Pomeroy's Log5 projections don't like MSU's chances much: 62.8% to win Friday (KenPom ratings still like Minnesota a lot), 27.3% to get to the tournament final, 9.5% to win the thing. (100.0% chance of getting to the second round, though!)
The model's favorites are Wisconsin, Purdue, and Ohio State, in that order (but of course the model doesn't know Robbie Hummel will be in street clothes).
Numbers, schmumbers.
BTW, there are still 24 hours left to enter The Third Annual and (As Far As We Know) World's Only Big Ten Tournament Bracket Contest.