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Around the B1G: Basketball Week 6 Recap, Week 7 Preview

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A week full of road wins provides clarity at the top of the standings and even more chaos below.

NCAA Basketball: Michigan State at Nebraska Bruce Thorson-USA TODAY Sports

Last Week’s Results

Upsets according to last week’s projections are in bold; road wins are in italics.

Midweek

Iowa 83, Rutgers 63
Maryland 77, Ohio State 71
Wisconsin 57, Illinois 43
Indiana 110, Penn State 102 (3OT)
Purdue 80, Northwestern 59
Michigan State 72, Nebraska 61

Weekend

Purdue 73, Maryland 72
Rutgers 70, Penn State 68
Minnesota 68, Illinois 59
Ohio State 70, Michigan 66
Wisconsin 65, Indiana 60
Iowa 81, Nebraska 70

Eight road wins - including Rutgers’s first as a member of the Big Ten - will shuffle things around a bit in the conference standings. Purdue’s win at Maryland leaves Wisconsin alone atop the standings, Minnesota and MSU picked up critical road wins, and Ohio State dealt a serious blow to Michigan’s tournament chances. Penn State nearly did the same to Indiana, falling short largely thanks to embarrassingly poor rebounding and free throw shooting.

Conference Projections

All projections are based on my margin-aware ratings. Ratings which ignore margin are available here. Ratings are current through Sunday's games.

Summary Table

Average wins and chances of 10+ wins are based on game-by-game odds. Chances for an outright title, share of the title, and top/middle/bottom tier finishes are based on 100,000 season simulations; tiebreakers are not incorporated into the simulations at this point, but instead the credit is split evenly (a tie for 4th, 5th, and 6th would give each team credit for 13 of a top 4 finish and 23 of a middle 6 finish). BUBBLECON is estimated from the projected record and RPI data from RPIForecast.com.

2017 BB Projections Wk 7 - Summary

Team Current Avg wins Outright Shared Top 4 Middle 6 Bottom 4 10+ Wins BUBBLECON
Team Current Avg wins Outright Shared Top 4 Middle 6 Bottom 4 10+ Wins BUBBLECON
Wisconsin 9-1 15.42 76.27% 91.20% 99.93% 0.07% <0.01% 99.9999% 5
Purdue 8-3 13.25 2.23% 10.56% 97.77% 2.23% <0.01% 99.97% 5
Maryland 8-2 13.24 4.36% 13.75% 96.73% 3.27% <0.01% 99.91% 5
Northwestern 7-3 12.22 0.92% 4.20% 89.69% 10.31% <0.01% 98.94% 5
Michigan State 6-4 9.64 <0.01% 0.04% 8.54% 90.24% 1.21% 54.47% 3
Minnesota 4-6 9.48 <0.01% <0.01% 5.03% 93.60% 1.37% 51.43% 4
Iowa 6-5 8.50 <0.01% <0.01% 1.08% 92.54% 6.38% 16.31% 2 (+1)
Indiana 5-6 7.94 <0.01% <0.01% 0.82% 82.97% 16.21% 9.80% 2
Ohio State 4-7 7.36 <0.01% <0.01% 0.11% 70.73% 29.16% 2.64% 2
Michigan 4-6 7.14 <0.01% <0.01% 0.27% 62.22% 37.51% 3.20% 2 (-1)
Nebraska 4-7 6.24 <0.01% <0.01% 0.01% 33.75% 66.24% 0.18% 1
Illinois 3-8 6.06 <0.01% <0.01% 0.02% 29.37% 70.61% 0.12% 1 (-1)
Penn State 4-7 6.06 <0.01% <0.01% 0.01% 28.30% 71.69% 0.21% 1
Rutgers 2-9 3.45 <0.01% <0.01% 0.40% 99.60% 1

MSU and Minnesota did themselves big favors last week; both are now slim favorites to reach the 10-win threshold (and Minnesota can probably survive being a game below that, maybe even two). Ohio State also gained some ground, though they remain a fringe candidate at the moment and the missed opportunity at home against Maryland may come back to haunt them. The big mover is Iowa; I’m hesitant to leave anybody with a decent shot at 10 wins at BUBBLECON 1, though in Iowa’s case I could probably justify it (10-8 would, according to RPIForecast.com, leave their RPI rank in the high 70s).

On the negative side, Illinois dropped a pair to move themselves completely out of contention (they probably need at least a 6-1 finish, maybe even 7-0, to have a chance), and Michigan’s home loss to Ohio State puts them in serious danger.

Projections by Record

2017 BB Projections Wk 7 - Above .500

Team 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1
Team 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1
Wisconsin 1 in 22,600 0.08% 0.74% 4.17% 14.39% 29.87% 34.19% 16.56%
Purdue 0.57% 4.50% 17.63% 34.56% 31.92% 10.80%
Maryland 0.95% 5.55% 18.14% 32.81% 30.04% 11.13% 1.29%
Northwestern 6.05% 19.13% 32.26% 28.40% 11.60% 1.50%
Michigan State 31.46% 17.37% 4.94% 0.67% 0.03%
Minnesota 35.82% 14.05% 1.56%
Iowa 13.58% 2.52% 0.21% 1 in 16,700
Indiana 8.22% 1.49% 0.10%
Ohio State 2.46% 0.18%
Michigan 2.80% 0.38% 0.02%
Nebraska 0.17% 1 in 16,400
Illinois 0.12%
Penn State 0.21% 1 in 11,300
Rutgers

2017 BB Projections Wk 7 - .500 or Below

Team 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9
Team 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9
Wisconsin 1 in 995k
Purdue 1 in 182k 0.03%
Maryland 1 in 32,000 0.09%
Northwestern 1 in 53,600 0.07% 0.98%
Michigan State 0.21% 2.76% 13.26% 29.30%
Minnesota 1 in 140k 0.03% 0.40% 3.12% 13.46% 31.56%
Iowa 2.11% 14.42% 34.01% 33.15%
Indiana 1.47% 9.83% 24.98% 31.85% 22.06%
Ohio State 0.28% 3.87% 17.85% 33.55% 29.35% 12.46%
Michigan 1.16% 8.03% 21.98% 30.74% 24.02% 10.86%
Nebraska 4.56% 20.93% 35.19% 27.11% 10.12% 1.91%
Illinois 1.15% 8.31% 22.99% 31.92% 23.99% 9.65% 1.87%
Penn State 7.52% 25.42% 33.52% 22.78% 8.69% 1.86%
Rutgers 17.30% 37.77% 30.59% 11.80% 2.31% 0.22% 1 in 10,800 1 in 764k

This Week’s Games

All times ET.

Midweek

Maryland at Penn State (Tuesday, 6:00, BTN) - Maryland 69% (projected margin +4)
Illinois at Northwestern (Tuesday, 8:00, BTN) - Northwestern 89% (+11.5)
Michigan State at Michigan (Tuesday, 9:00, ESPN) - Michigan 68% (+4)
Rutgers at Ohio State (Wednesday, 7:00, BTN) - Ohio State 87% (+10)
Iowa at Minnesota (Wednesday, 9:00, BTN) - Minnesota 86% (+10)
Purdue at Indiana (Thursday, 7:00, ESPN2) - Purdue 60% (+2)
Wisconsin at Nebraska (Thursday, 9:00, BTN) - Wisconsin 85% (+9.5)

Weekend

Minnesota at Rutgers (Saturday, Noon, ESPNU) - Minnesota 78% (+7)
Penn State at Illinois (Saturday, 2:00, BTN) - Illinois 74% (+5.5)
Ohio State at Maryland (Saturday, 4:00, ESPN) - Maryland 86% (+9.5)
Iowa at Michigan State (Saturday, 6:00, BTN) - Michigan State 76% (+6.5)
Michigan at Indiana (Sunday, 1:00, CBS) - Indiana 73% (+5.5)
Northwestern at Wisconsin (Sunday, 6:30, BTN) - Wisconsin 81% (+8)

Idle: Nebraska, Purdue

MSU can survive a split this week, but a sweep would go a long way toward locking down a tournament spot and might be the finishing blow to Michigan’s chances as well. The Wolverines absolutely need at least a split and could really use a sweep, as their finishing schedule is rather difficult. Indiana has two big opportunities this week with home games against rival Purdue and fellow edge-of-the-bubble contender Michigan; they need at least one and probably both.