When last we looked, the prediction was 10-11 wins and annoyance but no worries on Selection Sunday. Ah, for the good old days. Now: (data through Monday night)
| Pom Rank | Pom WPct | BT Rank | BT WPct | MABT Rank | MABT WPct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio St | 1 | 0.9811 | 1 | 0.9947 | 1 | 0.9872 |
| Purdue | 9 | 0.9530 | 14 | 0.9332 | 12 | 0.9615 |
| Wisconsin | 6 | 0.9652 | 16 | 0.9293 | 8 | 0.9659 |
| Minnesota | 42 | 0.8603 | 28 | 0.8983 | 33 | 0.9070 |
| Illinois | 15 | 0.9327 | 37 | 0.8771 | 16 | 0.9468 |
| Michigan St | 50 | 0.8402 | 44 | 0.8512 | 50 | 0.8643 |
| Michigan | 55 | 0.8317 | 47 | 0.8446 | 47 | 0.8732 |
| Northwestern | 47 | 0.8476 | 54 | 0.8328 | 39 | 0.8949 |
| Penn St | 57 | 0.8293 | 67 | 0.8136 | 58 | 0.8554 |
| Indiana | 64 | 0.8064 | 104 | 0.6914 | 86 | 0.7796 |
| Iowa | 80 | 0.7632 | 121 | 0.6307 | 104 | 0.7037 |
Pomeroy's numbers now rank the Big Ten as four elite teams, six bubble-level teams (Indiana's record isn't going to get them anywhere near it but their tempo-free numbers suggest that may be more a matter of getting stuck in a loaded conference than anything else), and Iowa as possibly worthy of a secondary postseason tournament (if not for the same problem Indiana has with the record not matching up). No-margin Bradley-Terry is much less impressed with the "I" schools but moves Minnesota up; throw the margin back in and it's Northwestern that benefits the most.
For purposes of projections, Purdue's win over Indiana tonight is included in the current record, but the ratings themselves do not include it. Home court advantage is not considered; this is a modification I want to make over the offseason. I'm leaving off title chances at this point, because honestly, it's going to be Ohio State.
Basic Bradley-Terry (W-L Only)
Splitting this up into separate sections so we can do full projections of final record; a table that goes all the way from 18-0 to 3-15 would be too wide to be of use.
The Presumptive Champion
| Team | WPct | Current | Average wins | 18-0 | 17-1 | 16-2 | 15-3 | 14-4 | 13-5 | 12-6 | 11-7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio St | 0.9947 | 11-0 | 17.70 | 73.39% | 23.35% | 3.04% | 0.21% | 1 in 12,400 | 1 in 570k | 1 in 50.9M | 1 in 11.6B |
Given that the odds are nearly 1 in 500 that Ohio State loses enough games to even conceivably end up in a tie, I think it's mostly safe to say they're going to win the title outright. Mostly. Once they lose once, we can re-evaluate.
The Distant Challengers
| Team | WPct | Current | Average wins | 15-3 | 14-4 | 13-5 | 12-6 | 11-7 | 10-8 | 9-9 | 8-10 | 7-11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Purdue | 0.9332 | 8-3 | 12.37 | 0.85% | 13.71% | 32.70% | 32.25% | 15.92% | 4.06% | 0.49% | 0.02% | N/A |
| Wisconsin | 0.9293 | 7-3 | 11.54 | 0.06% | 1.88% | 16.77% | 34.70% | 30.08% | 13.14% | 3.02% | 0.34% | 0.02% |
Wisconsin's upcoming trip to Mackey may decide second place, but both teams have several tough games ahead.
The Bubble Hopefuls
| Team | WPct | Current | Average wins | 13-5 | 12-6 | 11-7 | 10-8 | 9-9 | 8-10 | 7-11 | 6-12 | 5-13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 0.8983 | 5-6 | 9.60 | N/A | 4.99% | 19.04% | 30.60% | 26.80% | 13.76% | 4.12% | 0.66% | 0.04% |
| Illinois | 0.8771 | 5-5 | 8.85 | 0.04% | 1.22% | 7.69% | 21.27% | 30.99% | 25.07% | 11.08% | 2.44% | 0.21% |
| Michigan St | 0.8512 | 5-6 | 8.01 | N/A | 0.03% | 1.35% | 8.69% | 23.63% | 32.73% | 23.90% | 8.55% | 1.12% |
Well, that's ... depressing. If it's any comfort, the fact that we'll be home against Illinois, Purdue, and Penn State isn't factored in, so our chances may be a little better than this indicates, but a 1 in 3 shot at 9-9 or better and the tournament bid that would likely provide is not where any of us imagined we'd be three weeks ago.
The Long Shots
| Team | WPct | Current | Average wins | 12-6 | 11-7 | 10-8 | 9-9 | 8-10 | 7-11 | 6-12 | 5-13 | 4-14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northwestern | 0.8328 | 4-7 | 7.61 | N/A | 0.69% | 5.56% | 17.85% | 29.64% | 27.58% | 14.38% | 3.88% | 0.42% |
| Michigan | 0.8446 | 4-7 | 7.58 | N/A | 0.66% | 5.31% | 17.29% | 29.39% | 28.03% | 14.87% | 4.02% | 0.43% |
| Penn St | 0.8136 | 5-6 | 7.30 | 1 in 17,100 | 0.31% | 2.95% | 12.16% | 26.61% | 32.24% | 20.43% | 5.29% | N/A |
All three of these teams have the potential to make a run. Northwestern probably needs the strongest finish, as they lack any semblance of a non-conference schedule. Penn State's isn't good either, but Michigan could sneak in if they get to 9-9.
The Bottom Tier (Which Isn't Even Really That Bad)
| Team | WPct | Current | Average wins | 10-8 | 9-9 | 8-10 | 7-11 | 6-12 | 5-13 | 4-14 | 3-13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | 0.6307 | 3-8 | 4.30 | 1 in 182k | 0.02% | 0.28% | 2.15% | 9.83% | 26.28% | 38.17% | 23.27% |
| Indiana | 0.6914 | 3-9 | 4.14 | N/A | 1 in 195k | 0.05% | 0.94% | 6.81% | 24.08% | 41.08% | 27.05% |
Both teams look likely to scratch out one more win, but that's about it. And yet Pomeroy's ratings would put them in the middle of the pack in the ACC.
Margin-Aware Bradley-Terry
The Presumptive Champion
| Team | WPct | Current | Average wins | 18-0 | 17-1 | 16-2 | 15-3 | 14-4 | 13-5 | 12-6 | 11-7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio St | 0.9872 | 11-0 | 16.84 | 26.93% | 40.24% | 24.11% | 7.38% | 1.22% | 0.11% | 1 in 21,200 | 1 in 1.27M |
Not as prohibitive a favorite when considering margin, but there's still a better than 90% chance that they don't lose three games.
The Distant Challengers
| Team | WPct | Current | Average wins | 15-3 | 14-4 | 13-5 | 12-6 | 11-7 | 10-8 | 9-9 | 8-10 | 7-9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Purdue | 0.9615 | 8-3 | 12.47 | 2.49% | 15.29% | 32.08% | 31.10% | 15.06% | 3.58% | 0.39% | 0.02% | N/A |
| Wisconsin | 0.9659 | 7-3 | 12.28 | 1.61% | 11.73% | 30.01% | 33.12% | 17.71% | 5.00% | 0.76% | 0.06% | 1 in 59,500 |
The race is a little tighter here but Purdue's still the favorite for second place.
The Bubble Hopefuls
| Team | WPct | Current | Average wins | 13-5 | 12-6 | 11-7 | 10-8 | 9-9 | 8-10 | 7-11 | 6-12 | 5-13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois | 0.9468 | 5-5 | 9.84 | 0.82% | 7.18% | 21.91% | 31.92% | 24.72% | 10.62% | 2.51% | 0.30% | 0.01% |
| Minnesota | 0.9070 | 5-6 | 9.13 | N/A | 2.09% | 11.51% | 25.67% | 30.32% | 20.59% | 8.03% | 1.66% | 0.14% |
Notice somebody missing?
The Long Shots
| Team | WPct | Current | Average wins | 12-6 | 11-7 | 10-8 | 9-9 | 8-10 | 7-11 | 6-12 | 5-13 | 4-14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northwestern | 0.8949 | 4-7 | 7.92 | N/A | 1.15% | 8.44% | 22.91% | 31.29% | 23.72% | 10.08% | 2.23% | 0.20% |
| Michigan St | 0.8643 | 5-6 | 7.67 | 0.03% | 0.67% | 5.02% | 17.53% | 31.51% | 29.58% | 13.44% | 2.23% | N/A |
| Penn St | 0.8554 | 5-6 | 7.30 | 0.01% | 0.36% | 3.02% | 12.15% | 26.46% | 32.12% | 20.51% | 5.37% | N/A |
| Michigan | 0.8732 | 4-7 | 7.26 | N/A | 0.26% | 2.87% | 12.32% | 26.52% | 31.08% | 19.82% | 6.34% | 0.79% |
Given our non-conference schedule, I think our chances of getting into the tournament are much better than Northwestern's despite their better projected record (NW probably needs to go 10-8 in conference given their non-conference schedule, I'd feel fairly comfortable that MSU gets in at 9-9), but if I'm projecting the conference standings I can't in good conscience put us in a higher category than them.
The Worse-Than-Everybody-Else-But-Still-Not-Bad
| Team | WPct | Current | Average wins | 10-8 | 9-9 | 8-10 | 7-11 | 6-12 | 5-13 | 4-14 | 3-15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | 0.7037 | 3-8 | 4.22 | 1 in 425k | 0.01% | 0.18% | 1.63% | 8.48% | 25.08% | 39.30% | 25.31% |
| Indiana | 0.7796 | 3-9 | 4.08 | N/A | 1 in 100k | 0.05% | 0.76% | 5.84% | 22.62% | 41.75% | 28.99% |
Not much different than the no-margin rankings.
MSU Game Projections
No-margin rankings:
vs. PSU: 56.7%
@ OSU: 3.0%
vs. Illinois: 44.5%
@ Minnesota: 39.3%
vs. Purdue: 29.0%
vs. Iowa: 77.0%
@ Michigan: 51.3%
Margin-aware rankings:
vs. PSU: 51.9% (-0.5)
@ OSU: 7.7% (+14)
vs. Illinois: 26.4% (+6)
@ Minnesota: 39.5% (+2.5)
vs. Purdue: 20.3% (+7.5)
vs. Iowa: 72.8% (-5.5)
@ Michigan: 48.1% (+0.5)
Those four games in which we're mild underdogs (counting at Michigan) will have to provide two wins (along with not blowing the two in which we're favored) if we're going to keep the tournament streak alive.