So the preseason polls are out, and the Spartans got very little love. Which is surprising because, as Steve Grinczel noted (H/T: Steve Hendershot), preseason polls are generally based on the "recency" effect -- where teams finish the previous season becomes where teams start the next season.
So, I figured, why not go all in on last year being a predictor for this year?
I went to the 2008 Final Sagarin rankings -- using the Predictor model -- and lined out this year's schedule using last year's rankings. And was very unsurprised by what I found.
| 2008 Final | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | Rating | Home Edge | Visitor | Rating | Line |
| MSU | 77.54 | 2.62 | Montana State | 50.24 | -29.92 |
| MSU | 77.54 | 2.62 | Central Michigan | 62.3 | -17.86 |
| Notre Dame | 73.69 | 2.62 | MSU | 77.54 | 1.23 |
| Wisconsin | 71.6 | 2.62 | MSU | 77.54 | 3.32 |
| MSU | 77.54 | 2.62 | Michigan | 65.79 | -14.37 |
| Illinois | 72.46 | 2.62 | MSU | 77.54 | 2.46 |
| MSU | 77.54 | 2.62 | Northwestern | 75.59 | -4.57 |
| MSU | 77.54 | 2.62 | Iowa | 88.2 | 8.04 |
| Minnesota | 68.05 | 2.62 | MSU | 77.54 | 6.87 |
| MSU | 77.54 | 2.62 | Western Michigan | 65.04 | -15.12 |
| Purdue | 69.98 | 2.62 | MSU | 77.54 | 4.94 |
| MSU | 77.54 | 2.62 | Penn State | 94.3 | 14.14 |
As you can see, MSU would be a favorite in all but two games: Iowa and Penn State. Using this predictive model, 10-2 is very much within reach.
Since I started this post, the 2009 Preseason Sagarin rankings have been put up. Here is a game-by-game based on preseason Predictor rankings.
| 2009 Preseason | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | Rating | Home Edge | Visitor | Rating | Line |
| MSU | 76.36 | 3.14 | Montana State | 53.82 | -25.68 |
| MSU | 76.36 | 3.14 | Central Michigan | 65.24 | -14.26 |
| Notre Dame | 75.02 | 3.14 | MSU | 76.36 | -1.8 |
| Wisconsin | 78.32 | 3.14 | MSU | 76.36 | -5.1 |
| MSU | 76.36 | 3.14 | Michigan | 77.66 | -1.84 |
| Illinois | 71.55 | 3.14 | MSU | 76.36 | 1.67 |
| MSU | 76.36 | 3.14 | Northwestern | 71.92 | -7.58 |
| MSU | 76.36 | 3.14 | Iowa | 79.63 | 0.13 |
| Minnesota | 70.05 | 3.14 | MSU | 76.36 | 3.17 |
| MSU | 76.36 | 3.14 | Western Michigan | 65.11 | -14.39 |
| Purdue | 73.17 | 3.14 | MSU | 76.36 | 0.05 |
| MSU | 76.36 | 3.14 | Penn State | 86.58 | 7.08 |
Not quite as good for MSU, but still an 8-4 finish.
I personally am predicting 9-3: losses to Penn State, Iowa (although I am growing less sure of this by the day), and at Illinois. I just don't see Notre Dame as that much improved and I think Wisconsin is in the middle of a downward trend.
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