Want a look at what the math says about the Big Ten tournament before you fill out your bracket? Ken Pomeroy has run the numbers using his rating system, and I am doing the same for mine. (Pomeroy gave Indiana semi-home advantage; I'm giving Purdue semi-home advantage as well.)
No-Margin System
| Team | Qtrs | Semis | Final | Champ |
| (1) Michigan State | 100% | 81.78% | 42.77% | 23.88% |
| (3) Ohio State | 100% | 69.11% | 44.09% | 23.42% |
| (5) Indiana | 91.35% | 57.86% | 34.24% | 20.34% |
| (2) Michigan | 100% | 72.23% | 33.87% | 15.23% |
| (4) Wisconsin | 100% | 40.93% | 19.03% | 8.80% |
| (6) Purdue | 82.45% | 29.06% | 14.40% | 5.55% |
| (7) Northwestern | 58.17% | 17.74% | 5.05% | 1.36% |
| (9) Illinois | 59.98% | 12.33% | 2.80% | 0.71% |
| (10) Minnesota | 41.83% | 10.03% | 2.25% | 0.47% |
| (8) Iowa | 40.02% | 5.89% | 0.98% | 0.18% |
| (11) Nebraska | 17.55% | 1.82% | 0.33% | 0.04% |
| (12) Penn State | 8.65% | 1.22% | 0.17% | 0.02% |
Our half of the bracket is a little tougher, as Indiana is actually the highest-rated team after giving them half of home court. OSU, MSU, and Indiana are co-favorites, with Michigan not far behind and Wisconsin and Purdue both with sizable chances of winning as well. Northwestern can possibly stake a claim to a seventh bid for the conference with an opening-round win, certainly by reaching the semifinals (which they have slightly better than a 1 in 6 chance of doing).
Margin-Aware System
| Team | Qtrs | Semis | Final | Champ |
| (1) Michigan State | 100% | 91.98% | 55.32% | 34.79% |
| (3) Ohio State | 100% | 76.04% | 56.96% | 29.15% |
| (5) Indiana | 95.18% | 62.27% | 30.62% | 18.04% |
| (2) Michigan | 100% | 72.65% | 25.68% | 7.91% |
| (4) Wisconsin | 100% | 37.31% | 13.02% | 5.75% |
| (6) Purdue | 88.89% | 23.49% | 12.36% | 3.45% |
| (7) Northwestern | 58.46% | 17.61% | 3.48% | 0.57% |
| (10) Minnesota | 41.54% | 9.74% | 1.47% | 0.18% |
| (9) Illinois | 60.73% | 5.60% | 0.78% | 0.13% |
| (8) Iowa | 39.27% | 2.42% | 0.23% | 0.03% |
| (11) Nebraska | 11.11% | 0.48% | 0.06% | 0.003% |
| (12) Penn State | 4.82% | 0.42% | 0.03% | 0.002% |
Michigan State and Ohio State both make a bit of a leap forward in this system, Michigan drops back, and a large chunk of the remaining movement is a question of how early you meet one of those three teams.