Projecting the 2013 Big Ten Basketball Race: March 8

With two games left, Indiana had already clinched a share of the title, and a Senior Night win against Ohio State would have given them the title outright. Instead, Ohio State's win keeps the race wide open, as Michigan can claim a share for themselves by beating Indiana, and both OSU and MSU can join the tie if Michigan wins. In the race for the 6th-9th seeds, the only certainty is that Iowa will not be 9th.

As always, ratings are here.

The Grid

Since some of the games involving top-five teams have an impact on the tiebreakers for teams 6-9, I've done this as a combined grid showing all six games and all twelve teams. (Click for larger.)

The top five are independent of the games that do not involve top-5 teams, so you can just look at the top quarter of the chart and ignore the Minnesota-Purdue and Nebraska-Iowa columns.

Team Scenarios

Indiana

Guaranteed the #1 seed and a share of the conference title. Win outright if they beat Michigan.

Michigan State

Guaranteed a bye. Share the conference title if we beat Northwestern and Michigan beats Indiana.

#2 seed if: Indiana beats Michigan, Illinois beats Ohio State, and either we beat Northwestern or Wisconsin beats Penn State. Bizarrely, none of these scenarios involve us sharing the conference title - but one where we're the #4 seed does.

#3 seed if:

• Indiana beats Michigan and Ohio State beats Illinois, OR
• Indiana beats Michigan, Illinois beats Ohio State, we lose to Northwestern, and Penn State beats Wisconsin, OR
• Michigan beats Indiana, Illinois beats Ohio State, and either we beat Northwestern or Wisconsin beats Penn State

#4 seed if Michigan beats Indiana and:

• Ohio State beats Illinois, OR
• we lose to Northwestern and Penn State beats Wisconsin.

It's amazing how little control we have over our seed. If either Wisconsin or Ohio State wins, our seed is already determined before our game tips.

Michigan

Share the conference title if they beat Indiana.

#2 seed if: they win and Ohio State loses.

#3 seed if: they win and Ohio State wins.

#4 seed if: they lose and Wisconsin loses.

#5 seed if: they lose and Wisconsin wins.

Ohio State

Share the conference title if they beat Illinois and Michigan beats Indiana.

#2 seed if: they win OR Michigan, MSU, and Wisconsin all lose.

#3 seed if: they lose and exactly one of Michigan, MSU, and Wisconsin wins.

#4 seed if: they lose and exactly two of Michigan, MSU, and Wisconsin win.

#5 seed if: they lose and Michigan, MSU, and Wisconsin all win.

Wisconsin

#3 seed if: they beat Penn State, MSU wins, and Michigan and OSU both lose.

#4 seed if they win and:

• OSU wins and Michigan loses, OR
• OSU loses and Michigan and MSU either both win or both lose.

#5 seed if:

• they lose, OR
• Michigan and OSU both win, OR
• Michigan wins and MSU and OSU both lose.

Minnesota

#6 seed if they beat Purdue and:

• Illinois loses, OR
• Iowa loses, Michigan wins, and either MSU or Wisconsin wins.

#7 seed if they win, Illinois wins, and:

• Iowa wins, OR
• Indiana wins, OR
• MSU and Wisconsin both lose.

#8 seed if: they lose, Iowa loses, Illinois loses, and Michigan and MSU win.

#9 seed if they lose and any of Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, or Northwestern win.

Iowa

#6 seed if:

• they beat Nebraska and Minnesota loses, OR
• they win and Illinois wins, OR
• they lose, Illinois and Minnesota lose, Michigan and MSU lose, and Wisconsin wins.

#7 seed if:

• Minnesota wins and Illinois loses, OR
• they lose, Minnesota and Illinois lose, and any of Michigan, MSU, and PSU win.

#8 seed if: they lose and Illinois wins.

Illinois

#6 seed if they beat Ohio State, Iowa loses, and:

• Minnesota loses, OR
• Indiana wins, OR
• MSU and Wisconsin both lose.

#7 seed if they win and:

• Minnesota loses and Iowa wins, OR
• Minnesota wins, Iowa loses, Michigan wins, and either MSU or Wisconsin wins.

#8 seed if:

• Minnesota and Iowa win, OR
• they lose and any of Minnesota, Iowa, Indiana, or Northwestern win.

#9 seed if: they lose, Minnesota and Iowa lose, and MSU and Michigan win.

Purdue

#6 seed if: they win, Iowa and Illinois lose, and any of Penn State, MSU, or Michigan win.

#7 seed if: they win and:

• exactly one of Iowa and Illinois loses, OR
• Iowa, Illinois, Penn State, MSU, and Michigan all lose.

#8 seed if: they win and Iowa and Illinois both win.

#9 seed if: they lose.

Nebraska, Northwestern, and Penn State

Guaranteed the #10, #11, and #12 seeds in that order.

Game Probabilities

Minnesota @ Purdue: Minnesota 63% basic / 67% (+4) margin-aware
Nebraska @ Iowa: Iowa 77% / 90% (+11.5)
Wisconsin @ Penn State: Wisconsin 74% / 82% (+8)
Illinois @ Ohio State: Ohio State 77% / 87% (+10)
Indiana @ Michigan: Michigan 67% / 61% (+2.5)
Northwestern @ Michigan State: Michigan State 94% / 96% (+17.5)

Seed Tables

2-5 Seeds

Team	#2	#3	#4	#5
Michigan State	7.63% / 5.15%	40.92% / 41.99%	51.45% / 52.86%	N/A
Michigan	15.61% / 8.06%	51.19% / 52.81%	8.67% / 6.95%	24.53% / 32.18%
Ohio State	76.76% / 86.79%	2.52% / 1.09%	9.92% / 5.73%	10.81% / 6.39%
Wisconsin	N/A	5.37% / 4.10%	29.96% / 34.47%	64.67% / 61.43%

6-9 Seeds

Team	#6	#7	#8	#9
Minnesota	50.44% / 58.66%	12.47% / 8.31%	4.11% / 1.76%	32.98% / 31.27%
Iowa	39.93% / 37.55%	54.67% / 61.07%	5.40% / 1.39%	N/A
Illinois	3.17% / 0.82%	8.90% / 4.48%	83.83% / 92.94%	4.11% / 1.76%
Purdue	6.46% / 2.96%	23.96% / 26.15%	6.67% / 3.92%	62.91% / 66.97%