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Big Ten Bradley-Terry Bracket Odds


Want a look at what the math says about the Big Ten tournament before you fill out your bracket? Ken Pomeroy has run the numbers using his rating system, and I am doing the same for mine. (Pomeroy gave Indiana semi-home advantage; I'm giving Purdue semi-home advantage as well.)

No-Margin System

Team Qtrs Semis Final Champ
(1) Michigan State 100% 81.78% 42.77% 23.88%
(3) Ohio State 100% 69.11% 44.09% 23.42%
(5) Indiana 91.35% 57.86% 34.24% 20.34%
(2) Michigan 100% 72.23% 33.87% 15.23%
(4) Wisconsin 100% 40.93% 19.03% 8.80%
(6) Purdue 82.45% 29.06% 14.40% 5.55%
(7) Northwestern 58.17% 17.74% 5.05% 1.36%
(9) Illinois 59.98% 12.33% 2.80% 0.71%
(10) Minnesota 41.83% 10.03% 2.25% 0.47%
(8) Iowa 40.02% 5.89% 0.98% 0.18%
(11) Nebraska 17.55% 1.82% 0.33% 0.04%
(12) Penn State 8.65% 1.22% 0.17% 0.02%

Our half of the bracket is a little tougher, as Indiana is actually the highest-rated team after giving them half of home court. OSU, MSU, and Indiana are co-favorites, with Michigan not far behind and Wisconsin and Purdue both with sizable chances of winning as well. Northwestern can possibly stake a claim to a seventh bid for the conference with an opening-round win, certainly by reaching the semifinals (which they have slightly better than a 1 in 6 chance of doing).

Margin-Aware System

Team Qtrs Semis Final Champ
(1) Michigan State 100% 91.98% 55.32% 34.79%
(3) Ohio State 100% 76.04% 56.96% 29.15%
(5) Indiana 95.18% 62.27% 30.62% 18.04%
(2) Michigan 100% 72.65% 25.68% 7.91%
(4) Wisconsin 100% 37.31% 13.02% 5.75%
(6) Purdue 88.89% 23.49% 12.36% 3.45%
(7) Northwestern 58.46% 17.61% 3.48% 0.57%
(10) Minnesota 41.54% 9.74% 1.47% 0.18%
(9) Illinois 60.73% 5.60% 0.78% 0.13%
(8) Iowa 39.27% 2.42% 0.23% 0.03%
(11) Nebraska 11.11% 0.48% 0.06% 0.003%
(12) Penn State 4.82% 0.42% 0.03% 0.002%

Michigan State and Ohio State both make a bit of a leap forward in this system, Michigan drops back, and a large chunk of the remaining movement is a question of how early you meet one of those three teams.