More photos » Al Goldis - AP

Think positive. Think positive.

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• The State News : Blogs - Allen talks about suspension
  "It was tough. Seeing plays if I was in I could have done something, it was just hurtful.  I was just hurting so that humbled me a lot."  Yeah.  Us, too.
• Tom Izzo defends his discipline of MSU players this season | detnews.com | The Detroit News
  Allen practicing well according to Izzo.
  
• Minnesota-Michigan State is top-rated basketball game in Big Ten Network's history | - MLive.com
  Half a million people were watching.  No wonder the team missed so many free throws.  All that pressure.
  
• Michigan State's Raymar Morgan, Kalin Lucas and Draymond Green selected as team MVPs | - MLive.com
  Lucas and Morgan picked by players, Green by the media.  I'd lean slightly toward Green, but they're all in the same ballpark.  Morgan wins if you weight late-season performance more heavily.
• Trash talk galore! | DETNEWS | Weblogs | Big Ten Blog
  New Mexico State's leading scorer has never heard of Kalin Lucas.
• Can Maryland Slow Down Houston's Aubrey Coleman? - Testudo Times
  The game on the other side of the pod looks potentially entertaining.
• Don't fall for 'em: The five most overrated teams - The Dagger - NCAAB Blog - Yahoo! Sports
  I hope they're right about Maryland.
• Basketball Prospectus | Articles | Tournament Preview: Midwest Musings
  Only a 3.6% chance of making the Final Four under the KenPom log5 methodology.
• Tom Izzo, Steve Mariucci set record straight on relationship | detnews.com | The Detroit News
  TMI.
• Pershing downs Southeastern in overtime | detnews.com | The Detroit News
  29 and 7 for Keith Appling.  Late-game steal made up for missed free throw.
• Jefferson runs past Lehman for D-IV district title
  Adreian Payne back in action after the dislocated shoulder: 14 points, 11 rebounds.
• Where does Trey Zeigler fit best? - ESPN
  Options are UCLA/U-M/MSU/CMU/Duke.  MSU still doesn't have scholarship spot officially open.
• Scouting & Video: Trey Zeigler vs. Flint NW | UM Hoops.com
  Dylan with the first-hand scouting report; free throw shooting an issue.
• Iowa outlines hoops job in ad | Hawkmania
  Hey, I have a master's degree!
• Playing the name game | Hawkmania
  Brian Gregory a potential candidate to replace Todd Lickliter?  Not sure I want two former Izzo assistants in the Big Ten.
• Broadcaster Bill Raftery prepares for his 28th NCAA tournament - The Bonus - SI.com
  Good read.
• Big Ten Prospectus - What Is Your Team Really Worth to the Conference? - The Rivalry, Esq.
  Interesting: Blind formulating puts MSU at #4, behind UM/OSU/PSU.
• WhatIfSports.com: Big Ten Network Bracket of Classics, College Basketball Tournament
  Apparently, NCAA sanctions prevent the Fab Five teams from even participating in hypothetical tournaments.  79, 00, and 09 teams in for MSU.
• Michigan's only known wolverine is dead | - MLive.com
  Autopsy showed it died of a broken heart.  Hardy, har, har.
  

[Not so much with the laconicism on the first two links.]

Must-See Statistical Wonkery of the Basketball Variety

I've had an idea bouncing around in my head for a couple years about building a statistical model to predict the future performance of college basketball teams based on the percentage of minutes they return from the previous season and the quality of their incoming recruits.  The problem has been that I do not possess the methodological prowess to actually, you know, implement this idea.  Thankfully, Dan Hanner does.  The results:

As expected, teams with the most freshman possessions are the most likely to improve. This isn’t so much a, "freshman work hard in the off-season" effect as a "boy last year sucked because we had to give the freshman so many shots" effect. Returning juniors have a slightly bigger effect than sophomores, but the difference is not statistically significant.

For departing players, the higher the individual efficiency or ORtg of the departing player, the more the team’s offensive efficiency is expected to drop. In fact, losing highly inefficient players is not harmful at all. If a departing player’s efficiency rating is below 91.2, his departure benefits the team’s offense. But the departure of players above this level hurts the offense, and the departure of highly efficient players is very costly.

Top 10 and Top 100 Freshmen have a small impact. For every Kentucky this year, there is a North Carolina this year. Each Top 10 Freshman recruit increases team efficiency by about 1.13 points. Each Top 100 Freshman recruit increases offensive efficiency by about 0.26 points. I’ve been playing around with recruiting data off and on for over three years and I have never gotten a huge effect. I’m to the point now where I really believe the average effect is minimal. For every John Wall this year, there is a Lance Stephenson this year.

New coaches (first-time or school-changers) have a negative impact, on average. While there are obviously many turnaround stories, an equal number of coaches inherit disasters where simply treading water can be viewed as a success in year one.

The list of schools for which Hanner's model would have predicted large improvement from last to this season make intuitive sense: teams returning a lot of talent (Kansas, Ohio State), teams returning a lot of depth (Minnesota--which hasn't followed through on what the numbers/intuition would have predicted), and teams that were really, really bad last year (Indiana).

No model is going to be perfect, of course; Syracuse was expected to experience a significant decline.  So was Wisconsin (to a lesser extent).  I'm pretty sure it would be impossible to build a statistical model that explains why the Badgers never suffer when their stars depart (outside of including a dummy variable for "team is coached by William "Bo" Francis Ryan, Jr.)

So what does the model say about how efficiently Michigan State should be playing this season based on what they did last season?

Continue reading this post »

More photos » AJ Mast - AP

Literally playing six inches taller than he is.

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• 2010 NCAA Men's Basketball Rankings (March 1)
  Up to #11/12.  Neck and neck with the Butler Bulldogs.  Still lower, but also up from last week, in the KenPom and Sagarin rankings, both of which have us at #20.
• The 2010 Bracket Matrix: The NCAA Basketball Field of 65
  Bracketologists still can't make their mind up us about us.  Mean is a 4-seed; mode is a 3-seed; several 5-seed projections in there, too (and an 8-seed?!).  Consensus is that Minnesota is the sixth team out of the field at this point.
• Ankle sprain won't keep Spartans G Durrell Summers from playing | detnews.com | The Detroit News
  Good news.
• The State News : Sleepover builds chemistry, leads to win
  Father and son campout on the Breslin Center floor Block S last Friday night.  Also: Delvon Roe will need to have his knee scoped after the season is over.
  
• Kalin Lucas continues to show that he has next-level potential | MLive.com
  Defending #1 after an off game.
• Crashing The Dance: Quick Steps: On the Road Again
  Evan Turner is very, how you say, valuable.
• Reaction in two parts | mgoblog
  I'm way late on this, but I can't allow Brian to get away with using the lack of comment on the U-M NCAA infraction story here at TOC as part of his defense.  So here you go: YELLOW-BELLIED CHEATERS!  CHEATING IS THE ONLY WAY YOU EVEN GOT INTO OVERTIME AGAINST US!  (But seriously, the reason we haven't commented on the story is that . . . it's basketball season.)
  
• Road to Recovery: Wolverines wary of another 'rebuilding' crash - Dr. Saturday - NCAAF Blog - Yahoo! Sports
  Let's focus on the future: .500 or bust!
• Spartans' Oren Wilson, Chris L. Rucker, Myles White plead guilty in connection to Nov. 22 fight | - MLive.com
  I'm now ethically compelled to do a couple links on our own football-related issues.  That's the final batch of guilty pleas.
• Chris L. Rucker's attorney belives Rucker is 'reinstated' to Michigan State football team | freep.com | Detroit Free Press
  I really fail to see what the upside is of the university not clarifying the players' status.
• Ohio will be key again for MSU | freep.com | Detroit Free Press
  #1 player in Ohio's 2011 class, DB Doran Grant, has Spartan connection.
• Purdue loss brings chaos to Big Ten lead - College Basketball Nation Blog - ESPN
  If three front runners win out, MSU will be the #3 seed in the BTT.

Bonus, Potentially-Jinx-Inducing Big Ten Championship Odds

Just for fun, here are the odds of the three Big Ten leaders winning their remaining regular season games, per KenPom's projections:

Michigan State

• Penn State: 89%
  
• Michigan: 86%
  
• Odds of winning both games: 76.5%

Purdue

• Indiana: 98%
  
• At Penn State: 79%
• Odds of winning both games: 77.4%

Ohio State

• Illinois: 85% (only remaining game)

Using those odds, you get the following percentage odds of various Big Ten title outcomes:

• Three-way tie with 4 losses: 50.4%
• Two-way tie with 4 losses: 39.0%
• Ohio State wins outright: 4.5%
• Purdue wins outright: 2.7%
• MSU wins outright: 2.6%
• Champion has 5 losses (almost certainly a multi-team tie, potentially including Wisconsin): 0.8%

The number with Breslin banner implications is 76.5%.  That's number actually looks kind of scary--but a lot less scary than the number from Sunday at 3:00 would have looked.

• 2010 NCAA Men's Basketball Rankings (Feb. 22)
  Down to #14 in both polls.
• Jeff Sagarin NCAA basketball ratings
  Sagarin has us at just #27; 2-5 record vs. top 50 teams (wins vs. Gonzaga/Wisconsin).
• 2010 Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings
  KenPom says #24; two wins against #29 Minnesota help a bit.
• The 2010 Bracket Matrix: The NCAA Basketball Field of 65
  Bracketologists have us anywhere from a 3-seed to a 6-seed.
• MSU's Kalin Lucas apologizes for snubbing media after loss | detnews.com | The Detroit News
  Classy move: "We don't do it like that here."  Also: "It's my team.  If I don't play well, we lose."
• MSU's Draymond Green makes case to start | detnews.com | The Detroit News
  I don't think it solves any of the team's fundamental issues (MSU actually led 10-4 early in Sunday's game), but it's probably not a bad idea at this point.
• LSJ Blogs: Hey, Joe: Team LCD
  I usually don't buy the "chemistry" argument but it's getting harder to dismiss.  Really having a hard time buying the Summers-going-pro-early angle.
• Michigan State loses to 5 1/2 guys at home " Great Lakes Hoops
  That's a particularly painful way to put it.
• Additional Free Seating Available for Basketball Banquet Awards Program - MICHIGAN STATE OFFICIAL ATHLETIC SITE
  Nice they're trying to involve more fans, but eating concession stand food while you watch other people eating a real dinner seems kind of weird.
• Interview: Former Michigan State star Maurice Ager talks about the D-League, faith and getting back to the NBA | It's Just Sports - MLive.com
  Reunited with Paul Davis in Maine.
• McCamey a pro? Weber has thought about it | herald-review.com | Blogs: Mark Tupper
  Starting to seem pretty plausible; 43 assists in last 4 games.
• Ricky Stanzi Has Found His Secretary of Defense - Black Heart Gold Pants
  Ryan Miller named to Stanzi/Leman cabinet.
• Sexton's Miller commits to Spartans | lansingstatejournal.com | Lansing State Journal
  First 2011 commit: Lansing Sexton RB Onaje Miller.  Not on Rivals' radar; one star at Scout.  Reported offers from Wisconsin and MAC teams, interest from Michigan.
• Big Ten hires firm to research potential expansion candidates - JSOnline
  15 teams on list.  Texas not one of them.  But seems like half of Big 12 and half of Big East must be, though.
• The Death of the Big 12 Conference - The Rivalry, Esq.
  TRE breaks down the half of the Big 12 that are candidates.
• Big Ten Expansion Question and Answer on Nebraska's Candidacy with Corn Nation - Maize n Brew
  Blogosphere flirtation with a popular Big 12 choice.  (Note: "Blogosphere Flirtation" would be an excellent name for a rock album.)
• Michigan football coach Rich Rodriguez at Victors' Rally: 'I'm a Michigan man' - AnnArbor.com
  He may need to beat OSU and/or MSU before they give him official status in that club.
  
• Nine questions (or so) with author Lee Panas - Bless You Boys
  Semi-OT, but those of you who are statheads should check out Lee's book.
• Plus/Minus Explained - StatSheet.com ChangeLog
  Speaking of stats, plus/minus stats are up at StatSheet.  I plan to delve into these numbers at some point, unless someone beats me to it in a FanPost.  (Hint, hint.)
• Added: Scouting reports on teams in ACC, Big East, Big Ten, SEC - Seth Davis - SI.com
  Anonymous coach on MSU: "Their biggest problem is they don't have a legitimate inside threat. If you can attack them from the inside out, and if you can contain [Kalin] Lucas, who's the head of the snake, you have a great chance to neutralize them. . . ."
  

Miller got help from Brian Rafalski (Wisconsin) with his two goals and Ryan Suter (Wisconsin) and his two assists, but the play of the night came from a Buckeye. Ryan Kesler’s lunge to salt away the game on an empty-netter with :45 to play has to be seen (and watched many times over).

James Mirtle also noted that former MSU defenseman (and current hated Blackhawk) Duncan Keith was probably the best player on the ice for Canada tonight.  But, back to the subject at hand: USA USA USA USA USA USA!

More photos » Don Heupel - AP

about 1 month ago: Buffalo Sabres goalie Ryan Miller, left, is presented with his 2010 Winter Olympics hockey jersey before the NHL hockey game against the San Jose Sharks in Buffalo, N.Y. on Saturday, Feb. 13, 2010. (AP Photo/ Don Heupel)

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YOUR UNITED STATES OLYMPIC HOCKEY TEAM v. SWITZERLAND

VANCOUVER, CANADA, at 3 PM EST, NOON PST

TV: USA NETWORK, also at nbcolympics.com

I've returned from my month long absence at the best possible time - MSU Basketball and Hockey are heading towards the NCAAs, and a quaint sporting competition called the Winter Olympics is in full swing.  Hockey's one of the premier sports at the Winter Olympics, aside from Figure Skating (laugh if you will, but there's few other sports where four years can go down the drain so crushingly), Curling (more than shuffleboard on ice, but just barely), and Short Track Speed Skating (they skate on blades the size of katanas, wearing only a bike helmet for protection.  If this sounds awesome, it's because it is). 

ANYWAY, as you've probably heard, a Spartan figures prominently in the Olympic Ice Hockey competition, and it's goalie Ryan Miller.  If the U.S. has any shot of winning this tournament, Miller's going to have to play a prominent role.  SBNation has a preview of today's action here and an overall preview of the tournament here. 

As for today's game?  The U.S. is a heavy favorite, but as we've learned from the Miracle on Ice in 1980 and the three Mighty Ducks movies, anything can happen in hockey.  Whoever loses today won't be eliminated from the tournament, but will most likely lose out on a bye to the quarterfinals after pool play.

This is the open thread.  USA! USA! USA! (obligatory)

More photos » Steve Manuel - AP

about 1 month ago: Michigan State guard Kalin Lucas (1) scores as teammate Raymar Morgan (2) and Penn State guard Tim Frazier (23) look on during an NCAA college basketball game on Saturday, Feb. 13, 2010, in State College, Pa. (AP Photo/Steve Manuel)

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• Izzo: Lucious to play against Indiana | detnews.com | The Detroit News
  The specific reason for his one-game suspension still hasn't been disclosed, but it must have been minor. With a reinstated Lucious and the unstoppable force that is Mike Kebler competing for playing time, Kalin Lucas looks to be the odd man out.*
• The dogmas of the quiet past | Inside the Hall | An Indiana Hoosiers basketball blog
  On deck: Indiana, where the natives are getting very restless.
  
• It’s Gonna Be a Hell of a Week and Then We’ll Party | Eleven Warriors
  On double deck: Ohio State, where things are considerably more sanguine.  Also, holy crap, sign me up for the Club Tril party.
• Nebraska willing to listen if Big Ten calls - Big Ten Blog - ESPN
  This is probably less likely than Mizzou, because in terms of money, the St. Louis and Kansas City markets >>> the Omaha and Lincoln markets.  But personally, I'd take Nebraska over Mizzou.  The move would obviously be meh in basketball terms, but spectacularly awesome for football.  And, there's a natural potential rivalry with Iowa, just as there is for Mizzou (Illinois) and Pitt (PSU).  Worth pursuing.  (Note: this may or may not be the official TOC position.  I suspect that my more basketball-focused colleagues might not be so interested.)
• MSU should be forthright regarding status of football players | detnews.com | The Detroit News
  Lacy sticks with the story; I don't really have a problem with that, because there's still so much that we don't know about the incident and aftermath.  Looks like there might be some communication issues within the football program: "'(Dantonio) hasn't told (the players involved in the fight) much about our futures,' said Smith. 'He just told us to keep our heads up and deal with the situation.'"
• The State News : Lots of hockey left, but MSU should be 'in'
  The hockey team had a good weekend without even playing: Ferris State split with LSSU, and Nebraska-Omaha swept Michigan.  FSU is MSU's biggest competition for 2nd in the conference, and even a struggling Michigan team is a dangerous Michigan team.  (Aside: U-M needs to win the conference tournament now to avoid missing the NCAA tournament for the first time in 20 years.)  MSU is now tied for 9th in the Pairwise rankings; a home-and-home series with a struggling FSU team beckons, and then the team finishes the regular season with a highly sweepable series against Bowling Green.
  
• Pershing, Cody net title game | freep.com | Detroit Free Press
  Swoon: "After scoring only four points in the first quarter, Appling took command and help drive the Doughboys into the Detroit Public School League championship game with a 74-58 win Saturday over King. Appling finished with 40 points, scoring 13 points in the second quarter and 16 in the third."
• Four chase Mr. Basketball nod | detnews.com | The Detroit News
  Appling, Saginaw Arthur Hill guard and USC commit Maurice Jones, Detroit Country Day guard Ray McCallum, and Mt. Pleasant forward Trey Zeigler.  Tom Markowski (author) considers Appling the favorite.
• The Mid-Majority : Hello, I'm Not Kyle Whelliston
  Ex-Wonk running the show at the Mid-Majority this week.  We'll find out if Gasaway knows as much about Monmouth as he does about Michigan State.  (Spoiler: probably, which is scary.)
• Five lessons from a fake selection committee - College Basketball Nation Blog - ESPN
  Good insight from Eamonn Brennan on the tournament selection process.  Bad news for Northwestern fans.
• *psyche!

First, behold CBS's newest promo for March Madness on Demand:

"OH MY GOODNESS!  OH, MAN!"  One thing that wasn't lost on us during our Final Four run last year: the massive upgrade that is Clark Kellogg over Billy Packer.  Onto the links:

• The State News : Izzone: Prove Breslin Center rep holds true
  "And to the Izzone: You might be considered one of the nation’s best and most-storied student sections, but the effort really needs to be turned up. No more texting during the game (especially during play!) and every single one of you needs to be bouncing up and down and screaming your lungs out all game — especially the side that is seen on TV. It looks bad when the only visible part is just standing."
  
  A little melodramatic, and I honestly could care less what the section looks like on TV, as long as it's ferocious and terrifying and great in person -- but the overarching point is well taken.  For what it's worth, my guess is that the crowd tonight will be the best it's been since at least the 2007 Wisconsin game.
• John Wall, Sherron Collins among Cousy Award finalists - NCAA Basketball - SI.com
  Also Kalin Lucas, but not Evan Turner (what?!  He's been playing point all season.).
• MSU offers state best chance at title in the near future | freep.com | Detroit Free Press
  Schmaltz from Rosenberg.  Thankfully, he explicitly eschews the ridiculous "carrying an entire state on their backs" meme that was so prevalent during last year's Final Four.
• A Great Day to Be a Boilermaker - WSJ.com
  Yesterday and not today, obvs.
• Big Ten's Delaney [sic] worried about tourney expansion - College Basketball Nation Blog - ESPN
  Seen elsewhere on the internets: "If it makes money, and Jim Delany's still against it, it must be a horrible idea."
• StatSheet Boxscores in HD (now with Plus/Minus) - StatSheet.com ChangeLog
  Yesssssssssssss.
• After long trip, Spartan hockey team can rest their legs | lansingstatejournal.com | Lansing State Journal
  Good hockey news roundup.  Your Spartans have the week off, and then start a crucial weekend series with Ferris State.  MSU's currently 14th in the Pairwise rankings, and thus come tournament time could easily be on the outside looking in without some big wins in the next few weeks.
• William Gholston leads group of high-impact MSU newcomers | detnews.com | The Detroit News
  Wolverine recruiting guru Sam Webb profiles Max Bullough, Will Gholston, Mylan Hicks, Isaiah Lewis, and Skyler Schofner.
• National Signing Day one of hope for U-M, MSU | detnews.com | The Detroit News
  Meanwhile, Wojo looks at the big picture.
• Five Big Ten newcomers to watch in 2010 - Big Ten Blog - ESPN
  More Gholston love, this time from Rittenberg: "Gholston is a unique specimen at 6-foot-7 and 237 pounds, and the heralded recruit should be able to help Michigan State's pass rush from an outside linebacker or rush-end position. It'll be interesting to see how the Spartans coaches use Gholston in 2010, but he'll undoubtedly have a major role for the defense."
  
  Good stuff.  However, I must hereby enact this amendment to the TOC Constitution: We will never call anyone, player or recruit a "specimen."  So ordered.
• Where are they now? Kelvin Torbert | Dime Magazine (www.dimemag.com) : Daily NBA News, NBA Trades, NBA Rumors, Basketball Videos, Sneakers
  
  Adam Ballinger Podcast: Adjusting To Life And Basketball Down Under – LostLettermen.com
  
  D.C. Sports Bog - Devin Thomas likes Predator tattoos, modeling
  
  File those last three under "where are they now?"
• Demar Dorsey And Drew Sharp | mgoblog
  We need to head northeast on that aerial.  Hey, what's the deal with those airplane peanuts??