bo's style scares Looney off. The real question for me is Marquette, and maybe Florida. Marquette has a history with long MSU forward recruits--specifically Jamil Wilson (who would've been nice to have last season...)--and Florida will have a lot of space on its roster for Looney to step into. As long as MSU keeps pressing home with him I think we can move into the driver's seat, but it will be interesting to see how his recruitment plays out, and what postion he projects as at the collegiate level. I see him as a devilishly long wing player, who can also play PF, and for that very reason he would not conflict with Cliff Alexander (assuming Branden Dawson leaves after this year, which might happen). If it is not Looney then Booker would also be a terrific addition to the team. His recruitment seems to have both UM and MSU squarely involved, with potential suitors UNC, Duke, Florida, Missouri, and UK all in the picture as well. Duke already has a high-level SG, UK is targeting Vaughn, UNC has a number of wings already committed, and Florida, Missouri, and UNC are all ~~also closely recruiting D'Angelo Russell~~ now going to have to add in additional wing targets now that D'Angelo Russell is off the board (as will MSU). I think when the music stops that UM will end up with Booker, but I would not be shocked if he came to MSU given that the only wings on the roster will be Valentine, Ellis, and Byrd.

In summation I think that Izzo will somehow pull off the master-wonder: Cliff Alexander, Tyus Jones, Jahlil Okafor, Tyler Ulis (RS), and Kevon Looney.

(Bump - Lot of hard work put together here. Sorry I missed it a few days ago. Also, note that D'Angelo Russell has since selected Ohio State - Chris)

School-by-School:
Projected Roster Outlook for 2014-15 Season
Current 2014 Commits
Current 2014 Offers & Best-Guess Recruiting Plans-of-Attack

MSU Projected Roster (2014-15) (Graduating Seniors/Projected NBA-Draftee with * next to them)

Position (#/position-group)

Starter

Bench

Open*

Alvin Ellis

Open*

Gavin Schilling

MSU 2014 Commits

Name

Player info

Starter-Rotation-Bench-RS

ESPN #

Rivals #

~Plan--A,B,C

MSU OFFERS--BASIC INFO

targets (offered)

Player info (Pos, Ht, Wt)

Hometown (HS)

ESPN #

Rivals #

Plan--A, B, C

Cliff Alexander

C/PF, 6'8", 230

Chicago, IL (Curie)

Tyus Jones

PG, 6'1", 171

Apple Valley, MN (Apple Valley)

Jahlil Okafor

C, 6'10", 275

Chicago, IL (Whitney Young)

Kevon Looney

PF/F, 6'8", 200

Milwaukee, WI (Milwaukee Hamilton)

Devin Booker

SG, 6'4", 185

Moss Point, MS (Moss Point High)

Tyler Ulis

PG, 5'8", 150

Chicago Heights, IL (Marian Catholic)

Reid Travis

PF, 6'8", 240

Minneapolis, MS (De La Salle High)

Abdul-Malik Abu

PF, 6'8", 220

Boston, MA (Kimball Union Academy)

Jordan Barnett

SF, 6'7", 185

Saint Lousi, MO (Christian Brothers)

B-C

MSU Plan-of-Attack

Needs:

Plan A

Plan B

Best Guess:

1-2 PG

Tyus Jones

Tyler Ulis

Both (Ulis RS)

1-2 Wings

Kevon Looney/Devin Booker

Jordan Barnett

Kevon Looney

1-2 Bigs

Cliff Alexander & Jahlil Okafor

Reid Travis, Abdul-Malik Abu

Plan A

MSU Projected Roster (2014-15) (Best Case Roster--Spots All Spots Filled, projected lineups)

Position (#/position-group)

Starter

Bench

Tyus Jones

Travis Trice

Tyler Ulis (RS)

Denzel Valentine

Alvin Ellis

Kevon Looney

Russell Byrd

Cliff Alexander

Kenny Kaminski

Jahlil Okafor

Matt Costello

Gavin Schilling (RS)

Duke Projected Roster (2014-15) (Graduating Seniors/Projected NBA-Draftee with * next to them)

Position (#/position-group)

Starter

Bench

Open*

Matt Jones

Jabari Parker*

Semi Ojeyele

***

Duke 2014 Commits

Name

Player info

Starter-Rotation-Bench-RS

ESPN #

Rivals #

~Plan--A,B,C

Grayson Allen

Starter/Rotation

Duke OFFERS--BASIC INFO

targets (offered)

Player info (Pos, Ht, Wt)

Hometown (HS)

ESPN #

Rivals #

~Plan--A, B, C

Tyus Jones

PG, 6'1", 171

Apple Valley, MN (Apple Valley)

Jahlil Okafor

C, 6'10", 275

Chicago, IL (Whitney Young)

Trey Lyles

PF, 6'8" 210

Indianapolis, IN (Arsenal Technical)

Rashad Vaughn

SG, 6'6", 200

Minneapolis, MN (Robbinsdale Cooper)

Justise Winslow

SF, 6'5", 205

Houston, TX (Saint John's)

Kevon Looney

PF/F, 6'8", 200

Milwaukee, WI (Milwaukee Hamilton)

Devin Booker

SG/G/F, 6'4", 185

Moss Point, MS (Moss Point High)

Josh Perkins

PG, 6'3", 185

Denver, CO (Regis Jesuit)

Phil Booth

SG, 6'2", 170

Baltimore, MD (Mount St Joesph)

Kaleb Joseph

PG, 6'3", 165

Nashua, NH (Cushing Academy)

Duke Plan-of-Attack

Needs:

Plan A

Plan B

Best Guess:

1 PG

Tyus Jones

Perkins or Joseph

1-2 Plan B PGs

1-2Wings

Rashad Vaughn & Justise Winslow

Devin Booker or Phil Booth

Justise Winslow

2 Bigs

Trey Lyles & Jahlil Okafor

Kevon Looney

Trey Lyles

Duke Projected Roster (2014-15) (Best Case Roster--Spots All Spots Filled, projected lineups)

Position (#/position-group)

Starter

Bench

Quinn Cook

Josh Perkins

Matt Jones

Justise Winslow

Rodney Hood

Semi Ojeyele

Alex Murphy

Trey Lyles

Amile Jefferson

Marshall Plumlee

Big-to-be-named

Kentucky Projected Roster (2014-15) (Graduating Seniors/Projected NBA-Draftee with * next to them)

Position (#/position-group)

Starter

Bench

Andrew Harrison*

Jarrod Polson

Dominique Hawkins

Aaron Harrison*

***

Alex Poythress (may stay)*

James Young

Julius Randle*

Kyle Wiltjer

Marcus Lee

Willie Cauley-Stein*

Dakari Johnson

Derek Willis

Kentucky 2014 Commits

Name

Player info

Starter-Rotation-Bench-RS

ESPN #

Rivals #

~Plan--A,B,C

Karl Towns Jr

C/PF, 7'1", 235

Starter

Kentucky OFFERS--BASIC INFO

targets (offered)

Player info (Pos, Ht, Wt)

Hometown (HS)

ESPN #

Rivals #

~Plan--A, B, C

Tyus Jones

PG, 6'1", 171

Apple Valley, MN (Apple Valley)

Jahlil Okafor

C, 6'10", 275

Chicago, IL (Whitney Young)

Rashad Vaughn

SG, 6'6", 200

Minneapolis, MN (Robbinsdale Cooper)

Cliff Alexander

C/PF, 6'8", 230

Chicago, IL (Curie)

Emmanuel Mudiay

PG, 6'4", 190

Arlington, TX (Prime Prep Academy)

Trey Lyles

PF, 6'8" 210

Indianapolis, IN (Arsenal Technical)

Stanley Johnson

SF, 6'6", 220

Fullerton, CA (Mater Dei)

Devin Booker

SG/G/F, 6'4", 185

Moss Point, MS (Moss Point High)

Kentucky Plan-of-Attack

Needs:

Plan A

Plan B

Best Guess:

1-2PG

Emmanuel Mudiay

Tyus Jones

Emmanuel Mudiay

2-3 Wings

Rashad Vaughn & Stanley Johnson

Devin Booker & yet-to-be-named

Rashad Vaughn & Stanley Johnson, (+ 1)

1-2 Bigs

Trey Lyles or Cliff Alexander

Big-to-be-named

Kentucky Projected Roster (2014-15) (Best Case Roster--Spots All Spots Filled, projected lineups)

Position (#/position-group)

Starter

Bench

Emmanuel Mudiay

Jarrod Polson

Dominique Hawkins

Rashad Vaughn

James Young

Stanley Johnson

Karl Towns Jr.

Kyle Wiltjer

Dakari Johnson

Marcus Lee

Derek Willis

Kansas Projected Roster (2014-15) (Graduating Seniors/Projected NBA-Draftee with * next to them)

Position (#/position-group)

Starter

Bench

Naadir Tharpe

Conner Frankamp

Frank Mason

Rio Adams

Brannen Greene

Andrew Wiggins*

Wayne Selden

Joel Embiid

Kansas 2014 Commits

Name

Player info

Starter-Rotation-Bench-RS

ESPN #

Rivals #

~Plan--A,B,C

Kansas OFFERS--BASIC INFO

targets (offered)

Player info (Pos, Ht, Wt)

Hometown (HS)

ESPN #

Rivals #

~Plan--A, B, C

Tyus Jones

PG, 6'1", 171

Apple Valley, MN (Apple Valley)

Jahlil Okafor

C, 6'10", 275

Chicago, IL (Whitney Young)

Rashad Vaughn

SG, 6'6", 200

Minneapolis, MN (Robbinsdale Cooper)

Justise Winslow

SF, 6'5", 205

Houston, TX (Saint John's)

Emmanuel Mudiay

PG, 6'4", 190

Arlington, TX (Prime Prep Academy)

Kevon Looney

PF/F, 6'8", 200

Milwaukee, WI (Milwaukee Hamilton)

Jordan McLaughlin

PG, 6'0", 155

Rancho Cucamonga, CA (Etiwanda HS)

Stanley Johnson

SF, 6'6", 220

Fullerton, CA (Mater Dei)

Josh Perkins

PG, 6'3", 185

Denver, CO (Regis Jesuit)

Abdul-Malik Abu

PF, 6'8", 220

Boston, MA (Kimball Union Academy)

Isaiah Whitehead

SG, 6'4", 195

Brooklyn, NY (Lincoln HS)

Kelly Oubre

SF, 6'6", 190

Fort Bend, TX (Bush HS)

Isaac Haas

C, 7'1", 275

Hokes Bluff, AL (Hokes Bluff HS)

Ahmed Hill

SG, 6'5", 190

Augusta, GA (Aquinas HS)

Kansas Plan-of-Attack

Needs:

Plan A

Plan B

Best Guess:

1-2 Guards/Wings

Jones, Vaughn, Winslow, Mudiay

McLaughlin, Johnson, Perkins, Whitehead, Oubre, Hill

One of the plan B Guards

1-2 Bigs

Okafor, Looney

Abu, Haas (and Myles Turner-fast rising late-bloomer)

either Haas or Myles Turner

Kansas Projected Roster (2014-15) (Best Case Roster--Spots All Spots Filled, projected lineups)

Position (#/position-group)

Starter

Bench

Naadir Tharpe

Conner Frankamp

Frank Mason

Rio Adams

Brannen Greene

Isaiah Whitehead

Wayne Selden

Andrew White III

Perry Ellis

Jamari Traylor

Justin Wesley

Joel Embiid

Landen Lucas

Isaac Haas

Baylor Projected Roster (2014-15) (Graduating Seniors/Projected NBA-Draftee with * next to them)

Position (#/position-group)

Starter

Bench

Kenny Cherry

Allerik Freeman

Open*

Brady Heslip*

Gary Franklin*

Open*

Ishmail Wainright

***

Open*

Ricardo Gathers*

Cory Jefferson*

Isaiah Austin*

Johnathan Motley

Baylor 2014 Commits

Name

Player info

Starter-Rotation-Bench-RS

ESPN #

Rivals #

~Plan--A,B,C

Baylor OFFERS--BASIC INFO

targets (offered)

Player info (Pos, Ht, Wt)

Hometown (HS)

ESPN #

Rivals #

~Plan--A, B, C

Tyus Jones

PG, 6'1", 171

Apple Valley, MN (Apple Valley)

Jahlil Okafor

C, 6'10", 275

Chicago, IL (Whitney Young)

Rashad Vaughn

SG, 6'6", 200

Minneapolis, MN (Robbinsdale Cooper)

Justise Winslow

SF, 6'5", 205

Houston, TX (Saint John's)

Emmanuel Mudiay

PG, 6'4", 190

Arlington, TX (Prime Prep Academy)

Leron Black

PF, 6'7", 215

Memphis, TN (White Station HS)

Cliff Alexander

C/PF, 6'8", 230

Chicago, IL (Curie)

Kelly Oubre

SF, 6'6", 190

Fort Bend, TX (Bush HS)

Khadeem Lattin

C, 6'9", 190

Houston, TX (Redemption Christian Homeschool)

Myles Turner

C, 6'11", 225

Euless, TX (Trinity HS)

Baylor Plan-of-Attack

Needs:

Plan A

Plan B

Best Guess:

1-2PG

Emannuel Mudiay or Tyus Jones

Probably another Juco

Plan B (Juco guard, or yet-to-be-named)

2-3 Wings

Justise Winslow, Rashad Vaughn

Kelly Oubre (and other low tier guys)

Winslow (maybe), or Oubre

2-3 Bigs

Jahlil Okafor, Leron Black, Cliff Alexander

Khadeem Lattin, Myles Turner

Black, and 1 or both plan B bigs

Baylor Projected Roster (2014-15) (Best Case Roster--Spots All Spots Filled, projected lineups)

Position (#/position-group)

Starter

Bench

Kenny Cherry

Plan-B Guard

Open

Allerik Freeman

Plan-B Wing

Open

Ishmail Wainright

Plan-B Wing

Open

Leron Black

Johnathan Motley

Khadeem Lattin

Myles Turner

Ohio State Projected Roster (2014-15) (Graduating Seniors/Projected NBA-Draftee with * next to them)

Position (#/position-group)

Starter

Bench

Aaron Craft*

Shannon Scott

Lenzell Smith Jr*

Kameron Williams

Sam Thompson*

Marc Loving

Amedeo Della Valle

Laquinton Ross*

***

Amir Williams

Trey McDonald

Ohio State 2014 Commits

Name

Player info

Starter-Rotation-Bench-RS

ESPN #

Rivals #

~Plan--A,B,C

Jae'Sean Tate

SG, 6'5", 190

Rotation

David Bell

PF, 6'9" 200

Bench

103

Keita Bates-Diop

PF, 6'7", 190

Starter

D'Angelo Russell

SG, 6'5"190

Starter/Rotation

Ohio State OFFERS--BASIC INFO

targets (offered)

Player info (Pos, Ht, Wt)

Hometown (HS)

ESPN #

Rivals #

~Plan--A, B, C

Tyus Jones

PG, 6'1", 171

Apple Valley, MN (Apple Valley)

Jahlil Okafor

C, 6'10", 275

Chicago, IL (Whitney Young)

Cliff Alexander

C/PF, 6'8", 230

Chicago, IL (Curie)

D'Angelo Russell

SG, 6'5"190

Louisville, KY (Monteverde Academy)

Jalen Lindsey

SF, 6'7" 180

Franklin, TN (Huntington Prep)

Leron Black

PF, 6'7", 215

Memphis, TN (White Station HS)

JaQuan Lyle

PG, 6'4", 185

Evansville, IN (Bosse HS)

Paul White

SF, 6'8", 185

Chicago, IL (Whitney Young)

LJ Peak

SF, 6'5", 190

Chicago, IL (Whitney Young)--originally from SC

Ohio State Plan-of-Attack

Needs:

Plan A

Plan B

Best Guess:

1 PG

Tyus Jones or JaQuan Lyle

PG yet-to-be-named

yet-to-be-named

1-2 Wings

D'Angelo Russell and/or Lindsey

White and Peak

D'Angelo Russell and a Plan B guy

1 Bigs

Okafor, Alexander, Black

Big yet-to-be-named

either a Plan B big or no one

Ohio State Projected Roster (2014-15) (Best Case Roster--Spots All Spots Filled, projected lineups)

Position (#/position-group)

Starter

Bench

Shannon Scott

PG yet-to-be-named

Open

Jae'Sean Tate

Kameron Williams

D'Angelo Russell
(Committed)

Marc Loving

Amedeo Della Valle

Keita Bates Diop

David Bell

Amir Williams

Trey McDonald

Other specific "threats" to MSU targets:

School

Target

Threat Level/Comment

Devin Booker

High/I think he chooses between UM and MSU

Devin Booker

High/I think he chooses between UM and MSU--but UK could move on him if their top wing targets say no

Kevon Looney

High/I think he chooses between UM, MSU, Duke, Marquette, and Wisconsin

Wisconsin

Kevon Looney

High/I think he chooses between UM, MSU, Duke, Marquette, and Wisconsin

Marquette

Kevon Looney

High/I think he chooses between UM, MSU, Duke, Marquette, and Wisconsin

MSU 2014 Predictions

Recruiting-Battle Deciding Recruits/Players-on-Competitor-Schools
School	Player	Affected Recruit	Prediction/Comment
Duke	Quinn Cook	Tyus Jones	I doubt Quinn Cook goes pro after his Junior year, which means that Tyus Jones would have to share the point with Quinn Cook. This is the single biggest question to play out this coming year. Hopefully Cook takes a step, but not a huge one. Prediction: Cook stays for his senior year and Jones goes elsewhere.
Duke	Rodney Hood	Justise Winslow	Rodney Hood will be sharing the SF/wing with Jabari Parker this year and will likely stay for another year so that he can be the BMOC his junior year. If he stays as "the star" Winslow looks elsewhere (especially if Matt Jones and Semi Ojeyele show well this next year).
Duke	Semi Ojeyele	Justise Winslow	Rodney Hood will definitely be good this year, but if he is not NBA ready (as I am betting he won't be), then Ojeyele will be scrapping for minuntes and looking for a big role his sophomore year (still from the bench), playing the exact same position that Winslow would hope to have.
Duke	Marshall Plumlee	Jahlil Okafor	Marshall Plumlee looked solid for a freshman second-tier big-man. He has good athleticism and agility, great height, and great pedigree. I am guessing that he does well this coming year and looks to be a star-in-the-making moving into the 2014-15 season. This would never scare Okafor away, but I am guessing that it helps muddy the waters of the Big-Three scenario...
Duke	Amile Jefferson	Kevon Looney/Trey Lyles	Amile Jefferson is reportedly bulking up and looking to really improve off of a strong Freshman season, I think he will take a step-up, but not be ready to leave after this year. I project him as part of a powerhouse line-up of returning players for Duke moving into the 2014-15 season.
Duke	Justise Winslow	Tyus Jones/Jahlil Okafor	Justise Winslow is great friends with Jones and Okafor, and there are many analysists predicting that all three end up attending Duke together. I think it is possible, but I doubt it will happen. Winslow is from Texas and has many other possible locations that would be much, much clearer for him roster-wise (Baylor, Florida, Arizona, UCLA, and Stanford will all have either starting or sole-back-up spots with his name on them, which Duke will not have). So while I rate the possibility of this trio ending up at Duke at about 55%, I am very doubtful that this happens. If Winslow commits to Duke early, the chances get higher...he is a very important non-MSU-recruit to track. The most important.
Duke	Trey Lyles	Kevon Looney	Trey Lyles an IU-decommit is looking at 6 schools (Duke, UK, Louisville, UCLA, Butler, and Florida), I am guessing he is really choosing between the first three, and really between Duke and Louisville. He is an inside-out PF, and a heck of a player. But he would be moving into a PF rotation with Jefferson (is my guess), and that may be too rich for him to swallow. If he does commit that basically takes Duke out of the Kevon Looney running. For MSU's purposes we want him to commit to Duke, UK, Louisville, or Florida (as these are all schools targeting Looney). An early commitment here, would be a great thing for MSU.

Kentucky	Dakari Johnson	Cliff Alexander & Jahlil Okafor	Dakari Johnson is a very good center prospect, a very complete player, who will be a dominant force on the collegiate level. The problem for him, that helps MSU's recruitment of Alexander and Okafor, is that he will be planted firmly behind Willie Cauley-Stein this year. A fact that, I believe, will ensure that he stays for another year. He may go "Daniel Orton," but I doubt it because Calipari has designs on him being the starting center to Karl Towns Jr.'s starting 4 (which would be an incredible duo). Keep an eye on Dakari Johnson--if he is breaking out and taking Cauley-Stein's minutes, then that is bad for MSU. The real challenge for MSU hopes is that the NBA loves potential and therefore may draft the kid even if he only plays 10-15 minutes a game (a la Daniel Orton---I will tell you now, Johnson is better than Orton was, so it would be a reasonable bet to take...). Bottom line: MSU wants this kid coming back for a sophomore campaign (from a recruiting stand-point that is).
Kentucky	Kyle Wiltjer	Cliff Alexander & Jahlil Okafor	Kyle Wiltjer is a solid, if unspectacular player, the least athletic kid to ever play for Calipari, he will not leave after this year (or rather I would be shocked if he did); he is simply a non-functional NBA athlete, who lacks the speed, strength, or agility to guard any NBA player let alone position. He will stay and continue to eat up minutes at the PF spot--I am sure that Calipari regrets ever signing him as he has really been a clog in the UK-NBA artery. However, if he does leave then the PF rotation opens up more for Alexander (and Okafor). If he somehow (I am trying not to laugh here) becomes a stud this year, then that will spell trouble for MSU's recruitment of Alexander.
Kentucky	Marcus Lee	Cliff Alexander & Jahlil Okafor	Marcus Lee is probably Calipari's greatest luxury this year, a second PF commit who will be fighting for back-up minutes. Calipari realizes that he needs experienced players to win a championship, and Lee is basically already locked in (I would imagine) as one of his "returning sophomores next year who is ready to breakout." From the MSU perspective, this is a very good thing. The more the UK PF/C rotation can be clogged by guys like Lee and Wiltjer, the less likely it is that either Alexander or Okafor (doubtful anyways) will go to UK. Again, if Lee blows up or takes all of the back-up PF minutes then that is a problem for MSU's recruitment of Cliff Alexander.
Kentucky	Alex Poythress	Devin Booker	Poythress was a mystery all season long his freshman year, not as talented as previous tweener-forwards he failed to impact the season or score consistently. Looking ahead to this season, nothing is guaranteed for him, which is why he is potentially an "MSU-helper." While clearly a SF Poythress may struggle to dominate this year. He will be the number 4-5 option on the court if he starts (behind the Harrisons, Cauley-Stein, and Randle), and the wings will be clogged by Aaron Harrison, James Young, and Wiltjer (stealing some SF minutes I am sure). He may find himself as a junior on this team (although something tells me that he will get shoved out the door by Calipari, but we will have to see on that), which would be good news for MSU's competeing wing recruitments like Devin Booker and D'Angelo Russell. Although they play the 2 and Poythress the 3, Calipari's wing-interchanging means that there are really 4 positions on the court: PG, Wingx2, PF, C. So while Booker would not be a direct replacement he would have to consider all other wing factors in the 2014-15 rotation as competitors for minutes. If Poythress goes pro, it is not the end of the world for MSU recruitments (especially because Booker is a low-tier back-up for UK), but it is not preferable.
Kentucky	James Young	Devin Booker	James Young should do very well at UK and should get plenty of run this year, but, because he is a freshman and it is foolish to predict freshmen seasons, he may not explode. If he struggles, and looks poised to return for a second year, then that will be great news for MSU's wing recruitments that conflict with UK. I predict that he goes pro after 1 year, but if he stays that would be great for MSU. Keep an eye on him and how many minutes he gets/how productive he is this coming season, especially early on. It will be fun to watch MSU's wings defned a guy, in the second game of the season, who never really considered MSU after Calipari came calling.
Kentucky	Emmanuel Mudiay	Tyus Jones	Mudiay is the prototypical UK point recruit. Big, fast, physical, an attacker, and more of a full-throttle guy. This is the guy that Calipari would love to have, more so than Tyus Jones I believe. If Mudiay commits then you can count UK out of the Jones/Okafor race. I believe it will happen, and I would not be surprised if it happens this summer or early in the fall. There are a lot of good point guards in this class, so if Mudiay does not commit UK will get some other good players, but I would be surprised if he did not end up at UK. If he does not go to UK MSU fans should hope he goes to Baylor or Kansas.
Kentucky	Trey Lyles	Cliff Alexander & Jahlil Okafor	Trey Lyles plays the same role, from the MSU perspective, that Wiltjer, Lee, and Dakari Johnson play: he makes an Alexander/Okafor commitment to UK much less likely. In fact, if Trey Lyles commits to UK then I would bet that Alexander commits to MSU and doesn't look back. I have covered his inside-out, polished game, and I am sure that his only hesitation about UK is the presence of Karl Towns Jr. who appears to play the exact same position/game that Lyles plays. It will be interesting to see where Lyles ends up, as Louisville is, I believe, the other major player. MSU fans want Lyles at either UK or Duke, as a commitment to either would help push either Kevon Looney or Cliff Alexander closer to MSU.
Kentucky	Rashad Vaughn	Devin Booker	Rashad Vaughn is the SG in the 2014 class. Great size, great stroke from distance, and a terrific ball-handler/driver/slasher. I don't have a ton of insight into his recruitment, but I would imagine that he is one of Calipari's top priorities. To replace the Harrison brothers, and probably James Young, as the primary perimeter scorer. From the MSU perspective, a Vaughn commit would cast a pall over any further pursuit of Devin Booker, who I believe is going to choose between UM, MSU, and Florida.

Kansas	Naadir Tharpe	Tyus Jones	In my initial Kansas comments I made it clear that I believe that Tharpe, like Quinn Cook at Duke, will have a solid if not quite star-making junior season. Both point guards have returning back-court and front-court players who should be the first and second options on their respective teams. Neither player oozes NBA potential in terms of measurables or athleticism, and I firmly believe that Tharpe (and Cook) will return for the senior seasons poised for a star turn. Both head coaches would love to see these junior oint guards become stars this coming season so that they can go to the NBA to make room for Jones (in Cook's case) or for either Jones or Mudiay (in Tharpe's case). I believe neither will take that big step, and that both coaches will settle for a second-tier point guard to groom for future seasons.
Kansas	Perry Ellis & Jamari Traylor	Kevon Looney	I doubt very much that Kevon Looney is a top priority for Bill Self, but he certainly would fit well in the Kansas program. However, for that to happen either Perry Ellis, Jamari Traylor, or both, would need to declare for the NBA draft. While I think both probably have late-first, early-second potential, the somewhat surprising commitment of Andrew Wiggins, paired with the commitments of other wing and front court players guarantee that neither player will have nearly as much of a percentage of the spotlight as they might have previously been predicited to have had going into the season. My guess is that Perry Ellis will end up as the 2nd or 3rd leading scorer, while Traylor will become a hustling/physical back-up PF. Wiggins, Selden, and maybe Rio Adams, will be the big-time players on this team is my guess, and I strongly believe that both Ellis and Traylor will return for another year at the Phog, all-but guaranteeing that Kevon Looney looks elsewhere. If either blows up this year then this recruiting story may change...but I doubt that will happen.
Kansas	Joel Embiid	Jahlil Okafor	Embiid is a guy I am very keen to watch, he has all of the hallmarks of a one-and-done guy based on his measureables; however, what is yet to be seen is his ability to contribute and be productive at a high-level at the college level. I would not be surprised if he moved ahead of Tarik Black (memphis graduate transfer) into the starting line-up, but I am not sure how productive he will be in terms of point production, rebounds, and blocks. If he is solid he may be draftable based on potential alone, but Bill Self has this neat habit of getting his potentially draft-able big guys who had solid, but not spectacular, season to return for another year. That is my guess with Embiid, especially now that Tarik Black will be playing for at least half of every game. It is very hard for an NBA exec to draft a big man based on 15 min/game, even if he is an agile and athletic 7'2" tall...If Embiid dominates, then Okafor comes into play very quickly, but if, as I predict, he is only OK, then Okafor becomes a distant memory for KU, something MSU fans will be crossing their fingers for.
Kansas	Brannen Greene & Wayne Selden	Justise Winslow	Brannen Greene and Wayne Selden are guys that I think will become absolute stars on the college level. MSU fans have to hope that at least one of them becomes a HUGE star THIS year, along with Andrew Wiggins. Brannen Greene comes in as an NBA-sized 2-guard (6'6"), and Selden comes in as a small, but powerful, athletic, and dynamic 3 (6'5"). If Brannen Greene (or Selden) can usurp Rio Adams's returner-hold on the starting 2, then there is a slight possibility that one of these guys joins Andrew Wiggins in the NBA draft next summer. If that happens the Justise Winslow will definitely become a possibility. With the modern recruits' affinity for going to schools that other great players who play thier position recently attended, Winslow might consider KU for Wiggins' commitment alone. But because he might have a great shot at starting at the wing for Kansas if either of these guys blows up, KU becomes a much more enticing proposition, not to mention it is about 500 miles closer to Houston, TX than Durham, NC...MSU fans ideal situation would be Winslow ending up at either KU or UCLA (where he just visited recently), because KU is not one of the biggest factors in the Tyus Jones/Jahlil Okafor recruitments. If Selden or Greene play a major role for KU this year along with Wiggins MSU fans should be excited, from a recruiting standpoint.

Baylor	Ricardo Gathers	Leron Black & Cliff Alexander	Ricardo Gathers will be the 3rd man in the 3-headed monster that is the Baylor frontcourt this coming season. It is possible that Rico will go pro--he has the body, the athleticism, the power--but, at the same time he has NONE of the skill of an NBA big man (especially not those that he would compete against in the draft, including his own teammates). My guess is that he returns to Baylor, poised to be one of their big stars. If that happens then look for Cliff Alexander to definitely look elsewhere (if he was ever really considering Baylor). This may also push Leron Black away from Baylor, but I do not think that Black and Gathers are mutually exclusive players, especially not in Scott Drew's let's just put the best guys we can recruit on the court, give them jerseys and a ball, and hope they win games method of coaching... if Gathers dominates and looks poised to go pro, then Alexander potentially comes more into play.
Baylor	Leron Black	Cliff Alexander	Leron Black committed to Baylor last year, only to decommit. He is from Memphis, TN, and has Baylor, UCONN, Florida, Illinios, NC State, OSU, and Tennessee on his list. I have no definite insight on where he is leaning; however, it should be noted that his HS and AAU teammate, PG Chris Chiozza just committed to Florida. I think that Baylor is still in play, and that is a good thing for MSU. We want Black to go to either Baylor, Illinois, or OSU. A commitment at any of these three would take them off of Cliff's radar I would imagine.
Baylor	Ishmail Wainright	Justise Winslow	Ishmail Wainright is a SF committed to Baylor who will be a freshman this year. There is no way that he will be a one-and-done player, but at the same time, there is no way that his presence will scare away Justise Winslow. Baylor must be considered among the first or second tier of schools he is looking at, and MSU fans can only hope that Winslow commits to Baylor. Even though they would definitely have the space to take both Tyus Jones and Jahlil Okafor, I would think that it would be a major coup if those two "joined" Winslow in Waco if that is where the small forward ends up.
Baylor	Kenny Cherry	Tyus Jones	Kenny Cherry is a JuCo guard, looking to step into Pierre Jackson's vacant PG spot. I have no intel on this player whatsoever, but clearly, if he becomes a star (as Jackson did) Tyus Jones would be much less likely to join the Bears. MSU fans should be pulling for Cherry to succeed.
Baylor	Michael Dixon	(Kenny Cherry and Tyus Jones)	Michael Dixon (who got kicked out of Missouri after multiple alleged sexual misadventures) may end up transferring to Baylor. If he does he will try to get a waiver from the NCAA to play immediately this coming season, if he does not and has to sit out a year then that would cast immediate and strong doubt over the possibility of any Tyus Jones commitment. Dixon was a very good PG at Missouri, often their best player despite Phil Pressy's command on the starting spot. If Dixon lands at Baylor it would be a good thing for MSU--even if he plays immediately that merely gives Cherry a guaranteed year of spotlight his senior year, while Jones would clearly come in as the favorite in either situation, the muddier the waters are for MSU the better.
Baylor	Justise Winslow	Tyus Jones & Jahlil Okafor	As explained previously, Winslow is looking to partner with Jones and Okafor at Duke, which I view as a real possibility. But if he were to commit early to Baylor, he might put Baylor into a great position to continue functionally and hopefully recruiting the duo. MSU fans would ideally like for Winslow to end up at UCLA, followed by Kansas, then Florida, and only then Baylor. An early commitment by Winslow to Baylor (or Duke) surely puts MSU's chances with the duo in further jeopardy.
Baylor	Khadeem Lattin & Myles Turner	Jahlil Okafor	Khadeem Lattin and Myles Turner both fill in the second tier of bigs that Baylor are pursuing, and an early commitment by one or both of these two would, again, cloud the frontcourt picture, and push Jahlil Okafor and Cliff Alexander further away from a commitment. Ideally for MSU, one or both of these two sign/commit to Baylor as soon as possible.

Ohio State	Shannon Scott	Tyus Jones	Where Naadir Tharpe and Quinn Cook, in my projections, present a potential roadblock to Tyus Jones filling a team's starting PG spot as returning starters, Shannon Scott mirrors Travis Trice: career back-ups leading into their senior years, both would do admirably as a senior starter, but both would probably best serve their teams as back-up to Tyus Jones. Shannon Scott is further along in his development and I think will be very strong this coming year (I doubt MSU is gifted any more game-altering mistakes from Shannon Scott...). I think Tyus Jones would clearly come in and start over Scott, so from an MSU perspective, we should hope that the gap between the two players narrows as much as possible if MSU is going to see Tyus Jones look away from OSU.
Ohio State	Amir Williams	Jahlil Okafor	Amir Williams...this guy should be really good, but just is not. That being said, this coming season his role and his expected out-put will really increase. If he can demonstrate any real competnecy then, again the Center position becomes much less obviously Okafor's. Yes, Okafor would come in and play, but Williams would also play a ton. And his competent presence alone would probably push Okafor away from OSU. Williams is in the same position that Plumlee is for Duke, the hope for MSU fans is that both Plumlee and Williams really see their games take off this coming year.
Ohio State	Keita Bates Diop	Cliff Alexander	Keita Bates Diop, a stud PF comit for this coming year should have the power-forward position locked up for the next 3-4 years (I cannot envision him leaving for the NBA before his junior season), which intrinsically should mean that Cliff Alexander does not put OSU in his top choices. The fact that Keita Bates Diop will probably have a lot of success this coming year, looking like a star moving into his sophomore campaign will guarantee it.
Ohio State	Jae'Sean Tate & Kameron Williams	D'Angelo Russell	Jae'Sean Tate & Kameron Williams, are the two wing players committed over the next two years already, which, as far as I can tell, should, from a minutes standpoint alone, put OSU on the outside looking in for D'Angelo Russell. Russell is a guy that has recent MSU interest, and might be a great fit for MSU--he is from Louisville, KY but is not being pursued by UK or heavily by Louisville. If MSU picks up interest the main competition may be Florida, Missouri, Memphis, UNC, and Arizona. I think that MSU coaches are feeling him out as a possible secondary target if Devin Booker goes elsewhere.

MSU Prediction Time for 2014 Class

MSU Week at OTE

2013-06-03T17:27:26Z

Hey everybody, for those of you who prefer the safety of our friendly little MSU bubble here on SB Nation, I'd like to encourage you venture forth to Off Tackle Empire, SBN's Big Ten page. This week is MSU week, so there will be discussion of where the football program is, where we're going, why everyone else hates us (don't worry, all teams get this treatment and it's mostly tongue-in-cheek).

Before you go, you should know that the running MSU joke is our constant suspicion of conspiracies against us by Michigan, OSU, Jim Delany, the NCAA, and everyone else. Expect your comments to be turned against you and your avatar to be photoshopped wearing a tinfoil hat. I haven't gotten that treatment yet because I don't complain much about things being arranged against us, but I'm sure it's coming at some point this week.

Breakout Year for the Offense?

2013-06-01T04:37:35Z

In light of the reactions at MgoBlog to Phil Steele's 2013 Top-40 ratings -- which featured Michigan State at #23 and Michigan at #24, and really upset Michigan fans -- I decided to make a writeup in response to the extremely common notion that Michigan State's offense will be even more stagnant in 2013 than it was in 2012. Here it is:

As we all know, Michigan State's offense in '12-'13 was bad. It wasn't as unproductive in terms of raw yardage as most people seemed to believe; however, the offense was horrible at converting third downs, could not put the ball in the end-zone, and was highly inefficient. The lone ray of sunshine on Michigan State's offense was RB Le'Veon Bell who entered the 2013 NFL Draft. Dion Sims showed his potential as a star TE on very rare occasions, but was plagued by injuries and opted for the 2013 NFL Draft as well.

So, what was Michigan State's problem in 2012? Much maligned QB Andrew Maxwell, a Redshirt Junior, shouldered much of the blame for the offense's incompetence. And upon glancing at his statistics, you can see exactly why. Maxwell completed just 52% of his passes, threw nearly as many Interceptions as he did Touchdowns, and had a dismal QB Rating of 107.

Maxwell's wideouts also received a lot of negative attention as the crew had more drops in the Spartans' first four games than any other crew in the Big Ten had throughout the entire season. This was somewhat of a surprise considering the amount of alleged talent that Spartan bloggers and fans believed Michigan State to have. Redshirt Junior Bennie Fowler, Freshman phenom Aaron Burbridge, and highly touted Tennessee transfer DeAnthony Arnett headlined a crew of talented Spartan wideouts; however -- aside from Burbridge's breakout game against Indiana -- the unit was highly disappointing as nobody stood out as a legitimate offensive threat.

Now, while I will readily admit that Maxwell and his wideouts have a LOT of improving to do before they can even be considered "average," the biggest problem in 2013, and the most important issue going forward, was the health of Michigan State's offensive line.

Last year, Skyler Burkland, Blake Treadwell, Dan France, Chris McDonald, and Fou Fonoti were the projected starters on the offensive line, with Travis Jackson, Jack Allen, Ethan Ruhland, and Connor Kruse filling in the second string. Fonoti and Jackson endured season-ending injuries; Treadwell and Burkland missed large chunks of the season with serious injuries; France missed two games with an injury; Ruhland missed three games with an injury. The projected starting five did not play a single game together the entire season. In fact, Michigan State was often dipping into walk-on freshmen talent off the bench due to the extensive injuries. Donovan Clark became a mainstay on the offensive line -- his two consecutive botched blocks, leading to sacks, followed by a holding call, against Wisconsin resulted in the notorious Michigan State drive where MSU started the drive in the Red Zone after blocking a Wisconsin punt... and then proceeded to move so far backwards on the drive that they ended up punting the all (arguably the most embarrassing moment in Michigan State football history).

Now, the injuries to the offensive line had an impact that is sort of hard to quantify, but I'll try to do it justice. Maxwell was the second most sacked pocket-passing QB in the Big Ten behind James Vandenberg last year. Furthermore, Le'Veon Bell -- the second best draft eligible back in the nation per NFL scouts, and the nation's second leading rusher in 2012 -- had a brutally bad yard per carry average that ranked among the lowest in the nation for starters. To add to that fact, Le'Veon Bell led the nation in yards after contact. Put two and two together, and it's pretty obvious that Le'Veon Bell was consistently hit in the backfield but bulldozed his way to a net four yard gain regardless. In conclusion, Michigan State's offensive line was absolutely horrid due to injuries to multiple key players.

So, were Maxwell & Co. really as bad as most pundits believed? I think the obvious answer is, no. While they didn't do anything to help Michigan State's offense climb out of the hole they were in, the offensive line's incompetence due to injuries was the reason they were in the hole in the first place.

How could Michigan State's offense possibly be better despite the losses of Le'Veon Bell and Dion Sims, who combined for fifty-three percent of the offense's total yards last year, you might ask. Well, I'd gladly like to point you to an extremely similar [and even more daunting] situation: In the 2009 football season, Michigan State was going to have to replace Javon Ringer and Brian Hoyer, players responsible for ninety-seven percent of the offense's total yards the previous year. Most MSU critics said that Michigan State's offense was doomed; that the Spartans would have one of the worst offenses in the Big Ten.

Well, fast-forward to 2009 and, with the collaborative efforts of Freshman Larry Caper, Freshman Edwin Baker, Sophomore Glenn Winston, and Freshman Caulton Ray, none of whom rushed for over five-hundred yards individually, Michigan State improved their rushing-yard total from 1,692 yards in '08 to 1,770 yards in '09. But it doesn't stop there. Sophomore Kirk Cousins stepped in and, with a little help from Keith Nichols, improved Michigan State's passing mark to 3,502 yards, a huge improvement over Hoyer's 2,404 yards.

So, what gives? How did Michigan State's offense become that much better in 2009 after losing their only two good offensive players in 2008? The answer: Michigan State's offensive line in 2009 was both healthier and a year more developed than they were in 2008.

MSU's OL starters in 2008: C Joel Nitchman (JR); RT Jesse Miller (SR); RG Roland Martin (SR); LG Joel Foreman (FR); LT Rocco Cironi (JR)

MSU's OL starters in 2009: C Joel Nitchman (SR); RT D.J. Young (JR); RG Brendon Moss (SR); LG Joel Foreman (SO); LT Rocco Cironi (SR) -- Breakdown: three seniors, a junior, and a sophomore.

Now here are MSU's projected OL starters in 2013: C Travis Jackson (JR), returning starter before being injured; RT Fou Fonoti (SR), returning starter before being injured; RG Blake Treadwell (SR), returning starter before being injured; LT Dan France (SR), returning starter; LG Jack Allen (SO) started in place of injured Travis Jackson -- Breakdown: three seniors, a junior, and a sophomore.

The similarities here are hard to ignore. While Michigan State lost their top upperclassmen in Miller and Martin at the end of 2008, they returned three starters in 2009 in Nitchman, Cironi, and Foreman, and replaced Miller and Martin with highly talented and experienced backups in Moss and Young. While Michigan State will have lost Burkland and McDonald, they'll be replacing those two players with highly talented and experienced backups while returning three starters with loads of experience.

I think that's all you need to know to understand that Michigan State's offense is plenty capable of taking a gigantic leap forward despite last year's lack of success. Not only are they capable of doing so, but they've done so under nearly identical circumstances in the recent past.

Now you just have to respect the coaches' decisions to stick with Maxwell over the more mobile Connor Cook, just as they stuck with Kirk Cousins over the more mobile Keith Nichol in '09. Ask each running-back to contribute a little bit and allow the rushing attack to become greater than the sum of its parts, just like in '09. But the difference between '09 and '13? Michigan State's nationally elite defense.

Who's really more talented?

2013-05-31T01:37:56Z

So, I got in an argument with a buddy of mine (Michigan fan) about whether Michigan State or Michigan will have more talent in the '13-'14 college basketball season. I thought it was pretty evident that Michigan State will have the more talented roster; however, this guy made a semi-convincing argument that Michigan will have just as much "talent" [the word is extremely ambiguous and open to subjectivity, I know], if not more, than Michigan State. Thus, I decided to break each roster down in a way that would yield a much less arbitrary perspective of "talent."

Wouldn't it be most fair to take players' projections coming out of high school, their accolades in college, and speculation about their future abilities and wrap them all up into one composite ranking to determine which team is more "talented"? Well, that's what I attempted to do. Here are the results.

Michigan State's projected ten-man rotation for '14 (high school recruiting grade per ESPN; statistics per ESPN; NBA Draft Projections per DraftExpress):

1 - Keith Appling 95 grade; 13PPG, 4RPG, 3APG; #58 in 2014 NBA Draft

2 - Gary Harris 97 grade; 13PPG, 3RPG, 1APG; #14 in 2014 NBA Draft

3 - Adreian Payne 95 grade; 11PPG, 8RPG, 2BPG; #22 in 2014 NBA Draft

4 - Branden Dawson 96 grade; 9PPG, 6RPG, 2SPG, 1BPG; #32 in 2014 NBA Draft

5 - Matt Costello 92 grade; 1PPG, 1RPG; Undrafted

A - Travis Trice 90 grade; 5PPG, 2RPG, 2APG; Undrafted

B - Denzel Valentine 92 grade; 5 PPG, 4RPG, 2APG; Undrafted

C - Russell Byrd 94 grade; 1PPG, 1 RPG; Undrafted

D - Kenny Kaminski 92 grade; DNP; Undrafted

E - Alex Gauna 90 grade; 1PPG, 1RPG; Undrafted

Michigan's ten-man rotation:

1 - Walton 89 grade; FR; Undrafted

2 - Irvin 91 grade; FR; Undrafted

3 - Stauskas 92 grade; 11PPG, 3RPG, 1APG; Undrafted

4 - Robinson III 97 grade; 11PPG, 5RPG, 1APG; #8 in 2014 NBA Draft

5 - Mitch McGary 96 grade; 7PPG, 6RPG, 1APG; #11 in 2014 NBA Draft

A - Albrecht 79 grade; 2PPG, 1APG, 1RPG; Undrafted

B - LeVert 87 grade; 2PPG, 1APG, 1RPG; Undrafted

C - Horford 88 grade; 3PPG; 2RPG; Undrafted

D - Donnal 82 grade; FR; Undrafted

E - Morgan 75 grade; 5PPG, 4RPG; Undrafted

There you have it. Players on the ten-deep at Michigan State had an average recruit grade coming into college of 93.3; Michigan's had an average of 87.6. I would like to note that Walton, Irvin, and Donnal's grades will likely improve to 96, 97, and 90, respectively (based on their placement in the rankings for the class of '14), which would improve Michigan's average to 89.7.

Furthermore, Michigan State players on average have performed quite a bit better than Michigan players while in college, as evidenced by the significant statistical differences between the two groups. While the 2014 Michigan players will have combined for ~41 points and ~22 rebounds per game during the '12-'13 season, the 2014 Michigan State players will have combined for ~59 points ~30 rebounds per game during the '12-'13 season. And while three of the players on Michigan's roster did not play due to being freshmen in '14, which hurts their numbers, and just one of the players on Michigan State's roster did not play (Kaminski, RS), the 31.5 percent difference in the numbers is still larger than the 20.0 percent difference in players who were active in '12-'13.

And lastly, four Michigan State players are expected to be selected in the NBA Draft per Draft Express compared to two from Michigan. Now, this is where it gets a little bit tricky. A lot of places don't expect Appling to get drafted, which would knock Michigan State down to three total players expected to be drafted. And some places expect Stauskas to get drafted in the second round, which would also put Michigan at three. Further, he argued that Walton and Irvin would likely be drafted in the future, which would give Michigan a five-to-three advantage.

However, my belief is that it is fallacious to automatically assume that a player's talent in 2014 is reflected by his future draft projection. For example, Erick Green (SR, Virginia Tech -- 25.0 PPG) was more talented in '12-'13 than Archie Goodwin (FR, Kentucky -- 14.0 PPG); however, Goodwin is projected to go earlier in the Draft than Green because of the ability he has the potential to possess a couple years down the road [see: You're comparing a senior to a freshman].

Consequently, I believe it is fair to say that Michigan State has three players who are projected to go in the '14 NBA Draft [Payne, Harris, and Dawson] compared to Michigan's two [McGary, Robinson]; therefore, Michigan State has more NBA talent in '13-'14. It is, fair for Michigan fans to argue that Michigan has more players that will end up being taken in the NBA Draft someday; however, being a more intriguing prospect three or four years down the road does NOT make a player more talented in the current timeframe.

To conclude, as of the '13-'14 college basketball season, Michigan State players were more highly touted than Michigan players at the former level, have performed statistically and significantly better than Michigan players at the current level, and are expected to be better than Michigan players at the next level.

I'm also interested in using this same method of analysis for each team in the Big Ten to predict the Big Ten standings in '13-'14. While it might not be very accurate in predicting the standings, at the very least it could provide some sort of insight as to how much of an association there is between speculative "talent" and team success. I'll gladly do each team in the Big Ten if anybody's interested in seeing the comparisons. I'm also pretty weak mathematically and I'm sure there are countless holes in my logic, but I think this will serve its purpose in providing a tangible way of saying that Michigan State is, in fact, the most talented team in the Big Ten. Or at least better than, "Michigan State is way more talented because I said so."

Michigan State's projected ten-man rotation for '14 (high school recruiting grade per ESPN; statistics per ESPN; NBA Draft Projections per DraftExpress):

1 - Keith Appling 95 grade; 13PPG, 4RPG, 3APG; #58 in 2014 NBA Draft

2 - Gary Harris 97 grade; 13PPG, 3RPG, 1APG; #14 in 2014 NBA Draft

3 - Adreian Payne 95 grade; 11PPG, 8RPG, 2BPG; #22 in 2014 NBA Draft

4 - Branden Dawson 96 grade; 9PPG, 6RPG, 2SPG, 1BPG; #32 in 2014 NBA Draft

5 - Matt Costello 92 grade; 1PPG, 1RPG; Undrafted

A - Travis Trice 90 grade; 5PPG, 2RPG, 2APG; Undrafted

B - Denzel Valentine 92 grade; 5 PPG, 4RPG, 2APG; Undrafted

C - Russell Byrd 94 grade; 1PPG, 1 RPG; Undrafted

D - Kenny Kaminski 92 grade; DNP; Undrafted

E - Alex Gauna 90 grade; 1PPG, 1RPG; Undrafted

Michigan's ten-man rotation:

1 - Walton 89 grade; FR; Undrafted

2 - Irvin 91 grade; FR; Undrafted

3 - Stauskas 92 grade; 11PPG, 3RPG, 1APG; Undrafted

4 - Robinson III 97 grade; 11PPG, 5RPG, 1APG; #8 in 2014 NBA Draft

5 - Mitch McGary 96 grade; 7PPG, 6RPG, 1APG; #11 in 2014 NBA Draft

A - Albrecht 79 grade; 2PPG, 1APG, 1RPG; Undrafted

B - LeVert 87 grade; 2PPG, 1APG, 1RPG; Undrafted

C - Horford 88 grade; 3PPG; 2RPG; Undrafted

D - Donnal 82 grade; FR; Undrafted

E - Morgan 75 grade; 5PPG, 4RPG; Undrafted

Who should round out the starting 5?

2013-05-29T22:04:39Z

I'm not a fan of Kentucky or Indiana, but I also don't hate either school, mainly because their basketball teams are supported by blogs that write about basketball all year. Me being a Spartan Basketball enthusiast 24/7/365, I respect that. Plus I read a lot of the stuff on their blogs during the long, boring wait for Midnight Madness. Here I've decided to borrow an idea from one of their articles, projecting the 2013-2014 starting 5.

I'll go out on a limb and project that the starting 5 will include Gary Harris, Adreian Payne and Keith Appling. But who should fill the other 2 spots? The candidates will most likely be:

The most likely scenario probably includes Branden Dawson retaining his spot in the lineup with Matt Costello stepping in too. But will one or both of them be enough of a scoring threat to complement the Big 3? One of the flaws of the 2013 Spartans was having Dawson and Nix in the same lineup. Two players who needed to be next to the basket in order to score. That ruins spacing and those 2 should've never been on the court together even if it was the best defensive pairing.

If we take the 2013 versions of Dawson and Costello and put them in the lineup together, I'm afraid we'd have the same problem. Dawson was clearly a limited player in his attempt to overcome his knee injury and Costello looked disturbingly overwhelmed whenever attempting to score. Those guys would not improve the lineup at all unless the Big 3 average 60 points and all Dawson and Costello would have to do is defend and rebound.

My hope is that we will have something better than the 2013 versions of each player. Costello's high school and AAU background suggested he was a guy with significantly more advanced offensive skills than we saw last season. Perhaps an offseason of working on his game with a year of experience under his belt will help him fully adapt to the college game and make a mini "leap".

As for Dawson, the "leap" train is scheduled to arrive for him any second now. Spending a summer rehabbing is obviously detrimental to basketball skill development. He should now have the same opportunity that guys like Rodney Williams and Sam Thompson had, a summer to improve ball handling and shooting to go with insane hops and dunking ability. Thompson turned himself into a decent 3 point threat last season. Decent 3 point shooting may not be in Dawson's future but if he can add a mid range shot to his game he'd do himself and his team a huge favor.

But what if the hope doesn't pan out and neither player is ready to make a shot outside the paint. Would it make sense to start a player like Alex Gauna instead of Costello? Gauna is probably going to blow a few defensive assignments and lose several rebounding battles but he can shoot. This may sound crazy but I thought Gauna was seriously under utilized last season. The guy does one thing well, hit mid range jumpers, yet he never seemed to be involved in any plays when he was on the court. Gauna could be a guy that opens up the floor by pulling a defender away from the rim creating driving lanes for Harris, Dawson or Appling. This will be his 4th year in the program, he's a grownup now. Maybe he's ready to be a full time contributor.

If not Guana how about Trice or Valentine? Run, run, run. Coach Izzo wants to run, so he often says. Inserting one of these guys into the starting lineup can help with that. Both guys should do well starting the break and either one of them would be the best passer in the lineup. Potential problems with this idea, whoever doesn't start would inherit all of the backup PG minutes, Dawson has to play the 4, Payne has to play center(something Coach Izzo doesn't want for some strange reason). Although I'm thinking that the most effective lineups will probably have Payne at center.

It's probably a safe bet that Dawson will continue to start, who should join him: Costello, Gauna, Valentine, Trice, someone else?

I'll go out on a limb and project that the starting 5 will include Gary Harris, Adreian Payne and Keith Appling. But who should fill the other 2 spots? The candidates will most likely be:

It's probably a safe bet that Dawson will continue to start, who should join him: Costello, Gauna, Valentine, Trice, someone else?

In light of Theo Pinson's commitment to UNC; my best guess as to MSU BBall recruiting landscape for 2014

2013-05-22T17:47:43Z

http://collegebasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/05/22/five-star-nc-native-theo-pinson-commits-to-north-carolina/

This link has Theo Pinson committing to UNC.

I would say that this comes as a pleasant surprise for MSU fans, and can only be seen as a good thing.

Pinson, Tyus Jones, and Jahlil Okafor had, at one point, been discussed/discussed themselves joining forces and joining the same school---the obvious dynamic being Jones at point, Pinson on the wing, and Okafor in the paint.

The logical landing spot for this theoretical trio would have been Duke.

Pinson's finalists were: UNC, Duke, Indiana (another reason this is a pleasant surprise!), Georgetown, and Louisville.

UNC is not a logical landing spot for the Big-2 (Tyus Okafor): they already have borderline 5-star/top-25 PG Joel Berry committed, and they also have about 5 big-men who will be around for their freshman years (including Kennedy Meeks a guy who will be a freshman this year, who is, to put it simply, a lane clogging big man who is totally incompatible with Jahlil Okafor).

In short, although UNC was no longer on Tyus Jones's list of finalists, we can cross off one of the many open possibilities as to how their recruitment(s) may end up: Jahlil Okafor will also not be going to UNC. Write it in pen.

So, to return to the Duke recruiting situation (and this may end up being a fools hope/projection, but project I will!):

Part of the reason Pinson did not go to Duke must surely have been the presence of the following guys, who will either definitely or likely be on the roster when the 2014 class signs/plays their freshman year:

Alex Murphy (6-8 SF), Amile Jefferson (6-8 F--I am betting he stays after this year), Matt Jones (6-4 SG), Semi Ojeleye (6-6 SF), and now recently committed Grayson Allen (6-4 SG)...this is all assuming that Jabari Parker stays healthy (which I hope he does---such a great kid and athlete and ball-player, he will be so much fun to watch if he is fit!) and goes 1-and-done, I am also guessing that Rasheed Soulaimon goes after next year, but that is conjecture...

I am also very confident that Quinn Cook stays for his senior year so that he can be the star on the team---this is THE question mark when looking at Duke...if you want Tyus Jones to not go to Duke, watch Cook closely this summer, fall, winter, and next spring. Something tells me that he will be very good this year, but that he will want to stay to win it all as a senior (there is no way in hell that next year's Duke team will win it all...)...we will see...

I am increasingly dubious as to Quinn Cook leaving, and everything hinges on him, and on the development/track that Marshall Plumlee goes on...

If Plumlee is still around when Tyus Okafor has to make their decision, then I think Duke will have selected themselves out of the running:

Marshall Plumlee is much more of a low-post guy even that Mason Plumlee---he doesn't even have the ball-handling/body/mentality of a face-up guy, something he may develop, but I am dubious of. This next year, I am guessing that Plumlee takes a step forward but not a big enough one that he leaves. That would certainly put a question mark into the equation of whether or not Okafor would be splitting time with Plumlee, and any other big they may have on scene. We will see, but I am guessing/betting that both Cook and Plumlee step into the spotlight, and encourage Tyus Okafor to look elsewhere.

The questions for us in this equation are: Cliff Alexander---can we get him on board; and Tyler Ulis---does he commit really early and scare off Tyus Jones?

I will return to this in a more comprehensive way when I have more time (work = busy); but I think we are very much in a good spot in terms of the roster we would have on board---neither Costello, nor Schilling, nor any other big would scare Okafor---but a peaking Marshall Plumlee has the pedigree and potential acumen to definitely do so...

http://collegebasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/05/22/five-star-nc-native-theo-pinson-commits-to-north-carolina/

This link has Theo Pinson committing to UNC.

Pinson's finalists were: UNC, Duke, Indiana (another reason this is a pleasant surprise!), Georgetown, and Louisville.

So, to return to the Duke recruiting situation (and this may end up being a fools hope/projection, but project I will!):

I am increasingly dubious as to Quinn Cook leaving, and everything hinges on him, and on the development/track that Marshall Plumlee goes on...

If Plumlee is still around when Tyus Okafor has to make their decision, then I think Duke will have selected themselves out of the running:

The questions for us in this equation are: Cliff Alexander---can we get him on board; and Tyler Ulis---does he commit really early and scare off Tyus Jones?

Update from Chicago

2013-05-16T02:24:37Z

(Bump: Sorry I missed this a few days ago. - Chris)

So I was just at the Broad College Alumni event in Chicago (even though I'm a JMC alum). Hollis was already in town for the B1G meetings so he came over, mingled with us for a few hours, and spoke & took questions for an hour from the group. Here are some highlights from what I can remember, I wasn't taking notes:

The Stadium:

Talked about the overall updates going on right now and visions for the near future. Basically, it was a lot of what we're asking for here:

Overhaul & upgrade the concourses basically everywhere. This includes adding more bathrooms (especially more ladies rooms), adding & upgrading concessions, and what sounds like some widening. We earn a very low take from concessions, especially for the Big Ten. He compared us to either Northern Iowa or Iowa State and noted that Wisconsin earns several times as much.
Expand the footprint of the stadium. Basically, clear out everything that's in between the concrete pillars, build a nice looking fence or gate that surrounds the stadium from the outside, and have the entry points be there. He kept referring to the area it creates as a "comfort zone" or something. He said there can be concessions and restrooms in that area and described it like a moat.
The gas station is going but I think we already knew that.
Also that we already knew, major upgrades to the locker room and building new officials locker room and a media center. He talked about how woefully outdated our facilities are. Apparently we're one of very few teams to not have an official's dressing room, they change in a trailer outside of the stadium.
There will be a big recruiting center that will be used by all sports.
Also, Munn is getting some serious work done, first removing the freon system, then upgrading the whole thing. It sounds like it will look better from the outside & be way improved on the inside.
Didn't mention anything about lights, the a/v system, suites, or alcohol.

Money:

The dept. breaks even, taking in & spending around $85mm. But, all the sports besides basketball & football lose money, between tens of thousands and close to $4mm per sport.
We make a tiny amount of money from concessions. Also we make a much lower cut that other, more high profile, B1G schools on merchandise. So our athletic budget is significantly smaller than M's, gave their number as $150mm though they have 27 varsity sports to our 25.
Talked about strategically investing money in the non-revenue sports, gave Tennis as an example. He talked about how we used a small amount of money (<$50k) to hire an additional coach. This season, the 100th in MSU tennis history, we made the NCAA Tournament for the first time (though it's only been around since 1972). Also mentioned investments that resulted in new baseball, softball & two soccer fields.
The scales have finally tipped to where the B1G schools made more from TV last season than tickets. He said it isn't good that the decisions are now being made by & with TV execs in mind, not fans. Talked about a balance there.
He was asked about student athletes getting paid, he is not in favor of it, mentioned that he's an educator and would step down if that day comes.

The B1G:

Said he's very in favor of MSU in the B1G East, the teams in it are the teams Duffy & John Hannah wanted to play so those are the teams he wants to play. He was very upset reading fan bellyaching about wanting to be in the West. Said he wants us to be the best and to beat the best and doesn't want the easy way to anything.
Said the B1G East is also better, strategically, for MSU. Mentioned that there are huge alumni bases in DC & NYC that want MSU games there, and he talked about making those towns another Evanston when MSU goes there & the stadium is 50/50 or even 60/40 in our favor. Said there just isn't a fanbase for MSU in places like Lincoln or Iowa City.
Not sure what's going to happen in basketball but it seemed like he was in favor of divisions. Talked about how too many single plays will make the regular season meaningless. By my math, an 18 game season in a 14 team league will be 8 single plays & 5 double plays.
Thinks we'll stay at 14 for now, said that expanding was a reaction to ND to the ACC. Doesn't anticipate expanding again in the near term unless it's "defensive."
It sounds like he likes to troll Dave Brandon. Said they're not friends, but rather like brothers that like to beat each other up. Mentioned he did something to Brandon recently, someone asked if it had something to do with "chicken," he just chuckled & said it was much funnier.

If I can remember anything more I'll put it up, but it was a pretty cool event and he was really candid. Derrick Nix was there for the first half, and after he left Hollis couldn't stop talking about how great a kid he is.

(Bump: Sorry I missed this a few days ago. - Chris)

Talked about the overall updates going on right now and visions for the near future. Basically, it was a lot of what we're asking for here:

Overhaul & upgrade the concourses basically everywhere. This includes adding more bathrooms (especially more ladies rooms), adding & upgrading concessions, and what sounds like some widening. We earn a very low take from concessions, especially for the Big Ten. He compared us to either Northern Iowa or Iowa State and noted that Wisconsin earns several times as much.
Expand the footprint of the stadium. Basically, clear out everything that's in between the concrete pillars, build a nice looking fence or gate that surrounds the stadium from the outside, and have the entry points be there. He kept referring to the area it creates as a "comfort zone" or something. He said there can be concessions and restrooms in that area and described it like a moat.
The gas station is going but I think we already knew that.
Also that we already knew, major upgrades to the locker room and building new officials locker room and a media center. He talked about how woefully outdated our facilities are. Apparently we're one of very few teams to not have an official's dressing room, they change in a trailer outside of the stadium.
There will be a big recruiting center that will be used by all sports.
Also, Munn is getting some serious work done, first removing the freon system, then upgrading the whole thing. It sounds like it will look better from the outside & be way improved on the inside.
Didn't mention anything about lights, the a/v system, suites, or alcohol.

Money:

The dept. breaks even, taking in & spending around $85mm. But, all the sports besides basketball & football lose money, between tens of thousands and close to $4mm per sport.
We make a tiny amount of money from concessions. Also we make a much lower cut that other, more high profile, B1G schools on merchandise. So our athletic budget is significantly smaller than M's, gave their number as $150mm though they have 27 varsity sports to our 25.
Talked about strategically investing money in the non-revenue sports, gave Tennis as an example. He talked about how we used a small amount of money (<$50k) to hire an additional coach. This season, the 100th in MSU tennis history, we made the NCAA Tournament for the first time (though it's only been around since 1972). Also mentioned investments that resulted in new baseball, softball & two soccer fields.
The scales have finally tipped to where the B1G schools made more from TV last season than tickets. He said it isn't good that the decisions are now being made by & with TV execs in mind, not fans. Talked about a balance there.
He was asked about student athletes getting paid, he is not in favor of it, mentioned that he's an educator and would step down if that day comes.

The B1G:

Said he's very in favor of MSU in the B1G East, the teams in it are the teams Duffy & John Hannah wanted to play so those are the teams he wants to play. He was very upset reading fan bellyaching about wanting to be in the West. Said he wants us to be the best and to beat the best and doesn't want the easy way to anything.
Said the B1G East is also better, strategically, for MSU. Mentioned that there are huge alumni bases in DC & NYC that want MSU games there, and he talked about making those towns another Evanston when MSU goes there & the stadium is 50/50 or even 60/40 in our favor. Said there just isn't a fanbase for MSU in places like Lincoln or Iowa City.
Not sure what's going to happen in basketball but it seemed like he was in favor of divisions. Talked about how too many single plays will make the regular season meaningless. By my math, an 18 game season in a 14 team league will be 8 single plays & 5 double plays.
Thinks we'll stay at 14 for now, said that expanding was a reaction to ND to the ACC. Doesn't anticipate expanding again in the near term unless it's "defensive."
It sounds like he likes to troll Dave Brandon. Said they're not friends, but rather like brothers that like to beat each other up. Mentioned he did something to Brandon recently, someone asked if it had something to do with "chicken," he just chuckled & said it was much funnier.

Wiggins to Kansas = good news for MSU

2013-05-14T20:18:29Z

News has broken that likely one-and-done Andrew Wiggins has chosen Kansas over Kentucky, North Carolina, and Florida State. Setting aside FSU (his parents' alma mater), I see this as a positive development for MSU in a few ways:

1. Of Kansas, Kentucky, and North Carolina, Kansas was thought to have the lowest chance of competing for a national title in 2013-2014. They will certainly be a good team, especially with this addition, but Wiggins to either Kentucky or North Carolina might have created a more formidable NCAA tournament opponent.

2. Kentucky and North Carolina are on MSU's schedule, whereas I don't know of a potential MSU-Kansas showdown happening before late March. Sure, it might have been fun to watch MSU play against, and potentially beat, Wiggins' team, but these early-season contests tend to be rough enough on the Spartans regardless.

3. For whatever reason, MSU seems to compete for recruits with Kansas a bit less frequently than with Kentucky or UNC. I don't mind the latter two being denied some recruiting momentum going into 2014. Small stuff, maybe, but it can pass for good recruiting news until the 2014 dominoes start to fall.

Draymond making an "impact"

2013-05-01T15:19:39Z

This is my first fan post so I'll make it short. Here's a link to an article that made me smile.

The Denver Nuggets v. Golden State Warriors NBA playoff series is getting chippy and our boy Draymond Green is getting some recognition for his toughness.

In case you don't want to read the article here is George Karl's quote...
"Did Draymond Green play football or basketball at Michigan State?"

In response, Draymond played both football and basketball at MSU Mr. Karl, sort of. See Spring Football Game appearance two years ago.

This is my first fan post so I'll make it short. Here's a link to an article that made me smile. The Denver Nuggets v. Golden State Warriors NBA playoff series is getting chippy and our boy Draymond Green is getting some recognition for his toughness. In case you don't want to read the article here is George Karl's quote... "Did Draymond Green play football or basketball at Michigan State?" In response, Draymond played both football and basketball at MSU Mr. Karl, sort of. See Spring Football Game appearance two years ago.

Backcourt depth

2013-04-26T13:49:27Z

Any rumblings on whether or not Izzo has any intention of looking at Allerick Freeman, the UCLA recruit just released from his letter of intent? He is a Findlay Prep kid who perhaps Schilling could pull to East Lansing? Also, for those not aware of the name check out Seventh Woods from Hammond in Columbia, SC - nasty kid and only 14! Someone to be on the green and white radar as he will continue to grow and develop!

Our Cold War

2013-04-09T20:09:28Z

(Ed: Bump -- Chris)

The Cold War: America and the Soviet Union in a military arms race with each other. The same could be said for the modern day landscape of college athletics. Schools are investing more and more money into their facilities to give their teams an edge over their competition. Michigan and Michigan State are no exception.

Since and Michigan State has become relevant in football and Michigan in basketball (sigh) the two schools have important matchups in both football and basketball. They have to compete with each other on a year to year basis for recruits. Michigan State adds a sweet practice facility onto the Breslin Center and Michigan builds a nicer one and additionally renovates the Crisler Center. Michigan builds a giant high definition scoreboard into one end zone in the Big House, State builds a bigger scoreboard…and attaches two more on the opposite side. It’s an arms race.

For us to keep this up, we need money to pay for all this, and so does Michigan. Let’s see how we can continue to compete with the instate rivals. For private endowments in 2011 here’s how we stacked up with Michigan.

Yikes that’s not good. Michigan gets more than five times the donations than Michigan State does. Some of these donations go towards the athletic department. The athletic department then invests the money into their teams: here are both the school’s athletic expenses from 2008 to 2012.

Since both Universities are state funded institutions they release their financial statements every year. According to their statements both schools spent similar amount of money on athletics in 2008 through 2010. Then Michigan skyrockets off the chart and leaves Michigan State behind. As far as facility expenses go:

These expenses include overhead, construction, and debt that goes into their athletic facilities. As we can see the facilities expenses graph looks a lot like the overall athletic expenses graph. Michigan’s has spent a lot more in the past few years (probably due to the Crisler center renovations) and they will probably continue to spend more due to their pledge to donate 250 million to non-revenue sports.

Michigan gets the most private endowments out of any public university. They can spend more than us it’s just reality. But we have to keep spending money on our facilities to keep up. At the Michigan vs. Michigan State basketball game in Ann Arbor this year I couldn’t help but notice they kept playing this long advertisement on the jumbotron that targeted alumni to donate to the university. I couldn’t help but think that MSU didn’t do that this year. If there’s one thing Michigan knows how to do its raise money. We should have a similar advertisement run during basketball games. We used to run that “Championships through Memberships” campaign during basketball games. Dantonio would come on the jumbotron and say how important it was that State has enough money to win football games. Maybe the 7-6 season cancelled the campaign but I thought the campaign was a gold mine. It really gave fans the feeling they are important to the program which they are. Regardless of what campaign we run we should try to appeal to alumni to donate to the Spartan fund during sporting events, it can’t hurt.

State can’t outspend Michigan. But we don’t have to. Nothing’s more fun than beating the rich spoiled kid down the block in any kind of sport. Michigan State has made some good investments in their athletic programs and even though it’s not as Michigan has its still enough to sustain success on the field and keep this in state rivalry even sided.

(Ed: Bump -- Chris)