clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Around the B1G: Basketball Week 1 Recap, Week 2 Preview

New, 18 comments

A week full of surprises totally rearranges the projected standings.

NCAA Basketball: Northwestern at Michigan State Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports

Last Week’s Results

Upsets (based on last week’s projections) are in bold; road wins are in italics.

Midweek

Northwestern 87, Penn State 77
Maryland 84, Illinois 59
Wisconsin 72, Rutgers 52
Michigan State 75, Minnesota 74 (OT)
Nebraska 87, Indiana 83
Purdue 89, Iowa 67

Weekend

Michigan State 61, Northwestern 52
Louisville 77, Indiana 62 (non-conference)
Nebraska 67, Maryland 65
Iowa 86, Michigan 83 (OT)
Penn State 60, Rutgers 47
Minnesota 91, Purdue 82 (OT)
Illinois 75, Ohio State 70

Only two teams managed to start off 2-0 (Wisconsin didn’t have the chance to thanks to a bye) - and neither was favored in either game by my ratings prior to the week. Nebraska picked up two major road upsets, MSU had one plus a toss-up, and Minnesota (on the losing end of one of the upsets) bounced back with an overtime road upset of their own.

Conference Projections

All projections are based on my margin-aware ratings, which still include a small preseason adjustment for teams who have played fewer than 15 games. Ratings without the preseason adjustment or which ignore margin are available here. Ratings are current through Sunday's games. At this point in the season, the ratings still tend to overvalue home court (though it’s starting to move back toward a more normal figure).

Summary Table

Average wins and chances of 10+ wins are based on game-by-game odds. Chances for an outright title, share of the title, and top/middle/bottom tier finishes are based on 100,000 season simulations; tiebreakers are not incorporated into the simulations at this point, but instead the credit is split evenly (a tie for 4th, 5th, and 6th would give each team credit for 13 of a top 4 finish and 23 of a middle 6 finish). BUBBLECON is estimated from the projected record and RPI data from RPIForecast.com.

2017 BB Projections Wk 2 - Summary

Team Avg wins Outright Shared Top 4 Middle 6 Bottom 4 10+ Wins BUBBLECON
Team Avg wins Outright Shared Top 4 Middle 6 Bottom 4 10+ Wins BUBBLECON
Wisconsin 12.57 29.62% 47.23% 86.25% 13.48% 0.28% 96.26% 5
Minnesota 12.18 19.66% 35.83% 82.59% 17.06% 0.37% 94.95% 5 (+1)
Purdue 11.68 12.68% 25.64% 73.12% 25.87% 1.03% 89.80% 5
Northwestern 11.15 7.13% 16.65% 62.86% 35.56% 1.60% 84.18% 4
Michigan State 9.29 0.95% 3.08% 21.89% 64.74% 13.41% 44.79% 3 (+1)
Michigan 9.20 0.85% 2.82% 21.16% 64.33% 14.54% 43.46% 4
Illinois 8.73 0.48% 1.69% 14.53% 63.94% 21.56% 33.10% 3
Indiana 8.46 0.33% 1.26% 11.41% 62.76% 25.86% 27.60% 3 (-1)
Nebraska 8.35 0.25% 0.94% 9.78% 62.09% 28.17% 24.88% 2 (+1)
Maryland 8.27 0.16% 0.80% 8.77% 62.14% 29.12% 23.32% 3
Ohio State 7.51 0.11% 0.47% 4.96% 49.22% 45.85% 13.48% 2 (-1)
Iowa 6.78 0.01% 0.06% 1.41% 35.84% 62.77% 4.91% 1
Penn State 6.51 0.01% 0.04% 1.06% 30.71% 68.25% 3.58% 1
Rutgers 5.32 <0.01% 0.01% 0.22% 12.60% 87.18% 0.73% 1

Lots of movement here, since the teams were already clustered fairly close together and there were several upsets. The middle part of the table might as well be the computer saying ¯\_(ツ)_/¯; one win separates fifth from 10th. Wisconsin and Minnesota overtake Purdue at the top, and MSU and Nebraska rocket from 12th and last to 5th and 9th, respectively. From a tournament hopes perspective:

  • Minnesota’s solid projection and very RPI-friendly non-conference schedule make it hard to imagine them missing out barring total collapse.
  • MSU’s projection improved by 2.7 wins (partly from a major improvement in the ratings, partly from already having two wins in the books including a road win over a projected top 4 team), making the 10-8 target for a tournament bid look much more achievable.
  • Losing to Louisville isn’t anything for Indiana to be ashamed of. Losing to Nebraska probably is - and their schedule doesn’t do them a lot of favors from the RPI perspective, despite four top-20 non-conference games.
  • Speaking of Nebraska, while their horrendous non-conference means 10 wins is a bare minimum (and even then, they would have the most losses ever for an at-large), the 11-7 threshold where I think they’d have a real shot suddenly looks ... well, still unlikely, but no longer inconceivable.
  • Ohio State losing to Illinois wasn’t really unexpected, but the movement of teams around them has knocked their projection down quite noticeably, and they didn’t have all that much room for error to begin with.

Projections by Record

2017 BB Projections Wk 2 - 10+ Wins

Team 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Team 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Wisconsin 7.49% 14.83% 21.55% 22.77% 17.13% 8.88% 2.98% 0.58% 0.05%
Minnesota 9.73% 18.10% 23.98% 22.23% 13.95% 5.58% 1.27% 0.12%
Purdue 13.95% 20.83% 22.78% 17.95% 9.87% 3.58% 0.77% 0.07%
Northwestern 18.35% 23.58% 21.43% 13.47% 5.64% 1.47% 0.21% 0.01%
Michigan State 20.78% 13.96% 6.86% 2.45% 0.62% 0.11% 0.01% 1 in 117k 1 in 3.99M
Michigan 20.60% 13.68% 6.48% 2.14% 0.48% 0.07% 1 in 18,300 1 in 529k
Illinois 17.38% 10.02% 4.18% 1.24% 0.25% 0.03% 1 in 41,300 1 in 1.28M
Indiana 15.48% 8.10% 3.05% 0.81% 0.15% 0.02% 1 in 89,100 1 in 3.05M
Nebraska 14.37% 7.14% 2.57% 0.67% 0.12% 0.01% 1 in 86,500 1 in 1.96M 1 in 105M
Maryland 13.85% 6.60% 2.24% 0.53% 0.09% 1 in 11,400 1 in 196k 1 in 7.85M
Ohio State 8.60% 3.54% 1.07% 0.23% 0.03% 1 in 30,900 1 in 571k 1 in 24.7M
Iowa 3.70% 0.99% 0.19% 0.02% 1 in 50,200 1 in 954k 1 in 32.4M 1 in 2.60B
Penn State 2.75% 0.69% 0.12% 0.01% 1 in 84,100 1 in 1.65M 1 in 57.4M 1 in 4.64B
Rutgers 0.60% 0.11% 0.01% 1 in 74,400 1 in 1.26M 1 in 36.8M 1 in 2.47B

2017 BB Projections Wk 2 - .500 or Worse

Team 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9
Team 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9
Wisconsin 1 in 46.4B 1 in 527M 1 in 13.7M 1 in 622k 1 in 43,600 0.02% 0.15% 0.77% 2.79%
Minnesota 1 in 44.6B 1 in 483M 1 in 11.9M 1 in 513k 1 in 34,300 0.03% 0.21% 1.05% 3.76%
Purdue 1 in 2.23B 1 in 32.2M 1 in 1.08M 1 in 63,100 0.02% 0.13% 0.67% 2.51% 6.89%
Northwestern 1 in 766M 1 in 12.3M 1 in 450k 1 in 28,500 0.04% 0.25% 1.19% 4.11% 10.24%
Michigan State 1 in 174k 0.01% 0.16% 0.99% 3.83% 9.91% 17.74% 22.57%
Michigan 1 in 16.9M 1 in 425k 1 in 24,200 0.04% 0.29% 1.32% 4.35% 10.31% 17.80% 22.44%
Illinois 1 in 331k 1 in 12,600 0.09% 0.58% 2.44% 6.97% 14.10% 20.62% 22.08%
Indiana 1 in 2.69M 1 in 77,400 0.02% 0.17% 0.90% 3.34% 8.66% 16.10% 21.75% 21.47%
Nebraska 1 in 13,300 0.12% 0.86% 3.56% 9.50% 17.40% 22.56% 21.10%
Maryland 1 in 177k 0.01% 0.16% 0.98% 3.83% 9.96% 17.93% 22.86% 20.94%
Ohio State 1 in 129k 0.02% 0.17% 0.94% 3.44% 8.70% 15.81% 21.07% 20.89% 15.49%
Iowa 0.02% 0.26% 1.65% 5.99% 13.90% 21.80% 23.68% 18.06% 9.73%
Penn State 0.03% 0.44% 2.45% 7.91% 16.41% 23.07% 22.62% 15.71% 7.78%
Rutgers 0.05% 0.63% 3.25% 9.59% 18.16% 23.41% 21.27% 13.93% 6.65% 2.33%

This Week’s Games

All times ET.

Midweek

Wisconsin at Indiana (Tuesday, 7:00, ESPN) - Indiana 54% to win (projected margin: +1)
Rutgers at Michigan State (Wednesday, 6:30, BTN) - Michigan State 84% (+9.5)
Penn State at Michigan (Wednesday, 8:30, BTN) - Michigan 88% (+11)
Purdue at Ohio State (Thursday, 7:00, ESPN) - Purdue 54% (+1)
Iowa at Nebraska (Thursday, 9:00, BTN) - Nebraska 77% (+7)
Minnesota at Northwestern (Thursday, 9:00, ESPN) - Northwestern 65% (+3.5)

Idle: Illinois, Maryland

Weekend

Michigan State at Penn State (Saturday, 1:00, ESPN - at the Palestra, considered semi-home for Penn State) - Michigan State 51% (+0)
Maryland at Michigan (Saturday, 3:15, ESPN2) - Michigan 79% (+7.5)
Illinois at Indiana (Saturday, 5:00, ESPNU) - Indiana 79% (+7.5)
Northwestern at Nebraska (Sunday, 2:15, BTN) - Northwestern 56% (+1.5)
Rutgers at Iowa (Sunday, 4:30, BTN) - Iowa 73% (+5.5)
Wisconsin at Purdue (Sunday, 4:30, CBS) - Purdue 70% (+4.5)
Ohio State at Minnesota (Sunday, 7:30, BTN) - Minnesota 90.9% (+13)

Quite a few interesting games this week. The marquee matchup is Wisconsin-Purdue on Sunday, which could have a huge influence on the championship race. For potential tournament hopes, though, the surprisingly big game of the week is Northwestern-Nebraska. If the Huskers can defend home court and get to 4-0, going .500 the rest of the way might be enough; for Northwestern, it’s another in a series of toss-up or slight-favorite games to open Big Ten play.