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Bad Betting Advice, Week 10

MSU is on another bye, and it feel like the calm before the storm

NCAA Football: Penn State at Michigan State Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports

As October comes to a close and November begins, all in calm in the state of Michigan. In some areas Thursday night, snow started to fall, which was a weird contrast to the gaggles of children wearing Halloween costumes. In East Lansing, it is also calm (except for the Bachie news) as the team and coaching staff settle in for their 2nd week off in the past three. For the 2019 season, this week offers the last chance to rest up, heal up, and scheme up in order to try to make the best of what is left of a once promising season.

It is the calm before the storm.

While the devil on the should of many MSU fans is whispering, “MSU is not strong enough to withstand the storm,” you can bet that MSU’s coaching are challenging MSU’s player to be the storm. Which is going to wind up being correct? We will all have to wait another week to find out.

Around the county, it is a pretty calm week as well. Over 25% of the country is on a bye and the remaining action looks a bit tranquil. But, it still bears a bit of analysis

National Overview

As is my tradition, I have plotted the predictions from both my algorithm and the FPI vs. the opening Vegas line. Those plots are shown below:

Based on these charts, I can recommend the following bets:

My algorithm combined with the FPI only have 6 total bets to recommend. My suggested 2-team parlay would be Notre Dame and Coastal Carolina to both cover. The math likes Illinois and Tenn to cover also. Ironically, my algorithm likes Utah to cover vs. Washington, while the FPI data says the Huskies will upset the Utes.

As for upset picks, those are summarized below:

Once again I only have 6, most of which are in the Group of Five. The FPI also like Purdue to upset Nebraska and (as mentioned above) Washington over Utah. Overall, my Monte Carlo simulation expect 11.8 ± 2.7 upsets, which would be a very peaceful number after the last two weekends.

That is all for now. Enjoy the bye week everyone. Peace out.