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Big Ten Tournament Odds, Bradley-Terry Style

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I haven't updated these in a while, but with the tournament upon us now seems like a good time: Big Ten tournament odds, similar to Pomeroy's log5 breakdowns, based on the Bradley-Terry ratings.

Basic (W-L only) Ratings

Team Qtrs Semis Final Champ
(1) OSU ---- 92.79% 82.93% 64.20%
(2) PUR ---- 79.04% 46.14% 15.65%
(3) WISC ---- 80.58% 42.53% 13.47%
(4) MICH ---- 48.09% 6.64% 1.95%
(5) ILL ---- 51.91% 7.58% 2.35%
(6) PSU 76.87% 17.53% 4.61% 0.66%
(7) MSU 80.99% 19.63% 6.39% 1.06%
(8) NW 48.18% 3.35% 1.29% 0.28%
(9) MINN 51.82% 3.85% 1.56% 0.36%
(10) IOWA 19.01% 1.33% 0.15% 0.008%
(11) IND 23.13% 1.89% 0.20% 0.011%

 

Nothing terribly shocking here, of course.

Margin-Aware Ratings

Team Qtrs Semis Final Champ
(1) OSU ---- 91.97% 78.85% 55.66%
(2) PUR ---- 86.54% 55.30% 23.81%
(3) WISC ---- 83.91% 38.48% 13.54%
(4) MICH ---- 37.81% 5.47% 1.30%
(5) ILL ---- 62.19% 12.86% 4.28%
(6) PSU 70.30% 13.41% 2.49% 0.34%
(7) MSU 76.51% 12.17% 3.34% 0.51%
(8) NW 46.77% 3.52% 1.18% 0.21%
(9) MINN 53.23% 4.52% 1.64% 0.32%
(10) IOWA 23.49% 1.29% 0.15% 0.009%
(11) IND 29.70% 2.69% 0.25% 0.017%

 

Biggest difference is that the margin-aware system views Illinois much more favorably; they've had a tendency to lose a lot of close games this year.