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Big Ten Basketball Projections 2016: Conference Week 5

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It's a race for second place as Iowa is running away with the title; five more teams are fighting for the last three double-byes.

Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports

Last Week's Results

Bold means an upset (based on last week's projections); italics indicate a road win.

Midweek Games

Indiana 103, Illinois 69
Maryland 62, Northwestern 56 (OT)
Nebraska 72, Michigan State 71
Michigan 74, Minnesota 69
Iowa 90, Rutgers 76
Purdue 75, Ohio State 64
Wisconsin 66, Penn State 60

Weekend Games

Indiana 89, Northwestern 57
Michigan 81, Nebraska 68
Michigan State 74, Maryland 65
Illinois 76, Minnesota 71 (OT)
Iowa 83, Purdue 71
Ohio State 66, Penn State 46

Tuesday Night

Wisconsin 82, Indiana 79 (OT) (Indiana was a 55% favorite, projected margin +1)

This week went remarkably to form, with only one major exception (which I prefer not to talk about) and two minor ones (Wisconsin winning a pair of toss-up games, one last night which normally would go on next week's list).

Conference Projections

All projections are based on my margin-aware ratings; the preseason adjustment has now been removed and all ratings are based solely on this season's results. Ratings based on wins and losses only are available here. Ratings are current through Sunday's games (Ohio State-Penn State and Wisconsin-Indiana results are included in the projection tables but not in the ratings).

Summary Table

Average conference wins and 10+ win percentages are based on game-by-game projections. Championships (outright or shared) and top/middle/bottom tier finishes are based on 100,000 season simulations; ties are not broken accurately but credit is split evenly (two teams tied for fourth and fifth each get credit for half of a top 4 finish and half of a middle 6 finish). Movement in the rank order and in BUBBLECON is noted in the table.

Team Current Avg wins Outright Shared Top 4 Middle 6 Bottom 4 10+ Wins BUBBLECON
Iowa 7-0 15.96 83.61% 94.09% 99.84% 0.16% <0.01% 4.17M-to-1 fav 5
Maryland 6-2 12.98 2.15% 7.68% 80.27% 19.73% <0.01% 250-to-1 fav 5
Indiana 7-1 12.81 2.65% 7.93% 75.63% 24.37% <0.01% 200-to-1 fav 5
Purdue (+1)
5-3 12.10 0.26% 1.66% 57.68% 42.30% 0.02% 97.99% 5
Michigan State (-1)
4-4 11.82 0.02% 0.46% 49.13% 50.86% 0.02% 97.74% 5
Michigan 5-2 11.28 0.24% 1.21% 34.28% 65.52% 0.20% 89.07% 4
Ohio State 5-3 8.89 <0.01% 0.02% 2.35% 90.16% 7.49% 32.32% 2
Wisconsin (+1)
4-4 8.53 <0.01% <0.01% 0.56% 90.40% 9.04% 20.58% 2 (+1)
Northwestern (-1)
3-5 7.77 <0.01% <0.01% 0.11% 78.82% 21.07% 6.42% 1
Nebraska 4-4 7.62 <0.01% <0.01% 0.14% 73.81% 26.05% 6.44% 1
Illinois (+1)
2-5 6.71 <0.01% <0.01% 0.02% 44.18% 55.80% 1.67% 1
Penn State (-1)
2-6 5.69 <0.01% <0.01% <0.01% 19.63% 80.37% 1 in 850 1
Minnesota 0-8 2.00 <0.01% <0.01% <0.01% 0.01% 99.99% 1 in 9.44 B 1
Rutgers 0-7 1.84 <0.01% <0.01% <0.01% 0.03% 99.97% 1 in 1.31 B 1

Iowa now projects three games ahead of everyone else. The loss to Nebraska drops MSU one further spot to fifth, though second through fifth are separated by only slightly over one win in the projections. Michigan has some very clear separation from Ohio State and has crept closer to the top pack jockeying for second, while Wisconsin's recent wins have given them at least faint bubble hopes again. At the far end, Minnesota and Rutgers have practically wrapped up Wednesday games in the Big Ten tournament already

Projections by Record

I'll start separating these out into rows of teams that are close together fairly soon, but for now those would be wide enough to force two separate tables for each group anyway.

Team 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10
Iowa 1 in 80.9 B 1 in 338 M
Maryland 1 in 4.11 M 1 in 71,600 0.03%
Indiana 1 in 270,000 0.03%
Purdue 1 in 10.0 M 1 in 155,000 0.02% 0.23%
Michigan State 1 in 2.54 B 1 in 12.1 M 1 in 192,000 0.02% 0.24%
Michigan 1 in 304,000 0.02% 0.33% 2.25%
Ohio State 0.31% 3.13% 12.09% 24.11%
Wisconsin 0.03% 0.54% 3.94% 14.57% 29.19%
Northwestern 1 in 34,700 0.13% 1.85% 10.86% 28.39% 33.24%
Nebraska 0.14% 2.91% 14.54% 29.75% 29.77%
Illinois 0.02% 0.40% 3.55% 13.65% 26.73% 29.01% 18.21%
Penn State 0.39% 3.63% 13.63% 26.69% 29.36% 18.43% 6.52%
Minnesota 4.98% 28.03% 37.83% 21.61% 6.38% 1.07% 0.10% 1 in 17,100 1 in 566,000
Rutgers 9.99% 30.24% 33.66% 18.89% 5.97% 1.11% 0.12% 1 in 12,200 1 in 311,000

Team 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Iowa 1 in 4.22 M 1 in 110,000 0.02% 0.24% 1.79% 8.21% 22.29% 33.85% 25.92% 7.67%
Maryland 0.36% 2.40% 9.37% 22.04% 30.71% 24.10% 9.53% 1.45%
Indiana 0.46% 3.29% 11.97% 24.63% 29.63% 20.61% 7.84% 1.44% 0.10%
Purdue 1.77% 7.88% 20.55% 31.02% 25.90% 10.87% 1.76%
Michigan State 2.01% 9.55% 25.05% 34.93% 22.98% 5.22%
Michigan 8.33% 18.62% 26.39% 24.11% 14.02% 4.93% 0.93% 0.07%
Ohio State 28.04% 20.15% 9.13% 2.58% 0.43% 0.04% 1 in 82,400
Wisconsin 31.15% 16.43% 3.73% 0.40% 0.02% 1 in 249,000
Northwestern 19.11% 5.58% 0.79% 0.05% 1 in 96,700
Nebraska 16.46% 5.31% 1.01% 0.11% 1 in 17,300 1 in 844,000
Illinois 6.76% 1.48% 0.18% 0.01% 1 in 397,000
Penn State 1.24% 0.11% 1 in 23,700 1 in 1.96 M
Minnesota 1 in 41.3 M 1 in 9.44 B
Rutgers 1 in 14.2 M 1 in 1.31 B 1 in 344 B

This Week's Games

All times ET. Odds are based on the margin-aware ratings.

Midweek

Indiana at Wisconsin - Tuesday night (Indiana 55%, projected margin +1; Wisconsin won 82-79 in OT)
Rutgers at Michigan - Wednesday, 7:00, BTN (Michigan 98.0%, +21)
Purdue at Minnesota - Wednesday, 9:00, BTN (Purdue 92.8%, +14)
Iowa at Maryland - Thursday, 7:00, ESPN (Maryland 55%, +1)
Michigan State at Northwestern - Thursday, 9:00, ESPN (Michigan State 71%, +5)
Ohio State at Illinois - Thursday, 9:00, BTN (Illinois 58%, +1.5)

Byes: Nebraska, Penn State

Weekend

Michigan at Penn State - Saturday, Noon, BTN (Michigan 63%, +3)
Minnesota at Indiana - Saturday, 2:15, BTN (Indiana 97.9%, +21)
Nebraska at Purdue - Saturday, 4:30, BTN (Purdue 95.0%, +16)
Maryland at Ohio State - Sunday, 1:00, CBS (Maryland 69%, +4.5)
Northwestern at Iowa - Sunday, 3:00, BTN (Iowa 95.8%, +17)
Rutgers at Michigan State - Sunday, 5:15, BTN (Michigan State 99.2%, +26.5)
Wisconsin at Illinois - Sunday, 7:30, BTN (Illinois 52%, +0.5)

If Iowa wins at Maryland, just call off the title race now. If they don't, things get a bit more interesting (although they'll still be big favorites to win the whole thing). Illinois has a couple of key games, hosting the two teams who might be able to give the Big Ten a seventh bid; if they win both, they're probably too far gone to become that seventh team but they might become a fringe candidate again.