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B1G Hoops Projections for 03/05 (Post Penn State)

MSU won; Maryland lost. So, where does that leave the odds?

By Paul Fanson (Dr. Green and White)
NCAA Basketball: Michigan State at Penn State Matthew OHaren-USA TODAY Sports

I usually hold the data until the full batch of mid-week games are finished, but the significance of MSU’s HUGE come from behind win at Penn State cannot be understated. So, how about a quick update (with no charts this time... sorry)? Let’s start with:

Odds to win / share the B1G Title:

  1. MSU = 73 percent
  2. Maryland = 72 percent
  3. Wisconsin = 45 percent
  4. Illinois = 17 percent

Both MSU and Maryland project to be about a four-point favorite on Senior Day, so both teams have a roughly 65 percent chance to win. My, have things changed over the past few days!

As for the BTT, MSU has now locked in a double bye. I just updated the tie-breakers and I can give good probabilities for seeding:

  • 1-seed: 51 percent
  • 2-seed: 32 percent
  • 3-seed: 14 percent
  • 4-seed: 3 percent

If MSU beat OSU, the odds for the 1-seed go up to ~70 percent.

MSU basically now will win any 1-1 tie-breaker with Maryland, as MSU has an equal or better record against Wisconsin, Penn State, Illinois, and Iowa. So, the only way that MSU would lose the one-seed is if:

  1. MSU end up in a three-way tie with Wisconsin and Maryland
  2. MSU winds up in a tie with just Wisconsin and Maryland is in third alone

In both cases, Wisconsin gets the one-seed, as they went 1-0 against the Twerps. That said, if all the favorites win, the updated projected standings (with tiebreakers) are:

  1. MSU (14-6)
  2. Maryland (14-6)
  3. Illinois (13-7)
  4. Wisconsin (13-7)
  5. Penn State (12-8)
  6. Iowa (11-9)
  7. Ohio State (11-9)
  8. Michigan (10-10)
  9. Purdue (10-10)
  10. Rutgers (10-10)
  11. Indiana (10-10)
  12. Minnesota (8-12)
  13. Northwestern (2-18)
  14. Nebraska (2-18)

Finally, if I use these final standing and simulate the Big Ten Tournament, I get:

  • 1. MSU = 23 percent
  • 2. Maryland = 17 percent
  • 7. Ohio State = 13 percent (again, Kenpom LOVES the Buckeyes...)
  • 4. Wisconsin = 9 percent
  • 3. Illinois = 8 percent
  • 8. Michigan = 8 percent
  • 6. Iowa = 7 percent
  • 5. Penn State = 6 percent
  • 9. Purdue = 3 percent
  • 11. Indiana = 3 percent
  • 12. Minnesota = 2 percent
  • 10. Rutgers = 2 percent
  • 13. Northwestern = LOL
  • 14. Nebraska = LOL

Finally, I should also point out that MSU just moved up to No. 6 in Kenpom, which is the historical cut-off for the majority of the eventual National Champions.

Sunday and the days after could be special in East Lansing, once again.

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