More photos » Darron Cummings - AP

Raise your hand if you want to play a few more games.

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I have to confess that I'm struggling with what to say about this team going into NCAA Tournament action.  I think Friday's night loss has left an analytical fog hanging over me.  But that was just one game--and one game that, despite the major issues with the playing rotation, Michigan State would have won with just a 60% free throw shooting performance.

Bigger picture, it still doesn't feel like MSU has put together many (if any) games this season in which it's played 40 minutes of high-quality basketball.  Still, this season hasn't exactly been a complete disappointment, with another Big Ten championship banner now hanging from the Breslin Center rafters.  This, despite the injury and other personnel issues that have cropped over the course of the season.

(Notice how every sentence in that paragraph has a direction-shifting word like "still" in it?  I think that's a clear symptom of blogger ambivalence.)

Since the beginning of Big Ten play, MSU has a record of 14-2 in games in which the full contingent of major contributors has been available and (mostly) healthy.  (Exclusions: Loss at Illinois without Lucas, loss to Purdue with a gimpy Lucas, loss to Minnesota in BTT without Allen.)

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Other contests:

• The BTT Bracket contest ended in a tie between KarkoviceIsHawt, spartyboy40, and SpartanDan.  All three entrants had Ohio State winning the tournament, Illinois and Purdue in the semifinals, and 2 of the 3 first-day winners correct.  And they were each one possession off on the tie-breaker.  That means we go to a random draw for the prize.  The accounting firm of My Five-Year Old Son Rolling a Die conducted the draw.  The winner of one copy of When March Went Mad is [drumroll] spartyboy40.  Send me me your name and mailing address, sir (or madam), and we'll get the book right out to you.  Kudos to all three first-place finishers.
  
• Pete's more traditional NCAA Tournament contest is here.  (He's so old-fashioned.  But his version does have automated scoring.)

The Smarter-than-Average Contest

Any schmuck can fill out a bracket by picking the higher seed in almost every game.  This blog’s readers deserve a more intellectually-demanding competition.  Hence the contest I've run the last three years (and by "run," I mean "post the rules for and hope that SpartanDan graciously takes care of actually keeping tracks of the scores again").

Here are the rules (same as last year):

• Each entrant picks a list of 16 teams from the 65-team NCAA bracket.
• For each game a team on your list wins, you receive points equal to the team’s seed.  Example: If you pick an 8 seed and they win 2 games before losing in the third round, you get 16 points.  This creates an incentive to look for lower-seeded teams likely to pull upsets.
• There are bonuses of (a) 1 point for making the Final Four, (b) 3 points for making the championship game, and (c) 5 points for winning the national championship.  So picking a 1 seed who wins the national championship would be worth 15 points (6 points for their 6 wins plus 9 points for the three bonuses).  This keeps the top seeds in play as potential picks.

Entries must be posted in the comments section of this blog post by noon on Thursday.  Just list your 16 teams in any order.  The tie-breaker is the number of possessions in the championship game (as determined by StatSheet).

Here’s the official bracket.  Get those mental gears turning.  Winner gets a book (the same one).

[Expanding on the MSU section of my previous post.]

1. I just looked at the box score of the MSU-Minnesota game for the first time.  You know what?  The Mike Kebler thing nearly worked.  From the time Kebler entered the game with 9:22 left in the second half through the end of regulation, MSU outscored Minnesota 16-9 over 12-13 possessions.  And 4 of those 9 Gopher points came on the first two possessions Kebler was in for, on two offensive put backs by big men.  As has been his custom, Kebler played very good defense, helping to force Minnesota into some tough looks down the stretch and allowing Morgan, Lucas, and Green to work their magic on the other end.  (A Korie Lucious 3-pointer helped, too.)

I do wonder about not putting in a player who's more of an offensive threat (even Delvon Roe for offensive rebounding) on that final offensive play in regulation, though.  I haven't seen the replay, but my sense watching it live was that Kebler's man hedged off him to collapse on the play in the lane with Lucas coming around the screen.

2. Please don't interpret anything I've said as a knock on Mike Kebler.  (The photo caption on the last post was too snarky in retrospect.)  The fact that Tom Izzo would play Kebler over six different players on the bench who came into the program on scholarship (and weren't wearing a necktie) speaks volumes of what the he's proved about himself in a very short period of time.

It's easy to point out the negatives from Kebler's performance.  But I don't blame for him for missing the two free throws.  How many shots do you think he's taken in his life with that much adrenaline rushing through his body?  (Both misses were too long, as I recall.)  And stepping on the out-of-bounds line after grabbing that defensive rebound was a function of how hard he had to work to pull down the rebound in the first place.

The problem with the Michigan State basketball team on Friday night was definitely not Mike Kebler.  It was the guys sitting on the bench instead of Kebler.

Alright, on to the Big Dance.  Had to get the game recapping compulsion out of the way.

P.S.  The other problem was, of course, a bunch of missed free throws.  Based on this four-factors graph, you'd sure think the team with the green bars was the winner.

OK, I'm done now.  Really.

More photos » Michael Conroy - AP

Mismatch. And not to our advantage.

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So, outside of the 2+ hours of torturous MSU fandom Friday night, my 4-day/3-night stay in Indianapolis was lovely.  Highlights:

• My 2-year old daughter hanging out with the MSU Dance Team at the Thursday night pep rally and winning a Sparty doll.
• The consuming of food (and spirits) at Cafe Patachou, The Ram Restaurant, Buca Di Beppo, and the Rock Bottom Brewery.
• An entertaining and enlightening Sunday morning at the Indianapolis Children's Museum.
• Five consecutive competitive basketball games from Friday at noon through Saturday at 4:00.
• A rare opportunity to see the consensus national player of the year play on three consecutive days.

(I even do my travelogues in bullet-point fashion.)

And, thanks to LVS and Pete, I got to enjoy the entire long weekend without having to type any more than 140 characters at a time.  I could get used to having just-a-fan-of-the-blog status.

But it's back to the blogging grind now.  To get back in the groove, I'll start with a recap of the Big Ten Tournament.  And by "recap," I mean "a series of random thoughts on Big Ten teams, mostly regurgitated from my Twitter feed."

Random thoughts on the eight teams I saw play over the weekend are after the jump, neatly sorted by ascending order of BTT finish.

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I bet those guys voted for the Gadsden Purchase.

Let's do this bullet-style:

• 22-11 (11-5).  WAC tournament champions; 2nd place in the regular season, behind Utah State.  Ranked 115 nationally by KenPom.
• 3-5 against other NCAA Tournament teams: 11/13 lost to St. Mary's, 100-68; 11/17 lost to New Mexico, 97-87; 12/1 lost to UTEP, 79-58; 12/5 lost to New Mexico, 75-58; 12/13 beat UTEP, 87-80; 1/2 beat Utah St., 55-52; 3/6 lost to Utah St., 81-63; 3/13 beat Utah St., 69-63.  Also was manhandled by a terrible UCLA team, 100-68.
• Four factors analysis: 53.4 eFG (26th nationally), 17.9 TO% (48th), 30.4 OR% (254th), 38.0 FTA/FGA (160th).
• They're good offensively (110.5 efficiency, 46th).  They do this by shooting a ton of 3s (38.7 3PA/FGA, 49th highest), and they shoot them well -- 37.4%; they're also above-average from the line (70.1 FT%, 138th).  They also like to play fast, as their adjusted tempo, 71.8, is 23rd nationally.
  
• Happily, they're, uh, not so good on defense (104.1 efficiency, 222nd). They: 1) allow opposing teams a 51.3% eFG, on average (277th), 2) don't force many turnovers (18.7%, 267th), and 3) allow opponents to rebound a ton of their misses (34.6%, 261st).
• They rely heavily on their starters (22.9% bench minutes, 321st), and 3 of their starters average more than 14 points per game: guard Jahmar Young (20.5 ppg, 54.1% eFG), guard Jonathan Gibson (17.5 ppg, 56.8% eFG), and forward Troy Gillenwater (14.4 ppg, 56.3% eFG).  The other starters are forward Wendell McKines (10.8 ppg, 52.4% eFG) and center Hamidu Rahman (10.4 ppg, 56.3 eFG).
• New Mexico State last appeared in the tournament in 2007, when they were a 13 seed and were bounced in the first round by Texas, 79-67.

The rebounding numbers should make you smile, as State should have a major, major, major advantage on the boards.  Of course, a team that shoots as many threes as the Aggies do -- and shoots them well, as they also do -- is always dangerous.  (The Aggies' offensive statistical profile surely makes John Beilein swoon.)

Still, the consensus seems to be that MSU might have dodged a bullet with this matchup, and that UTEP and Cornell are empirically better teams.  (Of course, that's made up for by the Midwest bracket placement; it's the most difficult region by a country mile.)  KenPom's computer doesn't see this as a close game at all, and predicts an 83-71 Spartan victory.  And, if you need more reasons for optimism, let's go to the man himself:

kenpomeroy: Congrats to Michigan State for a relative walkover in a 5/12 game.

. . . and TAFKATBTW:

JohnGasaway: Huge disparity in 5-seed situations. Michigan St. won the lottery. Temple's underseeded (duh). Butler and TX A&M have *very* tough games.

It's March again.  Here we go.

More photos » Eric Gay - AP

It's the most wonderful time . . . of the year.

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[UPDATE: MSU is a 5 seed in the Midwest, playing New Mexico State in Spokane on Friday.  If we can get through the first round, we're probably looking at Maryland in the 2nd round, and a potential Sweet Sixteen rematch with Kansas in the Sweet Sixteen.  Ohio State is the #2 seed in the Midwest, playing the opening rounds in Milwaukee.

My immediate reaction is that this is an immensely unfavorable draw for MSU.  Seems like the committee put a lot of emphasis on the conference tournament.  Truly, we made our own bad luck here.  End update.]

First, congratulations to Ohio State, who put together a national championship-quality performance in throttling Minnesota, 90-61.  Whoever ends up in the same region as Ohio State, beware: it's cliche, but the Buckeyes are peaking at the right time and playing as well as any team in the country.

The bracket selection gets underway in approximately 10 minutes, on CBS.  Your Spartans figure to be a 4 or 5 seed (3 if we're massively lucky).  The key here would seem to be avoiding the dreaded 5-12 matchup.  A quick sampling of expert bracket predictions:

• SBN's own Blogging the Bracket has MSU as the 5 seed in the South region.  We'd play Cornell (27-4, Ivy League champs) in New Orleans.
• Joe Lunardi's Bracketology has MSU as the Midwest 5 seed, playing Wake Forest (19-10) in San Jose.
  
• Jerry Palm also has MSU in the Midwest region, but as the 4 seed, playing Murray State (30-4, Ohio Valley champs) in San Jose.

Other burning questions: will Minnesota be in the field?  Illinois?  We'll find out soon enough.  The best sports week of the year is about to begin.

More photos » Paul Battaglia - AP

2 months ago: Ohio State guard David Lighty (23) shoots against Minnesota forward Paul Carter during the first half in an NCAA college basketball game, Saturday, Jan. 9, 2010 in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Paul Battaglia)

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So, Ohio State - Minnesota it is.  (If you picked that matchup, you almost certainly won the tournament pool.  Also, you are clairvoyant.)  Ohio State has looked vulnerable in the past two games -- until the final minute, of course, when either Evan Turner and David Lighty has absolutely taken over.  Minnesota, meanwhile, had no trouble getting over playing the late overtime game against Your Spartans, as they absolutely demolished Purdue.

Minnesota is looking to become only the second team in tournament history to win the championship after having to play on the first day.    (Iowa did it as a #6 seed in 2001.  Also, if Minnesota wins, Pete will eat his hat, which should be entertaining.)  For that reason, you might give the advantage to Ohio State, but the Gophers are a very deep team--nine players average more than ten minutes per game, as you might recall--and consequently are reasonably well-equipped to handle four games in four days.  Ultimately, as Martin Tyler might say, it's the irresistable force versus the immovable object.  Should be great, but I'm not betting against Evan Turner.

So, enjoy the game, and talk about it here.  We'll be back with another open thread for the tournament selection show later this evening.  (FWIW, Rexrode thinks we're heading out west.)

More photos » Darron Cummings - AP

You happy now? Finally?

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State battled, but some clutch shots by Minnesota--and more importantly, 17-33 free throw shooting by Your Spartans--doomed us to a loss sadly reminiscent of the 03-04 dark years.  Minnesota probably punched their NCAA tournament ticket, but our hopes for a 3 seed are now dashed (and we might now be looking at a 5 seed.  Bleh).

MSU hockey was also crushed by Michigan, making tonight a crappy evening, indeed.  So grab a glass of scotch and drown your sorrows here.