clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Selection Show Open Thread

New, 305 comments
Getty Images


With the double championship in the nation's strongest conference and nine RPI top 25 wins, our case for a 1 seed is a strong one. The sheer number of losses could be a negative factor, but Kansas only has one fewer, four fewer top 25 wins, and failed to "do the double"; Missouri's non-conference schedule was an abomination, and North Carolina has half as many top 25 wins. I don't think more than one will be placed ahead of us.

The locations of the 1 seeds is an interesting debate: where Kentucky (the overall #1, most likely) goes may be decided by who is #3. Kentucky is virtually equidistant from Atlanta and St. Louis, and presumed #2 Syracuse will be in Boston. If #3 is North Carolina, they would prefer Atlanta, so Kentucky would probably go to St. Louis; if the #3 is Kansas or us, Kentucky will go to Atlanta and the #3 will be in St. Louis. If we are in St. Louis, our #2 seed will likely be Kansas (if they do not get the fourth 1 seed) or Missouri (if Kansas does). If we are out west in Phoenix, who knows? If the third #1 seed is Kansas, Missouri would probably get pushed out west with us; if it's North Carolina, one of Kansas and Missouri will probably join us out west while the other sits in the Midwest with Kentucky.

In the unlikely event that we get a 2 seed, the question becomes one of bracket balance (S-Curve) versus preferred location. If the #3 overall is Kansas, we're almost certainly in the Midwest with them; if it's North Carolina, Kentucky will be in the Midwest and putting us with them would skew the S-Curve with #1 and #5 there (the committee does try to keep it reasonably balanced, although a perfect 1-8, 4-5, 2-7, 3-6 is not necessary). We might get pushed out west instead with presumed #4 Kansas for balance reasons, or wind up in Atlanta with North Carolina (less travel, still reasonable balance).

My guess: #1 in St. Louis, with Missouri as the #2. Kansas out west as the #1 with OSU out there, UNC in Boston with Syracuse, Duke with Kentucky in Atlanta. Your thoughts, and the selection show rundown, here.