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[Editor's note: Matt nearly killed himself calculating these. I'm gonna do some analysis on my own afterwards. - JT]
| Rank | Seed | Team | Round 64 | Round 32 | Sweet 16 | Elite 8 | Final Four | Finals | Champions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Kentucky | 100% | 97.9% | 89.7% | 81.4% | 67.9% | 45.9% | 33.7% |
| 2 | 2 | Arizona | 100% | 97.7% | 81.3% | 65.8% | 42.1% | 21.7% | 14.0% |
| 3 | 1 | Wisconsin | 100% | 95.6% | 81.9% | 64.5% | 36.5% | 17.5% | 10.6% |
| 4 | 1 | Villanova | 100% | 96.7% | 81.5% | 60.2% | 35.9% | 23.0% | 10.0% |
| 5 | 2 | Virginia | 100% | 95.3% | 75.4% | 55.8% | 33.8% | 22.0% | 9.7% |
| 6 | 2 | Gonzaga | 100% | 93.8% | 70.5% | 48.7% | 29.1% | 14.5% | 5.4% |
| 7 | 1 | Duke | 100% | 93.0% | 70.8% | 45.0% | 26.2% | 12.5% | 4.4% |
| 8 | 5 | Utah | 100% | 74.0% | 52.0% | 27.7% | 14.9% | 6.4% | 2.0% |
| 9 | 3 | Oklahoma | 100% | 89.1% | 61.2% | 24.3% | 10.4% | 4.9% | 1.4% |
| 10 | 3 | Notre Dame | 100% | 87.5% | 53.8% | 29.4% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| 11 | 3 | Iowa St. | 100% | 86.5% | 53.9% | 23.8% | 11.0% | 4.0% | 1.0% |
| 12 | 5 | Northern Iowa | 100% | 84.9% | 54.2% | 20.6% | 8.4% | 3.8% | 1.0% |
| 13 | 2 | Kansas | 100% | 83.6% | 48.6% | 26.9% | 7.4% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| 14 | 4 | North Carolina | 100% | 79.3% | 54.3% | 18.8% | 6.6% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| 15 | 7 | Wichita St. | 100% | 73.2% | 39.3% | 21.0% | 5.5% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| 16 | 3 | Baylor | 100% | 77.3% | 49.5% | 15.4% | 5.9% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| 17 | 4 | Louisville | 100% | 78.7% | 37.3% | 11.7% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| 18 | 4 | Georgetown | 100% | 83.6% | 33.7% | 12.8% | 4.8% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| 19 | 6 | SMU | 100% | 62.5% | 29.7% | 11.0% | 4.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| 20 | 7 | Michigan St. | 100% | 61.7% | 16.5% | 8.0% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| 21 | 11 | Texas | 100% | 52.2% | 23.4% | 10.4% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 22 | 5 | West Virginia | 100% | 62.8% | 37.1% | 6.0% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 23 | 7 | Iowa | 100% | 55.3% | 16.7% | 7.6% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| 24 | 6 | Butler | 100% | 47.8% | 20.5% | 8.7% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 25 | 10 | Ohio St. | 100% | 55.6% | 11.0% | 5.5% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 26 | 8 | San Diego St. | 100% | 57.7% | 17.4% | 6.9% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 27 | 5 | Arkansas | 100% | 73.1% | 31.7% | 7.8% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 28 | 6 | Providence | 100% | 56.7% | 22.0% | 5.8% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 29 | 6 | Xavier | 100% | 55.2% | 24.7% | 5.5% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 30 | 4 | Maryland | 100% | 61.8% | 31.0% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 31 | 10 | Davidson | 100% | 44.7% | 11.8% | 4.8% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 32 | 8 | Cincinnati | 100% | 56.6% | 6.1% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 33 | 7 | VCU | 100% | 44.4% | 7.4% | 3.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 34 | 12 | Stephen F. Austin | 100% | 26.0% | 12.2% | 3.7% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 35 | 11 | BYU | 57% | 27.0% | 11.5% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 36 | 9 | Oklahoma St. | 100% | 52.7% | 9.4% | 3.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 37 | 8 | North Carolina St. | 100% | 51.7% | 9.5% | 3.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 38 | 11 | UCLA | 100% | 37.5% | 13.6% | 3.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 39 | 10 | Georgia | 100% | 38.3% | 7.4% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 40 | 9 | St. John's | 100% | 42.3% | 10.4% | 3.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 41 | 9 | LSU | 100% | 48.3% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 42 | 8 | Oregon | 100% | 47.3% | 7.8% | 3.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 43 | 12 | Buffalo | 100% | 37.2% | 17.2% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 44 | 9 | Purdue | 100% | 43.4% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 45 | 11 | Boise St. | 51% | 22.0% | 7.4% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 46 | 11 | Dayton | 49% | 21.3% | 7.0% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 47 | 10 | Indiana | 100% | 26.8% | 8.5% | 2.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 48 | 13 | Valparaiso | 100% | 38.2% | 14.7% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 49 | 11 | Mississippi | 43% | 17.7% | 6.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 50 | 14 | Georgia St. | 100% | 22.7% | 7.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 51 | 13 | Harvard | 100% | 20.7% | 7.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 52 | 12 | Wofford | 100% | 26.9% | 6.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 53 | 15 | New Mexico St. | 100% | 16.4% | 3.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 54 | 13 | UC Irvine | 100% | 21.3% | 4.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 55 | 12 | Wyoming | 100% | 15.1% | 3.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 56 | 14 | UAB | 100% | 13.5% | 2.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 57 | 14 | Northeastern | 100% | 12.5% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 58 | 13 | Eastern Washington | 100% | 16.4% | 2.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 59 | 14 | Albany | 100% | 10.9% | 2.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 60 | 16 | North Florida | 61% | 5.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 61 | 16 | Coastal Carolina | 100% | 4.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 62 | 16 | Manhattan | 72% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 63 | 15 | North Dakota St. | 100% | 6.2% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 64 | 15 | Belmont | 100% | 4.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 65 | 16 | Lafayette | 100% | 3.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 66 | 16 | Robert Morris | 39% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 67 | 15 | Texas Southern | 100% | 2.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 68 | 16 | Hampton | 28% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
What sucks about this is that MSU's chances to make the Sweet Sixteen are pretty low given the overall championship odds. But a win against Virginia opens up the region quite a bit until potentially seeing Villanova - if MSU makes it that far it's likely Nova would be the opponent.
A six seed would've been a major improvement, and the S-curve suggested that MSU was the highest-rated 7 seed. The late loss to Wisconsin continues to have ill effects outside of just being a heart-wrenching loss.
Elsewhere, it's amazing that Kentucky has almost a 1 in 3 shot at winning the whole thing given the number of teams and the single-elimination nature of the tournament. Ohio State should be happy that they got a 10 seed instead of an 8 or 9. Poor Purdue has nearly no shot at getting to the second weekend. Wichita State got totally jobbed on their seed, too.
How, exactly, did Xavier end up with a 6 seed ahead of MSU? They went .500 in conference! That's incredibly frustrating, and with their draw MSU would end up with a significantly better show of the Sweet Sixteen or better.