clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Around the B1G: Basketball Week 1 Preview

New, 3 comments

Conference play is finally here for basketball. Here’s what’s on tap for Week 1.

NCAA Basketball: Oakland at Michigan State Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports

What Happened Last Week

In the week leading up to Christmas, the Big Ten ran the table with one exception: Rutgers lost at Seton Hall. None of that is surprising, as Seton Hall was the only opponent any Big Ten team played in the Kenpom top 100 (MSU over #101 Oakland was the best win of the week). So status quo all around.

Conference Projections

All projections are based on my margin-aware ratings, which still include a small preseason adjustment for teams who have played fewer than 15 games. Ratings without the preseason adjustment or which ignore margin are available here. Ratings are current through Sunday's games. This early in the season, the ratings tend to put too much emphasis on home court advantage, as the fact that most games on someone’s home court are hosted by the better team makes it difficult to separate the two factors.

Summary Table

Average conference wins and 10+ win percentages are based on game-by-game projections. Championships (outright or shared) and top/middle/bottom tier finishes are based on 100,000 season simulations; ties are not broken accurately but credit is split evenly (two teams tied for fourth and fifth each get credit for half of a top 4 finish and half of a middle 6 finish). BUBBLECON is estimated based on the projections plus data from RPIForecast.com.

2017 BB Projections Wk 1 - Summary

Team Avg wins Outright Shared Top 4 Middle 6 Bottom 4 10+ Wins BUBBLECON
Team Avg wins Outright Shared Top 4 Middle 6 Bottom 4 10+ Wins BUBBLECON
Purdue 13.49 43.32% 62.17% 92.67% 7.29% 0.04% 99.00% 5
Wisconsin 12.13 13.08% 25.78% 75.96% 23.69% 0.36% 93.86% 5
Indiana 11.51 7.80% 16.97% 63.44% 35.81% 0.76% 88.08% 4
Minnesota 11.16 4.88% 11.98% 55.86% 42.74% 1.42% 83.37% 4
Northwestern 10.73 3.60% 9.10% 45.87% 51.54% 2.60% 75.93% 4 (+1)
Michigan 9.75 1.14% 3.43% 25.63% 67.11% 7.27% 55.63% 4
Illinois 8.91 0.29% 1.19% 13.76% 70.58% 15.67% 37.27% 3
Maryland 8.81 0.29% 1.09% 12.32% 71.03% 16.66% 34.73% 3
Ohio State 8.25 0.20% 0.80% 8.46% 65.27% 26.28% 24.88% 3
Rutgers 7.54 0.03% 0.18% 3.43% 57.44% 39.14% 12.96% 1
Iowa 6.71 0.01% 0.04% 1.15% 40.51% 58.34% 5.18% 1
Michigan State 6.58 0.01% 0.04% 1.12% 37.71% 61.17% 4.75% 2 (-1)
Penn State 5.47 <0.01% <0.01% 0.25% 18.03% 81.73% 1.03% 1
Nebraska 4.97 <0.01% <0.01% 0.08% 11.35% 88.57% 1 in 260 1

The noticeable changes are that Northwestern bumps up to BUBBLECON 4 after seeing their solid projection and MSU drops down to a 2 thanks to a very low rating in my system. Before you go into full panic mode, though, keep in mind that my method seems to be a major outlier on MSU right now (having us at #98 while most of the computers that make up the Massey Composite have us around #60); I hope it’s wrong about us and that the various injury situations clear up soon.

Projections by Record

2017 BB Projections Wk 1 - 10+ Wins

Team 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Team 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Purdue 2.86% 7.64% 15.22% 22.28% 23.42% 17.04% 8.06% 2.21% 0.26%
Wisconsin 10.45% 18.23% 23.13% 21.04% 13.41% 5.77% 1.57% 0.24% 0.02%
Indiana 15.54% 21.96% 22.39% 16.30% 8.31% 2.87% 0.63% 0.08% 1 in 22,800
Minnesota 18.10% 22.73% 20.67% 13.45% 6.13% 1.88% 0.37% 0.04% 1 in 53,400
Northwestern 20.27% 22.17% 17.77% 10.25% 4.14% 1.12% 0.19% 0.02% 1 in 139k
Michigan 22.03% 17.55% 10.21% 4.28% 1.27% 0.25% 0.03% 1 in 41,400 1 in 1.29M
Illinois 18.46% 11.47% 5.20% 1.69% 0.38% 0.06% 1 in 17,700 1 in 326k 1 in 14.2M
Maryland 17.80% 10.54% 4.57% 1.44% 0.32% 0.05% 1 in 20,000 1 in 344k 1 in 13.5M
Ohio State 13.68% 7.25% 2.89% 0.85% 0.18% 0.03% 1 in 38,400 1 in 682k 1 in 27.8M
Rutgers 8.51% 3.31% 0.93% 0.18% 0.03% 1 in 42,600 1 in 737k 1 in 22.6M 1 in 1.62B
Iowa 3.80% 1.11% 0.23% 0.03% 1 in 27,500 1 in 392k 1 in 8.79M 1 in 348M 1 in 32.1B
Michigan State 3.46% 1.02% 0.22% 0.03% 1 in 26,000 1 in 345k 1 in 7.15M 1 in 259M 1 in 21.9B
Penn State 0.83% 0.17% 0.03% 1 in 36,200 1 in 483k 1 in 9.55M 1 in 296M 1 in 16.1B 1 in 2.04T
Nebraska 0.33% 0.06% 1 in 14,400 1 in 157k 1 in 2.39M 1 in 52.6M 1 in 1.77B 1 in 101B 1 in 13.2T

2017 BB Projections Wk 1 - .500 or Worse

Team 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9
Team 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9
Purdue 1 in 47.3T 1 in 330B 1 in 5.25B 1 in 144M 1 in 6.06M 1 in 371k 1 in 31,800 0.03% 0.17% 0.80%
Wisconsin 1 in 343B 1 in 3.40B 1 in 76.9M 1 in 2.99M 1 in 179k 1 in 15,600 0.05% 0.31% 1.37% 4.40%
Indiana 1 in 102B 1 in 963M 1 in 21.2M 1 in 831k 1 in 51,700 0.02% 0.15% 0.80% 2.97% 7.98%
Minnesota 1 in 19.6B 1 in 224M 1 in 5.93M 1 in 275k 1 in 20,000 0.05% 0.30% 1.35% 4.43% 10.50%
Northwestern 1 in 1.52B 1 in 23.2M 1 in 826k 1 in 51,500 0.02% 0.14% 0.71% 2.58% 6.90% 13.72%
Michigan 1 in 112M 1 in 2.09M 1 in 91,400 0.01% 0.12% 0.65% 2.50% 6.90% 13.84% 20.35%
Illinois 1 in 5.15M 1 in 148k 0.01% 0.09% 0.53% 2.13% 6.08% 12.62% 19.32% 21.94%
Maryland 1 in 7.43M 1 in 189k 1 in 11,100 0.09% 0.54% 2.25% 6.53% 13.51% 20.23% 22.13%
Ohio State 1 in 785k 1 in 26,600 0.05% 0.33% 1.52% 4.74% 10.55% 17.27% 21.13% 19.52%
Rutgers 1 in 267k 1 in 10,100 0.11% 0.72% 2.95% 8.14% 15.72% 21.71% 21.75% 15.91%
Iowa 1 in 37,900 0.05% 0.45% 2.21% 6.89% 14.54% 21.46% 22.59% 17.16% 9.46%
Michigan State 1 in 25,500 0.07% 0.60% 2.74% 7.97% 15.69% 21.77% 21.79% 15.97% 8.65%
Penn State 0.05% 0.57% 2.90% 8.62% 16.76% 22.53% 21.64% 15.14% 7.79% 2.96%
Nebraska 0.10% 1.07% 4.83% 12.58% 21.03% 23.90% 19.10% 10.97% 4.60% 1.42%

There aren’t any extreme outliers at this point this year, unlike last where Rutgers was (at this time) given a 1 in 1.63 quintillion chance of running the table. The closest to that, Purdue’s 1 in 47.3 trillion chance of going 0-18, is still four and a half orders of magnitude more likely. This should make for a bit wilder race all the way through the conference standings.

This Week’s Games

All times ET.

Midweek

Northwestern at Penn State (Tuesday, 3:00, ESPN2) - Northwestern 59% to win (projected margin +2)
Illinois at Maryland (Tuesday, 5:00, ESPN2) - Maryland 76% (+6)
Rutgers at Wisconsin (Tuesday, 7:00, ESPN2) - Wisconsin 93.0% (+13.5)
Michigan State at Minnesota (Tuesday, 9:00, ESPN2) - Minnesota 91.8% (+13)
Nebraska at Indiana (Wednesday, 6:30, BTN) - Indiana 96.4% (+17.5)
Iowa at Purdue (Wednesday, 8:30, BTN) - Purdue 95.9% (+16.5)

Idle: Michigan, Ohio State

Weekend

Northwestern at Michigan State (Friday, 6:00, BTN) - Northwestern 52% (+0.5)
Nonconference: Louisville vs. Indiana (at Indianapolis; considered neutral site) (Saturday, 12:30, CBS) - Louisville 66% (+3.5)
Nebraska at Maryland (Sunday, Noon, BTN) - Maryland 90.9% (+12)
Michigan at Iowa (Sunday, 2:15, BTN) - Iowa 53% (+0.5)
Penn State at Rutgers (Sunday, 2:30, ESPNU) - Rutgers 83% (+8.5)
Minnesota at Purdue (Sunday, 4:30, BTN) - Purdue 86% (+9.5)
Ohio State at Illinois (Sunday, 7:00, BTN) - Illinois 77% (+6.5)

Idle: Wisconsin

The weekend slate looks more interesting than the midweek games. It’s a crucial start for Northwestern, with two toss-up games right off the bat. Michigan State can’t afford an 0-2 hole and will need to defend home court against Northwestern, at the very least.