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Around the B1G: Basketball Week 4 Recap, Week 5 Preview

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Wisconsin’s grip on the projected lead tightens, but after that it’s anybody’s guess.

NCAA Basketball: Michigan State at Indiana Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Last Week’s Results

Upsets according to last week’s projections are in bold; road wins are in italics.

Midweek

Purdue 91, Illinois 68
Wisconsin 68, Michigan 64
Indiana 78, Penn State 75
Ohio State 67, Nebraska 66
Maryland 84, Iowa 76

Weekend

Rutgers 65, Nebraska 64
Purdue 77, Penn State 52
Michigan 66, Illinois 57
Indiana 82, Michigan State 75
Wisconsin 78, Minnesota 76 (OT)
Northwestern 74, Ohio State 72

Lots of close games this week, but remarkably few upsets - the only two were Ohio State and Wisconsin pulling off narrow road victories in games where they would have been favored at a neutral site. That pushes the Badgers even further in front of the pack.

Conference Projections

All projections are based on my margin-aware ratings. Ratings which ignore margin are available here. Ratings are current through Sunday's games.

Summary Table

Average wins and chances of 10+ wins are based on game-by-game odds. Chances for an outright title, share of the title, and top/middle/bottom tier finishes are based on 100,000 season simulations; tiebreakers are not incorporated into the simulations at this point, but instead the credit is split evenly (a tie for 4th, 5th, and 6th would give each team credit for 13 of a top 4 finish and 23 of a middle 6 finish). BUBBLECON is estimated from the projected record and RPI data from RPIForecast.com.

2017 BB Projections Wk 5 - Summary

Team Current Avg wins Outright Shared Top 4 Middle 6 Bottom 4 10+ Wins BUBBLECON
Team Current Avg wins Outright Shared Top 4 Middle 6 Bottom 4 10+ Wins BUBBLECON
Wisconsin 5-1 14.50 62.93% 81.24% 98.65% 1.35% <0.01% 99.95% 5
Purdue 5-2 12.43 6.48% 16.80% 83.61% 16.35% 0.04% 97.80% 5
Northwestern 5-2 12.29 5.33% 14.50% 83.15% 16.83% 0.02% 98.13% 4
Maryland 5-1 11.92 3.89% 10.95% 73.36% 26.55% 0.09% 95.18% 5 (+1)
Minnesota 3-4 10.60 0.29% 1.58% 36.71% 62.40% 0.90% 79.90% 5
Michigan State 4-3 9.21 0.06% 0.33% 10.44% 82.31% 7.26% 41.83% 3
Indiana 4-3 9.07 0.04% 0.27% 9.70% 82.28% 8.02% 38.11% 3
Michigan 3-4 7.78 <0.01% 0.02% 2.05% 68.98% 28.98% 12.35% 2
Iowa 3-4 7.04 <0.01% <0.01% 0.38% 52.39% 47.24% 3.82% 1
Penn State 3-4 7.02 <0.01% <0.01% 0.45% 50.86% 48.69% 3.88% 1 (-1)
Illinois 2-5 7.00 <0.01% <0.01% 0.68% 50.69% 48.64% 5.00% 2
Ohio State 2-5 6.92 <0.01% <0.01% 0.57% 48.14% 51.30% 4.23% 2
Nebraska 3-4 6.59 <0.01% <0.01% 0.25% 39.62% 60.12% 2.08% 1 (-1)
Rutgers 1-6 3.64 <0.01% <0.01% <0.01% 1.29% 98.71% 1 in 84,800 1

Wisconsin now sits two full games clear at the top, and after Minnesota’s third loss in a row, Maryland overtakes them for fourth place and also moves up to a tournament lock (barring disaster). It could be argued that Northwestern also deserves a promotion to BUBBLECON 5, but given the history there I’ll hold off for a little longer. The game of musical chairs in the 8th-13th spots continues, with Michigan vaulting up to the top of the bottom half but still barely a game out of second-to-last. Penn State, after a very short-lived promotion to fringe tournament contention, is back out of the mix, and Nebraska joins them after losing to Ohio State and Rutgers in the same week.

Projections by Record

2017 BB Projections Wk 5 - .500 or Better

Team 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1
Team 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1
Wisconsin 0.04% 0.31% 1.60% 5.77% 14.56% 25.17% 28.35% 18.71% 5.48%
Purdue 1.85% 6.77% 16.21% 25.55% 26.08% 16.49% 5.83% 0.87%
Northwestern 1.62% 6.89% 18.05% 28.74% 26.85% 13.78% 3.49% 0.34%
Maryland 3.89% 11.50% 21.88% 26.93% 21.19% 10.30% 2.91% 0.43% 0.03%
Minnesota 13.98% 25.59% 28.84% 18.69% 6.07% 0.71%
Michigan State 26.87% 23.31% 12.94% 4.52% 0.95% 0.11% 1 in 21,000
Indiana 26.93% 21.98% 11.50% 3.79% 0.75% 0.08% 1 in 26,900
Michigan 18.78% 8.99% 2.77% 0.52% 0.05% 1 in 41,700
Iowa 10.76% 3.20% 0.57% 0.06% 1 in 34,400 1 in 1.73M
Penn State 10.43% 3.20% 0.61% 0.07% 1 in 26,100 1 in 1.16M
Illinois 11.23% 4.00% 0.88% 0.11% 1 in 19,300
Ohio State 10.18% 3.42% 0.72% 0.09% 1 in 22,500
Nebraska 6.68% 1.75% 0.29% 0.03% 1 in 61,700 1 in 2.73M
Rutgers 0.02% 1 in 87,300 1 in 2.93M 1 in 244M

2017 BB Projections Wk 5 - Below .500

Team 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10
Team 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10
Wisconsin 1 in 971M 1 in 13.5M 1 in 443k 1 in 25,700
Purdue 1 in 3.10M 1 in 58,400 0.03% 0.32%
Northwestern 1 in 6.87M 1 in 120k 0.02% 0.23%
Maryland 1 in 526k 1 in 14,300 0.10% 0.82%
Minnesota 1 in 7.76M 1 in 156k 0.01% 0.16% 1.09% 4.87%
Michigan State 0.02% 0.34% 2.37% 8.90% 19.67%
Indiana 0.03% 0.45% 2.99% 10.36% 21.13%
Michigan 0.08% 0.99% 4.93% 13.68% 23.37% 25.81%
Iowa 0.27% 2.59% 10.25% 22.03% 28.15% 22.13%
Penn State 0.24% 2.59% 10.62% 22.63% 28.09% 21.52%
Illinois 0.06% 0.73% 3.88% 11.53% 21.25% 25.62% 20.71%
Ohio State 0.04% 0.68% 4.04% 12.37% 22.48% 26.04% 19.93%
Nebraska 0.73% 5.31% 16.03% 26.42% 26.26% 16.49%
Rutgers 3.48% 15.61% 28.58% 28.09% 16.49% 6.08% 1.43% 0.22%

This Week’s Games

All times ET.

Midweek

Purdue at Michigan State (Tuesday, 7:00, ESPN2) - Purdue 61% (projected margin +2.5)
Rutgers at Maryland (Tuesday, 7:00, BTN) - Maryland 92.6% (+13.5)
Penn State at Wisconsin (Tuesday, 9:00, BTN) - Wisconsin 94.2% (+15)
Minnesota at Ohio State (Wednesday, 7:00, BTN) - Minnesota 56% (+1.5)
Iowa at Illinois (Wednesday, 9:00, BTN) - Illinois 77% (+6.5)
Nebraska at Northwestern (Thursday, 8:00, BTN) - Northwestern 92.6% (+13.5)
Indiana at Michigan (Thursday, 9:00, ESPN2) - Michigan 59% (+2)

Weekend

Wisconsin at Rutgers (Saturday, Noon, BTN) - Wisconsin 85% (+9.5)
Maryland at Minnesota (Saturday, 2:15, BTN) - Minnesota 76% (+6.5)
Illinois at Penn State (Saturday, 4:30, BTN) - Penn State 64% (+3.5)
Ohio State at Iowa (Saturday, 8:00, ESPN2) - Iowa 59% (+2)
Michigan at Michigan State (Sunday, 1:00, CBS) - Michigan State 68% (+4)
Purdue at Nebraska (Sunday, 4:30, BTN) - Purdue 76% (+6)
Indiana at Northwestern (Sunday, 6:30, BTN) - Northwestern 78% (+7)

This is a big week for several teams. Michigan State has a big opportunity this week with a pair of home games, including one which would be a major resume-booster. If MSU can hold serve at home throughout Big Ten play, that gets us to the 10-8 mark that is probably the threshold for a tournament berth; drop either of these and we need a road win to compensate. Indiana has a pair of road trips and could find themselves in serious trouble with an 0-2 week. Michigan plays both of those teams and could join them on the bubble with a sweep. The Buckeyes desperately need a sweep to get back in the hunt, with a home game against slumping Minnesota followed by a road trip to Iowa.