Our last look showed Ohio State solidly at the top, Illinois-Wisconsin-Purdue as the second tier, and us at the head of a close pack fighting for fifth (and the only one of the pack with a realistic shot at moving up). Two weeks later ...
| Pom Rank | Pom WPct | BT Rank | BT WPct | MABT Rank | MABT WPct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio St | 1 | 0.9823 | 1 | 0.9928 | 3 | 0.9855 |
| Purdue | 9 | 0.9669 | 14 | 0.9428 | 12 | 0.9693 |
| Wisconsin | 8 | 0.9682 | 16 | 0.9362 | 14 | 0.9665 |
| Minnesota | 42 | 0.8821 | 19 | 0.9289 | 31 | 0.9198 |
| Michigan St | 26 | 0.9251 | 23 | 0.9178 | 28 | 0.9236 |
| Illinois | 14 | 0.9444 | 25 | 0.9142 | 18 | 0.9545 |
| Northwestern | 48 | 0.8578 | 54 | 0.8365 | 37 | 0.9011 |
| Penn St | 53 | 0.8518 | 67 | 0.8073 | 63 | 0.8461 |
| Michigan | 66 | 0.8091 | 73 | 0.7939 | 62 | 0.8476 |
| Indiana | 69 | 0.8019 | 119 | 0.6245 | 97 | 0.7234 |
| Iowa | 81 | 0.7652 | 140 | 0.5718 | 108 | 0.6896 |
Relative to last time: Penn State has shot up the rankings (especially under Pomeroy's system), Minnesota (aided by a 3-0 record including a win over Purdue) has actually managed to jump us in one system (although that one also has us leapfrogging Illinois), and Michigan has slid back.
After the jump: Projections (ignoring home court, as always) and our win probabilities for every remaining game. Conference title projections are based on 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.
Basic Bradley-Terry (W-L Only)
| Team | WPct | Current | Average wins | 18-0 | 15-3 or better | 12-6 or better | 9-9 or better | 6-12 or worse | 3-15 or worse | Outright title | Share of title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio St | 0.9928 | 7-0 | 17.26 | 45.99% | 99.58% | 1 - (1 in 1.08M) | 1 - (1 in 238B) | N/A | N/A | 98.80% | 99.74% |
| Purdue | 0.9428 | 6-1 | 12.38 | N/A | 5.47% | 74.37% | 99.79% | 1 in 326k | N/A | 0.22% | 0.85% |
| Wisconsin | 0.9362 | 5-2 | 11.61 | N/A | 0.82% | 54.35% | 98.88% | 1 in 11,900 | N/A | 0.04% | 0.30% |
| Minnesota | 0.9289 | 4-3 | 11.14 | N/A | 0.21% | 41.07% | 96.75% | 0.07% | N/A | 0.00% | 0.06% |
| Michigan St | 0.9178 | 4-3 | 10.75 | N/A | 0.09% | 30.07% | 94.69% | 0.12% | N/A | 0.00% | 0.03% |
| Illinois | 0.9142 | 4-3 | 10.54 | N/A | 0.06% | 25.03% | 92.64% | 0.21% | N/A | 0.00% | 0.02% |
| Northwestern | 0.8365 | 3-5 | 7.40 | N/A | N/A | 0.10% | 21.22% | 25.93% | 0.11% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Penn St | 0.8073 | 3-4 | 6.69 | N/A | N/A | 0.05% | 10.54% | 45.87% | 0.62% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Michigan | 0.7939 | 1-6 | 5.33 | N/A | N/A | 1 in 561k | 1.31% | 79.73% | 9.38% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Iowa | 0.5718 | 1-6 | 2.98 | N/A | N/A | 1 in 919M | 1 in 20,900 | 99.52% | 68.58% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Indiana | 0.6245 | 1-6 | 2.91 | N/A | N/A | 1 in 8.96B | 1 in 51,400 | 99.71% | 71.43% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Ohio State's jumped out to a commanding lead (being unbeaten gives an enormous lead in these rankings unless there's a major difference in strength of schedule, and there isn't enough to overcome 3 losses for Purdue or more for everyone else). It appears to be a five-way battle for second place, with Purdue having about 3/4 of a game advantage over Wisconsin and all five in good shape to make the tournament (Illinois should be safe from a repeat of last year's fate - 10-8 and out - with a better non-conference schedule and better record against it). Northwestern and Penn State remain fringe bubble candidates at best, but if either can get to .500 they have a shot (Northwestern's non-conference schedule has little to recommend it but does include a win over Georgia Tech; Penn State's win over Duquesne is surprisingly valuable but losing to Maine may prove to be their doom). Michigan could fight their way into an NIT bid but it appears odds-against at this point.
Margin-Aware Bradley-Terry
| Team | WPct | Current | Average wins | 18-0 | 15-3 or better | 12-6 or better | 9-9 or better | 6-12 or worse | 3-15 or worse | Outright title | Share of title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio St | 0.9855 | 7-0 | 15.93 | 9.26% | 87.27% | 99.92% | 1 - (1 in 10.6M) | N/A | N/A | 81.51% | 92.06% |
| Purdue | 0.9693 | 6-1 | 13.12 | N/A | 16.36% | 87.45% | 99.95% | 1 in 2.08M | N/A | 5.24% | 12.78% |
| Wisconsin | 0.9665 | 5-2 | 12.38 | N/A | 5.12% | 74.81% | 99.73% | 1 in 87,100 | N/A | 1.94% | 6.00% |
| Illinois | 0.9545 | 4-3 | 11.28 | N/A | 0.48% | 44.72% | 97.52% | 1 in 43,500 | N/A | 0.17% | 1.07% |
| Michigan St | 0.9236 | 4-3 | 10.17 | N/A | 0.04% | 17.55% | 87.94% | 0.50% | N/A | 0.03% | 0.24% |
| Minnesota | 0.9198 | 4-3 | 10.04 | N/A | 0.04% | 16.33% | 85.07% | 0.83% | N/A | 0.03% | 0.21% |
| Northwestern | 0.9011 | 3-5 | 8.00 | N/A | N/A | 0.48% | 36.22% | 14.46% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Penn St | 0.8461 | 3-4 | 6.53 | N/A | N/A | 0.04% | 8.73% | 50.71% | 0.91% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Michigan | 0.8476 | 1-6 | 5.39 | N/A | N/A | 1 in 182k | 1.67% | 77.90% | 9.24% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Iowa | 0.6896 | 1-6 | 3.22 | N/A | N/A | 1 in 269M | 0.01% | 99.11% | 61.18% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Indiana | 0.7234 | 1-6 | 2.94 | N/A | N/A | 1 in 3.54B | 1 in 41,600 | 99.67% | 70.36% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Here Ohio State's lead is somewhat less formidable, with Purdue, Wisconsin, and Illinois all at a higher rating (in terms of win percentage against an average opponent) than in the basic system. Even so, it's Ohio State's to lose. We're in 5th in both methods, but here it's much closer ahead of Minnesota and a full game behind Illinois. Again, six teams look solidly in, and Northwestern's chances actually look better here (though still not especially good).
Upcoming MSU Games
| Pomeroy | Basic | Margin-Aware | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mich | 85%, -10 | 74.4% | 68.5%, -4.5 |
| Ind | 85%, -11 | 87.0% | 82.2%, -8.5 |
| @Iowa | 67%, -4 | 89.3% | 84.5%, -9.5 |
| @Wisc | 18%, +8 | 43.2% | 29.5%, +5 |
| PSU | 80%, -8 | 72.7% | 68.7%, -4.5 |
| @OSU | 10%, +12 | 7.5% | 15.1%, +10 |
| Ill | 58%, -2 | 51.2% | 36.6%, +3 |
| @Minn | 46%, +1 | 46.1% | 51.3%, -0.5 |
| Pur | 45%, +1 | 40.4% | 27.7%, +5.5 |
| Iowa | 88%, -11 | 89.3% | 84.5%, -9.5 |
| @Mich | 60%, -2 | 74.4% | 68.5%, -4.5 |
Keep in mind that Pomeroy's projections include home court but the other two do not.