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Last Week’s Results
Upsets according to last week’s projections are in bold; road wins are in italics.
Midweek
Purdue 84, Michigan State 73
Maryland 67, Rutgers 55
Wisconsin 82, Penn State 55
Ohio State 78, Minnesota 72
Illinois 76, Iowa 64
Northwestern 73, Nebraska 61
Michigan 90, Indiana 60
Weekend
Wisconsin 61, Rutgers 54 (OT)
Maryland 85, Minnesota 78
Penn State 71, Illinois 67
Iowa 85, Ohio State 72
Michigan State 70, Michigan 62
Nebraska 83, Purdue 80
Northwestern 68, Indiana 55
Minnesota is in a major slump, taking two upset losses this week to fall to 3-6 in conference. As for Nebraska, the only thing certain is chaos; how else do you explain a team with road wins at Indiana and Maryland and a home win over Purdue, yet losses at Rutgers and at home to Ohio State?
Conference Projections
All projections are based on my margin-aware ratings. Ratings which ignore margin are available here. Ratings are current through Sunday's games.
Summary Table
Average wins and chances of 10+ wins are based on game-by-game odds. Chances for an outright title, share of the title, and top/middle/bottom tier finishes are based on 100,000 season simulations; tiebreakers are not incorporated into the simulations at this point, but instead the credit is split evenly (a tie for 4th, 5th, and 6th would give each team credit for 1⁄3 of a top 4 finish and 2⁄3 of a middle 6 finish). BUBBLECON is estimated from the projected record and RPI data from RPIForecast.com.
2017 BB Projections Wk 6 - Summary
| Team | Current | Avg wins | Outright | Shared | Top 4 | Middle 6 | Bottom 4 | 10+ Wins | BUBBLECON |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Current | Avg wins | Outright | Shared | Top 4 | Middle 6 | Bottom 4 | 10+ Wins | BUBBLECON |
| Wisconsin | 7-1 | 14.83 | 61.04% | 80.20% | 99.77% | 0.23% | <0.01% | 99.99% | 5 |
| Maryland | 7-1 | 13.30 | 11.22% | 25.35% | 97.45% | 2.54% | <0.01% | 99.74% | 5 |
| Northwestern | 7-2 | 12.71 | 4.82% | 13.91% | 95.75% | 4.25% | <0.01% | 99.51% | 5 (+1) |
| Purdue | 6-3 | 12.06 | 1.46% | 5.98% | 89.34% | 10.64% | 0.02% | 97.73% | 5 |
| Michigan State | 5-4 | 8.90 | <0.01% | 0.03% | 6.03% | 84.88% | 9.09% | 31.33% | 3 |
| Minnesota | 3-6 | 8.79 | <0.01% | <0.01% | 3.92% | 86.71% | 9.37% | 28.29% | 4 (-1) |
| Michigan | 4-5 | 8.13 | <0.01% | 0.01% | 2.81% | 74.83% | 22.36% | 15.44% | 3 (+1) |
| Indiana | 4-5 | 7.98 | <0.01% | <0.01% | 2.37% | 72.32% | 25.31% | 12.35% | 2 (-1) |
| Iowa | 4-5 | 7.37 | <0.01% | <0.01% | 0.43% | 58.14% | 41.43% | 4.22% | 1 |
| Nebraska | 4-5 | 7.35 | <0.01% | <0.01% | 0.63% | 56.87% | 42.51% | 5.37% | 1 |
| Penn State | 4-5 | 7.26 | <0.01% | <0.01% | 0.64% | 53.41% | 45.96% | 4.47% | 1 |
| Illinois | 3-6 | 7.05 | <0.01% | <0.01% | 0.52% | 48.59% | 50.90% | 3.68% | 2 |
| Ohio State | 3-6 | 6.98 | <0.01% | <0.01% | 0.34% | 46.25% | 53.41% | 2.76% | 2 |
| Rutgers | 1-8 | 3.28 | <0.01% | <0.01% | <0.01% | 0.36% | 99.64% | 1 in 4.01M | 1 |
After the top four, the dropoff is extreme, with a gap in the projections of more than three full wins. The gap from fifth down to 13th isn’t even two full wins, though from 13th to 14th is another huge gap (thanks, Rutgers).
The top four seem safely in the field (and yes, that includes Northwestern, who would need to go 3-6 or worse down the stretch to even be worried), but behind them there are a lot of teams that seem right on the edge at best. Minnesota’s major slump has taken them out of lock status, though given their RPI-friendly non-conference schedule they have a good chance of making the tournament even at 8-10 in conference. Historical precedent suggests MSU needs 10 wins, and while that’s still well within the range of plausible outcomes it now requires at least one more road win. Michigan has put together a decent run of late, including their 30-point smackdown of Indiana, to get back on the bubble, while Indiana (reeling from injury as well as said smackdown) now appears to be in serious danger. Near the bottom, Illinois and Ohio State remain viable candidates if they can get to 9-9, but the odds are against them both. Nebraska did too much damage to their record in non-conference, but they’ve certainly demonstrated the ability to play land mine to others’ hopes.
If you’re wondering why Maryland lags so far behind Wisconsin despite having only two losses on the season: lots of narrow escapes and a very light start to the conference schedule - they have yet to play a team with a winning conference record, and all four teams currently 3-6 or worse are among their five double-plays - are a source of skepticism so far for the model.
Projections by Record
2017 BB Projections Wk 6 - .500 or better
| Team | 9-9 | 10-8 | 11-7 | 12-6 | 13-5 | 14-4 | 15-3 | 16-2 | 17-1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | 9-9 | 10-8 | 11-7 | 12-6 | 13-5 | 14-4 | 15-3 | 16-2 | 17-1 |
| Wisconsin | 1 in 12,900 | 0.09% | 0.68% | 3.31% | 10.66% | 22.71% | 30.69% | 23.79% | 8.06% |
| Maryland | 0.24% | 1.67% | 6.95% | 17.84% | 28.27% | 26.85% | 14.21% | 3.61% | 0.33% |
| Northwestern | 0.46% | 3.27% | 12.40% | 26.28% | 31.18% | 19.75% | 5.97% | 0.67% | |
| Purdue | 2.00% | 8.62% | 21.27% | 30.55% | 24.92% | 10.58% | 1.80% | ||
| Michigan State | 30.67% | 21.06% | 8.25% | 1.80% | 0.20% | 1 in 11,700 | |||
| Minnesota | 32.74% | 21.61% | 6.11% | 0.56% | |||||
| Michigan | 23.58% | 11.60% | 3.32% | 0.50% | 0.03% | ||||
| Indiana | 22.13% | 9.69% | 2.36% | 0.29% | 0.01% | ||||
| Iowa | 13.79% | 3.68% | 0.50% | 0.03% | 1 in 132k | ||||
| Nebraska | 13.74% | 4.44% | 0.84% | 0.09% | 1 in 28,400 | ||||
| Penn State | 12.22% | 3.72% | 0.68% | 0.07% | 1 in 36,400 | ||||
| Illinois | 11.00% | 3.18% | 0.48% | 0.03% | |||||
| Ohio State | 9.53% | 2.42% | 0.33% | 0.02% | |||||
| Rutgers | 1 in 59,100 | 1 in 4.01M |
2017 BB Projections Wk 6 - Below .500
| Team | 1-17 | 2-16 | 3-15 | 4-14 | 5-13 | 6-12 | 7-11 | 8-10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | 1-17 | 2-16 | 3-15 | 4-14 | 5-13 | 6-12 | 7-11 | 8-10 |
| Wisconsin | 1 in 14.7M | 1 in 279k | ||||||
| Maryland | 1 in 171k | 0.02% | ||||||
| Northwestern | 1 in 142k | 0.03% | ||||||
| Purdue | 1 in 333k | 0.01% | 0.25% | |||||
| Michigan State | 0.18% | 2.23% | 10.67% | 24.93% | ||||
| Minnesota | 1 in 111k | 0.03% | 0.38% | 2.68% | 10.76% | 25.12% | ||
| Michigan | 0.17% | 1.97% | 8.91% | 21.11% | 28.82% | |||
| Indiana | 0.19% | 2.30% | 10.29% | 23.21% | 29.55% | |||
| Iowa | 0.69% | 5.60% | 18.14% | 30.11% | 27.45% | |||
| Nebraska | 0.94% | 6.58% | 18.88% | 28.84% | 25.66% | |||
| Penn State | 0.83% | 7.07% | 20.79% | 30.01% | 24.61% | |||
| Illinois | 0.26% | 2.54% | 10.14% | 21.86% | 28.12% | 22.40% | ||
| Ohio State | 0.16% | 2.11% | 10.24% | 23.63% | 29.74% | 21.82% | ||
| Rutgers | 5.61% | 21.24% | 32.19% | 25.58% | 11.69% | 3.15% | 0.49% | 0.04% |
This Week’s Games
All times ET.
Midweek
Iowa at Rutgers (Tuesday, 7:00, BTN) - Rutgers 55% (projected margin +1)
Maryland at Ohio State (Tuesday, 7:00, ESPN) - Maryland 55% (+1)
Wisconsin at Illinois (Tuesday, 9:00, BTN) - Wisconsin 72% (+5)
Penn State at Indiana (Wednesday, 6:30, BTN) - Indiana 84% (+9)
Northwestern at Purdue (Wednesday, 8:30, BTN) - Purdue 73% (+5.5)
Michigan State at Nebraska (Thursday, 7:00, ESPN) - Nebraska 56% (+1.5)
Idle: Minnesota, Michigan
Weekend
Purdue at Maryland (Saturday, Noon, ESPN) - Maryland 58% (+2)
Rutgers at Penn State (Saturday, 1:00, ESPNU) - Penn State 81% (+8)
Minnesota at Illinois (Saturday, 4:00, BTN) - Illinois 50.2% (+0)
Ohio State at Michigan (Saturday, 6:00, ESPN2) - Michigan 77% (+6.5)
Indiana at Wisconsin (Sunday, 1:00, CBS) - Wisconsin 88% (+11)
Nebraska at Iowa (Sunday, 2:00, BTN) - Iowa 70% (+4.5)
Idle: Michigan State, Northwestern
Purdue has a chance to get themselves back in the thick of the conference title race with games against two of the teams ahead of them in the standings. Among bubble teams, Illinois has two big opportunities in home games against likely tournament teams (although Minnesota might not be one anymore if they lose that game). MSU needs a road win somewhere (in addition to winning out at home) to get to 10-8, and this is the easiest opportunity remaining.