I haven't updated these in a while, but with the tournament upon us now seems like a good time: Big Ten tournament odds, similar to Pomeroy's log5 breakdowns, based on the Bradley-Terry ratings.
Basic (W-L only) Ratings
| Team | Qtrs | Semis | Final | Champ |
| (1) OSU | ---- | 92.79% | 82.93% | 64.20% |
| (2) PUR | ---- | 79.04% | 46.14% | 15.65% |
| (3) WISC | ---- | 80.58% | 42.53% | 13.47% |
| (4) MICH | ---- | 48.09% | 6.64% | 1.95% |
| (5) ILL | ---- | 51.91% | 7.58% | 2.35% |
| (6) PSU | 76.87% | 17.53% | 4.61% | 0.66% |
| (7) MSU | 80.99% | 19.63% | 6.39% | 1.06% |
| (8) NW | 48.18% | 3.35% | 1.29% | 0.28% |
| (9) MINN | 51.82% | 3.85% | 1.56% | 0.36% |
| (10) IOWA | 19.01% | 1.33% | 0.15% | 0.008% |
| (11) IND | 23.13% | 1.89% | 0.20% | 0.011% |
Nothing terribly shocking here, of course.
Margin-Aware Ratings
| Team | Qtrs | Semis | Final | Champ |
| (1) OSU | ---- | 91.97% | 78.85% | 55.66% |
| (2) PUR | ---- | 86.54% | 55.30% | 23.81% |
| (3) WISC | ---- | 83.91% | 38.48% | 13.54% |
| (4) MICH | ---- | 37.81% | 5.47% | 1.30% |
| (5) ILL | ---- | 62.19% | 12.86% | 4.28% |
| (6) PSU | 70.30% | 13.41% | 2.49% | 0.34% |
| (7) MSU | 76.51% | 12.17% | 3.34% | 0.51% |
| (8) NW | 46.77% | 3.52% | 1.18% | 0.21% |
| (9) MINN | 53.23% | 4.52% | 1.64% | 0.32% |
| (10) IOWA | 23.49% | 1.29% | 0.15% | 0.009% |
| (11) IND | 29.70% | 2.69% | 0.25% | 0.017% |
Biggest difference is that the margin-aware system views Illinois much more favorably; they've had a tendency to lose a lot of close games this year.