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Points Over Replacement Per Adjusted Game (PORPAG):
--Estimates the average number of points a player has produced above "replacement level"--i.e. what the 10th guy on an average team would get you if you had to use him instead--in a typical game.
--Like all basketball statistics, occurs within the context of a team dynamic (particularly true for low-usage guys).
--Tells you absolutely nothing about a player's defensive performance.
The numbers below are based on conference-only data from StatSheet. Replacement level is set at 88.0; pace is set at 62 possessions/game; the table covers the top 67 players in the conference by minutes played. Origins of PORPAG are here. Here are the numbers from 2010, 2011, and 2012.
Data dump:
Player | Class | Team | OffRtg | Poss% | Min% | PORPAG |
Trey Burke | So | Michigan | 121.3 | 30.0 | 90.3 | 5.60 |
Cody Zeller | So | Indiana | 116.3 | 27.6 | 77.1 | 3.73 |
Victor Oladipo | Jr | Indiana | 122.9 | 23.3 | 72.6 | 3.66 |
Deshaun Thomas | Jr | Ohio State | 110.6 | 27.5 | 92.1 | 3.54 |
Andre Hollins | So | Minnesota | 113.2 | 25.7 | 77.7 | 3.12 |
Gary Harris | Fr | Michigan State | 118.6 | 19.9 | 79.4 | 3.00 |
Glenn Robinson III | Fr | Michigan | 128.3 | 13.7 | 85.3 | 2.92 |
Jared Swopshire | Sr | Northwestern | 116.4 | 17.5 | 85.5 | 2.63 |
Adreian Payne | Jr | Michigan State | 118.1 | 19.7 | 69.6 | 2.55 |
Aaron White | So | Iowa | 110.6 | 23.7 | 74.1 | 2.47 |
D.J. Richardson | Sr | Illinois | 110.0 | 20.8 | 87.1 | 2.46 |
Christian Watford | Sr | Indiana | 114.9 | 19.8 | 72.6 | 2.39 |
Jordan Hulls | Sr | Indiana | 120.3 | 15.6 | 75.6 | 2.35 |
Sam Dekker | Fr | Wisconsin | 120.4 | 20.6 | 54.9 | 2.27 |
Austin Hollins | Jr | Minnesota | 111.8 | 19.2 | 76.4 | 2.16 |
Ben Brust | Jr | Wisconsin | 112.1 | 16.4 | 88.4 | 2.16 |
D.J. Byrd | Sr | Purdue | 112.0 | 16.8 | 78.1 | 1.96 |
Nik Stauskas | Fr | Michigan | 112.5 | 16.6 | 76.6 | 1.93 |
Derrick Nix | Sr | Michigan State | 109.2 | 20.1 | 71.8 | 1.89 |
Jermaine Marshall | Jr | Penn State | 100.3 | 26.6 | 86.8 | 1.77 |
Tim Hardaway Jr | Jr | Michigan | 102.9 | 22.1 | 86.4 | 1.76 |
Trevor Mbakwe | Sr | Minnesota | 105.2 | 22.4 | 73.5 | 1.76 |
Aaron Craft | Jr | Ohio State | 104.1 | 19.2 | 88.7 | 1.69 |
Kevin Ferrell | Fr | Indiana | 107.4 | 18.0 | 73.3 | 1.58 |
A.J. Hammons | Fr | Purdue | 104.1 | 25.3 | 61.4 | 1.55 |
Roy Devyn Marble | Jr | Iowa | 101.3 | 25.5 | 68.4 | 1.44 |
Will Sheehey | Jr | Indiana | 110.3 | 18.9 | 54.6 | 1.43 |
Brandon Paul | Sr | Illinois | 98.4 | 28.2 | 77.4 | 1.41 |
Lenzelle Smith Jr. | Jr | Ohio State | 104.7 | 19.0 | 70.8 | 1.39 |
Keith Appling | Jr | Michigan State | 99.0 | 23.8 | 84.3 | 1.37 |
Eric May | Sr | Iowa | 116.0 | 13.0 | 54.7 | 1.23 |
Jared Berggren | Sr | Wisconsin | 100.4 | 20.8 | 75.7 | 1.22 |
Melsahn Basabe | Jr | Iowa | 110.7 | 17.6 | 49.0 | 1.21 |
Branden Dawson | So | Michigan State | 101.2 | 21.5 | 66.7 | 1.17 |
Sam McLaurin | Sr | Illinois | 115.9 | 12.4 | 53.9 | 1.16 |
Rodney Williams | Sr | Minnesota | 102.8 | 19.0 | 65.8 | 1.15 |
Mitch McGary | Fr | Michigan | 107.2 | 19.9 | 47.8 | 1.13 |
Sasa Borovnjak | Jr | Penn State | 101.0 | 18.9 | 63.1 | 0.96 |
Dylan Talley | Sr | Nebraska | 94.4 | 27.0 | 89.0 | 0.95 |
Brandon Ubel | Sr | Nebraska | 97.7 | 20.2 | 75.3 | 0.91 |
Shavon Shields | Fr | Nebraska | 97.8 | 19.1 | 77.8 | 0.90 |
Terone Johnson | Jr | Purdue | 94.7 | 26.6 | 80.8 | 0.89 |
Sam Thompson | So | Ohio State | 101.1 | 15.2 | 62.2 | 0.77 |
Mike Bruesewitz | Sr | Wisconsin | 98.1 | 15.7 | 74.5 | 0.73 |
Tyler Griffey | Sr | Illinois | 102.1 | 17.0 | 49.3 | 0.73 |
Nnanna Egwu | So | Illinois | 99.2 | 16.6 | 63.2 | 0.73 |
Reggie Hearn | Sr | Northwestern | 93.9 | 23.5 | 79.6 | 0.69 |
Alex Marcotullio | Sr | Northwestern | 99.5 | 16.3 | 57.2 | 0.66 |
Rapheal Davis | Fr | Purdue | 99.8 | 15.7 | 55.9 | 0.65 |
Joe Coleman | So | Minnesota | 95.9 | 18.7 | 66.3 | 0.61 |
David Rivers | So | Nebraska | 96.9 | 14.5 | 72.6 | 0.58 |
Joseph Bertrand | Jr | Illinois | 96.7 | 17.4 | 61.0 | 0.58 |
Nick Colella | Sr | Penn State | 102.7 | 8.1 | 70.7 | 0.52 |
Tracy Abrams | So | Illinois | 92.8 | 23.7 | 72.1 | 0.51 |
Kale Abrahamson | Fr | Northwestern | 97.3 | 17.3 | 48.6 | 0.48 |
Tre Demps | Fr | Northwestern | 93.0 | 25.4 | 57.9 | 0.46 |
Ray Gallegos | Jr | Nebraska | 91.2 | 21.1 | 96.4 | 0.40 |
Denzel Valentine | Fr | Michigan State | 92.6 | 18.0 | 51.0 | 0.26 |
Shannon Scott | So | Ohio State | 92.3 | 18.5 | 50.2 | 0.25 |
Traevon Jackson | So | Wisconsin | 90.4 | 20.2 | 74.1 | 0.22 |
Devonte (DJ) Newbill | So | Penn State | 88.9 | 31.7 | 92.5 | 0.16 |
Mike Gesell | Fr | Iowa | 89.1 | 19.1 | 72.3 | 0.09 |
Ronnie Johnson | Fr | Purdue | 87.7 | 24.1 | 81.8 | (0.04) |
Dave Sobolewski | So | Northwestern | 86.5 | 20.9 | 88.3 | (0.17) |
Ryan Evans | Sr | Wisconsin | 86.4 | 25.8 | 70.0 | (0.18) |
Ross Travis | So | Penn State | 84.9 | 15.5 | 77.9 | (0.23) |
Alex Olah | Fr | Northwestern | 79.6 | 21.6 | 51.7 | (0.58) |
Brandon Taylor | Fr | Penn State | 71.0 | 17.1 | 49.0 | (0.88) |
I move that the top four guys on this list all go pro early and everyone else stays. All in favor? Motion approved.
Trey Burke was head and shoulders above the rest of the league offensively. The conference (and arguably national) player of the year race comes down to whether you think Oladipo's defense makes up the gap. It's close--Oladipo is a game-changer defensively--but I think you have to recognize that Burke is no slouch defensively, either (we've all spent the last week trying to block out the biggest defensive play he made this year). And I think you also have to recognize that Oladipo's supporting cast was stronger than Burke's down the stretch. So I vote for Burke.
Here are my personal picks for the all-Big Ten teams, accounting for the numbers above, defensive value, nonconference performance, and other things of a subjective nature.
(I'm probably not giving D.J. Newbill his due, but I gotta trust the numbers, man. It's my thing.)
Sixth Man: Dekker
Freshman: Harris
Coach of the Year: Fran McCaffrey (20 wins, #30 in the country per KenPom, .500 record in the toughest conference in the country, only one senior in the rotation, why the heck not)
Air your grievances with my selections below.