[This is not so much a real post as a blockquote/bulletpoint/numbers dump. This is what you get for showing an interest in my rigged-up statistical inventions. Appropriate given that SparanDan helped invent PORPAG.]
Original post on Points Over Replacement Per Adjusted Game (PORPAG) is here. Big picture concept/caveats:
- As a refresher, this stat is an attempt to measure the marginal points per game a player contributes to his team on offense above what a "replacement-level" player would provide.
- Major caveats: (1) Basketball is a team, not an individual, sport and (2) this stat tells you nothing whatsoever about defense.
Technical stuff:
- Pace factor is set at 64 possession/game--roughly the average through the first half of Big Ten play.
- I left the "replacement-level" offensive rating at 88.0.
- This stat is meant to measure cumulative, rather than average, offensive impact. So missing time due to injury hurts you (Evan Turner).
- This is conference-only data. The conference schedule is, of course, unbalanced.
- The table below includes all players who've played at least 40.0% of their teams' minutes in conference play.
- Data pulled from StatSheet.com. The Minute% numbers look a little glitchy for players that have missed time due to injury/etc. I've attempted to correct any obvious errors.
Numbers after the jump:
| Player | Team | OffRtg | Poss% | Min% | PORPAG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Hummel | Purdue | 127.0 | 24.1 | 86.7 | 5.22 |
| DeShawn Sims | Michigan | 113.6 | 28.2 | 89.2 | 4.13 |
| John Shurna | Northwestern | 114.8 | 25.5 | 94.0 | 4.11 |
| Demetri McCamey | Illinois | 114.7 | 25.0 | 89.6 | 3.83 |
| Blake Hoffarber | Minnesota | 140.3 | 15.3 | 73.7 | 3.78 |
| E`Twaun Moore | Purdue | 109.5 | 29.4 | 82.8 | 3.35 |
| Evan Turner | Ohio State | 112.1 | 32.8 | 65.0 | 3.28 |
| Kalin Lucas | Michigan State | 110.9 | 26.2 | 83.3 | 3.20 |
| Draymond Green | Michigan State | 122.9 | 18.6 | 66.7 | 2.76 |
| Jon Diebler | Ohio State | 117.3 | 15.7 | 92.5 | 2.72 |
| Talor Battle | Penn State | 103.1 | 29.4 | 94.2 | 2.67 |
| Manny Harris | Michigan | 106.2 | 28.8 | 79.2 | 2.65 |
| William Buford | Ohio State | 107.1 | 25.0 | 86.7 | 2.65 |
| Mike Tisdale | Illinois | 113.6 | 20.8 | 76.7 | 2.61 |
| Jason Bohannon | Wisconsin | 115.3 | 15.5 | 95.3 | 2.58 |
| Jordan Taylor | Wisconsin | 108.9 | 24.2 | 75.6 | 2.45 |
| Keaton Nankivil | Wisconsin | 113.7 | 20.6 | 66.3 | 2.25 |
| Raymar Morgan | Michigan State | 112.3 | 22.4 | 64.4 | 2.24 |
| Trevon Hughes | Wisconsin | 102.0 | 28.4 | 87.7 | 2.23 |
| Lawrence Westbrook | Minnesota | 108.2 | 24.6 | 66.8 | 2.12 |
| David Jackson | Penn State | 113.6 | 16.0 | 79.2 | 2.08 |
| D.J. Richardson | Illinois | 108.6 | 18.4 | 77.8 | 1.89 |
| Jeremy Nash | Northwestern | 109.6 | 16.1 | 84.1 | 1.87 |
| Drew Crawford | Northwestern | 103.0 | 23.5 | 78.4 | 1.77 |
| David Lighty | Ohio State | 103.5 | 19.7 | 88.6 | 1.73 |
| Durrell Summers | Michigan State | 107.3 | 20.2 | 68.9 | 1.71 |
| Chris Babb | Penn State | 108.2 | 16.6 | 77.8 | 1.67 |
| Michael Thompson | Northwestern | 104.6 | 16.4 | 94.2 | 1.64 |
| Aaron Fuller | Iowa | 101.0 | 23.9 | 75.6 | 1.50 |
| Damian Johnson | Minnesota | 106.3 | 20.5 | 60.8 | 1.46 |
| Zack Novak | Michigan | 105.3 | 14.8 | 84.7 | 1.39 |
| JaJuan Johnson | Purdue | 99.7 | 22.7 | 80.6 | 1.37 |
| Bill Cole | Illinois | 120.1 | 10.7 | 61.4 | 1.35 |
| Ralph Sampson III | Minnesota | 112.8 | 16.1 | 52.6 | 1.35 |
| Verdell Jones III | Indiana | 95.8 | 30.7 | 85.2 | 1.31 |
| Jordan Hulls | Indiana | 105.7 | 14.3 | 76.0 | 1.23 |
| Chris Kramer | Purdue | 111.3 | 11.5 | 70.3 | 1.20 |
| Luke Mirkovic | Northwestern | 100.7 | 21.7 | 64.7 | 1.14 |
| Delvon Roe | Michigan State | 104.2 | 20.6 | 48.3 | 1.03 |
| Jarryd Cole | Iowa | 103.9 | 16.9 | 55.3 | 0.95 |
| Chris Allen | Michigan State | 98.8 | 17.1 | 71.4 | 0.84 |
| Devan Dumes | Indiana | 97.9 | 25.9 | 48.6 | 0.80 |
| Devoe Joseph | Minnesota | 95.4 | 21.9 | 53.2 | 0.55 |
| Al Nolen | Minnesota | 97.5 | 19.9 | 41.9 | 0.51 |
| Dallas Lauderdale | Ohio State | 96.5 | 13.7 | 65.0 | 0.48 |
| Laval Lucas-Perry | Michigan | 96.6 | 13.8 | 60.6 | 0.46 |
| Mike Davis | Illinois | 93.3 | 18.2 | 71.5 | 0.44 |
| Christian Watford | Indiana | 90.7 | 25.5 | 75.1 | 0.33 |
| Kelsey Barlow | Purdue | 94.1 | 17.9 | 40.3 | 0.28 |
| Stu Douglass | Michigan | 91.4 | 15.3 | 81.7 | 0.27 |
| Keaton Grant | Purdue | 91.9 | 18.7 | 48.6 | 0.22 |
| Korie Lucious | Michigan State | 88.9 | 15.5 | 50.8 | 0.04 |
| Eric May | Iowa | 88.3 | 18.6 | 87.5 | 0.03 |
| Jeff Brooks | Penn State | 88.3 | 19.9 | 47.7 | 0.02 |
| Darius Morris | Michigan | 84.0 | 14.5 | 56.1 | (0.21) |
| Tim Jarmusz | Wisconsin | 76.9 | 6.9 | 62.7 | (0.31) |
| Tom Pritchard | Indiana | 77.3 | 9.9 | 53.2 | (0.36) |
| Andrew Jones III | Penn State | 75.5 | 14.9 | 50.4 | (0.60) |
| Matt Gatens | Iowa | 82.8 | 22.3 | 90.3 | (0.67) |
| Bill Edwards | Penn State | 76.8 | 21.3 | 51.2 | (0.78) |
| Jeremiah Rivers | Indiana | 72.4 | 16.8 | 74.8 | (1.26) |
| Cully Payne | Iowa | 69.9 | 23.4 | 76.4 | (2.06) |
Observations:
- My major complaint (to myself) about PORPAG is that it over-rewards 3-point shooting. Hoffarber and Diebler both look out of place.
- Remove those two guys, and the top ten players on the list look like a pretty solid set of candidates for first- and second-team all-conference honors: Hummel, Sims, Shurna, McCamey, Moore, Turner, Lucas, Green, Battle, Harris. No obvious candidates to jump into the top ten based on defensive performance.
- Robbie Hummel is your leader at the turn for conference player of the year. Has improved almost all his offensive numbers over last season, despite taking a larger role in the offense.
- Evan Turner will likely climb toward/to the top as he picks up more minutes played down the stretch, though.
- DeShawn Sims' numbers are pretty amazing for a guy playing alone inside amongst a group of teammates who can't hit 3-pointers.
- John Shurna's numbers are even more impressive in light of how hard Northwestern's schedule has been to date.
- Demetri McCamey's finally playing up to his potential, although he's still been somewhat up and down (3 games in single digits scoring).
- If you factor in defense, you can make an argument that, statistically speaking, Draymond Green (#2 in the league in DefReb%) has actually been MSU's most valuable player to date. Kalin Lucas has been pretty good, too: right on pace with his conference-only PORPAG figure of 3.10 from last season (which was perhaps a bit of a down year for offensive stars).
- Bottom 6 includes 2 each from Iowa, Penn State, and Indiana.