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Linking Laconically is estimating its chickens before they hatch

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Bonus, Potentially-Jinx-Inducing Big Ten Championship Odds

Just for fun, here are the odds of the three Big Ten leaders winning their remaining regular season games, per KenPom's projections:

Michigan State

  • Penn State: 89%
  • Michigan: 86%
  • Odds of winning both games: 76.5%

Purdue

  • Indiana: 98%
  • At Penn State: 79%
  • Odds of winning both games: 77.4%

Ohio State

  • Illinois: 85% (only remaining game)

Using those odds, you get the following percentage odds of various Big Ten title outcomes:

  • Three-way tie with 4 losses: 50.4%
  • Two-way tie with 4 losses: 39.0%
  • Ohio State wins outright: 4.5%
  • Purdue wins outright: 2.7%
  • MSU wins outright: 2.6%
  • Champion has 5 losses (almost certainly a multi-team tie, potentially including Wisconsin): 0.8%

The number with Breslin banner implications is 76.5%.  That's number actually looks kind of scary--but a lot less scary than the number from Sunday at 3:00 would have looked.