Therapy By Numbers: Conference-Only Big Ten PORPAG

Points Over Replacement Per Adjusted Game (PORPAG):

• Estimates the average number of points a player has produced above "replacement level" in a typical game--i.e. what the 10th guy on an average team would get you if you had to use him instead.
• Like all basketball statistics, occurs within the context of a team dynamic (particularly true for low-usage guys).
• Tells you absolutely nothing about a player's defensive performance.

The numbers below are based on conference-only data from StatSheet. Replacement level is set at 88.0; pace is set at 62 possessions/game; minimum minute percentage of 40.0%. Last year's numbers, along with links to previous PORPAG posts, are here. Data dump after the jump. (Also: Drew Cannon at BP has made an interesting adjustment for replacement value based on usage rate. I haven't attempted anything like that here. Just making the adjustment intuitively.)

It was a pretty balanced year at the top--nothing approaching a 2011 Jordan Taylor explosion. And I think you particularly have to discount some of the numbers at the top of the rankings for (1) defense and (2) performance in key games/situations. Hence, the following TOC all-Big Ten first team:

First Team: Taylor, Burke, Hummel, Green, Sullinger

• Burke should be freshman of the year IMO. He and Zeller were both the key offensive performers on their teams, but Michigan won two more games than IU did, and I think it's hard to argue that Burke had more talent around him (particularly considering Hardaway's decidedly mediocre numbers above).
• Hummel edges out Shurna based on defense, sentimentality, and bitterness about Shurna coming up one shot short vs. Michigan (twice) and Ohio State.
• Sullinger over Zeller based on defensive rebounding.
• Draymond Green will be your Big Ten Player of the Year. In addition to his offensive numbers, he ranks first in the conference in defensive rebounding percentage and seventh in steal percentage.
  

Second Team: Frazier, Craft, Gatens, Shurna, Zeller

Largely consistent with the numbers, but accounting for Craft's D--which may be referee-enhanced but is difference-making nonetheless. He'll be the defensive player of the year in a landslide, i"m sure.

Third Team: Appling, Jackson, Buford, Crawford, Leonard

A bit of a homer pick with Appling, but I think his defense warrants it. Buford over Thomas because (1) Thomas is the kind of super-talented guy you don't actually want on your team because he takes bad shots at the wrong times and has only a passing interest in playing defense and (2) this.

Zack Novak, low usage rate and all, would go on the third team instead of Leonard if we didn't need a center.

So, speaking of "this." The sharing-a-title-with-an-in-state-rival-you-outperformed-by-6.7-points-per-game-against-a-tougher-schedule thing definitely sucks, but it's obviously the Dawson injury that has us all moping around today. While Dawson's offensive contributions had dwindled of late, anything that reduces your depth going into the tournament is a bad thing. And he was a player that would have given MSU the ability to match up athletically against other top-ten teams in the later rounds of the tournament. I'm not worried about seeding--there's little difference between the paths a 2-seed and a 3-seed need to maneuver through to get to the Final Four. I'm worried about Dawson being absent from the group of players trying to do that maneuvering.

MSU ends the regular season with a depth ratio of 2.80, which is right in the range of Spartan teams of Final Fours past. But with Dawson out and Trice's ankle injury looking like it's going to linger, depth is not an asset at the moment. Brandan Kearney is a capable ball-handler and defender, but he's a non-factor offensively. He hasn't scored a point in his last 85 minutes on the court, covering 8 games. Expect to see more of Russell Byrd in Indy, as he at least provides a different kind of threat that defenses have to keep track of.

Otherwise, we're basically down to a single lineup of players that add value on both ends: Appling, Wood, Thornton, Green, Payne/Nix. (Derrick Payne yesterday, by the way: 19 points, 7 rebounds, 6 blocks--against the best center in the league. The development of those two players remains the biggest storyline of the year.) That's still a very good starting lineup, and you can never discount a Tom Izzo team in March, but it's going to take more good breaks along the way now. (If we can get just half the number we got in 2010 after Lucas went out for the season, we'll be in good shape.)

I'm sorry, our time is up now.