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Bad Betting Advice, Week 8

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MSU may be on a bye, but that doesn’t mean we all have the week off

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: OCT 12 Michigan State at Wisconsin Photo by Lawrence Iles/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

MSU may be taking the week off, but some of the rest of us still have work to do. Data never takes a vacation. So, I am back again with some more bad advice when it comes to the action of Week 8. The only thing that I can promise is that MSU is not going to cover or hit the over, but I can also promise that we won’t lose.

Since we don’t have anything better to do, if you are interesting in hate-watching the Michigan-Penn State game, that line opened at +7.5 for the Wolverines. For what it is worth, my model likes the Nittany Lions by 14.6 and projects a final score of around 31-17.

As is my tradition, here is the summary of my algorithms projected point differentials compared to the opening Vegas line, followed by the same chart using ESPN’s FPI

Based on these charts, here are my recommended bets for the week to come:

Oddly, my algorithm has 10 recommended bets, while the FPI also decided to take a bye week when it comes to making any sort of interesting prediction. That said, only two of my ten bets actually include Power 5 teams (Wisconsin and Missouri to cover). As for a 2-team parlay, the strongest signals this week are for FAU and Kent State, but I should also caution that I have not hit a parlay since Week 4. Maybe that means I am due.

As for upset picks, the following table summarizes those picks.

My algorithm and the FPI combined like 10 upsets this week, including Ole Miss over A&M, Syracuse over Pitt, BC over NC State, and K-State over TCU.

Finally, my weekly Monte Carlo simulation suggests that we will see a total of 14.6 ± 3.2 upsets, which is the largest number so far this year. 25 of the total 61 games this week have a line at or under 7 points, so it should be a fun and relaxing (for MSU fans) week.

That is all for now. Until next time, enjoy, and Go Green!