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Michigan State Spartans Basketball: NCAA Tournament Log5

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New Log5 analysis for the NCAA tournament bracket

Caylor Arnold-USA TODAY Sports

[Editor's note: Matt nearly killed himself calculating these. I'm gonna do some analysis on my own afterwards. - JT]

Rank Seed Team Round 64 Round 32 Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final Four Finals Champions
1 1 Kentucky 100% 97.9% 89.7% 81.4% 67.9% 45.9% 33.7%
2 2 Arizona 100% 97.7% 81.3% 65.8% 42.1% 21.7% 14.0%
3 1 Wisconsin 100% 95.6% 81.9% 64.5% 36.5% 17.5% 10.6%
4 1 Villanova 100% 96.7% 81.5% 60.2% 35.9% 23.0% 10.0%
5 2 Virginia 100% 95.3% 75.4% 55.8% 33.8% 22.0% 9.7%
6 2 Gonzaga 100% 93.8% 70.5% 48.7% 29.1% 14.5% 5.4%
7 1 Duke 100% 93.0% 70.8% 45.0% 26.2% 12.5% 4.4%
8 5 Utah 100% 74.0% 52.0% 27.7% 14.9% 6.4% 2.0%
9 3 Oklahoma 100% 89.1% 61.2% 24.3% 10.4% 4.9% 1.4%
10 3 Notre Dame 100% 87.5% 53.8% 29.4% 8.2% 2.8% 1.1%
11 3 Iowa St. 100% 86.5% 53.9% 23.8% 11.0% 4.0% 1.0%
12 5 Northern Iowa 100% 84.9% 54.2% 20.6% 8.4% 3.8% 1.0%
13 2 Kansas 100% 83.6% 48.6% 26.9% 7.4% 2.5% 1.0%
14 4 North Carolina 100% 79.3% 54.3% 18.8% 6.6% 1.9% 0.7%
15 7 Wichita St. 100% 73.2% 39.3% 21.0% 5.5% 1.8% 0.7%
16 3 Baylor 100% 77.3% 49.5% 15.4% 5.9% 1.7% 0.6%
17 4 Louisville 100% 78.7% 37.3% 11.7% 3.9% 1.5% 0.3%
18 4 Georgetown 100% 83.6% 33.7% 12.8% 4.8% 1.4% 0.3%
19 6 SMU 100% 62.5% 29.7% 11.0% 4.3% 1.3% 0.3%
20 7 Michigan St. 100% 61.7% 16.5% 8.0% 2.7% 1.0% 0.2%
21 11 Texas 100% 52.2% 23.4% 10.4% 2.2% 0.6% 0.2%
22 5 West Virginia 100% 62.8% 37.1% 6.0% 2.4% 0.6% 0.2%
23 7 Iowa 100% 55.3% 16.7% 7.6% 2.7% 0.8% 0.1%
24 6 Butler 100% 47.8% 20.5% 8.7% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1%
25 10 Ohio St. 100% 55.6% 11.0% 5.5% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
26 8 San Diego St. 100% 57.7% 17.4% 6.9% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1%
27 5 Arkansas 100% 73.1% 31.7% 7.8% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1%
28 6 Providence 100% 56.7% 22.0% 5.8% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%
29 6 Xavier 100% 55.2% 24.7% 5.5% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1%
30 4 Maryland 100% 61.8% 31.0% 4.4% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1%
31 10 Davidson 100% 44.7% 11.8% 4.8% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%
32 8 Cincinnati 100% 56.6% 6.1% 3.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0%
33 7 VCU 100% 44.4% 7.4% 3.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
34 12 Stephen F. Austin 100% 26.0% 12.2% 3.7% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0%
35 11 BYU 57% 27.0% 11.5% 2.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
36 9 Oklahoma St. 100% 52.7% 9.4% 3.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
37 8 North Carolina St. 100% 51.7% 9.5% 3.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
38 11 UCLA 100% 37.5% 13.6% 3.6% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
39 10 Georgia 100% 38.3% 7.4% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
40 9 St. John's 100% 42.3% 10.4% 3.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
41 9 LSU 100% 48.3% 8.5% 3.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
42 8 Oregon 100% 47.3% 7.8% 3.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
43 12 Buffalo 100% 37.2% 17.2% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
44 9 Purdue 100% 43.4% 3.8% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
45 11 Boise St. 51% 22.0% 7.4% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
46 11 Dayton 49% 21.3% 7.0% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
47 10 Indiana 100% 26.8% 8.5% 2.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
48 13 Valparaiso 100% 38.2% 14.7% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
49 11 Mississippi 43% 17.7% 6.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
50 14 Georgia St. 100% 22.7% 7.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
51 13 Harvard 100% 20.7% 7.8% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
52 12 Wofford 100% 26.9% 6.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
53 15 New Mexico St. 100% 16.4% 3.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
54 13 UC Irvine 100% 21.3% 4.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
55 12 Wyoming 100% 15.1% 3.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
56 14 UAB 100% 13.5% 2.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
57 14 Northeastern 100% 12.5% 2.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
58 13 Eastern Washington 100% 16.4% 2.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
59 14 Albany 100% 10.9% 2.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
60 16 North Florida 61% 5.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
61 16 Coastal Carolina 100% 4.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
62 16 Manhattan 72% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
63 15 North Dakota St. 100% 6.2% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
64 15 Belmont 100% 4.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
65 16 Lafayette 100% 3.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
66 16 Robert Morris 39% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
67 15 Texas Southern 100% 2.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
68 16 Hampton 28% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

What sucks about this is that MSU's chances to make the Sweet Sixteen are pretty low given the overall championship odds. But a win against Virginia opens up the region quite a bit until potentially seeing Villanova - if MSU makes it that far it's likely Nova would be the opponent.

A six seed would've been a major improvement, and the S-curve suggested that MSU was the highest-rated 7 seed. The late loss to Wisconsin continues to have ill effects outside of just being a heart-wrenching loss.

Elsewhere, it's amazing that Kentucky has almost a 1 in 3 shot at winning the whole thing given the number of teams and the single-elimination nature of the tournament. Ohio State should be happy that they got a 10 seed instead of an 8 or 9. Poor Purdue has nearly no shot at getting to the second weekend. Wichita State got totally jobbed on their seed, too.

How, exactly, did Xavier end up with a 6 seed ahead of MSU? They went .500 in conference! That's incredibly frustrating, and with their draw MSU would end up with a significantly better show of the Sweet Sixteen or better.