[This is not so much a real post as a blockquote/bulletpoint/numbers dump. This is what you get for showing an interest in my rigged-up statistical inventions. Appropriate given that SparanDan helped invent PORPAG.]
Original post on Points Over Replacement Per Adjusted Game (PORPAG) is here. Big picture concept/caveats:
- As a refresher, this stat is an attempt to measure the marginal points per game a player contributes to his team on offense above what a "replacement-level" player would provide.
- Major caveats: (1) Basketball is a team, not an individual, sport and (2) this stat tells you nothing whatsoever about defense.
- Pace factor is set at 64 possession/game--roughly the average through the first half of Big Ten play.
- I left the "replacement-level" offensive rating at 88.0.
- This stat is meant to measure cumulative, rather than average, offensive impact. So missing time due to injury hurts you (Evan Turner).
- This is conference-only data. The conference schedule is, of course, unbalanced.
- The table below includes all players who've played at least 40.0% of their teams' minutes in conference play.
- Data pulled from StatSheet.com. The Minute% numbers look a little glitchy for players that have missed time due to injury/etc. I've attempted to correct any obvious errors.
Numbers after the jump:
|Evan Turner||Ohio State||112.1||32.8||65.0||3.28|
|Kalin Lucas||Michigan State||110.9||26.2||83.3||3.20|
|Draymond Green||Michigan State||122.9||18.6||66.7||2.76|
|Jon Diebler||Ohio State||117.3||15.7||92.5||2.72|
|Talor Battle||Penn State||103.1||29.4||94.2||2.67|
|William Buford||Ohio State||107.1||25.0||86.7||2.65|
|Raymar Morgan||Michigan State||112.3||22.4||64.4||2.24|
|David Jackson||Penn State||113.6||16.0||79.2||2.08|
|David Lighty||Ohio State||103.5||19.7||88.6||1.73|
|Durrell Summers||Michigan State||107.3||20.2||68.9||1.71|
|Chris Babb||Penn State||108.2||16.6||77.8||1.67|
|Ralph Sampson III||Minnesota||112.8||16.1||52.6||1.35|
|Verdell Jones III||Indiana||95.8||30.7||85.2||1.31|
|Delvon Roe||Michigan State||104.2||20.6||48.3||1.03|
|Chris Allen||Michigan State||98.8||17.1||71.4||0.84|
|Dallas Lauderdale||Ohio State||96.5||13.7||65.0||0.48|
|Korie Lucious||Michigan State||88.9||15.5||50.8||0.04|
|Jeff Brooks||Penn State||88.3||19.9||47.7||0.02|
|Andrew Jones III||Penn State||75.5||14.9||50.4||(0.60)|
|Bill Edwards||Penn State||76.8||21.3||51.2||(0.78)|
- My major complaint (to myself) about PORPAG is that it over-rewards 3-point shooting. Hoffarber and Diebler both look out of place.
- Remove those two guys, and the top ten players on the list look like a pretty solid set of candidates for first- and second-team all-conference honors: Hummel, Sims, Shurna, McCamey, Moore, Turner, Lucas, Green, Battle, Harris. No obvious candidates to jump into the top ten based on defensive performance.
- Robbie Hummel is your leader at the turn for conference player of the year. Has improved almost all his offensive numbers over last season, despite taking a larger role in the offense.
- Evan Turner will likely climb toward/to the top as he picks up more minutes played down the stretch, though.
- DeShawn Sims' numbers are pretty amazing for a guy playing alone inside amongst a group of teammates who can't hit 3-pointers.
- John Shurna's numbers are even more impressive in light of how hard Northwestern's schedule has been to date.
- Demetri McCamey's finally playing up to his potential, although he's still been somewhat up and down (3 games in single digits scoring).
- If you factor in defense, you can make an argument that, statistically speaking, Draymond Green (#2 in the league in DefReb%) has actually been MSU's most valuable player to date. Kalin Lucas has been pretty good, too: right on pace with his conference-only PORPAG figure of 3.10 from last season (which was perhaps a bit of a down year for offensive stars).
- Bottom 6 includes 2 each from Iowa, Penn State, and Indiana.