Need some help with your bracket? You're probably familiar with the odds tables Ken Pomeroy and the rest of the Basketball Prospectus crew post for conference tournaments and the NCAA tourney based on Pomeroy's rankings. For the second year running, I'm doing the same using the Bradley-Terry ratings. This year you'll get two tables: one with the basic method (which ignores margin of victory) and one with the modified, margin-aware method (which uses margin converted to a logistic scale, to avoid having one massive blowout mask several close losses).
See the numbers after the jump.
Basic Method
As a reminder, for calculating game odds, Team A's chances of beating Team B are (rating of team A) / (rating of team A + rating of team B).
| Team | Seed | Rating | Round of 64 | Round of 32 | Sweet 16 | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Title Game | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio St | E1 | 70.435 | ---- | 99.32% | 87.87% | 75.48% | 60.54% | 38.83% | 24.95% |
| Kansas | SW1 | 67.049 | ---- | 98.28% | 84.93% | 69.72% | 51.67% | 37.07% | 21.53% |
| San Diego St | W2 | 62.156 | ---- | 97.82% | 85.85% | 65.41% | 47.24% | 28.02% | 17.24% |
| Pittsburgh | SE1 | 34.313 | ---- | 97.61% | 76.60% | 55.17% | 33.14% | 15.48% | 6.59% |
| BYU | SE3 | 35.064 | ---- | 94.72% | 72.97% | 53.58% | 32.40% | 15.29% | 6.59% |
| Duke | W1 | 32.757 | ---- | 96.47% | 79.42% | 54.45% | 24.29% | 11.00% | 5.14% |
| Notre Dame | SW2 | 32.858 | ---- | 94.50% | 73.99% | 49.26% | 21.59% | 12.12% | 5.04% |
| Syracuse | E3 | 23.375 | ---- | 91.68% | 66.73% | 43.41% | 15.29% | 5.96% | 2.33% |
| UConn | W3 | 24.283 | ---- | 89.78% | 57.79% | 19.98% | 10.29% | 4.00% | 1.60% |
| Texas | W4 | 20.619 | ---- | 84.46% | 58.30% | 26.86% | 9.29% | 3.30% | 1.20% |
| N Carolina | E2 | 18.097 | ---- | 84.88% | 62.45% | 32.41% | 9.87% | 3.30% | 1.11% |
| Louisville | SW4 | 18.890 | ---- | 91.39% | 62.77% | 17.75% | 8.14% | 3.51% | 1.05% |
| Purdue | SW3 | 18.816 | ---- | 91.52% | 54.71% | 24.34% | 7.88% | 3.39% | 1.01% |
| Florida | SE2 | 16.259 | ---- | 94.68% | 65.78% | 25.99% | 11.08% | 3.41% | 0.92% |
| Wisconsin | SE4 | 16.775 | ---- | 74.36% | 43.55% | 17.35% | 7.56% | 2.37% | 0.66% |
| Georgetown | SW6 | 15.989 | ---- | 79.51% | 39.51% | 16.13% | 4.73% | 1.86% | 0.50% |
| Kentucky | E4 | 14.486 | ---- | 73.73% | 44.45% | 9.96% | 4.68% | 1.36% | 0.39% |
| Cincinnati | W6 | 16.406 | ---- | 64.51% | 29.00% | 7.90% | 3.34% | 1.04% | 0.33% |
| Utah St | SE12 | 13.346 | ---- | 56.85% | 28.90% | 10.08% | 3.88% | 1.05% | 0.25% |
| St John's | SE6 | 12.800 | ---- | 66.74% | 19.96% | 10.20% | 3.80% | 1.00% | 0.23% |
| West Virginia | E5 | 11.879 | ---- | 66.80% | 34.43% | 6.72% | 2.84% | 0.72% | 0.18% |
| Old Dominion | SE9 | 11.623 | ---- | 69.70% | 18.77% | 8.84% | 3.14% | 0.77% | 0.16% |
| UNLV | SW8 | 12.537 | ---- | 63.02% | 10.75% | 5.11% | 1.86% | 0.63% | 0.14% |
| Arizona | W5 | 11.152 | ---- | 63.33% | 26.12% | 8.59% | 1.99% | 0.49% | 0.12% |
| Texas A&M | SW7 | 10.954 | ---- | 63.85% | 18.08% | 7.33% | 1.68% | 0.52% | 0.11% |
| Kansas St | SE5 | 10.131 | ---- | 43.15% | 19.13% | 5.61% | 1.83% | 0.41% | 0.08% |
| Villanova | E9 | 10.121 | ---- | 55.75% | 7.31% | 3.49% | 1.35% | 0.31% | 0.07% |
| Xavier | E6 | 9.2460 | ---- | 53.04% | 17.37% | 7.63% | 1.51% | 0.32% | 0.07% |
| Temple | W7 | 9.7828 | ---- | 57.64% | 8.77% | 3.05% | 0.95% | 0.21% | 0.05% |
| Vanderbilt | SW5 | 8.8802 | ---- | 51.58% | 18.77% | 3.16% | 0.92% | 0.25% | 0.04% |
| Marquette | E11 | 8.1865 | ---- | 46.96% | 14.27% | 5.88% | 1.07% | 0.21% | 0.04% |
| Michigan St | SE10 | 7.6493 | ---- | 53.76% | 18.84% | 4.64% | 1.24% | 0.23% | 0.03% |
| Richmond | SW12 | 8.3354 | ---- | 48.42% | 16.98% | 2.72% | 0.76% | 0.20% | 0.03% |
| Michigan | W8 | 7.9368 | ---- | 57.50% | 12.58% | 4.56% | 0.83% | 0.16% | 0.03% |
| Missouri | W11 | 9.0248 | ---- | 35.49% | 11.41% | 2.07% | 0.61% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| George Mason | E8 | 8.0342 | ---- | 44.25% | 4.78% | 2.02% | 0.68% | 0.13% | 0.02% |
| Washington | E7 | 6.8548 | ---- | 52.87% | 17.77% | 5.38% | 0.86% | 0.15% | 0.02% |
| UCLA | SE7 | 6.5790 | ---- | 46.24% | 14.77% | 3.27% | 0.79% | 0.13% | 0.02% |
| Georgia | E10 | 6.1096 | ---- | 47.13% | 14.76% | 4.14% | 0.61% | 0.09% | 0.01% |
| Illinois | SW9 | 7.3552 | ---- | 36.98% | 4.14% | 1.46% | 0.37% | 0.09% | 0.01% |
| Penn St | W10 | 7.1906 | ---- | 42.36% | 5.07% | 1.44% | 0.37% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| Gonzaga | SE11 | 6.3784 | ---- | 33.26% | 6.19% | 2.16% | 0.51% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| Memphis | W12 | 6.4571 | ---- | 36.67% | 10.98% | 2.53% | 0.39% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| Florida St | SW10 | 6.2005 | ---- | 36.15% | 6.94% | 1.96% | 0.30% | 0.06% | 1 / 12,300 |
| Tennessee | W9 | 5.8652 | ---- | 42.50% | 7.47% | 2.24% | 0.32% | 0.05% | 1 / 13,700 |
| Belmont | SE13 | 5.7836 | ---- | 25.64% | 8.43% | 1.67% | 0.37% | 0.05% | 1 / 15,000 |
| Clemson | E12 (P) | 5.9823 | 50.68% | 16.97% | 6.05% | 0.71% | 0.20% | 0.03% | 1 / 22,400 |
| Princeton | E13 | 5.1602 | ---- | 26.27% | 9.38% | 0.97% | 0.24% | 0.03% | 1 / 22,900 |
| UAB | E12 (P) | 5.8219 | 49.32% | 16.22% | 5.69% | 0.65% | 0.18% | 0.03% | 1 / 25,900 |
| Butler | SE8 | 5.0516 | ---- | 30.30% | 4.42% | 1.25% | 0.25% | 0.03% | 1 / 27,700 |
| VCU | SW11 (P) | 4.4002 | 53.62% | 11.57% | 2.71% | 0.47% | 0.05% | 1 / 11,500 | 1 / 117k |
| Oakland | W13 | 3.7933 | ---- | 15.54% | 4.61% | 0.72% | 0.07% | 1 / 12,900 | 1 / 125k |
| Long Island | E15 | 3.2241 | ---- | 15.12% | 5.02% | 0.88% | 0.08% | 1 / 14,300 | 1 / 160k |
| USC | SW11 (P) | 3.8066 | 46.38% | 8.92% | 1.89% | 0.30% | 0.03% | 1 / 23,300 | 1 / 270k |
| Bucknell | W14 | 2.7639 | ---- | 10.22% | 1.80% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 1 / 77,100 | 1 / 991k |
| Indiana St | E14 | 2.1206 | ---- | 8.32% | 1.63% | 0.27% | 0.02% | 1 / 97,400 | 1 / 1.59M |
| Wofford | SE14 | 1.9547 | ---- | 5.28% | 0.88% | 0.13% | 0.01% | 1 / 150k | 1 / 3.19M |
| Akron | SW15 | 1.9128 | ---- | 5.50% | 0.99% | 0.11% | 1 / 15,700 | 1 / 202k | 1 / 4.37M |
| Morehead St | SW13 | 1.7795 | ---- | 8.61% | 1.47% | 0.07% | 1 / 18,900 | 1 / 260k | 1 / 6.00M |
| St Peter's | SW14 | 1.7443 | ---- | 8.48% | 1.18% | 0.10% | 1 / 19,800 | 1 / 277k | 1 / 6.52M |
| N Colorado | W15 | 1.3871 | ---- | 2.18% | 0.31% | 0.02% | 1 / 65,800 | 1 / 1.48M | 1 / 35.8M |
| Hampton | W16 | 1.1991 | ---- | 3.53% | 0.52% | 0.04% | 1 / 63,100 | 1 / 1.62M | 1 / 45.1M |
| Boston U | SW16 | 1.1768 | ---- | 1.72% | 0.18% | 0.02% | 1 / 117k | 1 / 2.34M | 1 / 80.0M |
| Santa Barbara | SE15 | 0.91441 | ---- | 5.32% | 0.61% | 0.03% | 1 / 86,200 | 1 / 3.08M | 1 / 134M |
| NC Asheville | SE16 (P) | 0.91130 | 54.57% | 1.41% | 0.14% | 1 / 10,700 | 1 / 231k | 1 / 8.31M | 1 / 363M |
| AR Little Rock | SE16 (P) | 0.75856 | 45.43% | 0.98% | 0.08% | 1 / 21,500 | 1 / 552k | 1 / 23.6M | 1 / 1.23B |
| UTSA | E16 (P) | 0.57631 | 74.73% | 0.61% | 0.04% | 1 / 52,300 | 1 / 1.36M | 1 / 75.5M | 1 / 4.26B |
| Alabama St | E16 (P) | 0.19488 | 25.27% | 0.07% | 1 / 68,300 | 1 / 3.67M | 1 / 272M | 1 / 43.8B | 1 / 7.17T |
- San Diego State is one of three teams with a huge lead in the ratings (1-2 against BYU and perfect against everyone else); they're actually considered about 3 times as likely to win it all as the 1 seed in their region.
- The West is stacked; four of the top ten are in that region.
- Utah State seems criminally underseeded; they're 19th most likely to win it all even coming from the 12 spot and have a 4% chance of topping George Mason's famous run.
- The Big Ten bubble teams ranked 35th, 36th, 37th, and 38th in the ratings, so their relative placements in the table here are a pretty good indication of the ease of paths. We and (surprisingly) Michigan got fairly easy paths (yes, they have to get past Duke but they have reasonable chances thereafter); Illinois and Penn State have tougher roads.
- The following lower seeds are favored in the round of 64: Utah State, Old Dominion, Villanova, MSU.
- Alabama State: ouch. More than a thousand times less likely to win it all than anyone else.
Margin-Aware Method
For the margin-aware method, the formula is similar but with the ratings raised to the 1.5 power before computing the win percentage.
| Team | Seed | Rating | Round of 64 | Round of 32 | Sweet 16 | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Title Game | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio St | E1 | 18.350 | ---- | 99.43% | 85.75% | 66.74% | 53.64% | 35.32% | 23.65% |
| Duke | W1 | 15.492 | ---- | 98.76% | 85.94% | 58.05% | 41.32% | 23.85% | 14.63% |
| Kansas | SW1 | 14.914 | ---- | 98.23% | 79.64% | 60.73% | 41.22% | 26.44% | 14.31% |
| Pittsburgh | SE1 | 13.635 | ---- | 98.29% | 85.72% | 62.76% | 45.12% | 26.18% | 13.35% |
| Texas | W4 | 11.712 | ---- | 88.88% | 68.93% | 31.38% | 19.50% | 9.44% | 4.86% |
| Purdue | SW3 | 10.437 | ---- | 95.95% | 68.92% | 41.38% | 19.93% | 10.35% | 4.31% |
| San Diego St | W2 | 10.234 | ---- | 95.92% | 74.05% | 46.25% | 19.51% | 8.56% | 4.00% |
| BYU | SE3 | 9.2990 | ---- | 92.94% | 67.41% | 45.75% | 20.77% | 9.25% | 3.50% |
| Notre Dame | SW2 | 9.6695 | ---- | 94.39% | 70.43% | 37.71% | 17.18% | 8.46% | 3.31% |
| Kentucky | E4 | 9.4017 | ---- | 89.29% | 60.29% | 19.82% | 11.97% | 5.10% | 2.23% |
| Syracuse | E3 | 8.3837 | ---- | 93.11% | 64.18% | 38.00% | 12.66% | 4.90% | 1.94% |
| Wisconsin | SE4 | 8.7152 | ---- | 78.02% | 51.88% | 20.80% | 11.92% | 5.04% | 1.80% |
| UConn | W3 | 8.3268 | ---- | 90.37% | 55.27% | 27.58% | 9.73% | 3.63% | 1.43% |
| Louisville | SW4 | 8.0469 | ---- | 91.69% | 60.54% | 21.45% | 9.93% | 4.26% | 1.41% |
| N Carolina | E2 | 7.3863 | ---- | 87.50% | 53.27% | 27.92% | 8.27% | 2.85% | 1.01% |
| Florida | SE2 | 6.7597 | ---- | 92.46% | 63.76% | 29.47% | 10.27% | 3.47% | 0.97% |
| Washington | E7 | 6.4613 | ---- | 75.52% | 37.77% | 17.98% | 4.67% | 1.42% | 0.44% |
| Cincinnati | W6 | 6.9154 | ---- | 61.65% | 29.20% | 12.69% | 3.76% | 1.19% | 0.40% |
| Georgetown | SW6 | 6.4518 | ---- | 75.40% | 26.47% | 11.45% | 3.72% | 1.32% | 0.35% |
| West Virginia | E5 | 6.5013 | ---- | 64.93% | 26.92% | 6.19% | 2.91% | 0.89% | 0.28% |
| Arizona | W5 | 5.8484 | ---- | 79.55% | 24.97% | 6.18% | 2.32% | 0.62% | 0.18% |
| St John's | SE6 | 5.3713 | ---- | 59.47% | 20.44% | 10.00% | 2.80% | 0.76% | 0.17% |
| Illinois | SW9 | 5.9548 | ---- | 54.39% | 11.66% | 5.33% | 1.91% | 0.63% | 0.15% |
| Utah St | SE12 | 5.6152 | ---- | 51.34% | 20.96% | 5.69% | 2.37% | 0.67% | 0.15% |
| Villanova | E9 | 5.9587 | ---- | 59.98% | 9.64% | 3.94% | 1.73% | 0.48% | 0.14% |
| Marquette | E11 | 5.3585 | ---- | 57.58% | 21.60% | 9.32% | 1.99% | 0.50% | 0.13% |
| Vanderbilt | SW5 | 5.5083 | ---- | 55.46% | 22.36% | 5.50% | 1.83% | 0.56% | 0.13% |
| Kansas St | SE5 | 5.4175 | ---- | 48.66% | 19.28% | 5.05% | 2.04% | 0.56% | 0.12% |
| UNLV | SW8 | 5.2957 | ---- | 45.61% | 8.57% | 3.56% | 1.14% | 0.34% | 0.07% |
| Texas A&M | SW7 | 4.9490 | ---- | 54.09% | 16.29% | 5.01% | 1.25% | 0.34% | 0.07% |
| Temple | W7 | 4.9448 | ---- | 58.02% | 16.10% | 5.87% | 1.22% | 0.28% | 0.07% |
| Missouri | W11 | 5.0399 | ---- | 38.35% | 14.11% | 4.67% | 0.99% | 0.23% | 0.06% |
| Richmond | SW12 | 4.7595 | ---- | 44.54% | 15.86% | 3.34% | 0.96% | 0.25% | 0.05% |
| Michigan St | SE10 | 4.1419 | ---- | 53.45% | 19.46% | 5.86% | 1.25% | 0.25% | 0.04% |
| Michigan | W8 | 4.7300 | ---- | 57.69% | 8.89% | 2.57% | 0.79% | 0.17% | 0.04% |
| Xavier | E6 | 4.3705 | ---- | 42.42% | 13.24% | 4.79% | 0.82% | 0.16% | 0.03% |
| Florida St | SW10 | 4.4367 | ---- | 45.91% | 12.44% | 3.42% | 0.76% | 0.19% | 0.03% |
| Clemson | E12 (P) | 4.9749 | 66.85% | 26.80% | 8.84% | 1.52% | 0.57% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| Gonzaga | SE11 | 4.1596 | ---- | 40.53% | 10.96% | 4.37% | 0.94% | 0.19% | 0.03% |
| Old Dominion | SE9 | 4.0818 | ---- | 56.73% | 8.72% | 2.83% | 0.88% | 0.18% | 0.03% |
| George Mason | E8 | 4.5495 | ---- | 40.02% | 4.59% | 1.47% | 0.51% | 0.11% | 0.02% |
| UCLA | SE7 | 3.7775 | ---- | 46.55% | 15.62% | 4.29% | 0.83% | 0.15% | 0.02% |
| Penn St | W10 | 3.9849 | ---- | 41.98% | 9.33% | 2.75% | 0.45% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| Belmont | SE13 | 3.7448 | ---- | 21.98% | 7.88% | 1.41% | 0.40% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| Tennessee | W9 | 3.8465 | ---- | 42.31% | 5.08% | 1.19% | 0.29% | 0.05% | 1 / 11,200 |
| Butler | SE8 | 3.4071 | ---- | 43.27% | 5.37% | 1.45% | 0.38% | 0.06% | 1 / 12,900 |
| USC | SW11 (P) | 3.4467 | 62.98% | 17.68% | 3.29% | 0.79% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 1 / 31,300 |
| Georgia | E10 | 3.0492 | ---- | 24.48% | 6.48% | 1.53% | 0.17% | 0.02% | 1 / 34,100 |
| Oakland | W13 | 2.9299 | ---- | 11.12% | 3.63% | 0.42% | 0.08% | 1 / 10,600 | 1 / 83,700 |
| UAB | E12 (P) | 3.1169 | 33.15% | 8.26% | 1.73% | 0.17% | 0.04% | 1 / 18,800 | 1 / 137k |
| Memphis | W12 | 2.3647 | ---- | 20.45% | 2.47% | 0.22% | 0.03% | 1 / 34,700 | 1 / 361k |
| Princeton | E13 | 2.2865 | ---- | 10.71% | 2.22% | 0.15% | 0.02% | 1 / 46,600 | 1 / 507k |
| VCU | SW11 (P) | 2.4188 | 37.02% | 6.91% | 0.87% | 0.14% | 0.02% | 1 / 54,400 | 1 / 663k |
| Long Island | E15 | 2.0184 | ---- | 12.50% | 2.47% | 0.36% | 0.02% | 1 / 56,700 | 1 / 728k |
| Bucknell | W14 | 1.8719 | ---- | 9.63% | 1.41% | 0.16% | 1 / 10,300 | 1 / 149k | 1 / 2.12M |
| Wofford | SE14 | 1.6675 | ---- | 7.06% | 1.20% | 0.18% | 0.01% | 1 / 124k | 1 / 2.51M |
| Morehead St | SW13 | 1.6230 | ---- | 8.31% | 1.25% | 0.07% | 1 / 18,500 | 1 / 259k | 1 / 5.45M |
| Indiana St | E14 | 1.4772 | ---- | 6.89% | 0.98% | 0.10% | 1 / 22,600 | 1 / 460k | 1 / 9.10M |
| Akron | SW15 | 1.4724 | ---- | 5.61% | 0.84% | 0.06% | 1 / 29,100 | 1 / 464k | 1 / 11.2M |
| Santa Barbara | SE15 | 1.2708 | ---- | 7.54% | 1.16% | 0.09% | 1 / 24,100 | 1 / 555k | 1 / 16.5M |
| St Peter's | SW14 | 1.2651 | ---- | 4.05% | 0.45% | 0.03% | 1 / 69,000 | 1 / 1.36M | 1 / 40.8M |
| N Colorado | W15 | 1.2477 | ---- | 4.08% | 0.52% | 0.04% | 1 / 75,400 | 1 / 1.91M | 1 / 47.9M |
| NC Asheville | SE16 (P) | 1.0246 | 63.40% | 1.28% | 0.16% | 1 / 10,500 | 1 / 182k | 1 / 5.68M | 1 / 231M |
| Boston U | SW16 | 1.0247 | ---- | 1.77% | 0.13% | 1 / 12,800 | 1 / 309k | 1 / 8.21M | 1 / 333M |
| Hampton | W16 | 0.83525 | ---- | 1.24% | 0.10% | 1 / 29,600 | 1 / 874k | 1 / 39.3M | 1 / 1.76B |
| AR Little Rock | SE16 (P) | 0.71043 | 36.60% | 0.43% | 0.03% | 1 / 85,900 | 1 / 2.50M | 1 / 133M | 1 / 9.20B |
| UTSA | E16 (P) | 0.65806 | 76.94% | 0.52% | 0.02% | 1 / 164k | 1 / 5.51M | 1 / 360M | 1 / 22.8B |
| Alabama St | E16 (P) | 0.29470 | 23.06% | 0.05% | 1 / 164k | 1 / 19.0M | 1 / 2.07B | 1 / 445B | 1 / 92.7T |
- Here the surprisingly high team is Texas; they're ahead of all the 2 and 3 seeds.
- This method is slightly less impressed with UConn, but the West still has three of the top 7.
- Utah State isn't quite as badly jobbed according to this, but they're still clearly better than a 12.
- Low seeds favored in the round of 64: Illinois, Utah St, Villanova, Marquette, and MSU.
- Alabama State: double ouch. If you played 20 different Powerball tickets two drawings in a row, you would be as likely to win the jackpot both times as Alabama State is to win seven games and the title.