/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/65494407/1175970319.jpg.0.jpg)
MSU may be taking the week off, but some of the rest of us still have work to do. Data never takes a vacation. So, I am back again with some more bad advice when it comes to the action of Week 8. The only thing that I can promise is that MSU is not going to cover or hit the over, but I can also promise that we won’t lose.
Since we don’t have anything better to do, if you are interesting in hate-watching the Michigan-Penn State game, that line opened at +7.5 for the Wolverines. For what it is worth, my model likes the Nittany Lions by 14.6 and projects a final score of around 31-17.
As is my tradition, here is the summary of my algorithms projected point differentials compared to the opening Vegas line, followed by the same chart using ESPN’s FPI
:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19297381/2019_Week_8_Preview.jpg)
:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19297385/2019_Week_8_FPI_Preview.jpg)
Based on these charts, here are my recommended bets for the week to come:
:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19297389/2019_Week_8_Bet_Picks.jpg)
Oddly, my algorithm has 10 recommended bets, while the FPI also decided to take a bye week when it comes to making any sort of interesting prediction. That said, only two of my ten bets actually include Power 5 teams (Wisconsin and Missouri to cover). As for a 2-team parlay, the strongest signals this week are for FAU and Kent State, but I should also caution that I have not hit a parlay since Week 4. Maybe that means I am due.
As for upset picks, the following table summarizes those picks.
:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19297397/2019_Week_8_Upset_Picks.jpg)
My algorithm and the FPI combined like 10 upsets this week, including Ole Miss over A&M, Syracuse over Pitt, BC over NC State, and K-State over TCU.
Finally, my weekly Monte Carlo simulation suggests that we will see a total of 14.6 ± 3.2 upsets, which is the largest number so far this year. 25 of the total 61 games this week have a line at or under 7 points, so it should be a fun and relaxing (for MSU fans) week.
That is all for now. Until next time, enjoy, and Go Green!