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What Happened Last Week
In the week leading up to Christmas, the Big Ten ran the table with one exception: Rutgers lost at Seton Hall. None of that is surprising, as Seton Hall was the only opponent any Big Ten team played in the Kenpom top 100 (MSU over #101 Oakland was the best win of the week). So status quo all around.
Conference Projections
All projections are based on my margin-aware ratings, which still include a small preseason adjustment for teams who have played fewer than 15 games. Ratings without the preseason adjustment or which ignore margin are available here. Ratings are current through Sunday's games. This early in the season, the ratings tend to put too much emphasis on home court advantage, as the fact that most games on someone’s home court are hosted by the better team makes it difficult to separate the two factors.
Summary Table
Average conference wins and 10+ win percentages are based on game-by-game projections. Championships (outright or shared) and top/middle/bottom tier finishes are based on 100,000 season simulations; ties are not broken accurately but credit is split evenly (two teams tied for fourth and fifth each get credit for half of a top 4 finish and half of a middle 6 finish). BUBBLECON is estimated based on the projections plus data from RPIForecast.com.
2017 BB Projections Wk 1 - Summary
| Team | Avg wins | Outright | Shared | Top 4 | Middle 6 | Bottom 4 | 10+ Wins | BUBBLECON |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Avg wins | Outright | Shared | Top 4 | Middle 6 | Bottom 4 | 10+ Wins | BUBBLECON |
| Purdue | 13.49 | 43.32% | 62.17% | 92.67% | 7.29% | 0.04% | 99.00% | 5 |
| Wisconsin | 12.13 | 13.08% | 25.78% | 75.96% | 23.69% | 0.36% | 93.86% | 5 |
| Indiana | 11.51 | 7.80% | 16.97% | 63.44% | 35.81% | 0.76% | 88.08% | 4 |
| Minnesota | 11.16 | 4.88% | 11.98% | 55.86% | 42.74% | 1.42% | 83.37% | 4 |
| Northwestern | 10.73 | 3.60% | 9.10% | 45.87% | 51.54% | 2.60% | 75.93% | 4 (+1) |
| Michigan | 9.75 | 1.14% | 3.43% | 25.63% | 67.11% | 7.27% | 55.63% | 4 |
| Illinois | 8.91 | 0.29% | 1.19% | 13.76% | 70.58% | 15.67% | 37.27% | 3 |
| Maryland | 8.81 | 0.29% | 1.09% | 12.32% | 71.03% | 16.66% | 34.73% | 3 |
| Ohio State | 8.25 | 0.20% | 0.80% | 8.46% | 65.27% | 26.28% | 24.88% | 3 |
| Rutgers | 7.54 | 0.03% | 0.18% | 3.43% | 57.44% | 39.14% | 12.96% | 1 |
| Iowa | 6.71 | 0.01% | 0.04% | 1.15% | 40.51% | 58.34% | 5.18% | 1 |
| Michigan State | 6.58 | 0.01% | 0.04% | 1.12% | 37.71% | 61.17% | 4.75% | 2 (-1) |
| Penn State | 5.47 | <0.01% | <0.01% | 0.25% | 18.03% | 81.73% | 1.03% | 1 |
| Nebraska | 4.97 | <0.01% | <0.01% | 0.08% | 11.35% | 88.57% | 1 in 260 | 1 |
The noticeable changes are that Northwestern bumps up to BUBBLECON 4 after seeing their solid projection and MSU drops down to a 2 thanks to a very low rating in my system. Before you go into full panic mode, though, keep in mind that my method seems to be a major outlier on MSU right now (having us at #98 while most of the computers that make up the Massey Composite have us around #60); I hope it’s wrong about us and that the various injury situations clear up soon.
Projections by Record
2017 BB Projections Wk 1 - 10+ Wins
| Team | 10-8 | 11-7 | 12-6 | 13-5 | 14-4 | 15-3 | 16-2 | 17-1 | 18-0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | 10-8 | 11-7 | 12-6 | 13-5 | 14-4 | 15-3 | 16-2 | 17-1 | 18-0 |
| Purdue | 2.86% | 7.64% | 15.22% | 22.28% | 23.42% | 17.04% | 8.06% | 2.21% | 0.26% |
| Wisconsin | 10.45% | 18.23% | 23.13% | 21.04% | 13.41% | 5.77% | 1.57% | 0.24% | 0.02% |
| Indiana | 15.54% | 21.96% | 22.39% | 16.30% | 8.31% | 2.87% | 0.63% | 0.08% | 1 in 22,800 |
| Minnesota | 18.10% | 22.73% | 20.67% | 13.45% | 6.13% | 1.88% | 0.37% | 0.04% | 1 in 53,400 |
| Northwestern | 20.27% | 22.17% | 17.77% | 10.25% | 4.14% | 1.12% | 0.19% | 0.02% | 1 in 139k |
| Michigan | 22.03% | 17.55% | 10.21% | 4.28% | 1.27% | 0.25% | 0.03% | 1 in 41,400 | 1 in 1.29M |
| Illinois | 18.46% | 11.47% | 5.20% | 1.69% | 0.38% | 0.06% | 1 in 17,700 | 1 in 326k | 1 in 14.2M |
| Maryland | 17.80% | 10.54% | 4.57% | 1.44% | 0.32% | 0.05% | 1 in 20,000 | 1 in 344k | 1 in 13.5M |
| Ohio State | 13.68% | 7.25% | 2.89% | 0.85% | 0.18% | 0.03% | 1 in 38,400 | 1 in 682k | 1 in 27.8M |
| Rutgers | 8.51% | 3.31% | 0.93% | 0.18% | 0.03% | 1 in 42,600 | 1 in 737k | 1 in 22.6M | 1 in 1.62B |
| Iowa | 3.80% | 1.11% | 0.23% | 0.03% | 1 in 27,500 | 1 in 392k | 1 in 8.79M | 1 in 348M | 1 in 32.1B |
| Michigan State | 3.46% | 1.02% | 0.22% | 0.03% | 1 in 26,000 | 1 in 345k | 1 in 7.15M | 1 in 259M | 1 in 21.9B |
| Penn State | 0.83% | 0.17% | 0.03% | 1 in 36,200 | 1 in 483k | 1 in 9.55M | 1 in 296M | 1 in 16.1B | 1 in 2.04T |
| Nebraska | 0.33% | 0.06% | 1 in 14,400 | 1 in 157k | 1 in 2.39M | 1 in 52.6M | 1 in 1.77B | 1 in 101B | 1 in 13.2T |
2017 BB Projections Wk 1 - .500 or Worse
| Team | 0-18 | 1-17 | 2-16 | 3-15 | 4-14 | 5-13 | 6-12 | 7-11 | 8-10 | 9-9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | 0-18 | 1-17 | 2-16 | 3-15 | 4-14 | 5-13 | 6-12 | 7-11 | 8-10 | 9-9 |
| Purdue | 1 in 47.3T | 1 in 330B | 1 in 5.25B | 1 in 144M | 1 in 6.06M | 1 in 371k | 1 in 31,800 | 0.03% | 0.17% | 0.80% |
| Wisconsin | 1 in 343B | 1 in 3.40B | 1 in 76.9M | 1 in 2.99M | 1 in 179k | 1 in 15,600 | 0.05% | 0.31% | 1.37% | 4.40% |
| Indiana | 1 in 102B | 1 in 963M | 1 in 21.2M | 1 in 831k | 1 in 51,700 | 0.02% | 0.15% | 0.80% | 2.97% | 7.98% |
| Minnesota | 1 in 19.6B | 1 in 224M | 1 in 5.93M | 1 in 275k | 1 in 20,000 | 0.05% | 0.30% | 1.35% | 4.43% | 10.50% |
| Northwestern | 1 in 1.52B | 1 in 23.2M | 1 in 826k | 1 in 51,500 | 0.02% | 0.14% | 0.71% | 2.58% | 6.90% | 13.72% |
| Michigan | 1 in 112M | 1 in 2.09M | 1 in 91,400 | 0.01% | 0.12% | 0.65% | 2.50% | 6.90% | 13.84% | 20.35% |
| Illinois | 1 in 5.15M | 1 in 148k | 0.01% | 0.09% | 0.53% | 2.13% | 6.08% | 12.62% | 19.32% | 21.94% |
| Maryland | 1 in 7.43M | 1 in 189k | 1 in 11,100 | 0.09% | 0.54% | 2.25% | 6.53% | 13.51% | 20.23% | 22.13% |
| Ohio State | 1 in 785k | 1 in 26,600 | 0.05% | 0.33% | 1.52% | 4.74% | 10.55% | 17.27% | 21.13% | 19.52% |
| Rutgers | 1 in 267k | 1 in 10,100 | 0.11% | 0.72% | 2.95% | 8.14% | 15.72% | 21.71% | 21.75% | 15.91% |
| Iowa | 1 in 37,900 | 0.05% | 0.45% | 2.21% | 6.89% | 14.54% | 21.46% | 22.59% | 17.16% | 9.46% |
| Michigan State | 1 in 25,500 | 0.07% | 0.60% | 2.74% | 7.97% | 15.69% | 21.77% | 21.79% | 15.97% | 8.65% |
| Penn State | 0.05% | 0.57% | 2.90% | 8.62% | 16.76% | 22.53% | 21.64% | 15.14% | 7.79% | 2.96% |
| Nebraska | 0.10% | 1.07% | 4.83% | 12.58% | 21.03% | 23.90% | 19.10% | 10.97% | 4.60% | 1.42% |
There aren’t any extreme outliers at this point this year, unlike last where Rutgers was (at this time) given a 1 in 1.63 quintillion chance of running the table. The closest to that, Purdue’s 1 in 47.3 trillion chance of going 0-18, is still four and a half orders of magnitude more likely. This should make for a bit wilder race all the way through the conference standings.
This Week’s Games
All times ET.
Midweek
Northwestern at Penn State (Tuesday, 3:00, ESPN2) - Northwestern 59% to win (projected margin +2)
Illinois at Maryland (Tuesday, 5:00, ESPN2) - Maryland 76% (+6)
Rutgers at Wisconsin (Tuesday, 7:00, ESPN2) - Wisconsin 93.0% (+13.5)
Michigan State at Minnesota (Tuesday, 9:00, ESPN2) - Minnesota 91.8% (+13)
Nebraska at Indiana (Wednesday, 6:30, BTN) - Indiana 96.4% (+17.5)
Iowa at Purdue (Wednesday, 8:30, BTN) - Purdue 95.9% (+16.5)
Idle: Michigan, Ohio State
Weekend
Northwestern at Michigan State (Friday, 6:00, BTN) - Northwestern 52% (+0.5)
Nonconference: Louisville vs. Indiana (at Indianapolis; considered neutral site) (Saturday, 12:30, CBS) - Louisville 66% (+3.5)
Nebraska at Maryland (Sunday, Noon, BTN) - Maryland 90.9% (+12)
Michigan at Iowa (Sunday, 2:15, BTN) - Iowa 53% (+0.5)
Penn State at Rutgers (Sunday, 2:30, ESPNU) - Rutgers 83% (+8.5)
Minnesota at Purdue (Sunday, 4:30, BTN) - Purdue 86% (+9.5)
Ohio State at Illinois (Sunday, 7:00, BTN) - Illinois 77% (+6.5)
Idle: Wisconsin
The weekend slate looks more interesting than the midweek games. It’s a crucial start for Northwestern, with two toss-up games right off the bat. Michigan State can’t afford an 0-2 hole and will need to defend home court against Northwestern, at the very least.