Last week's action:
- MSU 28, Michigan 14. The game itself has been more than adequately covered already; as far as the division races go, it provides a critical tiebreaker edge.
- Penn State 23, Purdue 18. The kicking game was Purdue's undoing, as they missed a FG, a PAT, and a two-point conversion attempted to tie the game midway through the fourth (where a PAT would have been enough had they made the first). That's the second time PSU has let one of the Big Ten's bottom-feeders hang around, but they now sit at 6-1 despite some very erratic QB play.
- Wisconsin 59, Indiana 7. I guess Indiana can be proud that they held Wisconsin to 24 fewer points than last year.
- Ohio State 17, Illinois 7. Ohio State couldn't throw the ball and didn't really even try (four passes attempted on the day, a number that Army thinks is low), but when your opponents keep wrecking themselves with inopportune turnovers and some incredibly inept end-of-game management you don't really need to.
- Iowa 41, Northwestern 31. Iowa raced out to a quick 17-0 lead, but when Northwestern came back to tie it in the third quarter Hawkeye fans must have been having flashbacks to their frequent inexplicable losses to the Wildcats. Then the Hawks ripped off another 17 straight in the first half of the fourth quarter.
This week's games and standings tables after the jump.
Bye Weeks: Michigan, Ohio State
Game of the Week: Wisconsin @ Michigan State
While both teams will still control their own destiny for earning a possible rematch, a loss would remove any remaining margin for error. Wisconsin can stake their claim to a spot in the national title race should the presumed favorites (the winners of the Bama/LSU game and the Bedlam rivalry) stumble; MSU really needs this game to have a chance at a BCS at-large bid should we fail to reach and win the conference title game. (The realistic chances for a BCS at-large are to get to 11-1 but lose in the title game, or to lose at Nebraska, finish 10-2, fail to reach the title game, but jump the loser.) The no-margin ratings have this game a dead heat (Wisconsin is the nominal favorite with a 50.2% chance to win), but margin-aware is much higher on Wisconsin (67%, 5-point favorites).
Mismatch of the Week: Nebraska @ Minnesota
Lots to choose from for this category, actually, with the bottom four all in competition against top or mid-tier teams, but this one gets the edge for featuring the worst of the Big Ten tire fire teams. Home field cuts Nebraska's edge down to 90% in the no-margin ratings, 93% (18 points) in the margin-aware.
Other Big Ten Games
Illinois @ Purdue: Illinois 72% no-margin, 62% (3.5 pts) margin-aware
Indiana @ Iowa: Iowa 85% no-margin, 89% (14.5 pts) margin-aware
Penn State @ Northwestern: Penn State 81% no-margin, 75% (7.5 pts) margin-aware
Projected Standings: No-Margin System
West Division
| Team | Rank | Avg wins | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Bowl | Outright | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan St | 21 | 6.11 | 7.66% | 28.48% | 37.27% | 21.04% | 5.06% | 0.47% | 0.01% | N/A | N/A | 99.99% | 40.78% | 69.99% |
| Michigan | 14 | 5.33 | N/A | 11.85% | 33.26% | 34.59% | 16.50% | 3.54% | 0.26% | N/A | N/A | 100% | 12.48% | 34.34% |
| Nebraska | 16 | 4.98 | N/A | 6.30% | 25.45% | 36.95% | 23.59% | 6.83% | 0.86% | 0.04% | N/A | 99.96% | 9.49% | 27.27% |
| Iowa | 52 | 4.22 | N/A | 1.33% | 10.21% | 28.16% | 35.12% | 20.03% | 4.78% | 0.39% | N/A | 94.85% | 3.08% | 11.36% |
| Northwestern | 97 | 1.84 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.21% | 3.39% | 18.82% | 41.27% | 30.12% | 6.20% | 13.25% | * | 0.05% |
| Minnesota | 115 | 0.85 | N/A | N/A | 1 in 245k | 0.02% | 0.35% | 3.31% | 16.41% | 40.67% | 39.24% | 0.02% | * | * |
Michigan State is still ranked third in the ratings among the teams in the West (due to much weaker out-of-conference opposition than Nebraska or Michigan), but the fact that that loss is out of conference and our conference record is still unblemished gives us the edge. Nebraska and Iowa both have control of their own destinies as well; Michigan does not (they need us to lose at least twice). Northwestern's skid has left their bowl hopes in tatters.
East Division
| Team | Rank | Avg wins | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Bowl | Outright | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penn State | 15 | 6.04 | 7.35% | 26.92% | 36.13% | 22.48% | 6.45% | 0.66% | N/A | N/A | N/A | 100% | 31.38% | 55.95% |
| Wisconsin | 11 | 6.04 | 7.89% | 26.89% | 35.30% | 22.23% | 6.77% | 0.88% | 0.04% | N/A | N/A | 100% | 32.01% | 56.81% |
| Illinois | 25 | 4.96 | N/A | 5.71% | 24.53% | 37.59% | 24.92% | 6.71% | 0.55% | N/A | N/A | 100% | 6.50% | 20.02% |
| Ohio State | 42 | 3.50 | N/A | N/A | 1.98% | 13.75% | 33.70% | 35.07% | 14.08% | 1.43% | N/A | 84.50% | 0.22% | 2.34% |
| Purdue | 84 | 2.96 | N/A | 0.05% | 0.92% | 6.62% | 22.00% | 35.82% | 27.19% | 7.40% | N/A | 29.59% | 0.11% | 0.91% |
| Indiana | 110 | 1.17 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.03% | 0.68% | 6.43% | 26.00% | 42.84% | 24.03% | 0.03% | * | * |
Penn State actually has an infinitesimal lead in terms of average wins, largely due to not having had their bye week yet (thus three wins in the books rather than two). Illinois drops way back, and Ohio State's bowl chances are greatly improved by the road win against the Illini. Purdue has a tough fight ahead for bowl eligibility but it's not hopeless.
Projected Standings: Margin-Aware System
West Division
| Team | Rank | Avg wins | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Bowl | Outright | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan St | 20 | 5.98 | 5.09% | 24.60% | 39.89% | 24.68% | 5.42% | 0.32% | 1 in 18,900 | N/A | N/A | 99.99% | 29.34% | 60.34% |
| Michigan | 11 | 5.79 | N/A | 23.79% | 40.98% | 26.37% | 7.79% | 1.02% | 0.04% | N/A | N/A | 100% | 23.26% | 52.69% |
| Nebraska | 15 | 5.00 | N/A | 5.34% | 25.79% | 39.42% | 23.31% | 5.59% | 0.54% | 0.02% | N/A | 99.98% | 7.92% | 24.78% |
| Iowa | 49 | 4.16 | N/A | 0.91% | 8.45% | 27.12% | 37.28% | 21.63% | 4.34% | 0.27% | N/A | 95.39% | 2.13% | 8.99% |
| Northwestern | 81 | 2.00 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.26% | 4.40% | 22.62% | 43.46% | 26.10% | 3.16% | 20.81% | * | 0.04% |
| Minnesota | 115 | 0.53 | N/A | N/A | 1 in 9.60M | 1 in 86,500 | 0.05% | 0.86% | 7.81% | 34.11% | 57.17% | * | * | * |
The gap is somewhat closer here, in part because Wisconsin (ahead on MSU's schedule, not on Michigan's at all and already played by Nebraska) is rated much more highly. But the order is the same.
East Division
| Team | Rank | Avg wins | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Bowl | Outright | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin | 7 | 7.00 | 31.66% | 42.26% | 20.87% | 4.71% | 0.48% | 0.02% | 1 in 432k | N/A | N/A | 100% | 71.28% | 89.35% |
| Penn State | 26 | 5.61 | 1.86% | 16.76% | 36.53% | 31.61% | 11.69% | 1.54% | N/A | N/A | N/A | 100% | 8.70% | 24.31% |
| Illinois | 36 | 4.42 | N/A | 1.45% | 11.60% | 32.49% | 37.44% | 15.59% | 1.44% | N/A | N/A | 100% | 1.24% | 5.94% |
| Ohio State | 35 | 3.51 | N/A | N/A | 1.35% | 12.46% | 36.20% | 36.43% | 12.73% | 0.82% | N/A | 86.44% | 0.08% | 1.12% |
| Purdue | 74 | 2.98 | N/A | 0.01% | 0.54% | 6.27% | 23.16% | 36.96% | 26.33% | 6.72% | N/A | 29.98% | 0.03% | 0.33% |
| Indiana | 103 | 1.04 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1 in 15,500 | 0.28% | 4.03% | 23.01% | 45.00% | 27.68% | 0.01% | * | * |
Factor in Wisconsin's obscene margins of victory and Penn State's nailbiters and this race looks much less interesting.