Thought it would be a good idea to throw a reference fanpost in here just to reference as we hit the stretch run. I've included Spartan Dan's definition because I think he did a more thorough job (as usual):
BUBBLECON 5: It would take a nearly inconceivable collapse to fall out of the tournament.
BUBBLECON 4: On pace to make the tournament, but with considerably less room for error. An upset loss or two, or even just the failure to grab any of several opportunities at a decent quality win, could make things dicey, but if they can keep up with their projected record, Selection Sunday will be free of drama.
BUBBLECON 3: Projected record would put them very near the cut line. Need a run of decent wins or an upset win or two to feel safe, but they might get in without that as long as they avoid any disasters.
BUBBLECON 2: On pace to miss the tournament, but a hot streak could push them into the conversation.
BUBBLECON 1: Barring a shocking turnaround, it's auto-bid or bust.